Dare I ask about the D word.......depreciation......

Dare I ask about the D word.......depreciation......

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Discussion

flemke

22,865 posts

237 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
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davek_964 said:
mb1 said:
flemke said:
540 and 570 on their way....

scratchchin
And you can check here how the 12C, and obviously the 650S, smoke both of them

I know which one I would rather drive between a simple sport and a super sport spin

teacher
True, however isn't the cost of a new 540 about the same as an early 12C? Admittedly you've then got options on top, but I'm guessing a lot of people will like the idea of new vs old for the same money. And let's face it, a 500+bhp car is still more than adequate for UK roads.
I agree.

Preliminary indications are that the 540 and 570 will be excellent cars. Some people prefer new just because it is new, not necessarily "better".

Then again, what is "better"? Practicality - 12C is the lesser car. Risk of maintenance issues - 12C the lesser car. Infotainment - we needn't go there!

Did the arrival of the Boxster enhance the value of 996s? Not that I saw, and today both early Boxsters and early 996s are cheap as chips.

I'm not suggesting that the arrival of the 540/570 will hammer 12C values, but some number of McLaren buyers get them because they want to be different.

Two-three years from now, there will be twice as many McLarens on the road as there are today. Five years from now there will be, what - five times as many?





PGNCerbera

2,934 posts

166 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
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sealtt said:
Always prepare for worst case scenario when it comes to dealer spreads.

I still somehow always underestimate these.
Agreed. If suggest the spread is a lot more than 10k. More like 15+

RamboLambo

4,843 posts

170 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
flemke said:
I agree.

Preliminary indications are that the 540 and 570 will be excellent cars. Some people prefer new just because it is new, not necessarily "better".

Then again, what is "better"? Practicality - 12C is the lesser car. Risk of maintenance issues - 12C the lesser car. Infotainment - we needn't go there!

Did the arrival of the Boxster enhance the value of 996s? Not that I saw, and today both early Boxsters and early 996s are cheap as chips.

I'm not suggesting that the arrival of the 540/570 will hammer 12C values, but some number of McLaren buyers get them because they want to be different.

Two-three years from now, there will be twice as many McLarens on the road as there are today. Five years from now there will be, what - five times as many?
Agree McLaren sales will continue to grow as the brand rapidly expands and demand with it.

What won't grow is the capped production of early McLaren cars like the 12C/650S.

With 3,500 12C and 2,500 650S worldwide ( that's Ferrari limited edition numbers ala Stradale/Scuderia ), its a bit like a blue cross sale - when they are gone they are gone.

Believe me these cars will become sought after in years to come. Whether they actually soar through the roof like some limited Ferrari's is one thing but I'm convinced at worst residuals will become strong medium/long term Its all in the timing

flemke

22,865 posts

237 months

Wednesday 2nd September 2015
quotequote all
RamboLambo said:
flemke said:
I agree.

Preliminary indications are that the 540 and 570 will be excellent cars. Some people prefer new just because it is new, not necessarily "better".

Then again, what is "better"? Practicality - 12C is the lesser car. Risk of maintenance issues - 12C the lesser car. Infotainment - we needn't go there!

Did the arrival of the Boxster enhance the value of 996s? Not that I saw, and today both early Boxsters and early 996s are cheap as chips.

I'm not suggesting that the arrival of the 540/570 will hammer 12C values, but some number of McLaren buyers get them because they want to be different.

Two-three years from now, there will be twice as many McLarens on the road as there are today. Five years from now there will be, what - five times as many?
Agree McLaren sales will continue to grow as the brand rapidly expands and demand with it.

What won't grow is the capped production of early McLaren cars like the 12C/650S.

With 3,500 12C and 2,500 650S worldwide ( that's Ferrari limited edition numbers ala Stradale/Scuderia ), its a bit like a blue cross sale - when they are gone they are gone.

Believe me these cars will become sought after in years to come. Whether they actually soar through the roof like some limited Ferrari's is one thing but I'm convinced at worst residuals will become strong medium/long term Its all in the timing
We shall see.

If I may say so, I think your position is something of a triumph of hope over experience.

The one thing in the 12C's favour is that it is a better looking car than its more plentiful successor. At the margin, that will help. At the same time, it contained a few flaws or shortcomings (subsequently addressed) that exposed the fact that it was McLaren's first attempt at a "mass-produced" road car. At the margin, that will hurt.

What you are predicting could happen, but I think the odds are against it.


Edited by flemke on Thursday 3rd September 07:51

anonymous-user

54 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
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I'm going to get my 540 in April, drive it as much as I can, keep it for as long as I can and just enjoy it smile

mb1

579 posts

256 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
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garyhun said:
I'm going to get my 540 in April, drive it as much as I can, keep it for as long as I can and just enjoy it smile
That's the spirit !

I am edging towards 20k miles in mine (=14k in 12 months of ownership !) driving

TISPKJ

3,649 posts

207 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
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mb1 said:
I am edging towards 20k miles in mine (=14k in 12 months of ownership !) driving
Eurospares will be after it shortly if you carry on like that smile

anonymous-user

54 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
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mb1 said:
I am edging towards 20k miles in mine (=14k in 12 months of ownership !) driving
No, THAT'S the spirit smile Well impressed.

TP321

1,478 posts

198 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
The 12c/650s is a great car. Period.

However, it doesn't have the X factor, and as such, the residuals are weak. Until the Mclaren badge has the same recognition as Ferrari, residuals will continue to suffer. Hats off to people who pay list, but it is crazy. The car below will have cost the original owner £185k...cry

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/m...

Very interested to see what will happen with the 675LT, when the new P14 makes its appearance.

TISPKJ

3,649 posts

207 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
Not really a fair example to pick from the bunch, its the cheapest example advertised on the market to date.
std car bar leather and paint and its that price due to the miles.

whilst I dont dissagree entirely with what you say above, a 458 wont be any different although they are currently a touch higher in price.

RamboLambo

4,843 posts

170 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
TP321 said:
The 12c/650s is a great car. Period.

However, it doesn't have the X factor, and as such, the residuals are weak. Until the Mclaren badge has the same recognition as Ferrari, residuals will continue to suffer. Hats off to people who pay list, but it is crazy. The car below will have cost the original owner £185k...cry

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/m...

Very interested to see what will happen with the 675LT, when the new P14 makes its appearance.

That's a very basic car and cheap but what a performance bargain at that price.
Seriously would anyone choose a F430 over a 12C. The 2 cars are poles apart and the McLaren is far superior in every aspect.

Ok its a basic car and nearly 4 years old and 25,000 miles so its lost circa £80k or £20k pa and £3 per mile. Seems about par for the course to me

The one thing about McLarens is they are built to be driven and not so mileage sensitive as Ferrari's so I guess £ per mile driven calculations probably favour the McLaren.

Have to say I've driven my 650S so much more than any other supercar I've owned ( 3,000 miles in 6 months as a non daily driver ) and will continue to do so.
Such an accomplished all round car its definitely a long term keeper so the mileage is totally irrelevant. Can't see anything replacing it but when the time is right I would like to add a 458 Speciale to compliment it

flemke

22,865 posts

237 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
RamboLambo said:
TP321 said:
The 12c/650s is a great car. Period.

However, it doesn't have the X factor, and as such, the residuals are weak. Until the Mclaren badge has the same recognition as Ferrari, residuals will continue to suffer. Hats off to people who pay list, but it is crazy. The car below will have cost the original owner £185k...cry

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/m...

Very interested to see what will happen with the 675LT, when the new P14 makes its appearance.

That's a very basic car and cheap but what a performance bargain at that price.
Seriously would anyone choose a F430 over a 12C. The 2 cars are poles apart and the McLaren is far superior in every aspect.
Wouldn't the point of comparison be the 458, which came out before the 12C and against the price of which the 12C's price was quite obviously pitched?

Prices of 458s seem to be roughly £15k higher than those of approximately comparable 12Cs. One could say that the 12C is thus much greater value-for-money. On the other hand, for the moment at least it does appear that the 12C has depreciated a meaningful amount more than its counterpart has done.

TP321

1,478 posts

198 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
TISPKJ said:
Not really a fair example to pick from the bunch, its the cheapest example advertised on the market to date.
std car bar leather and paint and its that price due to the miles.

whilst I dont dissagree entirely with what you say above, a 458 wont be any different although they are currently a touch higher in price.
I beg to differ on the spec...the car has Elite paint, upgraded wheels, parking sensors and full leather. The only notable absence is the carbon interior that would have been i think £2,300 in 2012.

Show me a 458 for this price - even a 2010 car.

No matter how you cut it, this is very bad for a supercar that should be super desirable and built in small numbers.

Bottom line is that they are not that desirable, and can only be sold on at a low price. They are highly admired by the public, but when it comes to putting your hand in your pocket, Ferrari always wins.

mb1

579 posts

256 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
and ?

The Ferrari always win because 85% of the buyers are looking for recognition and how it looks and do not care how it drives. It is the harsh reality.

The important thing is that we, the owners, like our choice and the best part is that we have had a great bargain along the way !

I do not understand how one can compare the 458 advertised value to that of the 12C/650. There are 100s of adverts for 458 and a 10s of adverts for 12C/650.
The likelihood is that there will be a lot more movement on price on a 458, where there will be none whatsoever on a £104k 12C.

TP321

1,478 posts

198 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
mb1 said:
and ?

The Ferrari always win because 85% of the buyers are looking for recognition and how it looks and do not care how it drives. It is the harsh reality.

The important thing is that we, the owners, like our choice and the best part is that we have had a great bargain along the way !

I do not understand how one can compare the 458 advertised value to that of the 12C/650. There are 100s of adverts for 458 and a 10s of adverts for 12C/650.
The likelihood is that there will be a lot more movement on price on a 458, where there will be none whatsoever on a £104k 12C.
..only the owners who bought the 12C second hand have had a bargain - because residuals are weak.

mb1

579 posts

256 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all

The residuals have been weak because your typical Ferrari buyer could not keep it for more than a year and rushed to sale it.

Those who will keep it will be ones winning.

Having said that, it will be interesting to see how the 540 and 570 hold their value over the next 3 years.

There is merit to think that the family of the 12C/650 and the new 540/570 will answer several parts of the market and individuals own criteria, which in effect should strengthen one another and contribute to cars holding their value pretty well. If not help the early 12C car finally realise their true value and potential due the under-estimated perceived value.

RamboLambo

4,843 posts

170 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
mb1 said:
and ?

The Ferrari always win because 85% of the buyers are looking for recognition and how it looks and do not care how it drives. It is the harsh reality.

The important thing is that we, the owners, like our choice and the best part is that we have had a great bargain along the way !

I do not understand how one can compare the 458 advertised value to that of the 12C/650. There are 100s of adverts for 458 and a 10s of adverts for 12C/650.
The likelihood is that there will be a lot more movement on price on a 458, where there will be none whatsoever on a £104k 12C.
MB I think You might steal it for £100k cash but I know what you mean. Yes 12C should be compared with 458 but there are F430's at £100k because the Ferrari market has gone mad and is way over valued IMHO. I sold a total spec ( racing seats, challenge carbon rear grill etc.... )2 owner F430 F1 Spider with 10k miles over 2 years ago at £85k and judging on todays figures that would be £100k.

As much as I loved it there is no way its in the same league as a 12C or 458. Not even close the improvement was massive on those 2 cars.

Early 458's without the 7 year servicing are a good £20k + over 12C so you pays your money and take your choice. When it comes to spiders though the McLaren is an easy winner with the carbon tub - no scuttle shake or compromise at all means it is the far superior convertible IMHO and worth £20k more not less than a Ferrari 458 Spider.
When I bought the 650S spider new I was offered an insane deal on a 3 month old 458 spider mega spec demo as they just wanted to off load it by year end - still chose the McLaren 650S and happily paid a premium for it because it was the superior car IMHO and I am a Ferrari serial owner/buyer and die hard.

The fact that these McLaren cars are massively undervalued now will not continue and you can already see the tide turning as the brand continually grows and conquests sales. Future values will be determined by future demand on a capped production car, simply supply & Demand. I don't think there is any question about the quality of the car.

The general publics reception to the Mclarens is also awesome in comparison to my past Ferrari's. Everyone just loves it and thinks its a £1m car.
I guess its the mystique and exclusivity of the McLaren brand


ferdi p

1,519 posts

172 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
TP321 said:
..only the owners who bought the 12C second hand have had a bargain - because residuals are weak.
Ferrari support there product & have always been clever keeping cars in there network thus controlling residuals...

In the early days McLaren did not support there customers & wouldn't even bid on cars they sold! This hit residuals badly IMO...

I believe McLaren have learnt from this & seem to be getting better however there's a long way to go to catch up with the Italians...

I have a 12C spider & its a way better product than the 458 equivalent but without the prancing horse on the front it will always be the less sought after product & thus cheaper...... For now........

mb1

579 posts

256 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
RamboLambo said:
Everyone just loves it and thinks its a £1m car.
don't say that, we will have 000's of Ferrari buyers wanting our cars wink

But you just have to count the thumps up against the 2 fingers you get in the two different brands to measure the specialness of the brand

TP321

1,478 posts

198 months

Thursday 3rd September 2015
quotequote all
mb1 said:
The residuals have been weak because your typical Ferrari buyer could not keep it for more than a year and rushed to sale it.

Those who will keep it will be ones winning.
...haha

So someone who paid £185k new in 2012, done 24000 miles in it so far - is he WINNING?? How when his car is only worth £104k?

Ferrari owners (new and second hand ones) must be laughing their branded socks off..