Tesla Model 3 revealed

[Atmospheric]

Knowing how Toyota operate they would have learnt a shed load in doing so.

[98elise]

gangzoom said:

Blaster72 said:

I wouldn't call it a joke, it's early days yet. I think it's great different solutions are being tried rather than being blinkered into a corner.

It's not been blinkered it's called physics. Storing a reactive gas at 700psi is never going to be easy. Also rember though lithium in battery's need extraction, fuel cell cars need platinum!! Finally producing hydrogen is even more inefficient than burning oil.

Do you own research into the tech and I'll be amazed if you don't come up with the same conclusions.

For a company that is otherwise quite logical, Toyota wasted a stupid amount of £££ chasing dead end tech.

Edited by gangzoom on Thursday 12th May 08:06

Honda has recently changed its stance on Hydrogen/EV's. It will now offer EV and hybrids in parallel with Hydrogen

https://transportevolved.com/2016/02/24/honda-ceo-...

As you say hydrogen is pointless. It just tries to fix the one perceived issue with EV's (refill time), while introducing a whole host of new problems coupled with being fantastically inefficient. If refilling time is a big issue then ICE, REX or Hybrid is what you need.

[WestyCarl]

AmitG said:

Atmospheric said:

The established are watching. In the meantime they're selling cars, judging sales of their hybrid and EV range and waiting.

I think it's the Japanese you'd need to watch here.

I agree. I sense that the Japanese are several steps ahead of everyone else on this whole thing, but I have nothing concrete to back this up.

I don't think the Japanese are great innovators they are too cautious. What they do is take existing technology and refine it.

In fact I don't think any of the established big car companies are capable of doing what Tesla is doing, they are too cautious (and have shareholders who are risk adverse). A lot of the big leaps have been done by an "outsider" company. Apple and the IPhone is a great example.

[Atmospheric]

WestyCarl said:

AmitG said:

Atmospheric said:

The established are watching. In the meantime they're selling cars, judging sales of their hybrid and EV range and waiting.

I think it's the Japanese you'd need to watch here.

I agree. I sense that the Japanese are several steps ahead of everyone else on this whole thing, but I have nothing concrete to back this up.

I don't think the Japanese are great innovators they are too cautious. What they do is take existing technology and refine it.

In fact I don't think any of the established big car companies are capable of doing what Tesla is doing, they are too cautious (and have shareholders who are risk adverse). A lot of the big leaps have been done by an "outsider" company. Apple and the IPhone is a great example.

As you may know Apple aren't a new company and have been making innovative products for decades - in fact they are an established player who have had unprecedented success in the past 10 or so years.

I absolutely do not agree that other companies are not capable of doing what Tesla can.

In my opinion Tesla are brilliant and I do want a Model S (Not the 3), but I'm aware that they will be swallowed up at some point - which will sort of be a shame. Never underestimate the established companies.

[Tuna]

WestyCarl said:

I don't think the Japanese are great innovators they are too cautious. What they do is take existing technology and refine it.

In fact I don't think any of the established big car companies are capable of doing what Tesla is doing, they are too cautious (and have shareholders who are risk adverse). A lot of the big leaps have been done by an "outsider" company. Apple and the IPhone is a great example.

Most of the big companies use smaller engineering consultancies for innovation - this is where the UK is still competitive, with guys working behind the scenes on all sorts of technology. The Tesla Roadster was put together by Lotus, things like F1 KERS systems are developed here, hybrid, multi-fuel and turbo chargers - the list is long. You're not going to see 'big bang' products that redesign everything from scratch from the big guys, but at the same time they tend not to screw up simple things like boot latches. Those big manufacturers have achieved huge steps in automotive technology - such as extensive use of aluminium in bodies - but often it's not noticed because it's applied to a model that looks a lot like the previous design. The hype around Tesla being an innovator here is misleading.

Probably the biggest competitor is going to come from China. They're catching up with Western manufacturers fast, and the speed of innovation out there is leagues ahead of the rest of the world. They also have a relatively untapped market, and huge pressures to solve pollution problems in their big cities. With a slightly flexible approach to IP, you couldn't ask for a better environment to encourage new technology to flourish.

Whilst Apple gets a lot of plaudits for the iPhone, behind the scenes it has been companies like Foxconn that have enabled these technologies to become ubiquitous. Until recently the Asian companies have been happy to stay invisible, creating this stuff and putting a Western company logo on the front. That's changing now and we're seeing the first flush of 'Chinese brand' phones being sold directly in the West. For the most part, they're as good as Apple or Motorola, with high quality design and materials - but often half the price. The guys who were cheap labour a couple of decades ago are now senior engineers in companies that have enormous experience in putting together high technology devices.

Edited by Tuna on Thursday 12th May 09:59

[Atmospheric]

Co-signed

[gangzoom]

gangzoom said:

It's not been blinkered it's called physics. Storing a reactive gas at 700psi is never going to be easy. Also rember though lithium in battery's need extraction, fuel cell cars need platinum!! Finally producing hydrogen is even more inefficient than burning oil.

Do you own research into the tech and I'll be amazed if you don't come up with the same conclusions.

For a company that is otherwise quite logical, Toyota wasted a stupid amount of £££ chasing dead end tech.

My bad, the hydrogen is actually stored at 700bar, so about 10,000PSI!!!!

I've been on the wrong end of a pedal bike inner-tube exploding when pumped up at 90PSI, not the most pleasant experience......Give the mass public access to volatile fuel stored at 10,000PSI, what could possibly go wrong .

[Leithen]

The origination of engineering innovation can get very difficult to pin down. Apple is a perfect case in point. They apparently test and explore a multitude of "new technology" for years before including it in any product. They patent some stuff and pay to use other stuff. What isn't widely understood is that when a new production technique is selected for mass production, they often invest, finance and frequently design the production tooling and machinery.

They have changed or disrupted markets by enabling mass production of screen technology etc and then selling it in big numbers. Tesla is positioned to do a similar trick with battery tech and quite possibly other areas of car production.

It remains to be seen whether they can continue to operate a closed end to end production, sales and service operation. They have a huge advantage starting from scratch, but car manufacturers have been trying to increase control of their product at point of sale and beyond for many years now too.

[TransverseTight]

Blaster72 said:

Does your business idea include rental properties or just owners? Genuinely interested.

Anyone - will PM you. Also anyone who wants to charge somewhere regularly that they don't own the property. Could be a business park, town centre etc.

[TransverseTight]

Mr GrimNasty said:

SolarCity shares crashing and burning babe, TESLA next? I'd bet.

Transverse still living in a fantasy world I see!

PS. The national grid had a Notification of Inadequate System Margin position on Monday, astonishing for the time of year.

Edited by Mr GrimNasty on Wednesday 11th May 17:51

I love the fact you've managed to try and link the failure of some large scale centralised generating plant in the UK to a distributed solar business that doesn't even operate in the UK.

I may be wrong on that, but my understanding is solar City install MW class PV farms in the USA and sell to US home owners.

If you removed all renewables off the grid there would have still been a supply issue. It takes at least 8 hours for a coal plant to start up, and a gas turbine an hour. The other option is spinning reserve - which means running a gas plant connected to a large fake load. Not exactly economical. Assuming we had never thought of wind or solar, in this instance there would have been about 6 or 7 more base load coal plants running, and there would have still been a supply shortage. The demand following gas turbines that were scheduled would still have been scheduled but unable to puick up the shortfall. The reality is the market did what's it's meant to - high usage operators were paid to shut down and expensive standby generators were fired up. Lights stayed on. Expensive as they start up quicker - but lose maintenance cycles as a result.

Battery storage on the other hand is instantaenous. Though currently almost none existant. It makes sense even with a coal powered grid to balance supply and demand. Otherwise you are running generating assets at part load which makes them less efficient. Coal drops off a clif at 50% throttle. Going from nearly 50% efficiency to under 30%.

Just trying not to mention reneables as I know it winds you up. Power engineering even without renewables requires some of these new advances like grid scale battery storage which Telsa is also working on - https://www.teslamotors.com/powerpack

[babatunde]

Tuna said:

....................

Probably the biggest competitor is going to come from China. They're catching up with Western manufacturers fast, and the speed of innovation out there is leagues ahead of the rest of the world. They also have a relatively untapped market, and huge pressures to solve pollution problems in their big cities. With a slightly flexible approach to IP, you couldn't ask for a better environment to encourage new technology to flourish.
............................

Edited by Tuna on Thursday 12th May 09:59

That I agree with you on, consumers I think forget how much manufacturing comes out of China, pick up anything electronic anywhere in the world, majority of parts were probably made in China. The car is heading down the route of being a big computer.
I expect within the next 5 years to see at least one major Chinese city ban IC cars.

[Mr Will]

AmitG said:

Atmospheric said:

The established are watching. In the meantime they're selling cars, judging sales of their hybrid and EV range and waiting.

I think it's the Japanese you'd need to watch here.

I agree. I sense that the Japanese are several steps ahead of everyone else on this whole thing, but I have nothing concrete to back this up.

Important to remember here that Japan has very strict laws that essentially forbid overnight on-street parking. That should play in to the hands of EV manufacturers in a big way.

[Mr Will]

babatunde said:

Tuna said:

....................

Probably the biggest competitor is going to come from China. They're catching up with Western manufacturers fast, and the speed of innovation out there is leagues ahead of the rest of the world. They also have a relatively untapped market, and huge pressures to solve pollution problems in their big cities. With a slightly flexible approach to IP, you couldn't ask for a better environment to encourage new technology to flourish.
............................

That I agree with you on, consumers I think forget how much manufacturing comes out of China, pick up anything electronic anywhere in the world, majority of parts were probably made in China. The car is heading down the route of being a big computer.
I expect within the next 5 years to see at least one major Chinese city ban IC cars.

Shenzhen already has the worlds largest fleet of electric taxis - locally manufactured by BVD. They aren't flash but they are everywhere in the city and seem to work well enough.

[WestyCarl]

Atmospheric said:

As you may know Apple aren't a new company and have been making innovative products for decades - in fact they are an established player who have had unprecedented success in the past 10 or so years.

I absolutely do not agree that other companies are not capable of doing what Tesla can.

In my opinion Tesla are brilliant and I do want a Model S (Not the 3), but I'm aware that they will be swallowed up at some point - which will sort of be a shame. Never underestimate the established companies.

Of course Apple have been around ages innovating into different area's - MP3 player, then phone and challenging the established products / makers. They could do this because they were led by a strong (maybe genius) leader. There are a lot of similarities with Tesla and Elon Musk.

In my experience of being on the motor industry it is far too risk adverse with too many layers of Management to take such risks. At some point the established makers will catch up, as per Samsung, HTC,etc.

[Ozzie Osmond]

WestyCarl said:

Apple .... could do this because they were led by a strong (maybe genius) leader. There are a lot of similarities with Tesla and Elon Musk.

In my experience of being on the motor industry it is far too risk adverse with too many layers of Management to take such risks.

Never forget Dany Bahar and his "five new models in five years". Sometime sit pays to be bit cautious.

[WestyCarl]

Ozzie Osmond said:

WestyCarl said:

Apple .... could do this because they were led by a strong (maybe genius) leader. There are a lot of similarities with Tesla and Elon Musk.

In my experience of being on the motor industry it is far too risk adverse with too many layers of Management to take such risks.

Never forget Dany Bahar and his "five new models in five years". Sometime sit pays to be bit cautious.

I agree, its not a criticism at all of the established makers just an observation.

[Blaster72]

TransverseTight said:

Blaster72 said:

Does your business idea include rental properties or just owners? Genuinely interested.

Anyone - will PM you. Also anyone who wants to charge somewhere regularly that they don't own the property. Could be a business park, town centre etc.

Thanks for the PM , interesting reading and could really work I think.

[Mr GrimNasty]

TransverseTight said:

Mr GrimNasty said:

SolarCity shares crashing and burning babe, TESLA next? I'd bet.

Transverse still living in a fantasy world I see!

PS. The national grid had a Notification of Inadequate System Margin position on Monday, astonishing for the time of year.

Edited by Mr GrimNasty on Wednesday 11th May 17:51

I love the fact you've managed to try and link the failure of some large scale centralised generating plant in the UK to a distributed solar business that doesn't even operate in the UK.

No I've not done that, that's you typically creating a point to argue about as a smokescreen.

BUT all these things are a result of misguided 'green' policies, and the adoption of the WRONG 'green' solutions, all over the world.

The UK problem was only a problem BECAUSE the windmills failed to generate expected capacity because they are intermittent and pointless, yet reliable capacity is being cut because it can't survive in a market perverted by subsidies for economically worthless 'green' energy. That reliable capacity then has to be bribed back via the capacity market auction further inflating our energy bills.

And obviously the increasingly low, dangerously low near future, lack of reliable energy generating capacity in the UK is not a suitable environment to be introducing electric cars.

You always get bogged down in figures and micro-thinking Transverse, and fail to step back and see the bigger picture and engage common sense.

Meanwhile TESLA has been a bit more honest about the 3, with its risks disclosures. It doesn't make good reading. Remember TESLA has never made a profit! I doubt we'll ever see a Model 3 delivered. If we do, they'll become the next DeLorean!

http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hilt...

Edited by Mr GrimNasty on Thursday 12th May 20:32

[98elise]

Mr GrimNasty said:

TransverseTight said:

Mr GrimNasty said:

SolarCity shares crashing and burning babe, TESLA next? I'd bet.

Transverse still living in a fantasy world I see!

PS. The national grid had a Notification of Inadequate System Margin position on Monday, astonishing for the time of year.

Edited by Mr GrimNasty on Wednesday 11th May 17:51

I love the fact you've managed to try and link the failure of some large scale centralised generating plant in the UK to a distributed solar business that doesn't even operate in the UK.

No I've not done that, that's you typically creating a point to argue about as a smokescreen.

BUT all these things are a result of misguided 'green' policies, and the adoption of the WRONG 'green' solutions, all over the world.

The UK problem failure is only a problem BECAUSE the windmills failed to generate expected capacity because they are intermittent and pointless, yet reliable capacity is being cut because it can't survive in a market perverted by subsidies for economically worthless 'green' energy. That reliable capacity then has to be bribed back via the capacity market auction further inflating our energy bills.

And obviously the increasingly low, dangerously low near future, lack of reliable energy generating capacity in the UK is not a suitable environment to be introducing electric cars.

You always get bogged down in figures and micro-thinking Transverse, and fail to step back and see the bigger picture and engage common sense.

Meanwhile TESLA has been a bit more honest about the 3, with it's risks disclosures. It doesn't make good reading. Remember TESLA has never made a profit! I doubt we'll ever see a Model 3 delivered. If we do, they'll become the next DeLorean!

http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hilt...

I'll bet you £1000 that the model 3 gets delivered (or as much as you want if you're happy to go big). Happy for any PH solicitors to hold the cash.

Companies with huge initial capital expenditure will never make money in the early years. I don't think you grasp the basics of business.

[FurtiveFreddy]

I'll add £1000 of my own to that bet.

http://electrek.co/2016/05/12/la-times-attack-tesl...

Edited by FurtiveFreddy on Thursday 12th May 21:47