Tesla Model 3 revealed
Discussion
gangzoom said:
It's not been blinkered it's called physics. Storing a reactive gas at 700psi is never going to be easy. Also rember though lithium in battery's need extraction, fuel cell cars need platinum!! Finally producing hydrogen is even more inefficient than burning oil.
Do you own research into the tech and I'll be amazed if you don't come up with the same conclusions.
For a company that is otherwise quite logical, Toyota wasted a stupid amount of £££ chasing dead end tech.
But this leaves me wondering. Toyota may make some odd looking cars, but they are not stupid. They are arguably the best automotive engineers on the planet. They are one of the world's biggest car companies. They constantly innovate, often against industry trends. They spend an awful lot of time thinking deeply about the future of transportation.Do you own research into the tech and I'll be amazed if you don't come up with the same conclusions.
For a company that is otherwise quite logical, Toyota wasted a stupid amount of £££ chasing dead end tech.
They've concluded that hydrogen is the answer, and have invested heavily in it - to the extent that you can now walk into a Toyota dealer and buy a hydrogen fuel cell car. Now, they could be catastrophically wrong, and Toyota could become the next Kodak. But surely, given their track record of calling it right, their stance can't be dismissed easily. They must have thought this through. I'd really like to hear their arguments.
RobDickinson said:
Hydrogen has so many problems.
Even if you solve them all its still less efficient than BEV's
Not sure what Toyota are smoking.
I can understand the attraction - a transportable fuel with an energy density comparable to hydrocarbons, but without any nasty pollution when it burns. As hydrogen is theoretically the most easily synthesised fuel, if you can crack the two ends of the equation (easy production, clean consumption) then you've knocked heavy batteries and complex distribution networks into touch. Read up on the hydrogen economy and you can see it goes beyond cars as a means of distributing and storing energy.Even if you solve them all its still less efficient than BEV's
Not sure what Toyota are smoking.
In general, if someone can crack clean production of a hydrocarbon-like fuel (ie. a transportable fuel that has a comparable energy density) from an energy source, BEVs would be hard pressed to respond. So far though, bio-fuels have been about as good as we've got, and they have other problems.
Tuna said:
In general, if someone can crack clean production of a hydrocarbon-like fuel (ie. a transportable fuel that has a comparable energy density) from an energy source, BEVs would be hard pressed to respond. So far though, bio-fuels have been about as good as we've got, and they have other problems.
Ok say we invented limitless clean electricity, fusion power plants blossom like spring flowers across the land.The energy required to turn water into hydrogen and oxygen, then store and transport the hydrogen, then turn it back into energy is less efficient than just using that energy from our power plant to charge BEVs in the first place.
I'm not so sure how 'hard pressed' BEV's would be in that situation.
edit - note this doesnt even touch on the difficulty an expense of the transport and storage of Hydrogen..
I read an article during the week which was making a case that Tesla will fail.
Basis is that they don't have the capacity to build the Model 3 orders that they've got and have no time to add it, and they can't spend the money they took as deposits because it is refundable in the event the car doesn't materialise. On top of that two of their senior management have left recently.
I believe they'll fail as a manufacturer because they aren't doing anything special or unique, and once GM and Ford (and others) have an equivalent the draw of an established, widespread dealer network and a manufacturer that understands how to make a car (Tesla are starting to get a reputation for poor quality) will see Tesla stagnate and get left behind.
Musk isn't a "car guy" he is a "tech guy". I expect he'll eventually sell Tesla, although given he doesn't patent anything I'm not sure how the company is worth anything.
Basis is that they don't have the capacity to build the Model 3 orders that they've got and have no time to add it, and they can't spend the money they took as deposits because it is refundable in the event the car doesn't materialise. On top of that two of their senior management have left recently.
I believe they'll fail as a manufacturer because they aren't doing anything special or unique, and once GM and Ford (and others) have an equivalent the draw of an established, widespread dealer network and a manufacturer that understands how to make a car (Tesla are starting to get a reputation for poor quality) will see Tesla stagnate and get left behind.
Musk isn't a "car guy" he is a "tech guy". I expect he'll eventually sell Tesla, although given he doesn't patent anything I'm not sure how the company is worth anything.
Dealer network is the least of the problem - Tesla have their Supercharger network which (at the moment anyway) no other manufacturer can compete with.
No other manufacturer is currently offering anything to compete with the Tesla S or X in terms of performance or range.
Even if the car side of Tesla's business were to fail, they've still got the massive lithium battery plant.
No other manufacturer is currently offering anything to compete with the Tesla S or X in terms of performance or range.
Even if the car side of Tesla's business were to fail, they've still got the massive lithium battery plant.
AmitG said:
But this leaves me wondering. Toyota may make some odd looking cars, but they are not stupid. They are arguably the best automotive engineers on the planet. They are one of the world's biggest car companies. They constantly innovate, often against industry trends. They spend an awful lot of time thinking deeply about the future of transportation.
They've concluded that hydrogen is the answer, and have invested heavily in it - to the extent that you can now walk into a Toyota dealer and buy a hydrogen fuel cell car. Now, they could be catastrophically wrong, and Toyota could become the next Kodak. But surely, given their track record of calling it right, their stance can't be dismissed easily. They must have thought this through. I'd really like to hear their arguments.
Nokia was blindsided by Apple and co.They've concluded that hydrogen is the answer, and have invested heavily in it - to the extent that you can now walk into a Toyota dealer and buy a hydrogen fuel cell car. Now, they could be catastrophically wrong, and Toyota could become the next Kodak. But surely, given their track record of calling it right, their stance can't be dismissed easily. They must have thought this through. I'd really like to hear their arguments.
Kodak pioneered the first digital camera but didn't persue the tech because they thought it would never catch on.
Don't underestimate the resistance to change that is inherent in all big companies. Tesla have shown the consumer demand is there for a reasonably priced 200 mile EV. Any manfacutres who still think battery EVs are a niche market is going to go the same way as Nokia and Kodak.
rscott said:
Dealer network is the least of the problem - Tesla have their Supercharger network which (at the moment anyway) no other manufacturer can compete with.
They don't have to. One deal with Shell or BP or a smaller player wanting to grow, and Superchargers would potentially be outnumbered and obsolete. rscott said:
No other manufacturer is currently offering anything to compete with the Tesla S or X in terms of performance or range.
The performance is standard for an EV, and the range is standard for an EV - it's what EVs do. The Model 3, on which the whole company is being bet, is matched in specs by the Bolt, which is going to be available at least a year before the first Teslas roll off the production line.rscott said:
Even if the car side of Tesla's business were to fail, they've still got the massive lithium battery plant.
Which all the other manufacturers (so far) are avoiding, preferring their current suppliers such as LG etc.Much like Apple, the thing that Tesla is doing different is *not* the technology, it's making a play to own the whole ecosystem. The revolutionary thing about the iPhone was that you could buy it in an Apple store and get sucked into iTunes - whereas Nokia et. al. had to deal with a fragmented business run by the network operators. I'll say this again because someone will probably jump down my throat: this doesn't mean that I think Tesla must fail or is a bad business, just that it is a huge gamble with a lot of uncertainty about it. If Apple announced their iCar tomorrow, what would happen to Model 3 deposits?
Jader1973 said:
I read an article during the week which was making a case that Tesla will fail.
Basis is that they don't have the capacity to build the Model 3 orders that they've got and have no time to add it, and they can't spend the money they took as deposits because it is refundable in the event the car doesn't materialise. On top of that two of their senior management have left recently.
I believe they'll fail as a manufacturer because they aren't doing anything special or unique, and once GM and Ford (and others) have an equivalent the draw of an established, widespread dealer network and a manufacturer that understands how to make a car (Tesla are starting to get a reputation for poor quality) will see Tesla stagnate and get left behind.
Musk isn't a "car guy" he is a "tech guy". I expect he'll eventually sell Tesla, although given he doesn't patent anything I'm not sure how the company is worth anything.
Of course they don't have the capcity to build the Model 3. Thats what they are building now. They are also bringing forward their plans for 500k cars per year from 2020 down to 2018. They have recieved double the orders expectedBasis is that they don't have the capacity to build the Model 3 orders that they've got and have no time to add it, and they can't spend the money they took as deposits because it is refundable in the event the car doesn't materialise. On top of that two of their senior management have left recently.
I believe they'll fail as a manufacturer because they aren't doing anything special or unique, and once GM and Ford (and others) have an equivalent the draw of an established, widespread dealer network and a manufacturer that understands how to make a car (Tesla are starting to get a reputation for poor quality) will see Tesla stagnate and get left behind.
Musk isn't a "car guy" he is a "tech guy". I expect he'll eventually sell Tesla, although given he doesn't patent anything I'm not sure how the company is worth anything.
GM have an equivalent (the bolt) and it will be on sale before the Model 3. Have a look and guess which one will sell more. I think espablished car companies will have a problem selling EV's initially. I don't want an electric mondeo, even though I've had mondeos for 2 decades.
I don't think Teslas are any less reliable that other manufacturers. In fact I believe other manufacturers are getting worse. Fords econoost engines seem to grenade after 30k miles, VW's timing chains snap, porsche bearing seals fail etc. Loads of regular car manufacturers seem to have serious reliability problems these days.
AmitG said:
Jader1973 said:
Musk isn't a "car guy" he is a "tech guy". I expect he'll eventually sell Tesla, although given he doesn't patent anything I'm not sure how the company is worth anything.
I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla was sold to GM in the near future.Once the 3 is delivered and selling, I'm not sure he has any plan for moving it on other than developing better batteries.
Atmospheric said:
That will happen. They may not be bought out at first, a manufacturer may buy a large stake in them.
My money would be on VAG.
my money would be on apple, they have been employing car engineers left right and centre, phone and tablet sales are near saturation so its going to be hard grow in those markets and they have $200 bill in cash not doing anything.My money would be on VAG.
Atmospheric said:
That will happen. They may not be bought out at first, a manufacturer may buy a large stake in them.
My money would be on VAG.
Where will VAG find the money to buy them? With the ongoing American compensation/buyback/fine fiasco there isn't much cash in the pot. My money would be on VAG.
And while VAG has got away scot-free in the EU with reputation unblemished, Tesla is an American company and the Americans are still kicking up a fuss over the emission test fraud. The US is hugely protectionist at the best of times, so when the "dieselgate liars" come knocking wanting to buy a US "crown jewel" ... probably not going to be nodded through.
I suspect the other poster may be closer with it being a sale to Apple. Apple haven't successfully innovated on anything since Jobs died. The Apple Watch is not really a blockbuster hit and the iPad Maxi and Pencil are just tiny increments to try and keep sales up, rather than whole new lines of business. It does not appear they have any ideas of where to go next, so buying a ready-made "Silicon Valley Success" would be sensible. Although Apple much prefer to sell products that cost $100 to make for $300+, so that would mean the Model 3 being sold at about $150,000 ...
Jader1973 said:
Musk isn't a "car guy" he is a "tech guy". I expect he'll eventually sell Tesla, although given he doesn't patent anything I'm not sure how the company is worth anything.
You don't necessarily need patents to be worth a huge amount.Take Foxconn - they manufacture all the iPhones, to Apple's specs, using chips from TSMC etc...
They may have some manufacturing patents I suppose but they are primarily an assembler.
Nothing wrong with that. They made what USD4bn in profit last year??
If people want to buy 500k Model 3s a year and he can make 10% EBIT margins off them - the company is worth a LOT.
(Not as much as the current market cap but still a VERY long way from nothing!)
Tuna said:
Which all the other manufacturers (so far) are avoiding, preferring their current suppliers such as LG etc.
Much like Apple, the thing that Tesla is doing different is *not* the technology, it's making a play to own the whole ecosystem. The revolutionary thing about the iPhone was that you could buy it in an Apple store and get sucked into iTunes - whereas Nokia et. al. had to deal with a fragmented business run by the network operators. I'll say this again because someone will probably jump down my throat: this doesn't mean that I think Tesla must fail or is a bad business, just that it is a huge gamble with a lot of uncertainty about it. If Apple announced their iCar tomorrow, what would happen to Model 3 deposits?
Really, I remember the whole iPhone excitement is that is was different to the competition. The first phone with a touch screen and internet interface that worked, unlike previous window's clumsy attempts.Much like Apple, the thing that Tesla is doing different is *not* the technology, it's making a play to own the whole ecosystem. The revolutionary thing about the iPhone was that you could buy it in an Apple store and get sucked into iTunes - whereas Nokia et. al. had to deal with a fragmented business run by the network operators. I'll say this again because someone will probably jump down my throat: this doesn't mean that I think Tesla must fail or is a bad business, just that it is a huge gamble with a lot of uncertainty about it. If Apple announced their iCar tomorrow, what would happen to Model 3 deposits?
Tuna said:
The revolutionary thing about the iPhone was that you could buy it in an Apple store and get sucked into iTunes - whereas Nokia et. al. had to deal with a fragmented business run by the network operators.
Have to disagree 100%. Before the iPhone came along I had in my pockets:
The iPhone did the job all 3, that's why I ended with an iPhone. iTunes integration is probably the worst thing about the iPhone. But as companies get bigger they can easily loss their innovative edge.
I'm current awaiting the arrival of my S7 which has replaced my iPhone, and rather excited about the Oclus VR gear that works with the S7.
WestyCarl said:
Really, I remember the whole iPhone excitement is that is was different to the competition. The first phone with a touch screen and internet interface that worked, unlike previous window's clumsy attempts.
It took HTC a year to bring out a competitor product and Samsung nearly two years IIRC.It was only after a couple more iterations (and in particular the success of the iPad) that people realised what a ball ache it was to shift out of the iTunes ecosystem and hence that Apple had rather neatly created customers for life, rather than just "customers until Samsung brings out something better..."
And in fact with the advent of streaming music and Netflix, the value of the ecosystem has been seriously diminished because now I don't care if I "lose" all my music and videos to Apple - I can pay £15 a month and get way more!
Musk won't be selling Tesla any time soon. It's far too early in EV development to exit.
They have built a strong platform with great brand awareness and an unique sales, service and charging structure. They face fundamental engineering challenges that all car manufacturers share. Their particular challenge will be ramping up production whilst maintaining high levels of reliability and quality.
Despite reliability issues and delays with both of their current models, especially the Model X, they have managed to retain exceptionally high customer satisfaction.
Musk is a tech guy, but he's also driven by challenges. The Model 3 will be delayed and there will be plenty of bad press in the meantime, but he'll get it out the door. But he's not going to run out of cash and his customer base is only going to grow.
Amongst the comparisons with Apple, it's the Apple Stores that are perhaps the most relevant. Dismissed as a guaranteed failure when they originally launched and still undervalued by analysts, they enable Apple to retain great customer involvement and satisfaction whilst exerting control over their products. Whilst other brands rely on the success of individual products sold through third parties, the stores produce cross platform sales and customer retention that most businesses would kill for.
Almost as if he was once an unfortunate Arnold Clark customer, Musk understands the advantages of owning the whole sales and service chain. If he can grow it alongside Model X and Model 3 sales, he'll be the envy of most car manufacturers. Then he will be able to increasingly chase margin over sales as competing manufacturers flood the market with their equivalents, but are stuck with their established sales and service channels.
Just like Apple.
They have built a strong platform with great brand awareness and an unique sales, service and charging structure. They face fundamental engineering challenges that all car manufacturers share. Their particular challenge will be ramping up production whilst maintaining high levels of reliability and quality.
Despite reliability issues and delays with both of their current models, especially the Model X, they have managed to retain exceptionally high customer satisfaction.
Musk is a tech guy, but he's also driven by challenges. The Model 3 will be delayed and there will be plenty of bad press in the meantime, but he'll get it out the door. But he's not going to run out of cash and his customer base is only going to grow.
Amongst the comparisons with Apple, it's the Apple Stores that are perhaps the most relevant. Dismissed as a guaranteed failure when they originally launched and still undervalued by analysts, they enable Apple to retain great customer involvement and satisfaction whilst exerting control over their products. Whilst other brands rely on the success of individual products sold through third parties, the stores produce cross platform sales and customer retention that most businesses would kill for.
Almost as if he was once an unfortunate Arnold Clark customer, Musk understands the advantages of owning the whole sales and service chain. If he can grow it alongside Model X and Model 3 sales, he'll be the envy of most car manufacturers. Then he will be able to increasingly chase margin over sales as competing manufacturers flood the market with their equivalents, but are stuck with their established sales and service channels.
Just like Apple.
walm said:
WestyCarl said:
Really, I remember the whole iPhone excitement is that is was different to the competition. The first phone with a touch screen and internet interface that worked, unlike previous window's clumsy attempts.
It took HTC a year to bring out a competitor product and Samsung nearly two years IIRC.It was only after a couple more iterations (and in particular the success of the iPad) that people realised what a ball ache it was to shift out of the iTunes ecosystem and hence that Apple had rather neatly created customers for life, rather than just "customers until Samsung brings out something better..."
And in fact with the advent of streaming music and Netflix, the value of the ecosystem has been seriously diminished because now I don't care if I "lose" all my music and videos to Apple - I can pay £15 a month and get way more!
I remember a year before the iPhone (with it's amazingly rubbish 2G GPRS internet connection) I was walking around with a fast 3G mobile. Okay, I only got 3G signal in a few places, but it blew the first iPhone's "internet" out of the water.
Memory is a moveable feast, it is worth remembering that Apple is very good at rewriting history and people forgot what came before. [Oh and right now, I have an iPhone in my pocket, so this is not an anti-Apple diatribe, before you pull that card]
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