Tesla Model 3 revealed
Discussion
FurtiveFreddy said:
Tuna said:
So far as I'm aware there's not a lot of special sauce in Tesla's cars (and Musk has opened the patents that they have generated). The motors and batteries are not dramatically innovative. All the evidence is that what Telsa has done that no other manufacturer has, is to maximise government grants and subsidies and dramatically scale up production to the point where economies of scale kick in. In that respect, they're not doing something that cannot be reproduced.
Equally, most of the major manufacturers and a lot of the independent engineering firms that support them have been experimenting with alternative fuels and engines for decades - from before the fuel crisis in the 70's to the current day. Gas turbines, multi fuel, hydrogen, electric, hybrid. Just because you haven't seen them on the forecourt doesn't mean they haven't been developed.
But here's the thing. For most of them, the incredible cheapness and ubiquity of petrol has made alternative fuels completely uneconomic. Why build a car that no-one wants to buy? However nearly every manufacturer knows that will change (peak oil has been predicted for years). It's just a question of when.
The advent of massive lithium ion battery production for electronic gizmos has changed the game. Telsa has taken full advantage of that and accelerated it. If you really think the major manufacturers are going to be unable to respond in the five years it's going to take Tesla to deliver on their initial orders of the Model 3, you're not paying attention. The limiting factor has been price, not technology for at least the last decade.
And if you don't believe me, re-read the stuff about the Chevrolet Bolt earlier in the thread. It's going to be available before the Telsa, pretty much matches it's specs and is price competitive. What did Chevrolet find so surprising about the Model 3? Not the technology, but the low price Telsa has achieved for the battery.
The Model 3 lead time seems to be going up all the time. Now it's 5 years!Equally, most of the major manufacturers and a lot of the independent engineering firms that support them have been experimenting with alternative fuels and engines for decades - from before the fuel crisis in the 70's to the current day. Gas turbines, multi fuel, hydrogen, electric, hybrid. Just because you haven't seen them on the forecourt doesn't mean they haven't been developed.
But here's the thing. For most of them, the incredible cheapness and ubiquity of petrol has made alternative fuels completely uneconomic. Why build a car that no-one wants to buy? However nearly every manufacturer knows that will change (peak oil has been predicted for years). It's just a question of when.
The advent of massive lithium ion battery production for electronic gizmos has changed the game. Telsa has taken full advantage of that and accelerated it. If you really think the major manufacturers are going to be unable to respond in the five years it's going to take Tesla to deliver on their initial orders of the Model 3, you're not paying attention. The limiting factor has been price, not technology for at least the last decade.
And if you don't believe me, re-read the stuff about the Chevrolet Bolt earlier in the thread. It's going to be available before the Telsa, pretty much matches it's specs and is price competitive. What did Chevrolet find so surprising about the Model 3? Not the technology, but the low price Telsa has achieved for the battery.
The reason why more people want to buy Teslas than anything else on offer currently is simple. They are more desirable.
The bolt may be available earlier but its a poor design. It looks average and the drivetrain is a compromised design. It will be blown away by tesla sales.
As you say Tesla have made EV's desireable. I don't want an ICE converted to an EV, I want something thats an ICE from the ground up. It also must come with some wow factor to get me to part with 30-35k.
Edited by 98elise on Sunday 1st May 08:19
I've come to the conclusion following this thread that flat earthers are alive and among us.
Lets recap the arguments against EV's from this thread:
Ev's are uneconomical, hard to charge and only work with massive govt subsidies.
Clean power generation is uneconomical, impractical and only works with massive govt subsidies.
Disruptive technological advances can't happen in the automotive industry, cars are big they are complicated.
As long as we can't drive 7 hours non stop EV's will never catch on.
Hence ICE's are the past, the present, and the future, long live the ICE!!!!
Lets recap the arguments against EV's from this thread:
Ev's are uneconomical, hard to charge and only work with massive govt subsidies.
Clean power generation is uneconomical, impractical and only works with massive govt subsidies.
Disruptive technological advances can't happen in the automotive industry, cars are big they are complicated.
As long as we can't drive 7 hours non stop EV's will never catch on.
Hence ICE's are the past, the present, and the future, long live the ICE!!!!
Edited by babatunde on Sunday 1st May 07:48
98elise said:
They are sheduled to start shipping next year, but given their history I would say early 2018. The is no way they are 5 years from starting.
The bolt may be available earlier but its a poor design. It looks average and the drivetrain is a compromised design. It will be blown away by tesla sales.
As you say Tesla have made EV's desireable. I don't want an ICE converted to an EV, I want something thats an ICE from the ground up. It also must come with some wow factor to get me to part with 30-35k.
The five years I mentioned is early 2018 for initial deliveries, plus a 'backlog' of 500,000 orders which is around twice their targeted annual output. That's going to take a while to ramp up to, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that if you place an order now, you're going to be waiting five years to see delivery. With the best will in the world, they're going to be spending most of that time just proving they can do what they say they can do.The bolt may be available earlier but its a poor design. It looks average and the drivetrain is a compromised design. It will be blown away by tesla sales.
As you say Tesla have made EV's desireable. I don't want an ICE converted to an EV, I want something thats an ICE from the ground up. It also must come with some wow factor to get me to part with 30-35k.
I think you're right that the Bolt will be outsold by the Tesla, but not on looks. In that video the Model 3 looks like a saloon car that I just couldn't get excited by. I'm also really not sure how many EV owners really care about the elegance of the drivetrain - this whole movement is a continuation of the transformation of cars into 'white goods'. You buy 'em, you use 'em, you plug 'em in and don't worry or care how they work. However, Tesla are the ones with the buzz so I suspect the Bolt will be completely overlooked despite being a car that many current EV owners would have been quite happy to own before the Model 3 was announced.
The point though was that someone here made the claim that major manufacturers were coming late to the EV party, that they couldn't catch up with Tesla and they had no experience in EV production. To me the Bolt shows that they're quite capable of producing EVs that match Tesla's output, even if they don't have quite the flair. It seems that there is plenty of time for the next generation of EVs to come from those 'arrogant' major manufacturers, and that knowing what the Model 3 offers, they will have time to come up with something that is competitive.
babatunde said:
I've come to the conclusion following this thread that flat earthers are alive and among us.
Lets recap the arguments against EV's from this thread:
Ev's are uneconomical, hard to charge and only work with massive govt subsidies.
Clean power generation is uneconomical, impractical and only works with massive govt subsidies.
Disruptive technological advances can't happen in the automotive industry, cars are big they are complicated.
As long as we can't drive 7 hours non stop EV's will never catch on.
I think the flat earthers are a tiny minority on this thread. The vast majority accept that EVs will become the mainstream choice. However, a lot of the discussion here is that it's going to take a lot longer and be a lot harder than the evangelists believe. The Model 3 isn't revolutionary, it's a natural evolution.Lets recap the arguments against EV's from this thread:
Ev's are uneconomical, hard to charge and only work with massive govt subsidies.
Clean power generation is uneconomical, impractical and only works with massive govt subsidies.
Disruptive technological advances can't happen in the automotive industry, cars are big they are complicated.
As long as we can't drive 7 hours non stop EV's will never catch on.
Equally, whilst the Model 3 is forcing the pace, we're not all going to be driving a Telsa and laughing at the ruins of the old manufacturers. We'll be driving VWs, Fords, Chevrolets, Porsches and Telsas - and quite possibly TVRs and a bunch of other niche manufacturers that spring up over the next few years.
My kids will be driving EVs. But their Dad will probably teach them how to change gears in an ICE car, just for the hell of it.
Tuna said:
98elise said:
.............
As you say Tesla have made EV's desireable. I don't want an ICE converted to an EV, I want something thats an ICE from the ground up. It also must come with some wow factor to get me to part with 30-35k.
.........As you say Tesla have made EV's desireable. I don't want an ICE converted to an EV, I want something thats an ICE from the ground up. It also must come with some wow factor to get me to part with 30-35k.
The point though was that someone here made the claim that major manufacturers were coming late to the EV party, that they couldn't catch up with Tesla and they had no experience in EV production. To me the Bolt shows that they're quite capable of producing EVs that match Tesla's output, even if they don't have quite the flair. It seems that there is plenty of time for the next generation of EVs to come from those 'arrogant' major manufacturers, and that knowing what the Model 3 offers, they will have time to come up with something that is competitive.
A short recap, back in the day we had the Ipod.... it was the first large scale successful attempt to get people to buy rather than rip music, back then we all carried a phone and a media player, the IPhone came alone and successfully combined those 2 functions and threw in a digital camera as well. The market changed completely, along came Samsung, HTC etc. Tesla I think will have the same effect (Gigafactory anyone), the barriers to entry into the car market will change if the EV takes off.
The product, development and manufacturing cycles will change, even the way cars are sold will, the direct selling ban in the USA will work against the traditional manufacturers, because the same strategies developed to work around those will be applicable to the rest of the world as well.
A successful Tesla will be disruptive, finger in the air 20 years from now EV will overtake ICE in passenger cars sales and of the top 10 current car manufacturers 5 or less will still be in the top 10.
However if still alive, I will still have a ICE motorcycle.
babatunde said:
Tuna said:
98elise said:
.............
As you say Tesla have made EV's desireable. I don't want an ICE converted to an EV, I want something thats an ICE from the ground up. It also must come with some wow factor to get me to part with 30-35k.
.........As you say Tesla have made EV's desireable. I don't want an ICE converted to an EV, I want something thats an ICE from the ground up. It also must come with some wow factor to get me to part with 30-35k.
The point though was that someone here made the claim that major manufacturers were coming late to the EV party, that they couldn't catch up with Tesla and they had no experience in EV production. To me the Bolt shows that they're quite capable of producing EVs that match Tesla's output, even if they don't have quite the flair. It seems that there is plenty of time for the next generation of EVs to come from those 'arrogant' major manufacturers, and that knowing what the Model 3 offers, they will have time to come up with something that is competitive.
A short recap, back in the day we had the Ipod.... it was the first large scale successful attempt to get people to buy rather than rip music, back then we all carried a phone and a media player, the IPhone came alone and successfully combined those 2 functions and threw in a digital camera as well. The market changed completely, along came Samsung, HTC etc. Tesla I think will have the same effect (Gigafactory anyone), the barriers to entry into the car market will change if the EV takes off.
The product, development and manufacturing cycles will change, even the way cars are sold will, the direct selling ban in the USA will work against the traditional manufacturers, because the same strategies developed to work around those will be applicable to the rest of the world as well.
A successful Tesla will be disruptive, finger in the air 20 years from now EV will overtake ICE in passenger cars sales and of the top 10 current car manufacturers 5 or less will still be in the top 10.
However if still alive, I will still have a ICE motorcycle.
George111 said:
Hey 'tunde . . . pass me those shades you're wearing, I'm in need of some rose tints in my life
Out of interest, can you outline a similar viewpoint of how the ICE will continue to globally dominate, against the current and developing instability of much of the world's oil production and increasingly harsh legislation against point-of-use vehicle emissions?deckster said:
George111 said:
Hey 'tunde . . . pass me those shades you're wearing, I'm in need of some rose tints in my life
Out of interest, can you outline a similar viewpoint of how the ICE will continue to globally dominate, against the current and developing instability of much of the world's oil production and increasingly harsh legislation against point-of-use vehicle emissions?babatunde said:
However if still alive, I will still have a ICE motorcycle.
I would almost be inclined to do it the other way around. Those Zero Motorcycles (Electric) are awesome on the acceleration and tip in nicely too. The big massive downside was no gearchange so it was more like a moped :-(98elise said:
As you say Tesla have made EV's desireable. I don't want an ICE converted to an EV, I want something thats an ICE from the ground up. It also must come with some wow factor to get me to part with 30-35k.
Last Friday I drove an EV for the 1st time, a Tesla S. Wow, I was very very impressed.Edited by 98elise on Sunday 1st May 08:19
Even before getting in the car the whole process was easy, relaxed, friendly and way better than dealing with any other car maker.
The car was very refined, fast, drove remarkably well (easily comparable to my 5 series), however what blew me away was the technology, for example;
Tesla's communicate with each other, if one raises the ride height to clear an obstacle this is communicated to others
Summon mode - how cool
Servicing - recommended every year but not essential
The constant upgrades to the car remotely were very impressive and clearly demonstrated that buying a Tesla is very different to other cars.
I was expecting to be impressed, but it was far far better than expected (lack of internal cabin storage was the big negative), I am now seriously considering one for my next vehicle.
George111 said:
deckster said:
George111 said:
Hey 'tunde . . . pass me those shades you're wearing, I'm in need of some rose tints in my life
Out of interest, can you outline a similar viewpoint of how the ICE will continue to globally dominate, against the current and developing instability of much of the world's oil production and increasingly harsh legislation against point-of-use vehicle emissions?otolith said:
Which issues do you have in mind?
Put aside the [thermal or financial] efficiency arguments and CO2 arguments, and air pollution arguments and have a think about what this means for all those ICE cars...http://www.energypost.eu/historic-moment-saudi-ara...
Once the Saudi's see off the unconventional oil who knows what will happen to prices. Maybe they will keep prices low until they Hit E on the tank. And by then they won't care. Kaching. They'll have a desert full of concentrating solar power and can flick the Vs at anyone else who didn't invest in alternative tech early enough.
It got me thinking about when a new performance car is release you don't get people chipping in Snidey comments like..
They are overpriced.
You can buy a Ford Focus for £16k. Who would pay £30k just to get to work 30 seconds earlier (if at all),
V6 turbos are too expensive to run compared to a NA four pot. Why would anyone pay more money for a car that burns more fuel just to do the same journey at the same speed as everyone else.
What regime do you think the fuel is going to come from.
Do you realise all the infrastructure that's required and how many people are employed to get the fuel to your forecourt.
So why do people feel the need to do it about electric cars? Do they feel threatened by it?
If it helps stop all grants, make electricity cost 15p a mile and add uncessary servicing costs. Because the point that all the can't, won't, shouldn't people are missing is that EVs are better to drive. It's as simple as that.
No not round a track, not on an extended 1,000 mile jaunt to the middle of France if you are the person who likes to leave the midlands at 8pm and arrive the following lunch time after an all night drive.
But for normal people doing normal driving routines they are much better suited.
Given some people like to spend in excess of £50k on a car not really useful for carrying 5 people and luggage and a dog, why don't those of you who don't like EVs just shut up and go and read another thread. I chose to buy an i3 (despite the fact that its a marmite car) as I test drove it and went... Flipping heck I Want one. I don't really give a stuff what it looks like, but the way it drive in normal traffic is what makes it. I could have bought a 1 year old Ford Focus for 1/3 of the price, so the grant is irrelevant. The running costs are irrelevant as the deprecation over 3 years is more than I'd ever save vs buying that Ford Focus.
Eventually they'll get cheaper and people who buy with economy in mind will head in the direction of EVs. But for now I'd be worried if I sell cars in the £25k and up sort of range as with Tesla going after that market, you can its possible they might do what they've done to the large premium car market in the USA. Yes as Telsa isn't as "luxurious" as a Mercedes S Class, but it costs as much and still outsells it and the next 2 cars in the sector combined. As for UK... Not enough data to go on.
They are overpriced.
You can buy a Ford Focus for £16k. Who would pay £30k just to get to work 30 seconds earlier (if at all),
V6 turbos are too expensive to run compared to a NA four pot. Why would anyone pay more money for a car that burns more fuel just to do the same journey at the same speed as everyone else.
What regime do you think the fuel is going to come from.
Do you realise all the infrastructure that's required and how many people are employed to get the fuel to your forecourt.
So why do people feel the need to do it about electric cars? Do they feel threatened by it?
If it helps stop all grants, make electricity cost 15p a mile and add uncessary servicing costs. Because the point that all the can't, won't, shouldn't people are missing is that EVs are better to drive. It's as simple as that.
No not round a track, not on an extended 1,000 mile jaunt to the middle of France if you are the person who likes to leave the midlands at 8pm and arrive the following lunch time after an all night drive.
But for normal people doing normal driving routines they are much better suited.
Given some people like to spend in excess of £50k on a car not really useful for carrying 5 people and luggage and a dog, why don't those of you who don't like EVs just shut up and go and read another thread. I chose to buy an i3 (despite the fact that its a marmite car) as I test drove it and went... Flipping heck I Want one. I don't really give a stuff what it looks like, but the way it drive in normal traffic is what makes it. I could have bought a 1 year old Ford Focus for 1/3 of the price, so the grant is irrelevant. The running costs are irrelevant as the deprecation over 3 years is more than I'd ever save vs buying that Ford Focus.
Eventually they'll get cheaper and people who buy with economy in mind will head in the direction of EVs. But for now I'd be worried if I sell cars in the £25k and up sort of range as with Tesla going after that market, you can its possible they might do what they've done to the large premium car market in the USA. Yes as Telsa isn't as "luxurious" as a Mercedes S Class, but it costs as much and still outsells it and the next 2 cars in the sector combined. As for UK... Not enough data to go on.
TransverseTight said:
why don't those of you who don't like EVs just shut up and go and read another thread
Sadly, again someone on Pistonheads trying to shutdown conversation just because they don't like it. On this thread we had some good back and forth conversation - ie the whole point of a forum.Demanding people leave when you don't like it is just silly.
You're right about the i3 though, great car - shame about the looks. BMW made a terrific start with the i3 and I applaud them for what they did. Maybe their next effort will be something really special, who knows. Maybe low sales will force them to reconsider EV's after all. Maybe they just developed it to make sure they met some quote so they could continue to sell lots of "normal cars"
The Saudi issue you mention is an interesting one, the rulers of that country know they are one step away from a deadly revolution and only their oil money and foreign backing that stopping it. Without oil - possible chaos, who knows.
Edited by Blaster72 on Monday 2nd May 05:45
deckster said:
George111 said:
deckster said:
George111 said:
Hey 'tunde . . . pass me those shades you're wearing, I'm in need of some rose tints in my life
Out of interest, can you outline a similar viewpoint of how the ICE will continue to globally dominate, against the current and developing instability of much of the world's oil production and increasingly harsh legislation against point-of-use vehicle emissions?Oil supply is stable - political stabiliser - check
Air travel relies on stable oil price and supply - check
Petrol engines are now very clean - check
Large array of manufacturers offering choice and competition - check
Fantastic fuel delivery network already in place - check
Army/Air Force and Navy need ICE - check
Police need ICE - check
ICE part of our culture and development - check
Millions of people employed worldwide in ICE/Vehicle and fuel industries - check
Political desire for stability means status quo ICE and oil - check
These are the reasons the ICE will be hard to eliminate. (Not why the current EVs are not perfect or even about electricity) Nothing here prevents a slow conversion to EVs but it will be slow, it's not going to be allowed to happen overnight, not even if it was technically possible. Daydreaming about 20 years or even 30 years is just that, a day dream. Conversion to EVs is not about Tessla or the technology - it's about politics and the repercussions of change.
Tessla I'm sure have some great products - nobody is denying that and electric motors provide what I like most about cars, huge acceleration - it's why I built a kit car powered by a motorbike engine with a supercharger on it and it's one reason I ride motorbikes, so I do understand why a model S could be exciting. But converting a whole nation to EV from ICE is not about the cars, it's about something so much greater and harder to change but so many people on this thread have refused to accept this.
Are you happy now ?
George111 said:
We have plenty of oil - check
Oil supply is stable - political stabiliser - check
Air travel relies on stable oil price and supply - check
Petrol engines are now very clean - check
Large array of manufacturers offering choice and competition - check
Fantastic fuel delivery network already in place - check
Army/Air Force and Navy need ICE - check
Police need ICE - check
ICE part of our culture and development - check
Millions of people employed worldwide in ICE/Vehicle and fuel industries - check
Political desire for stability means status quo ICE and oil - check
These are the reasons the ICE will be hard to eliminate. (Not why the current EVs are not perfect or even about electricity) Nothing here prevents a slow conversion to EVs but it will be slow, it's not going to be allowed to happen overnight, not even if it was technically possible. Daydreaming about 20 years or even 30 years is just that, a day dream. Conversion to EVs is not about Tessla or the technology - it's about politics and the repercussions of change.
Tessla I'm sure have some great products - nobody is denying that and electric motors provide what I like most about cars, huge acceleration - it's why I built a kit car powered by a motorbike engine with a supercharger on it and it's one reason I ride motorbikes, so I do understand why a model S could be exciting. But converting a whole nation to EV from ICE is not about the cars, it's about something so much greater and harder to change but so many people on this thread have refused to accept this.
Are you happy now ?
Yes, thank you. I think that we are all very much on the same page, although I have a slightly less bullish view on long-term availability of oil at a price that is palatable to consumers, about the stability of the oil-producing nations, and in particular about what 'very clean' means in the context of vehicle emissions. Where we really differ I think is that I see the societal implications - employment, the 'culture' of the ICE, the geopolitical landscape - as being in a continual state of flux, with a shift away from an oil-dominated world being merely the next chapter in the human race's story. 'Merely' being an entirely deliberately chosen word, as I believe these changes are much less far-reaching that those that were set in place by the development of mass personal transportation a century ago; fundamentally, I don't think that it is actually all that big of a deal.Oil supply is stable - political stabiliser - check
Air travel relies on stable oil price and supply - check
Petrol engines are now very clean - check
Large array of manufacturers offering choice and competition - check
Fantastic fuel delivery network already in place - check
Army/Air Force and Navy need ICE - check
Police need ICE - check
ICE part of our culture and development - check
Millions of people employed worldwide in ICE/Vehicle and fuel industries - check
Political desire for stability means status quo ICE and oil - check
These are the reasons the ICE will be hard to eliminate. (Not why the current EVs are not perfect or even about electricity) Nothing here prevents a slow conversion to EVs but it will be slow, it's not going to be allowed to happen overnight, not even if it was technically possible. Daydreaming about 20 years or even 30 years is just that, a day dream. Conversion to EVs is not about Tessla or the technology - it's about politics and the repercussions of change.
Tessla I'm sure have some great products - nobody is denying that and electric motors provide what I like most about cars, huge acceleration - it's why I built a kit car powered by a motorbike engine with a supercharger on it and it's one reason I ride motorbikes, so I do understand why a model S could be exciting. But converting a whole nation to EV from ICE is not about the cars, it's about something so much greater and harder to change but so many people on this thread have refused to accept this.
Are you happy now ?
I don't think anybody has said that EVs are going to dominate in the next five years - but there is little doubt that they, or a similar technology that we don't even know about, will do so in our children's lifetime. Things like supply chains, distribution networks and indeed global politics are going to be big factors in how hard that change is, and how long it will take, but that it will come is inevitable. Tesla is the first genuine mass-market implementation of pure EV technologies, but the key point is that it is the first, not the last, and not just a quirky play by an established player. I genuinely believe that this is the beginning of the end for the ICE as a personal transportation device.
TransverseTight said:
It got me thinking about when a new performance car is release you don't get people chipping in Snidey comments like..
<snip>
You've not been on the Lotus forums have you? <snip>
I think you're getting confused between slightly more open ended discussions about the uptake of EVs and actual criticism of the Model 3.
I'll agree that there are some 'flat earthers' on this thread, who'll never be convinced by EVs. There are also a few evangelists who'd gladly see ICE cars banned from the roads tomorrow. Most people seem to be fairly pragmatic, though there are disagreements about rate of uptake and challenges ahead. Is that a surprise when we're discussing such a radical transformation of our infrastructure?
At this stage, we don't really know much about the Model 3. It looks like a fairly standard Saloon, has a battery on the smaller side of Tesla's range, is promised to go 200 miles on a charge and cost around 30K. That's all pretty vague stuff, so there's bound to be speculation.
We do know that this is the point where mainstream EVs are becoming directly comparable with ICE equivalents. That is a huge deal. It's a good thing.
However, there is some question as to whether the Model 3 itself is evolutionary or revolutionary. I'd argue that it doesn't do anything 'new' - you can find most of it's autonomous features on a variety of ICE offerings, and though the interior is strikingly different to ICE vehicles, I personally feel that's as much about Tesla cutting it's cloth to suit it's purse as anything. But these are just personal opinions and when a new car gets announced, you're going to get them in spades. Check out the discussions on Porsche's move to four cylinder engines to see quite how angry some people can get.
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