Tesla Model 3 revealed
Discussion
TransverseTight said:
Regarding autonomous surely IR is the area to focus. Surroundings aren't usually hot, and therefore stay still. Things that are warm, like people and cars stick out like a sore thumb in IR. If you also get movement you know there's something to avoid. Visual is there to find the road, but even in IR tyres leave a heat print on the road... You see it even in the rain when watching police, camera action where the helicopter is chasing someone, Specifically noticeable when the run the camera in inverse... So hot is black and background is white.
The mobile eye system in the i3 is a bit basic, it's only VGA resolution, but it works, sort of. It's Achilles heel is early morning and late evening sun, just as it clears the horizon. It's will disengage when there's sun shining directly into the lens. What I I was trying to work out how with a single lens can they equate distance. Must use some clever geometry algorithms to work out angle to the vehicle in front in the vehicle plane. Eg. - it knows it's height above the road based on where it's fitted in the car, it knows the angle to the base of the car in front based on which pixels are detecting it - so it can derive the linear distance from the camera using trigonometry.
IR might be a struggle when there a lots of EV cars around with lower heat signatures than ICE vehicles... Also, the cameras are more expensive and complex than visible light cameras so car makers may not want to use that technology yet.The mobile eye system in the i3 is a bit basic, it's only VGA resolution, but it works, sort of. It's Achilles heel is early morning and late evening sun, just as it clears the horizon. It's will disengage when there's sun shining directly into the lens. What I I was trying to work out how with a single lens can they equate distance. Must use some clever geometry algorithms to work out angle to the vehicle in front in the vehicle plane. Eg. - it knows it's height above the road based on where it's fitted in the car, it knows the angle to the base of the car in front based on which pixels are detecting it - so it can derive the linear distance from the camera using trigonometry.
I'm sure the i3 must have other sensors to determine distance to objects. You can't measure distance with only one camera unless you have a accurate reference measurements to work on and the width of vehicles, the road, street furniture etc. aren't constants, so it can only make very rough guesses based on what it sees though one camera.
Blaster72 said:
WestyCarl said:
I think for 90% of people the current Model S range of 230+ miles is more than adequate.
What would be more useful is to increase the number of super changers around.
Longer range will surely attract many more people, those who don't have parking at their property for example. Being able to go 300 miles and just charge when parked up doing the weekly shop would be very appealing for many households.What would be more useful is to increase the number of super changers around.
I personally would love a range of 300 miles at worst but no EV can do that yet. Let's see what Tesla can do between now and Uk Model 3 launch.
I still think that rather than add weight and cost to the car, about 250 miles is optimum and focus on increasing the charger network. On the Tesla chargers 10 mins gives you 100 miles. That's barely enough time to stop and have a p*ss and you've got another 100 miles.
Yep I'd agree for long trips but to have a range of 300 would cover most people for a few days of normal driving or even a week or so.
For people who don't have a nice driveway to park on this could be very useful as they could chose to park and charge weekly whilst shopping. A lot of people in cities don't even have their own space which makes charging at home difficult.
It'll come I'm sure , I can already see all the arguments in families over who forgot to charge the car
. Same happens now with the petrol tank always empty until the family mug (usually the Dad) fills it up.
That is at least until work, kerbside and supermarket charging is readily available.
Some people live with the Leaf now and it's poor range but they're mostly weird types who actually enjoy visiting various charging stations. If the Tesla 3 is to be a real long term success I suspect a decent real world range will be a key part.
For people who don't have a nice driveway to park on this could be very useful as they could chose to park and charge weekly whilst shopping. A lot of people in cities don't even have their own space which makes charging at home difficult.
It'll come I'm sure , I can already see all the arguments in families over who forgot to charge the car
. Same happens now with the petrol tank always empty until the family mug (usually the Dad) fills it up.That is at least until work, kerbside and supermarket charging is readily available.
Some people live with the Leaf now and it's poor range but they're mostly weird types who actually enjoy visiting various charging stations. If the Tesla 3 is to be a real long term success I suspect a decent real world range will be a key part.
A report said:
Now a new study by two doctoral students at the school of Engineering and Applied Science at Columbia University has increased that figure, estimating that electric cars could meet as much as 95 percent of all daily driving needs of U.S. citizens.
Using data obtained from the Department of Transport’s 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), Garrett Fitzgerald and Rob van Haaren analyzed the travel data of survey participants, concluding that 95 percent of the 748,918 recorded single-trip journeys by car were under 30 miles.
More astonishingly, around 98 percent of all single-trip journeys were under 50 miles in length, with trips over 70 miles in length accounting for just one percent of all single-trip journeys.
The average single-trip distance? Just 5.95 miles. And while rural respondents naturally traveled further on average than their urban counterparts, 95 percent of all rural-based trips were still under 50 miles.
But as Fizgerald and van Haaren point out in their study, with limited public charging stations for electric cars, single-trip distances aren’t the best way to evaluate just how suitable electric cars are for the average consumer.
As a consequence, they turned attention to both average U.S. car commute distances, and total number of miles driven in a single day.
Of the 106,681 survey participants who drove to work every day in a car, 95 percent of them travelled less than 40 miles to work, with the average commute distance being 13.6 miles.
Because of how the study was conducted, 39 percent of cars owned by participating households in the 2009 NHTS were not driven on study days examining total mileage drive. But of the 179,848 cars examined that were used on what the study calls the Travel Day, 93 percent of them drove less than 100 miles.
The average daily drive total for urban-based cars was just 36.5 miles, while rural-based cars drove an average of 48.6 miles.
http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis.phpUsing data obtained from the Department of Transport’s 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), Garrett Fitzgerald and Rob van Haaren analyzed the travel data of survey participants, concluding that 95 percent of the 748,918 recorded single-trip journeys by car were under 30 miles.
More astonishingly, around 98 percent of all single-trip journeys were under 50 miles in length, with trips over 70 miles in length accounting for just one percent of all single-trip journeys.
The average single-trip distance? Just 5.95 miles. And while rural respondents naturally traveled further on average than their urban counterparts, 95 percent of all rural-based trips were still under 50 miles.
But as Fizgerald and van Haaren point out in their study, with limited public charging stations for electric cars, single-trip distances aren’t the best way to evaluate just how suitable electric cars are for the average consumer.
As a consequence, they turned attention to both average U.S. car commute distances, and total number of miles driven in a single day.
Of the 106,681 survey participants who drove to work every day in a car, 95 percent of them travelled less than 40 miles to work, with the average commute distance being 13.6 miles.
Because of how the study was conducted, 39 percent of cars owned by participating households in the 2009 NHTS were not driven on study days examining total mileage drive. But of the 179,848 cars examined that were used on what the study calls the Travel Day, 93 percent of them drove less than 100 miles.
The average daily drive total for urban-based cars was just 36.5 miles, while rural-based cars drove an average of 48.6 miles.
To be honest, I'd have been surprised if that wasn't the case (bit of a straw man argument there). If your commute is over an hour or so, your working day becomes quite impractical. Then the numbers look to be comprised of a longer commute with the overall average pulled down by school run and trips to the local shop. It does rather sound like their data gathering was a little bit weak though
It'd be interesting to see the equivalent numbers for the UK. I'd assume somewhere around half those averages. If you wanted to look at it from an environmental point of view, the trick would be to cut those values down by a useful amount.
Given the number of people working in the US, average commute and kWh/mile, you could work out the daytime load to service those vehicles, but I haven't got the energy to do dodgy maths on a Monday morning
It'd be interesting to see the equivalent numbers for the UK. I'd assume somewhere around half those averages. If you wanted to look at it from an environmental point of view, the trick would be to cut those values down by a useful amount.
Given the number of people working in the US, average commute and kWh/mile, you could work out the daytime load to service those vehicles, but I haven't got the energy to do dodgy maths on a Monday morning
Tuna said:
To be honest, I'd have been surprised if that wasn't the case (bit of a straw man argument there). If your commute is over an hour or so, your working day becomes quite impractical. Then the numbers look to be comprised of a longer commute with the overall average pulled down by school run and trips to the local shop. It does rather sound like their data gathering was a little bit weak though
It'd be interesting to see the equivalent numbers for the UK. I'd assume somewhere around half those averages. If you wanted to look at it from an environmental point of view, the trick would be to cut those values down by a useful amount.
Given the number of people working in the US, average commute and kWh/mile, you could work out the daytime load to service those vehicles, but I haven't got the energy to do dodgy maths on a Monday morning
UK average is 9k miles per year, so about 25 miles per day. Suddenly a 200-250 mile range doesn't look so bad for the average driver!It'd be interesting to see the equivalent numbers for the UK. I'd assume somewhere around half those averages. If you wanted to look at it from an environmental point of view, the trick would be to cut those values down by a useful amount.
Given the number of people working in the US, average commute and kWh/mile, you could work out the daytime load to service those vehicles, but I haven't got the energy to do dodgy maths on a Monday morning
RobDickinson said:
I will admit that people dont buy cars just for their average use.
You buy one to cope with all or almost all of your needs.
That 400+ mile trip to see relatives, or to the coast.
The tip run, the weekend away etc.
There does need to be a support network there for those times.
That's one of the big selling features for Tesla - the Supercharger network. Anyone else trying to seriously break into the same market is going to find it tough to compete with that. You buy one to cope with all or almost all of your needs.
That 400+ mile trip to see relatives, or to the coast.
The tip run, the weekend away etc.
There does need to be a support network there for those times.
RobDickinson said:
Honestly I've no idea how Chevy will get $145 when Tesla are ahead in scale , should be about 50pc of the entire world production.
Either way costs are heading down way faster than predicted
GM's batteries are provided by LG Chem, which seems to see electric vehicles as a market it can beat Samsung in. I'd guess GM got the price by guaranteeing enough orders to allow LG to fund expansion. In related news they've just announced a factory in Poland to supply European car makers - initial capacity of 230,000 packs per year. Which will make it LG's 2nd largest battery facility.Either way costs are heading down way faster than predicted
RobDickinson said:
I will admit that people dont buy cars just for their average use.
You buy one to cope with all or almost all of your needs.
That 400+ mile trip to see relatives, or to the coast.
The tip run, the weekend away etc.
There does need to be a support network there for those times.
Well as 25% of the population have two cars and EVs are probably initially going to sell to the middle class well off, I imagine that a lot of people will end up with an EV for the daily grind and an estate or something for distance trips and carrying rubbish to the tip You buy one to cope with all or almost all of your needs.
That 400+ mile trip to see relatives, or to the coast.
The tip run, the weekend away etc.
There does need to be a support network there for those times.
I'm still pretty cynical about the Supercharger network being an answer to long-distance travel - when we do a long slog to visit the in-laws, there are tens of thousands of people being pulled through the main motorway service stations that we stop at. Tesla averages six chargers at each of their stations, and at half an hour for a decent charge, that's less than 300 cars charged in a day. I wouldn't dream of doing a holiday getaway in an EV with that sort of support.
Generally it seems to me that a daily runaround charged at home is going to be the 'big use case', rather than trying to solve the large family uber-wagon thing.
Tuna said:
Well as 25% of the population have two cars and EVs are probably initially going to sell to the middle class well off, I imagine that a lot of people will end up with an EV for the daily grind and an estate or something for distance trips and carrying rubbish to the tip
Exactly how the EV is used in my house with a diesel estate for longer trips and load carrying. And some other cars just in case and because I like them.RobDickinson said:
I think before we get to the millions of EV's doing the long distance thing we'll be onto self driving fleet of autonomous cars as a service anyhow, you'll just swap vehicles whilst one charges
I can't imagine more of a nightmare than standing in a service station somewhere trying to unload your luggage, coats, scooters for the kids, wellies, in car entertainment etc. etc. etc. just to put it into another car.Tuna said:
I'm still pretty cynical about the Supercharger network being an answer to long-distance travel - when we do a long slog to visit the in-laws, there are tens of thousands of people being pulled through the main motorway service stations that we stop at. Tesla averages six chargers at each of their stations, and at half an hour for a decent charge, that's less than 300 cars charged in a day. I wouldn't dream of doing a holiday getaway in an EV with that sort of support.
I mentioned this during my test drive. Currently the Model S will plan a route taking in the most convenient chargers, however at the moment it cannot tell if the chargers are in use or planned to be in use. Turning up and finding a queue would be frustrating. However a future planned improvement is too include this in the software and warn or give drivers a choice. "There are four car's planning to arrive at the chargers, do you want to change route (or drive faster
)"For me the number of chargers is the limiting point for EV's. I think the cars (Tesla's) are great and have a good enough range, however I still have some doubts about the (current) charging network and usability.
Tuna said:
RobDickinson said:
I think before we get to the millions of EV's doing the long distance thing we'll be onto self driving fleet of autonomous cars as a service anyhow, you'll just swap vehicles whilst one charges
I can't imagine more of a nightmare than standing in a service station somewhere trying to unload your luggage, coats, scooters for the kids, wellies, in car entertainment etc. etc. etc. just to put it into another car.Taxi driving really does have little future as a job IMHO.
The sum of what has been discussed inevitably means the end of individual car ownership. People will merely pay a subscription and summon a carriage with their phone with the journey details, some algorithm dispatching the nearest car with sufficient charge, cars automatically returning to charging points whilst not in use.
It's the only practical implementation.
None of it will happen though, the age of cheap fossil fuels has just begun, the COP21 agreement is a farce, the cost reality of 'decarbonisation' is already biting hard, and TESLA is going out on a do or die strategy, I'd bet on die.
http://www.afr.com/technology/elon-musks-ambition-...
It's the only practical implementation.
None of it will happen though, the age of cheap fossil fuels has just begun, the COP21 agreement is a farce, the cost reality of 'decarbonisation' is already biting hard, and TESLA is going out on a do or die strategy, I'd bet on die.
http://www.afr.com/technology/elon-musks-ambition-...
Tuna said:
I'm still pretty cynical about the Supercharger network being an answer to long-distance travel - when we do a long slog to visit the in-laws, there are tens of thousands of people being pulled through the main motorway service stations that we stop at.
How many people actually fill up at a motorway petrol station?? In 15 years of driving I can count on one hand the number of time I actually used a motorway petrol station...Why on earth would I pay 5-10p/L more to fill up at a motorway petrol station when the local petrol stations near my house is so much cheaper?? I always use to fill up in town before any long trip. With an EV you can charge from home, which means you can potentially start every single day with a 'full' tank. Tesla are on the verge of announcing a 100kWh battery pack, that's 300 miles of real life range, in the UK I bet not many people need to drive more than 300 miles in one day (even on holiday). Even the cheaper cars are now getting close to 150 miles of real life range. Leaf/i3 both just had their battery pack size increased for no real increase in cost, eGolf is to follow soon.
Destination charging is much more important. Hotels/Holiday destinations need to provide access to overnight charging so that when people arrive they can plug-in and charge, and be ready for the next day??
gangzoom said:
With an EV you can charge from home
I can't. Neither can the other 70 or so homes who share my postcode. It's the same story for the identical building the other side of the green square. The converted period buildings in the same development have no provision for their residents to recharge any potential electric car purchase, that's another couple of hundred families who won't be able to make use of this technology. Not to mention the nearby twenty storey building with about four or five apartments per floor with zero recharging points per parking space. My daughter lives in London. She's on the top floor in one of three freshly built 24 storey apartment blocks. Guess how many parking spaces in the underground car park have recharging facilities? I'll give you a clue, it's fewer than one.
So unfortunately, we're still a long way from the blanket acceptance that "you can charge from home".
Impasse said:
I can't. Neither can the other 70 or so homes who share my postcode. It's the same story for the identical building the other side of the green square. The converted period buildings in the same development have no provision for their residents to recharge any potential electric car purchase, that's another couple of hundred families who won't be able to make use of this technology. Not to mention the nearby twenty storey building with about four or five apartments per floor with zero recharging points per parking space.
My daughter lives in London. She's on the top floor in one of three freshly built 24 storey apartment blocks. Guess how many parking spaces in the underground car park have recharging facilities? I'll give you a clue, it's fewer than one.
So unfortunately, we're still a long way from the blanket acceptance that "you can charge from home".
I wonder how much it would potentially cost to wire up each space, must be very easy if its underground.My daughter lives in London. She's on the top floor in one of three freshly built 24 storey apartment blocks. Guess how many parking spaces in the underground car park have recharging facilities? I'll give you a clue, it's fewer than one.
So unfortunately, we're still a long way from the blanket acceptance that "you can charge from home".
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