Predicting the 3 year residual value on a BMW i3
Discussion
I'm thinking about buying an i3 as a family run about, as I have always kind of wanted an electric car. Also it would be perfect in my mind for the school run etc.
With a few options and the range extender it seems the price will be around £35k, which is a bit expensive for what in terms of space and performance would probably compare with a £25k new car.
When I buy a car I do give some thought to the lifetime ownership costs, so I need to decide on an estimate of the likely residual value on the i3 after 3 years with circa 20k miles.
I was told that the original bmw RV estimate was only to retain around 30-35% of the initial cost. However, I hear that in the US, bmw have increased the expected RV to circa 50%.
Plus demand seems to be stronger than expected for the i3 which should help RVs.
Has anyone here gone through a similar thought process? I would be very interested to hear what you expect the i3 to retain.
The RV estimate is quite important because, if the RV is around 50%, I think it could make sense for me to buy one. If the RV is only around 30%, it it getting too expensive imo for the kind of car that it is.
With a few options and the range extender it seems the price will be around £35k, which is a bit expensive for what in terms of space and performance would probably compare with a £25k new car.
When I buy a car I do give some thought to the lifetime ownership costs, so I need to decide on an estimate of the likely residual value on the i3 after 3 years with circa 20k miles.
I was told that the original bmw RV estimate was only to retain around 30-35% of the initial cost. However, I hear that in the US, bmw have increased the expected RV to circa 50%.
Plus demand seems to be stronger than expected for the i3 which should help RVs.
Has anyone here gone through a similar thought process? I would be very interested to hear what you expect the i3 to retain.
The RV estimate is quite important because, if the RV is around 50%, I think it could make sense for me to buy one. If the RV is only around 30%, it it getting too expensive imo for the kind of car that it is.
I think the problem is that, quite frankly, nobody yet knows the residuals for this sort of car, at this point in its life cycle!
Being somewhat new and unusual, there almost certainly will be effects on the residuals from a wide range of sources, such as the price of crude oil, if BMW release a new version, changes in taxation etc etc.
I'd do you sums at say 30%, and if it turns out to be 50% you can spend the extra money on a holiday ;-)
Being somewhat new and unusual, there almost certainly will be effects on the residuals from a wide range of sources, such as the price of crude oil, if BMW release a new version, changes in taxation etc etc.
I'd do you sums at say 30%, and if it turns out to be 50% you can spend the extra money on a holiday ;-)
I've seen a presentation by Glass's Guide on their xEV depreciation calcs, and the summary seemed to be even they didn't really know. Hefty discounting on new Leafs and iMievs not long after they hit the market massively muddied the waters IMO.
I'd guess you'll take the heftiest hits when the powertrain and battery warranty expire, and also if/when new models/tech become available.
I'd guess you'll take the heftiest hits when the powertrain and battery warranty expire, and also if/when new models/tech become available.
JPJPJP said:
I wouldn't buy an EV just now, I would lease / PCP one where the total cost of ownership over the period is known
If I bought one, I would be gambling on future values and I might end up a bit better off than I expected or a lot worse off than I hoped...
I did consider leasing an i3, but the finance companies are using a low RV, so the lease deals are comparatively expensive. And that is for base spec cars, before adding any options. If I bought one, I would be gambling on future values and I might end up a bit better off than I expected or a lot worse off than I hoped...
(The i3 is one of those cars which imo needs a few options to make it nice. These would make the lease costs very expensive over a 2 or 3 year lease.)
No-one really has a clue, and any prediction will be no better than guesswork at this stage. There just aren't any meaningful precedents. That's why the leasing companies are covering themselves with low numbers.
My personal baseless speculation is that they will do a lot better than the residuals currently implied by the leasing deals, but it's only a hunch.
My personal baseless speculation is that they will do a lot better than the residuals currently implied by the leasing deals, but it's only a hunch.
RVs are very high at the moment, but that's probably the result of demand exceeding supply. When lead times reduce the normal levels, and dealers start getting in some stock, who knows how the RVs will react. At the moment, even a one year old i3 will retail at only a very small discount over new.
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