So who is getting a Model 3?

[Mike_C]

Several people on here are mentioning Supercharger availability being a concern as sales of Tesla's grow, but there's a few points to consider before everyone gets their knickers fully twisted up:

1. Any journey in any Model 3 or Model S that is 150 miles round trip or less should not require any additional charging - you leave fully charged, and charge up when you're back home or at your destination. This will rely on people not Supercharging needlessly just because it is free.

2. There are a wide range of third-party chargers available; Ecotricity at nearly all motorway services, Chargemaster and POD Point, among others. These all provide decent charge rates (albeit not Supercharger quick), and will continue to improve in terms of reliability of service. In the end it will be no different to turning up at a petrol station to find out they've run out of petrol/diesel and are waiting for a delivery.

3. The Supercharger network is still in its infancy; Model S has only been around since 2012 in the US, or 2014 in the UK. That's barely 2 years. There is no questions that both the number of Supercharger locations, as well as the number of stalls at existing locations is going to expand significantly over the next few years, which help alleviate concerns of charge point availability. I imagine real time data will also be made available on the software, so you can choose whether to visit a Supercharger (based on number of free stalls), or visit a third-party station elsewhere.

4. 'Free electricity' is a bonus at the moment, both from Tesla Superchargers and some third party ones, however as EV replaces ICE you can fully expect the third part chargers to become chargeable, and then the Government taxing that too to replace the lost duty of petrol and diesel. So enjoy it whilst it lasts, but don't expect to have free electricity for life!!

[Mike_C]

FurtiveFreddy said:

Congrats!

Now, interestingly, your RN numbers begin '108' whereas mine begins with '107' and I reserved in store on the 31st, so I'm wondering if they are completely random or whether some part of it is sequential...

ETA lot's of speculation on the Tesla Motor Club Forum about the numbers.

Both my reservations were placed online at 3:30am, an hour before launch, so I would hazard a guess there is no sequential numbering as such, but who knows!

[x5x3]

Mike_C said:

FurtiveFreddy said:

Congrats!

Now, interestingly, your RN numbers begin '108' whereas mine begins with '107' and I reserved in store on the 31st, so I'm wondering if they are completely random or whether some part of it is sequential...

ETA lot's of speculation on the Tesla Motor Club Forum about the numbers.

Both my reservations were placed online at 3:30am, an hour before launch, so I would hazard a guess there is no sequential numbering as such, but who knows!

Can someone explain to me why it matters if the RN numbers are sequential or not?

It is clearly a Customer ID number and not a build slot/sequence.

There are many sites which explain (included the one mentioned above) that we will be allocated a build number at a later date.

[simonrockman]

Mike_C said:

4. 'Free electricity' is a bonus at the moment, both from Tesla Superchargers and some third party ones, however as EV replaces ICE you can fully expect the third part chargers to become chargeable, and then the Government taxing that too to replace the lost duty of petrol and diesel. So enjoy it whilst it lasts, but don't expect to have free electricity for life!!

Also expect more road pricing as the government sees revenue from petrol drop.

I see that Nvidia has announced a new graphics processor for the the Tesla P100 http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/04/06/nvidia_gtc...

Now a P100 Model 3. That would be interesting.

Simon

[FurtiveFreddy]

x5x3 said:

Can someone explain to me why it matters if the RN numbers are sequential or not?

It is clearly a Customer ID number and not a build slot/sequence.

There are many sites which explain (included the one mentioned above) that we will be allocated a build number at a later date.

[modeller]

simonrockman said:

Also expect more road pricing as the government sees revenue from petrol drop.

I see that Nvidia has announced a new graphics processor for the the Tesla P100 http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/04/06/nvidia_gtc...

Now a P100 Model 3. That would be interesting.

Simon

The Pascal Tesla P100 GPU is not related to the car (it's not even for graphics). Really confusing since I think Tesla do use a Nvidia GPU

[JonV8V]

Mike_C said:

JonV8V said:

Tesla is no different... I charge mine, it says 255 miles, I drive for 180 miles, it's empty.

I'm not sure why anybody would think tesla have are any better than any other car, if anything they're worse.. Dodgy 0-60 times, dodgy battery capacity, dodgy range. Anyone thinking they'll get 215 miles of useable range out of a model 3 needs to think again unless they drive at 45 miles an hour, in a straight line, at 15 deg c outside temperature, in the dry..

I'm not sure I agree with all of that Jon - the range thing (either rated or typical), is optimistic, having said that if you put a destination into the GPS and drive at the suggested wH/mile rate, then it is spot-on. So if it says you will arrive with 40% charge, you will. If you drive harder/faster than the wH/mile figure used for the typical range calculation, you get less. My issue is that their 'typical' range is not realistic enough, rather than not being accurate. It could be better, but it's certainly no worse than any other EV, or any worse than the claimed MPG vs real-world MPG of most ICE cars either for that matter!

Re: 0-60 times, I haven't seen these disputed widely; P90D L's seem to hit 0-60 in 2.8s pretty consistently.[/quote

There are three mileages - the one on the web site - for mine that's about 350 miles - not a chance

Then there's the 300 w/m range in the car - I've never averaged that other than short sections of driving in optimal conditions and that's usually been 50mlh average speed sections of motorways - for my car that would give about 250

And then there's what I would consider normal driving - say 80 on a motorway, city driving, stop start, roundabouts, cold battery, rain.. My w/m is nearer 360 or more giving a range under 200 miles.

Of course if you do what it tells you it's spot on, but drive at 60mph on a motorway is not why I bought the car. The trip graph neatly always is worse than the initial prediction.

[98elise]

Mike_C said:

p1stonhead said:

3?!

2x Model 3 reservations, plus my current Model S

When I ordered mine (at Bluewater) they asked how many? I looked surprised so she said someone had ordered 8 that morning!!!

Obviously bought to flip once delivery dates are known....but I thought orders were supposed to be limited.

[Mike_C]

98elise said:

When I ordered mine (at Bluewater) they asked how many? I looked surprised so she said someone had ordered 8 that morning!!!

Obviously bought to flip once delivery dates are known....but I thought orders were supposed to be limited.

Yeah it was limited to 2 per person I was told, so she may have been embellishing slightly with all the excitement! Or if someone was that keen they could order under separate email addresses I suppose...

[p1stonhead]

Mike_C said:

98elise said:

When I ordered mine (at Bluewater) they asked how many? I looked surprised so she said someone had ordered 8 that morning!!!

Obviously bought to flip once delivery dates are known....but I thought orders were supposed to be limited.

Yeah it was limited to 2 per person I was told, so she may have been embellishing slightly with all the excitement! Or if someone was that keen they could order under separate email addresses I suppose...

And reservations they were not transferable to anyone and couldnt be sold so if she did order 8 somehow, she better have a big driveway!

I guess she could take delivery and then sell though but thats a bit idiotic.

[chandrew]

Mike_C said:

2. There are a wide range of third-party chargers available; Ecotricity at nearly all motorway services, Chargemaster and POD Point, among others. These all provide decent charge rates (albeit not Supercharger quick), and will continue to improve in terms of reliability of service. In the end it will be no different to turning up at a petrol station to find out they've run out of petrol/diesel and are waiting for a delivery.

The CCS standard (the standard that most non-Asian manufacturers are using) has recently been set at 150Kw which is a bit faster than the Supercharger. They are now negotiating 350Kw. Charging will become faster, quite quickly.

Mike_C said:

3. The Supercharger network is still in its infancy; Model S has only been around since 2012 in the US, or 2014 in the UK. That's barely 2 years. There is no questions that both the number of Supercharger locations, as well as the number of stalls at existing locations is going to expand significantly over the next few years, which help alleviate concerns of charge point availability. I imagine real time data will also be made available on the software, so you can choose whether to visit a Supercharger (based on number of free stalls), or visit a third-party station elsewhere.

My i3 shows availability for many of the more advanced charging points. Some are also bookable (via an app)

Mike_C said:

4. 'Free electricity' is a bonus at the moment, both from Tesla Superchargers and some third party ones, however as EV replaces ICE you can fully expect the third part chargers to become chargeable, and then the Government taxing that too to replace the lost duty of petrol and diesel. So enjoy it whilst it lasts, but don't expect to have free electricity for life!!

I used one recently which I suspect is where pricing is heading. The charge was dependent on the connection type but the fast DC ones were charged at CHF 0.15/kWh + CHF0.09 per minute. It made charging more expensive than usual but I'm guessing that this price would mean a sustainable business model. However it does incentivise the owner to keep it running & for owners not to hog spaces.

The current DC charging are (I believe) about €25,000 each which is a fraction of the cost of a new petrol station - possibly even less than a pump. Cost continues to fall. I would imagine that planning permission is almost zero.

My guess is that we'll see many new entrants coming into the market as the volume of EVs on the road increases & some of these will be large with decent availability to capital (Electricity companies, companies that currently own petrol stations?). Some will be slower AC chargers, mostly at places where you might park for a few hours. These may continue to be free. On major transit routes they'll be DC. I would be surprised if we don't see them at all motor stops within 3 years in much of Europe.

My own view is that as charging speed & availability increases there will become a natural 'limit' on the amount of range you actually need in an EV. 200 miles feels about right.

[Tonsko]

Just had this email:

We're currently increasing our production plans to minimize the wait for your Model 3. In the meantime, if you have questions about your reservation or Model 3, you can find all the information you need here.

Still going to be late 2018/2019 for RHD methinks.

[simonrockman]

Mike_C said:

Yeah it was limited to 2 per person I was told, so she may have been embellishing slightly with all the excitement! Or if someone was that keen they could order under separate email addresses I suppose...

It's limited to two per person, or two per Tesla you own. So if you have four you could order eight.

Cars on order (say a Model X) but not delivered count to your allocation.

[MrOrange]

gangzoom said:

Just to be annoying.....

The Prius, Insight, and i8 aren't electric cars, they are mainly petrol cars that use an electric motor to help improve mpg.

Utter tosh. They might not be pure leccy cars (BEV) but half my i8 journeys are electric-only and the other half are electric with petrol assistance.

[Synchromesh]

simonrockman said:

I got to Brent Cross for opening time, with a queue of three people, 10:00 to find that they had opened at 8:00 and closed again. But I should still have a pretty early deposit. My friend will get priority as he already has three - one of each model.

Simon

Can you post up a copy of the piece about electric cars you had published in evo a while back?

[LarJammer]

I dont know if this point of view has been expressed yet..
How are people so convinced by tesla? They are promising a car with better range / performance than any mainstream manufacturer at a substantially cheaper price. This from a company that have yet to make a profit. And who are in the process of making the second biggest factory in the usa (with who's capital exactly?) yet over 100k people are willing to part with cash for an untested product available in about 3 years. I would be very cautious before parting with my money, even with all the whoopin' and hollerin' I saw on the launch video.
Maybe im pessimistic but i can see either it all going up in smoke or, more likely, i-robot is going to happen.

Edited by LarJammer on Saturday 9th April 14:34

[simonrockman]

Have you driven a Model S?

I was at Salon Prive looking at the DBX concept clay and said to another visitor "It's going to be electric". He instantly went for keen to disinterested. I challenged this by saying "so you've never driven a Tesla" and I was right, he hadn't.


While Apple is 90% bullst and 10% product, Tesla is a victim of it's bullst which is compensated for by the product.

Simon

[FurtiveFreddy]

I'm convinced because his other company can do this:

[98elise]

LarJammer said:

I dont know if this point of view has been expressed yet..
How are people so convinced by tesla? They are promising a car with better range / performance than any mainstream manufacturer at a substantially cheaper price. This from a company that have yet to make a profit. And who are in the process of making the second biggest factory in the usa (with who's capital exactly?) yet over 100k people are willing to part with cash for an untested product available in about 3 years. I would be very cautious before parting with my money, even with all the whoopin' and hollerin' I saw on the launch video.
Maybe im pessimistic but i can see either it all going up in smoke or, more likely, i-robot is going to happen.

Edited by LarJammer on Saturday 9th April 14:34

They make a profit on each car, but they are investing massive amounts of capital In growth. The model S has been around for 4-5 years now so their products are well tested. The model 3 looks like it will be an excellent product, at a good price. I love the fact its not an ICE car with a battery retrofitted. Its an EV from the ground up which is what I want.

Elon Musk is no idiot. He's also behind Space X and they are the only private company to have spacecraft going to the international space station. As somone posted above they have just sucessfuly tested a reusable rocket which can land back on earth. I trust him to deliver the product for the price he's stated.

Your numbers are wrong BTW. Its not 100k people, its 350k and the order books have been open a week.

[Mike_C]

MrOrange said:

Utter tosh. They might not be pure leccy cars (BEV) but half my i8 journeys are electric-only and the other half are electric with petrol assistance.

I've just had an i8 on test for the past 24 hours, and I've no idea how you can do any journeys on full electric? It will only do 14 miles of continuous driving as far as I could see, less in stop/start traffic (i.e. round town). Acceleration and top speed are massively limited, I just don't get it?