Tesla Model 3 revealed

[Pommygranite]

s3fella said:

With demand like that, they will never deliver them. And then delivered cars will be up for sale for £50k

If they can deliver them, it is the end of electric car use as we know it. BY that I mean no one will be able to get them charged up, parked for free, currently free charge points will become chargeable, and the one or two charging points at work that companies put in to be seen to be good and green,will be fought for and the cause of huge rows.

As for the screen on the dash....that has to be a joke. staring across to the middle of the car to see your speed is like a mini from the 60s.

And the front end......like they designed a grill then did it in with bodyfiller is hilariously bad!

I like the roof though.

But I think we will have HS2 before they get the sort of numbers delivered to customers. And have them viable

My you're a cynical chap.

[Fittster]

Are Telsa actually making a profit?

[speedking31]

I thought the supercharger wouldn't work off a 13A plug and so an enhanced electrical supply is required for those hoping to charge at home. That has to be factored into the purchase cost.

My main reservation would be about the value of 3 year old batteries and how much would have to be spent to make the car viable in the secondhand market. I use loads of Li-on batteries that really lose efficiency after 3 years and need much more frequent charging. I wonder what range reduction is predicted for a 3 or 5 year old car?

[otolith]

Fittster said:

Are Telsa actually making a profit?

Not when you account for their R&D spending, no, a massive loss on a massive slush fund.

[Ozzie Osmond]

98elise said:

In 24hrs tesla have orders for more than a third of that, and I suspect will break 250k in the next 24hrs.

Wonder how many of those customers will actually want to pay for the car in 2 years time when delivery is offered but they can buy something similar and cheaper from Ford, Vauxhall, Honda, Toyota, VW etc. Bear in mind that Toyota and VW each sold 10,000,000 cars last year.

Tesla's reputation to date is built on selling expensive cars to wealthy fashionistas. Whether that will trickle down to the mainstream market remains to be seen.

[s3fella]

Impasse said:

Galsia said:

Most people would only need to charge it once per week or so.

In that case you'd have to question the wisdom of buying a £30k car in the first place.

ding ding ding!

[otolith]

Ozzie Osmond said:

Wonder how many of those customers will actually want to pay for the car in 2 years time when delivery is offered but they can buy something similar and cheaper from Ford, Vauxhall, Honda, Toyota, VW etc. Bear in mind that Toyota and VW each sold 10,000,000 cars last year.

Tesla's reputation to date is built on selling expensive cars to wealthy fashionistas. Whether that will trickle down to the mainstream market remains to be seen.

The funny thing is that if that does happen, Musk will be delighted.

[HB2K]

otolith said:

Fittster said:

Are Telsa actually making a profit?

Not when you account for their R&D spending, no, a massive loss on a massive slush fund.

I've seen something suggesting they are making an operating profit but then plowing all that (and a lot more additional investment besides) back into expansion.

Chap I briefly knew at work had an IT company that did this - never actually made a net profit but expanded pretty quickly and then sold out to Microsoft, netting a cool £25m in the process. That's not really Mr Musk's game though - at some point he's going to have to actually start making some money. Early days, though.

[otolith]

I think if he succeeds in disrupting the technology in the car market and provoking a move away from ICE to electric, he will consider it job done. It's not as if he hasn't already had the option of retiring with more money than God.

[TuonoPants]

Falsey said:

Was tempted but the prospect of putting a grand down and then having to wait for a few years didnt really excite me. Clever car though, even cleverer marketing.

Clever marketing and even cleverer business. By the time the excitement dies down Tesla will probably have 250K orders at $1000 (£1000 in the UK!) each and an interest free loan of about $250M

Musk might not be making money selling cars (yet) but he sure knows how to raise cash.

[98elise]

speedking31 said:

I thought the supercharger wouldn't work off a 13A plug and so an enhanced electrical supply is required for those hoping to charge at home. That has to be factored into the purchase cost.

My main reservation would be about the value of 3 year old batteries and how much would have to be spent to make the car viable in the secondhand market. I use loads of Li-on batteries that really lose efficiency after 3 years and need much more frequent charging. I wonder what range reduction is predicted for a 3 or 5 year old car?

You would need a spur, so a bit like wiring a cooker or shower.

The Tesla battery warrantly is 8 years and unlimited mileage. Data from the roadster showed about 10-15% down after 100k miles. A few Model S are already hitting the 100k miles without any serious degradation.

Given that the tesla battery pack is actually lots of smaller batteries I can easily see a refub market appearing. Thats what happned with hybrids. Hybrid packs can be refurbed for a few hundred dollars in the states, ie similar cost to one of the many things that can (and will) fail in an ICE car of a similar age

[s3fella]

Pommygranite said:

My you're a cynical chap.

I'm not, I am just being realistic. I am a fan of electric cars, my wife has a zoe, but having run all the numbers when we got it, it was ONLY viable and only just (compared to an equiv diesel clio) because of the £10k dealer / govt grant and the fact you could often park it and charge it for free. It's a 2 year lease, and I hope that we will be shot of it (Dec 17) before "all these" Teslas arrive. As already, my wife has had hassle from people vying for charging points and park spaces.

Theya re only free currently to attract people to them, but once they are established, or if we need more charging points and spaces, they wont be free. And then the whole idea falls over, as Zoe is only viable because it can park and charge for free.

And we would all be naive to think otherwise to be honest.

[unsprung]

speedking31 said:

I thought the supercharger wouldn't work off a 13A plug and so an enhanced electrical supply is required for those hoping to charge at home. That has to be factored into the purchase cost.

In the car's domestic market, purchasing and installing a home-based supercharger runs the equivalent of approximately £1500. And many US states allow you to deduct 50 percent of this cost from your annual income tax. Or property tax.

speedking31 said:

My main reservation would be about the value of 3 year old batteries and how much would have to be spent to make the car viable in the secondhand market. I use loads of Li-on batteries that really lose efficiency after 3 years and need much more frequent charging. I wonder what range reduction is predicted for a 3 or 5 year old car?

At three years old, there is no measurable loss of performance in these batteries. Check the Tesla site or forums. The current batteries are warranted. And the term is something like (I don't recall exactly) eight years and 100,000 miles.

Furthermore: the cost of the battery component has fallen precipitously in the last five years. With historic levels of production now about to begin... battery prices will fall ever more so.

[IN51GHT]

I ordered ours yesterday, I have to admit I actually went a little dizzy in the store due to excitement.

Seeing the car has done nothing to dull the excitement.

[Zoon]

Mr Will said:

How many people regularly do 200+ miles per day?

That's the problem, they don't, but when they need to they find they can't easily without a lot of forward planning. Fast forward 2 years when there are a few more thousand Model 3s driving round and all the chargers are full, then you start to see the main issue with EV's.

But for day to day transportation and charging at night they are a great idea and I'd have one tomorrow.

[Mr Will]

HB2K said:

Chap I briefly knew at work had an IT company that did this - never actually made a net profit but expanded pretty quickly and then sold out to Microsoft, netting a cool £25m in the process. That's not really Mr Musk's game though - at some point he's going to have to actually start making some money. Early days, though.

I remember reading that his long-term game plan is to make money selling the batteries to other car manufacturers. The cars are a means to bring EVs in to the mass market and force the hand of established manufacturers. Once the big names have make the switch, he can rake in the money providing all the batteries they will need without having to compete with them directly. It's same reason he has "open sourced" all of Tesla's patents - he actively wants other companies using his technology.

[otolith]

Zoon said:

That's the problem, they don't, but when they need to they find they can't easily without a lot of forward planning. Fast forward 2 years when there are a few more thousand Model 3s driving round and all the chargers are full, then you start to see the main issue with EV's.

You don't expect that infrastructure capacity will increase in line with demand then?

[IN51GHT]

Galsia said:

Most people would only need to charge it once per week or so.

I know I'm in the minority here but I cover 35,000miles a year.

I've had the 30kwh LEAF exactly one month now & have covered just under 3,000miles in it (in fact I'm the 2nd highest monthly mileage user in he UK).

Yes, most EV owners don't do the mileages I am, but I have to say it's quite a step on from the Zoe I had before and the extra range makes it realistic daily transport, the Model 3 will be a massive step forwards.

When do I expect delivery realistically, 2019!!!!!!

[Pommygranite]

s3fella said:

Pommygranite said:

My you're a cynical chap.

I'm not, I am just being realistic. I am a fan of electric cars, my wife has a zoe, but having run all the numbers when we got it, it was ONLY viable and only just (compared to an equiv diesel clio) because of the £10k dealer / govt grant and the fact you could often park it and charge it for free. It's a 2 year lease, and I hope that we will be shot of it (Dec 17) before "all these" Teslas arrive. As already, my wife has had hassle from people vying for charging points and park spaces.

Theya re only free currently to attract people to them, but once they are established, or if we need more charging points and spaces, they wont be free. And then the whole idea falls over, as Zoe is only viable because it can park and charge for free.

And we would all be naive to think otherwise to be honest.

Using the word 'to be honest' doesn't make you right.

You've said they won't deliver them due to demand.

You've said it will become £50k.

You hypothesised the charge point scenario.

You're cynical.

And you do realise this is a global vehicle, not one that will die on its arse just because you feel it won't work in the UK.

You're mistaking viability with desirability. It doesn't matter about viability, it just matters if people feel it offers them something they can benefit from.

[Zoon]

otolith said:

You don't expect that infrastructure capacity will increase in line with demand then?

The infrastructure may do, but the example I gave of the throughput of a charger will not.
You can fill x number of cars up with petrol in 30 minutes.
You cannot charge a large number of cars up in 30 minutes.

That's the problem I see, lets say the chargers you planned to use on your route are in use, you not only have to wait for your charge you have to wait for theirs as well. Add another couple of cars into the mix and you could either be waiting 2 hours to charge or running out of juice.