So who is getting a Model 3?

Author
Discussion

EddieSteadyGo

11,948 posts

203 months

Wednesday 23rd March 2016
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JonV8V said:
After a bit of discount, 35k gets you a 335d xdrive which can hit 60 in under 5 seconds, has 4 wheel drive and deliver 50 mpg. I doubt the model 3 will be any quicker. The 10k you save on purchase price buys a lot of diesel. The argument to me isn't about performance really on the model 3, it's more about being an ev with range.
335d is certainly a swift car in the real world.

But in terms of performance comparison, if you use the 0-100 mph benchmark, an e92 m3 is about 10 seconds.

A 335d x-drive would be circa 13 seconds.

A p90d takes around 8 seconds.

I would be expecting a sub 10 seconds performance from a dual motor model 3 which would be very good at the price point mentioned.

JonV8V

7,229 posts

124 months

Wednesday 23rd March 2016
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EddieSteadyGo said:
JonV8V said:
After a bit of discount, 35k gets you a 335d xdrive which can hit 60 in under 5 seconds, has 4 wheel drive and deliver 50 mpg. I doubt the model 3 will be any quicker. The 10k you save on purchase price buys a lot of diesel. The argument to me isn't about performance really on the model 3, it's more about being an ev with range.
335d is certainly a swift car in the real world.

But in terms of performance comparison, if you use the 0-100 mph benchmark, an e92 m3 is about 10 seconds.

A 335d x-drive would be circa 13 seconds.

A p90d takes around 8 seconds.

I would be expecting a sub 10 seconds performance from a dual motor model 3 which would be very good at the price point mentioned.
Not a chance unless they stick in the 90 battery. The performance is directly linked to the battery as the size determines max power delivery as well as range. That's why the 70 is slower and it's 1s slower than the 90 let alone the p cars

EddieSteadyGo

11,948 posts

203 months

Wednesday 23rd March 2016
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Well, I thought I had seen the P85 without dual motors makes 0 - 100 mph in just over 10 seconds.

I realise the acceleration is directly linked to the current the batteries can pass to the motors, but I would imagine this would be an ongoing area of development for Tesla.

Honestly, I would be a bit disappointed if the high spec version of the model 3 didn't make it in around 10s to 100 mph, but it will certainly be interesting to see what they ultimately bring to market.

FurtiveFreddy

8,577 posts

237 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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So, the launch is tomorrow (more like 4am Thursday for us in the UK), but I'm heading to Weybridge tomorrow morning to put my £1k down and hope it lives up to all the hype.

I figured it's worth a punt seeing as I'm an impatient fool and it might just turn out to be the historic automotive moment some people are hyping it up to be.

What I'm wondering is how long the queue is going to be when I get there (or will there be one at all?)

gangzoom

6,303 posts

215 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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Turn up for the 'experence' but if you just want to pre-order, do it on line. In either case the RHD market will be the last thing on Tesla's roll out plan. We woudlnt see the car hit UK shores till late 2018/early 2019. Given how small the RHD market is and Tesla's promised expansion capacity it's likely the whole UK pre-order list will be manfacutres and delivered within a few months (may be weeks) of RHD production starting.

Will be interesting to see just what the 3 will be like smile.

chandrew

979 posts

209 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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The 'order in store a day before online' has been done purely to ensure that there are queues outside dealers like the queues outside Apple stores when a new phone is launched. Expect lots of coverage this week.

teabelly

Original Poster:

164 posts

231 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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If there aren't queues then Tesla are going to look a bit silly...

Will be interested in the actual specs and what other manufacturers do in response. EVs need to be a lot cheaper and with a lot better range to have any realistic chance of reasonable take up.

FurtiveFreddy

8,577 posts

237 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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Well, we'll see. I'm passing anyway, so may as well drop in and see if there's any real excitement. Weybridge could do with a bit of excitement.

JohnnyMystery

6 posts

204 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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Well i'm passing en-route to business in Edinburgh so i'll be nipping in to Weybridge as well....might bump in to each other...

gangzoom

6,303 posts

215 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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teabelly said:
If there aren't queues then Tesla are going to look a bit silly...

Will be interested in the actual specs and what other manufacturers do in response. EVs need to be a lot cheaper and with a lot better range to have any realistic chance of reasonable take up.
The amount of 'hype' Musk has generated about the 3, despite not spending a single $ on advertising is amazing. Remember the only facts we know about the 3 is that it'll be smaller, slower, less range, and have less features than the S, despite the fact the S has been onsale since 2012, and the 3 isn't due for another 18months+. The price is obviously the killer, but by the time 3 gets to the UK there will be 5 year old Model S around, probably for less £ than the 3 per kWh.

BUT regardless the 3 is going to get stupid pre-order numbers in the US, it's a US company, darling of wallstreet and based in Silicon Valley, it's the eveything the American 'dream' should be - You can almost see the 'USA, USA' chants going on in the factory!!. Tesla will be struggling to fulfill US-preorders for the first 12 months of production. They certainly aren't going to look silly in any way or form. Which car manfacutre wouldn't want 100K+ of preorders for a car 2 years away from mass production??

I'm excited about the 3, but for us in the RHD market the cheapest/quickest way into an afforable, 200mile+ range EV will be a used Model S till aleast 2020.


Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 30th March 11:11


Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 30th March 11:12

Mike_C

984 posts

222 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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Well I'm putting my £1,000 deposit down for a Model 3, it's fully refundable and transferable so if they don't launch a 3 with enough range or that is quicker than my P85+ then I can always get it refunded or use it against another Model S. But if they do offer one with the right powertrain spec for my needs (wants) then at least I should get one sooner rather than later.

Model 3 in the UK will also coincide with 3 years of Model S ownership, where I'll have the option to use their guaranteed buy-back deal against the 3 if I wish. Chances are, I'll keep the S for myself and get the 3 for the missus to be honest, but we'll see.

I also have a hankering for a Roadster, but they are holding their value far too well at the moment... wink

JohnnyMystery

6 posts

204 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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yep i'm betting that the actual spec of the model 3, by time they start building uk ones will have changed...and i also expect that by time dec2018 comes around or esrly 2019 (when i expect we'll see them here) i'll have stashed enough cash to swap over to a decent used S series if the 3 is not looking like i expect.

I understand they don't want to trash S sales by bringing out a 3 that is essentially the same sort of thing only smaller so i expect they will underplay the three spec, then update the S...then when the 3 starts shipping it'll actually be upgraded to be more like current S spec...at least that is my hope. Anyway, £1000 refundable deposit is within my means so that's the plan...fingers and toes crossed!

JonV8V

7,229 posts

124 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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We don't actually know anything about the model 3. I'm not even sure the target price is anything other than suspicion.

Nobody is talking about X5 orders being cancelled for the model X so they've not nailed it on their last model. Not that it's here yet. Nor is it likely other than a few cars this year.

Tesla aren't even getting excited in the uk, I've just heard that at least I one store isn't opening early as some expected and is reluctant to take orders.

People need to remember that these cars will arrive further into the future than the model S started being delivered in the past.

As a refundable £1k punt I can see why some might, but FFS, queuing up at the door to place the first order!?

Mike_C

984 posts

222 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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JonV8V said:
We don't actually know anything about the model 3. I'm not even sure the target price is anything other than suspicion.

Nobody is talking about X5 orders being cancelled for the model X so they've not nailed it on their last model. Not that it's here yet. Nor is it likely other than a few cars this year.

Tesla aren't even getting excited in the uk, I've just heard that at least I one store isn't opening early as some expected and is reluctant to take orders.

People need to remember that these cars will arrive further into the future than the model S started being delivered in the past.

As a refundable £1k punt I can see why some might, but FFS, queuing up at the door to place the first order!?
That's not entirely true, to be fair:

- Elon Musk is on record saying Model 3 will be circa $35,000 (so around £30,000 by the time it gets to the UK) and has given a few other details along the way. I'm pretty sure he also confirmed it wouldn't have all the tech found in the S.
- I can't see how you can support the X5 vs. Model X "fact" however in the US at least Model X appears to be selling well already. I think Model X will be a slower start in the UK and rest of Europe as it is more controversial looking than the S, but it will get there.
- The Tesla stores I have been in touch with are both very excited about Model 3 and Model X, and apparently are getting a decent level of customer interest on both too

I do agree that queuing up outside for 2 days is nuts though, some people obviously have more time on their hands than I!!

JonV8V

7,229 posts

124 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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The details are still pretty light though and I suspect will be until the configurator comes along. Its one thing saying the car will start at 30k and can do up to 200 miles and be as quick as 4s to 60... and what you need to pay for anything. They're certainly not going to get away with a 4k wheel option on a 30k car!

The Model X point is that everyone bangs on about the Model S outselling the 7 series, S class and Audi A8 but the model X has had virtually no discussion about taking sales from its relatively large and lucrative market and is even less likely to now BMW have a hybrid X5 so all the company car owners can get their tax break.




Mike_C

984 posts

222 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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JonV8V said:
The details are still pretty light though and I suspect will be until the configurator comes along. Its one thing saying the car will start at 30k and can do up to 200 miles and be as quick as 4s to 60... and what you need to pay for anything. They're certainly not going to get away with a 4k wheel option on a 30k car!

The Model X point is that everyone bangs on about the Model S outselling the 7 series, S class and Audi A8 but the model X has had virtually no discussion about taking sales from its relatively large and lucrative market and is even less likely to now BMW have a hybrid X5 so all the company car owners can get their tax break.
I agree, and Elon has also said that a lot of details will be kept under wraps until much nearer production. I think that is so they can keep up-speccing Model S' in the meantime, so when the 3 is launched it will be equivalent(ish) to a current Model S in terms of technology. For instance, I'd never by a 3 without Autopilot now I've had it on my S, so they can't remove too much cool stuff...

I see your point about the X and that is very true. I get the feeling the X is a high-margin car, it's a decent chunk more than an S and comes with a fair few additional features (gullwing doors, self-opening drivers door, massive windscreen thing, etc.) but I don't see it taking off in the way the S has sales wise.

FurtiveFreddy

8,577 posts

237 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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In the same way I haven't and never will buy a 5 Series BMW, because I just don't need or want that size of car, I don't want an S, so a used one at a Model 3 price isn't going to interest me.

The Model 3, IF they get the spec. right, COULD be exactly what I want in an EV and for that reason I'm going to take the very small risk of putting my deposit down and waiting to see what happens over the next 12-18 months before I have to bite the bullet.

TBH, if they can get it to perform close to the P85D in terms of acceleration and range, then I'm good to go. I'm willing to accept compromises in other areas.

However, I'm not going to queue for longer than 10 mins tomorrow, so if it's like that I'll be on my way and pay the £1k online later. tongue out

gangzoom

6,303 posts

215 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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The X is massively production limited. Tesla aren't any where near fulfilling US pre-orders (20kish), let alone think about Europe. US journalists are only now getting hold of review cars, and unless your a reservation holder you still cannot even get access to the configrator. The X will out sell the S, just like how Porsche is now mainly a SUV manfacture, and LandRover sells x2-3 times more cars than Jaguar. The X actually have much lower margins than the S, due to its fancy doors/large windscreen.

The 3 is totally different concept. Right from the start Tesla have said the 3 is about been afforable. So no aluminium construction, no massive list of generous standard kit list. I suspect the base spec $35k car will be the equivalent poverty spec BMW 318i. We'll know soon enough, though we don't even still have a list price for the X in the UK, so who knows when we will find out the ture price of the 3.

Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 30th March 15:55

AnotherClarkey

3,596 posts

189 months

Wednesday 30th March 2016
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Some teaser images of something under a sheet in this article:

https://www.wired.de/collection/latest/der-chefdes...

Also note the model that Franz von Holzhausen is leaning on in the image a little way down.

Looks promising if legit.

Mike_C

984 posts

222 months

Thursday 31st March 2016
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gangzoom said:
The X actually have much lower margins than the S, due to its fancy doors/large windscreen.
I'd love to know how you know Tesla's profit margins, I'm sure they share that info so liberally...rolleyeswink

Edited by Mike_C on Thursday 31st March 10:01