My conspiracy theory....
Discussion
Is that, the big car builders have viable leccy cars ready to sell but while they also build internal combustion engines they, and the oil companies, prefer to keep us paying (in my case) £130 a week in diesel purchases, they offer noddy cars and supercars no-one wants or can afford but the family 5 door with 350 mile range on a fast charge is kept locked away for now
Upatdawn said:
Is that, the big car builders have viable leccy cars ready to sell but while they also build internal combustion engines they, and the oil companies, prefer to keep us paying (in my case) £130 a week in diesel purchases, they offer noddy cars and supercars no-one wants or can afford but the family 5 door with 350 mile range on a fast charge is kept locked away for now
Yep, you are right. It's all a conspiracy.Tesla Model S isn't that far away from your range figure...
I develop hybrid and electrically powered vehicles for the major manufacturers. If "they" (it's always they isn't it....) had a low cost, production feasible EV they would be rushing it out to market right NOW, (because overnight they would corner the entire EV market in one swoop) and i think i would have heard about it!
Max_Torque said:
I develop hybrid and electrically powered vehicles for the major manufacturers. If "they" (it's always they isn't it....) had a low cost, production feasible EV they would be rushing it out to market right NOW, (because overnight they would corner the entire EV market in one swoop) and i think i would have heard about it!
You would say that, when the oil companies are paying you off!Good batteries are mega expensive, hence why most EV's are geared toward low range and/or high performance currently. It's changing though, and I'm really interested to see what Tesla come out with for their Model E which is supposed to be a lot more affordable
Max_Torque said:
I develop hybrid and electrically powered vehicles for the major manufacturers. If "they" (it's always they isn't it....) had a low cost, production feasible EV they would be rushing it out to market right NOW, (because overnight they would corner the entire EV market in one swoop) and i think i would have heard about it!
What would BMW do with the Hams Hall engine plant then?Energy storage is the trouble. We've not yet got much which has the energy density of LPG / Petrol / Diesel per unit mass.
Batteries can try but currently aren't close (plus have slow times to recharge etc). There's a big drive for better batteries; smartphones, laptops and UPS (plus off-grid etc) will be driving the development here. Big oil will struggle to block developments that, say, Sharp and Samsung might make to improve their rechargeable cells.
Batteries can try but currently aren't close (plus have slow times to recharge etc). There's a big drive for better batteries; smartphones, laptops and UPS (plus off-grid etc) will be driving the development here. Big oil will struggle to block developments that, say, Sharp and Samsung might make to improve their rechargeable cells.
If you do the maths on battery economics and weight by 2030 we'll all be driving EVs. We are just at the start of the revolution where early adopters pay a higher price to get the latest thing.
The long term average figures are 7% year on year cost reductions, and 8% year on year density increaes (ie weight reduction for the same number of kWh).
However it's not straight line year on year improvement... it comes in lumps and bumps, so you might see a new tech on anode coating 1 year which reduces it 2% then next year a new variation of battery chemsity giving 15%.
If you take Telsa as an example - to upgrade from 60kWh to 85kWh costs £7,000. Which works out about £280/kWh. That's consistent with some figures I've seen saying they are about $400/kWh (@1.6USD>GBP). Along with some figures for battery denisty of kWh/kg of 117.
From that you can project forward...
If that gets mashed when posted... today price for an 85kWh pack is £23,800 and it weighs 726kg.
In 2030 that will be £7,453 and 212kg. Or if all cars are made of carbon fibre by then, and 60kWh is enough, £5,261 and 150kg. Somehow I don't think a 535d or an A 3.0TDi Quattro will be geting cheaper over the same time frame.
The swtich could be a rapid flip, once more people get EVs and explain to friends and family the real cost of motoring and the convenience of not having to go queue at the pumps every few hundred miles. Or there may come a point that for the middle classes buying anything other than an EV for the second run around doesn't make economic sense. So EV sales would hit 20-25%. I think that would be around 2021 when a 30kWh pack for something like an i3 / Fiesta sized car would be around £5,000 and weigh 150kg.
Given that Tesla have already shown the willingness to offer upgrade Roadster battery packs, so they now get 400 mile range, if you buy an EV now.. you may never need to buy a new car. Just pay for the odd suspension bush failure, and bits of trim that fall off and a battery replacement every 10 years or so. However you'll be missing out on new tech we don't have yet. Like self driving cars. Though the i3 already does that to an extent!.
Of course - one thing not metioned in there... would people want 200kWh battery packs if they get cheaper? I doubt it. You would be spending 5x what you need on a day to day basis for maybe 1/2 dozen trips a year. I think Telsa have it in the pipeline with their 90 second battery swap. Would make more sense.
The long term average figures are 7% year on year cost reductions, and 8% year on year density increaes (ie weight reduction for the same number of kWh).
However it's not straight line year on year improvement... it comes in lumps and bumps, so you might see a new tech on anode coating 1 year which reduces it 2% then next year a new variation of battery chemsity giving 15%.
If you take Telsa as an example - to upgrade from 60kWh to 85kWh costs £7,000. Which works out about £280/kWh. That's consistent with some figures I've seen saying they are about $400/kWh (@1.6USD>GBP). Along with some figures for battery denisty of kWh/kg of 117.
From that you can project forward...
| Year | Price/kWh | -7.00%/yr | 30 kWh | 60 kWh | 85 kWh | Wh/Kg | +8.00%/yr | 30 kWh | 60 kWh | 85 kWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | £280.00 | £19.60 | £8,400 | £16,800 | £23,800 | 117 | 9.4 | 256 | 513 | 726 |
| 2015 | £260.40 | £18.23 | £7,812 | £15,624 | £22,134 | 126 | 10.1 | 237 | 475 | 673 |
| 2016 | £242.17 | £16.95 | £7,265 | £14,530 | £20,585 | 136 | 10.9 | 220 | 440 | 623 |
| 2017 | £225.22 | £15.77 | £6,757 | £13,513 | £19,144 | 147 | 11.8 | 204 | 407 | 577 |
| 2018 | £209.45 | £14.66 | £6,284 | £12,567 | £17,804 | 159 | 12.7 | 188 | 377 | 534 |
| 2019 | £194.79 | £13.64 | £5,844 | £11,688 | £16,557 | 172 | 13.8 | 175 | 349 | 494 |
| 2020 | £181.16 | £12.68 | £5,435 | £10,869 | £15,398 | 186 | 14.9 | 162 | 323 | 458 |
| 2021 | £168.48 | £11.79 | £5,054 | £10,109 | £14,320 | 201 | 16.0 | 150 | 299 | 424 |
| 2022 | £156.68 | £10.97 | £4,700 | £9,401 | £13,318 | 217 | 17.3 | 139 | 277 | 393 |
| 2023 | £145.72 | £10.20 | £4,371 | £8,743 | £12,386 | 234 | 18.7 | 128 | 257 | 363 |
| 2024 | £135.52 | £9.49 | £4,065 | £8,131 | £11,519 | 253 | 20.2 | 119 | 238 | 337 |
| 2025 | £126.03 | £8.82 | £3,781 | £7,562 | £10,712 | 273 | 21.8 | 110 | 220 | 312 |
| 2026 | £117.21 | £8.20 | £3,516 | £7,032 | £9,963 | 295 | 23.6 | 102 | 204 | 289 |
| 2027 | £109.00 | £7.63 | £3,270 | £6,540 | £9,265 | 318 | 25.5 | 94 | 189 | 267 |
| 2028 | £101.37 | £7.10 | £3,041 | £6,082 | £8,617 | 344 | 27.5 | 87 | 175 | 247 |
| 2029 | £94.28 | £6.60 | £2,828 | £5,657 | £8,013 | 371 | 29.7 | 81 | 162 | 229 |
| 2030 | £87.68 | £6.14 | £2,630 | £5,261 | £7,453 | 401 | 32.1 | 75 | 150 | 212 |
If that gets mashed when posted... today price for an 85kWh pack is £23,800 and it weighs 726kg.
In 2030 that will be £7,453 and 212kg. Or if all cars are made of carbon fibre by then, and 60kWh is enough, £5,261 and 150kg. Somehow I don't think a 535d or an A 3.0TDi Quattro will be geting cheaper over the same time frame.
The swtich could be a rapid flip, once more people get EVs and explain to friends and family the real cost of motoring and the convenience of not having to go queue at the pumps every few hundred miles. Or there may come a point that for the middle classes buying anything other than an EV for the second run around doesn't make economic sense. So EV sales would hit 20-25%. I think that would be around 2021 when a 30kWh pack for something like an i3 / Fiesta sized car would be around £5,000 and weigh 150kg.
Given that Tesla have already shown the willingness to offer upgrade Roadster battery packs, so they now get 400 mile range, if you buy an EV now.. you may never need to buy a new car. Just pay for the odd suspension bush failure, and bits of trim that fall off and a battery replacement every 10 years or so. However you'll be missing out on new tech we don't have yet. Like self driving cars. Though the i3 already does that to an extent!.
Of course - one thing not metioned in there... would people want 200kWh battery packs if they get cheaper? I doubt it. You would be spending 5x what you need on a day to day basis for maybe 1/2 dozen trips a year. I think Telsa have it in the pipeline with their 90 second battery swap. Would make more sense.
Edited by TransverseTight on Friday 5th September 00:05
Prawnboy said:
egomeister said:
Yep, you are right. It's all a conspiracy.
Tesla Model S isn't that far away from your range figure...
it's not exactly mondeo money though.Tesla Model S isn't that far away from your range figure...
Tesla Model S - 50k (for the lower end model)
Tesla Model 3 - Target price 30k
The proved the tech with the Roadster, they have produced a fantasic high end car in the same price bracket as its peers. They are now working on the model 3 which will be their "mondeo".
Upatdawn said:
Is that, the big car builders have viable leccy cars ready to sell but while they also build internal combustion engines they, and the oil companies, prefer to keep us paying (in my case) £130 a week in diesel purchases, they offer noddy cars and supercars no-one wants or can afford but the family 5 door with 350 mile range on a fast charge is kept locked away for now
It's the govt that gets most of your £130 a week on diesel, leccy motors only make sense as fuel is so expensive. I can't ever see them catching on in countries where fuel is considerbly cheaper than ours which means they have a limited market which is why many manufacturers haven't jumped on the bandwagon..Edited by MarshPhantom on Friday 5th September 08:20
MarshPhantom said:
Upatdawn said:
Is that, the big car builders have viable leccy cars ready to sell but while they also build internal combustion engines they, and the oil companies, prefer to keep us paying (in my case) £130 a week in diesel purchases, they offer noddy cars and supercars no-one wants or can afford but the family 5 door with 350 mile range on a fast charge is kept locked away for now
It's the govt that gets most of your £130 a week on diesel, leccy motors only make sense as fuel is so expensive. I can't ever see them catching on in countries where fuel is considerbly cheaper than ours which means they have a limited market which is why many manufacturers haven't jumped on the bandwagon..Edited by MarshPhantom on Friday 5th September 08:20
Upatdawn said:
id love one......cant get one for taxi use tho,
Maybe not a Tesla, but lots of Leafs (Leaves?) in active use as taxishttp://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/2014/5/8/nissan-le...
Edited by V8forweekends on Friday 5th September 11:40
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