Discussion
Was just about to post this on a readers car thread when actually it makes more sense here.
Having just browsed apple news app just look at this Electric Vehicle news it pulled up for me:
Toyota have just appointed an R&D team for battery technology to enable them to produce EV vehicles. They aim for a BEV car in 2020.
Porsche are aiming for 20,000 annual sales for EV vehicles in the same year.
VW have scrapped their diesel program for the US and it's new plan is big on EVs. By 2025 they plan on being the world market leader for EVs.
Daimler have announced $11bn investment in EVs
Mini will have an EV by 2019
Even Maserati are getting in on it... new EV supercar in 2020.
Volvo are expecting to produce and sell EVs tuned by Polestar
This just goes on and on.
Looking at this, EVs are the not too distant reality for everyone. Not just people like us who like and are curious about new things. Heck even Maserati and Polestar want in!
Toyota, ahead of the curve with the introduction of Hybrids (the better route to have taken than going diesel) and steadfastly refusing to back battery vehicles (Hybrids and Hydrogen so far) have now caved and set up their own R&D team for battery tech and they aim for a full BEV for 2020.
The ones to watch are clearly VW and Daimler, the latter especially. Their pockets are ludicrously deep and they've already popped out a purely EV 26T rigid demo truck that works before the thought even left Elon Musk's lips. Tesla may have stolen a march on the traditional auto-makers but I do think the likes of VW and Daimler will quite quickly catch and eclipse them. Daimler and VW already make superbly engineered vehicles; powertrain aside, they are ahead of Tesla.
I think Porsches claims for 20k vehicles (mostly its E-mission as well) is probably a bit wishful though! How many top flight Model S has Tesla sold so far?
All in, I think we're in for an exciting 4-5 years.
Having just browsed apple news app just look at this Electric Vehicle news it pulled up for me:
Toyota have just appointed an R&D team for battery technology to enable them to produce EV vehicles. They aim for a BEV car in 2020.
Porsche are aiming for 20,000 annual sales for EV vehicles in the same year.
VW have scrapped their diesel program for the US and it's new plan is big on EVs. By 2025 they plan on being the world market leader for EVs.
Daimler have announced $11bn investment in EVs
Mini will have an EV by 2019
Even Maserati are getting in on it... new EV supercar in 2020.
Volvo are expecting to produce and sell EVs tuned by Polestar
This just goes on and on.
Looking at this, EVs are the not too distant reality for everyone. Not just people like us who like and are curious about new things. Heck even Maserati and Polestar want in!
Toyota, ahead of the curve with the introduction of Hybrids (the better route to have taken than going diesel) and steadfastly refusing to back battery vehicles (Hybrids and Hydrogen so far) have now caved and set up their own R&D team for battery tech and they aim for a full BEV for 2020.
The ones to watch are clearly VW and Daimler, the latter especially. Their pockets are ludicrously deep and they've already popped out a purely EV 26T rigid demo truck that works before the thought even left Elon Musk's lips. Tesla may have stolen a march on the traditional auto-makers but I do think the likes of VW and Daimler will quite quickly catch and eclipse them. Daimler and VW already make superbly engineered vehicles; powertrain aside, they are ahead of Tesla.
I think Porsches claims for 20k vehicles (mostly its E-mission as well) is probably a bit wishful though! How many top flight Model S has Tesla sold so far?
All in, I think we're in for an exciting 4-5 years.
It will indeed be interesting to watch this play out. I'm not an EV owner but having driven an i3 and an i8 I can see their attraction. But a few comments...
the car makers are aren't doing this out of altruism - they're doing it to boost their average fuel economy figures so as not to get thumped by various authorities
batteries have come a long way but still need further development to get more range. somewhere I saw a comparison of energy volumes for the latest batteries and the same volume of petrol - needless to say petrol has far more energy per unit volume than any current battery
the public charging infrastructure is lagging behind and shows little signs of moving forward at the same rate as the EVs themselves. also, as batteries grow in capacity higher rate chargers will be needed more and more.
the car makers are aren't doing this out of altruism - they're doing it to boost their average fuel economy figures so as not to get thumped by various authorities
batteries have come a long way but still need further development to get more range. somewhere I saw a comparison of energy volumes for the latest batteries and the same volume of petrol - needless to say petrol has far more energy per unit volume than any current battery
the public charging infrastructure is lagging behind and shows little signs of moving forward at the same rate as the EVs themselves. also, as batteries grow in capacity higher rate chargers will be needed more and more.
AW10 said:
It will indeed be interesting to watch this play out. I'm not an EV owner but having driven an i3 and an i8 I can see their attraction. But a few comments...
the car makers are aren't doing this out of altruism - they're doing it to boost their average fuel economy figures so as not to get thumped by various authorities
batteries have come a long way but still need further development to get more range. somewhere I saw a comparison of energy volumes for the latest batteries and the same volume of petrol - needless to say petrol has far more energy per unit volume than any current battery
the public charging infrastructure is lagging behind and shows little signs of moving forward at the same rate as the EVs themselves. also, as batteries grow in capacity higher rate chargers will be needed more and more.
I see what you mean. But IMO EVs are actually better products... at least from a refinement and ease of use viewpoint. Many people of course came to EVs because their abilities fitted their use as a second car, they had great tax incentives and at the time many options for free charging. It was cheap motoring. That won't last and we're seeing that already; lease deals are higher and EcoTricity et al are now charging for public charge point use. But whilst some have bailed back to ICE cars because that is what worked out cheaper for them. Many who came for the cheap motoring have stayed for the refinement, the ease of driving, the not going to the petrol station, drivability, performance etc. In many respects (not all), they are better vehicles.the car makers are aren't doing this out of altruism - they're doing it to boost their average fuel economy figures so as not to get thumped by various authorities
batteries have come a long way but still need further development to get more range. somewhere I saw a comparison of energy volumes for the latest batteries and the same volume of petrol - needless to say petrol has far more energy per unit volume than any current battery
the public charging infrastructure is lagging behind and shows little signs of moving forward at the same rate as the EVs themselves. also, as batteries grow in capacity higher rate chargers will be needed more and more.
A litre of petrol holds about 35 MJ of energy...its ridiculously energy dense and you are right, batteries don't come close. Though a tesla might... lets see, 100 kWh pack, so 100 kW for 1 hour = 100 kJ/s for 3600 seconds, thats 360 MJ. Of course you only need 10 litre of fuel to match that and of course 10 litres takes up a much smaller space than the pack in the Tesla.
But you also have to consider, of that 35 MJ probably 20 or more of it is being binned in terms of waste heat and noise. Which is such a shame. 100 years + of engineering development on the ICE and we still chuck away the lions share of the energy stored in the fuel.
Secondly, pack density isn't that much of a problem. Yes it takes up a large space but without needing a complete powertrain, exhaust system etc the space is there to use. Lighter is of course better and as pack size reduces (they reckon 2045 before they hit the same energy density as fuel) cars will become more efficient and there'll be more room inside for people too.
I do not think that Automakers are following this because they think it'll keep the authorities off their back and them in ICEs. I think the writing is on the wall for the ICE in many applications and I think the Automakers know it. ICE will however remain the prime mover in many heavy duty applications though
I can't help but wonder if EVs, as good as they are in some applications, will peak and then decline somewhat, perhaps to be replace by hydrogen as the preferred fuel. Think of all the vast uninhabitable areas in the desert that could become massive solar power plants to split seawater into hydrogen and oxygen. Compressed hydrogen is energy dense and easily transported and when burned produces merely water vapour. All largely a true zero emission transport solution once the plants and the vehicles are produced.
Interesting times ahead me thinks.
Interesting times ahead me thinks.
Hydrogen is pretty much the most hostile fuel imaginable. For all the problems of lithium batteries, hydrogen is just worse in pretty much every way.
If you want to get real energy density, then it needs to be liquefied. That is serious refrigeration - down to within a few degrees of absolute zero. Then you need to keep it cold - otherwise it will boil off.
If you just try and compress it, you get rubbish energy density, and a fuel that permeates pretty much anything. It's an absolute swine to make a gas tight joint or valve, and it will permeate solid steel.
Other than that, its fine.
If you want to get real energy density, then it needs to be liquefied. That is serious refrigeration - down to within a few degrees of absolute zero. Then you need to keep it cold - otherwise it will boil off.
If you just try and compress it, you get rubbish energy density, and a fuel that permeates pretty much anything. It's an absolute swine to make a gas tight joint or valve, and it will permeate solid steel.
Other than that, its fine.
AW10 said:
I can't help but wonder if EVs, as good as they are in some applications, will peak and then decline somewhat, perhaps to be replace by hydrogen as the preferred fuel
I really don't get the fascinating with hydrogen, the tech is great but its just so pointless compared to battery EVs. Why do you want to have a product that you can only refuel at a few designated fuel stations when you can have a battery EV that you can charge at home overnight for pennies??
Tonight the temp will drop to - 5 around where I live. Despite having a range of only 70miles in winter, my Leaf will be fully deforested when I get into it at 7am thanks to pre-warming. I'll do about 40 miles in total tomorrow, will than plug in overnight and repeat for rest of the week.
Wife's car on the otherhand is down to 80 miles of range. So in addition to having to deforst her car in the morning I'm going to have to find time to take it to a petrol station, wait my turn in the queue and hand over £70, great cannot wait. Only good thing is we are use the combustion car less and less, so hopefully that £70 of fuel will last till we are well into 2017.
gangzoom said:
I really don't get the fascinating with hydrogen, the tech is great but its just so pointless compared to battery EVs.
Why do you want to have a product that you can only refuel at a few designated fuel stations when you can have a battery EV that you can charge at home overnight for pennies??
Tonight the temp will drop to - 5 around where I live. Despite having a range of only 70miles in winter, my Leaf will be fully deforested when I get into it at 7am thanks to pre-warming. I'll do about 40 miles in total tomorrow, will than plug in overnight and repeat for rest of the week.
Wife's car on the otherhand is down to 80 miles of range. So in addition to having to deforst her car in the morning I'm going to have to find time to take it to a petrol station, wait my turn in the queue and hand over £70, great cannot wait. Only good thing is we are use the combustion car less and less, so hopefully that £70 of fuel will last till we are well into 2017.
Its the strange thing about this debate - what is seen as a terribly useful feature to one poster, is utterly irrelevant to others. Why do you want to have a product that you can only refuel at a few designated fuel stations when you can have a battery EV that you can charge at home overnight for pennies??
Tonight the temp will drop to - 5 around where I live. Despite having a range of only 70miles in winter, my Leaf will be fully deforested when I get into it at 7am thanks to pre-warming. I'll do about 40 miles in total tomorrow, will than plug in overnight and repeat for rest of the week.
Wife's car on the otherhand is down to 80 miles of range. So in addition to having to deforst her car in the morning I'm going to have to find time to take it to a petrol station, wait my turn in the queue and hand over £70, great cannot wait. Only good thing is we are use the combustion car less and less, so hopefully that £70 of fuel will last till we are well into 2017.
I don't value pre-warming at all - because my garage is insulated and never freezes, so the car is dry, and doesn't drop below about +7 on even the coldest night. Get in, open the garage doors, startup, heated seat, doors close as the car leaves the garage. The engine is blowing plenty of hot air by the time I get onto the road.
On the flip side - 70 miles - how am I meant to get to work and back?
Just as aside, this quote:
"The overall industry is now shifting its electrification focus towards EVs," stated Yasuyuki Yoshinaga, CEO of Fuji Heavy Industries, which manufacturers Subarus. "We are in the age where we cannot just go on launching EVs only as regulation compliance cars."
They realise now, these things are not just a tool for fleet emissions gaming. I think the Japanese have been a bit slow, but they'll catch up. As I say even Toyota has changed its tune, having been steadfastedly against outright EVs. Perhaps they feel like they're having their hands forced. Correct technology or not, it's got momentum enough to have big OEMs getting their wallets out,
A fuel cells big issue is transient demand. They suck at it, and the buck/boost converters used to keep the voltages nice when doing so soak up a nice bit of energy.
I think we'll move beyond the lithium battery into something with great energy density. Perhaps even get to the point sometime in the distant future were you literally wang a chocolate bar size fuel pellet in a hatch and drive around for 3 months. How cool would that be!
"The overall industry is now shifting its electrification focus towards EVs," stated Yasuyuki Yoshinaga, CEO of Fuji Heavy Industries, which manufacturers Subarus. "We are in the age where we cannot just go on launching EVs only as regulation compliance cars."
They realise now, these things are not just a tool for fleet emissions gaming. I think the Japanese have been a bit slow, but they'll catch up. As I say even Toyota has changed its tune, having been steadfastedly against outright EVs. Perhaps they feel like they're having their hands forced. Correct technology or not, it's got momentum enough to have big OEMs getting their wallets out,
A fuel cells big issue is transient demand. They suck at it, and the buck/boost converters used to keep the voltages nice when doing so soak up a nice bit of energy.
I think we'll move beyond the lithium battery into something with great energy density. Perhaps even get to the point sometime in the distant future were you literally wang a chocolate bar size fuel pellet in a hatch and drive around for 3 months. How cool would that be!
Edited by Otispunkmeyer on Monday 28th November 20:28
Absolutely right that the major manufacturers are wanting to move into EVs because (a) they've seen Tesla making it work (b) Several of the big manufacturers face very big fines because of CO2 emissions - VW €1bn, Fiat Chrysler €600m and BMW €350m if this morning's FT is to believed.
However my biggest prediction is that several of the big manufacturers in 10 years time will be unheard-of Chinese manufacturers. The Chinese government's industrial policy seems to suggest they see an opportunity to leapfrog established firms by going straight to EVs. As soon as they have a credible domestic industry you can expect them to ban non-EVs from the streets of Chinese cities meaning the likes of VW lose access to their most profitable market. And then you have tech firms like Apple moving in to the market with deeper pockets than most / all the established car firms
Will German firms keep pace? I'm not so sure. They have huge disadvantages in terms of workforces with a large proportion of the wrong skills & strict German labour laws which will make replacing these folks very hard.
So much changes from a move to EVs & automated cars it's really hard to see how being an established firm is in itself a competitive advantage.
As for hydrogen, I think it's future is probably in trucks where many of the disadvantages can be controlled more easily.
However my biggest prediction is that several of the big manufacturers in 10 years time will be unheard-of Chinese manufacturers. The Chinese government's industrial policy seems to suggest they see an opportunity to leapfrog established firms by going straight to EVs. As soon as they have a credible domestic industry you can expect them to ban non-EVs from the streets of Chinese cities meaning the likes of VW lose access to their most profitable market. And then you have tech firms like Apple moving in to the market with deeper pockets than most / all the established car firms
Will German firms keep pace? I'm not so sure. They have huge disadvantages in terms of workforces with a large proportion of the wrong skills & strict German labour laws which will make replacing these folks very hard.
So much changes from a move to EVs & automated cars it's really hard to see how being an established firm is in itself a competitive advantage.
As for hydrogen, I think it's future is probably in trucks where many of the disadvantages can be controlled more easily.
Have to agree and they don't need a lot of the traditional automotive engineering trades either. They can produce a drive train without them as it's all electronics and electrical items, stuff they've been making for us for a long time now. I still think the Europeans will have the upper hand on vehicle dynamics though.
In terms of passenger car EVs the Future is now, and has been for a couple of years!
I started passenger electo-mobility work seriously back in about 2006, initially for demonstrators and low volume, niche products (like the MAL P1 etc) but for the last two years it's been all hands to the pumps for the OEMs on their passenger car platforms. I also am going to suggest that EVs have now reached critical mass in Europe, and the next model year EVs with >200 mile real world ranges are going to significantly increase adoption. Added to which, as EV volume climbs, they will reach cost parity with comparable ICE models and then quickly get even cheaper (due to the lower overall complexity and significantly lower development costs). At that point, which, imo, is around 2 years away, the market will quickly adapt, with corresponding infrastructure expansion.
I started passenger electo-mobility work seriously back in about 2006, initially for demonstrators and low volume, niche products (like the MAL P1 etc) but for the last two years it's been all hands to the pumps for the OEMs on their passenger car platforms. I also am going to suggest that EVs have now reached critical mass in Europe, and the next model year EVs with >200 mile real world ranges are going to significantly increase adoption. Added to which, as EV volume climbs, they will reach cost parity with comparable ICE models and then quickly get even cheaper (due to the lower overall complexity and significantly lower development costs). At that point, which, imo, is around 2 years away, the market will quickly adapt, with corresponding infrastructure expansion.
chandrew said:
So much changes from a move to EVs & automated cars it's really hard to see how being an established firm is in itself a competitive advantage.
In Europe, where are cars are still status symbols, badge matters! In the rest of the world, less so. (Although in China, a foreign brand car is serious status symbol!!)The competitive advantage the established OEMS have is twofold:
1) They know exactly how to bring a high volume, complex product to market, through R&D,PD, production and marketing. Producing several hundred thousand cars a year is not easy, and modern car plants are incredible feats of engineering, making the actual cars they produce look simple.
2) The know what there customers want, and how to make it. Take a Tesla, other than the powertain, the rest of the car is actually pretty average, being a 2 model old merc platform (give or take). Once Mercedes themselves put an EV powertrain into say a C class, it'll be a "better" car in every respect
And just as i was saying the words "critical mass", lookie here:
BMW-Daimler-Ford-VAG_create_CCS_netowrk
;-)
BMW-Daimler-Ford-VAG_create_CCS_netowrk
;-)
What sort of price point will those ~200 mile range cars be aimed at?
I think most large workplaces with large car parks and large 3rd party car parks are missing a trick not reselling a good number of their spaces to charging point providers like ecocity. If workplaces had a good number of charge points then I could see more people risking the drive in an EV from a greater distance if they know that they can charge when they get there.
I'm convinced increased adoption of Solar and home batteries, even in the UK, will play its part in the growth of EVs. Couple that with any significant increase in the price of petrol/diesel and you'll get people wanting to switching overnight.
I think most large workplaces with large car parks and large 3rd party car parks are missing a trick not reselling a good number of their spaces to charging point providers like ecocity. If workplaces had a good number of charge points then I could see more people risking the drive in an EV from a greater distance if they know that they can charge when they get there.
I'm convinced increased adoption of Solar and home batteries, even in the UK, will play its part in the growth of EVs. Couple that with any significant increase in the price of petrol/diesel and you'll get people wanting to switching overnight.
tankplanker said:
I'm convinced increased adoption of Solar and home batteries, even in the UK, will play its part in the growth of EVs. Couple that with any significant increase in the price of petrol/diesel and you'll get people wanting to switching overnight.
as people move over to EV's the demand and therefore the price of oil will drop, so the old V8 should be viable for a long time to come, it just needs to remain viable till i die then the mumsnet beigists can take over for all i care Range & charging time are the barriers to EV pushing diesel repmobiles off the roads. Next week I've got a 240 mile round trip on Thursday with an hour or so's meeting in the middle and a 300 mile round trip on Friday, again with an hour's meeting at the destination. Sometimes I'll do 5-600 miles in a day. If the range of EVs can be increased to either accommodate this sort of mileage on a single charge or at least recharge fully in an hour they'll have it cracked. Until then, the days of the 320d aren't really numbered.
DRFC1879 said:
Range & charging time are the barriers to EV pushing diesel repmobiles off the roads. Next week I've got a 240 mile round trip on Thursday with an hour or so's meeting in the middle and a 300 mile round trip on Friday, again with an hour's meeting at the destination. Sometimes I'll do 5-600 miles in a day. If the range of EVs can be increased to either accommodate this sort of mileage on a single charge or at least recharge fully in an hour they'll have it cracked. Until then, the days of the 320d aren't really numbered.
A Tesla P90d can cope with both trips so long as you can charge it during your meeting. the 5-600 miles a day - technically it can be done but I would like to see a 200 kwh battery before I will say we are there.
rxe said:
gangzoom said:
I really don't get the fascinating with hydrogen, the tech is great but its just so pointless compared to battery EVs.
Why do you want to have a product that you can only refuel at a few designated fuel stations when you can have a battery EV that you can charge at home overnight for pennies??
Tonight the temp will drop to - 5 around where I live. Despite having a range of only 70miles in winter, my Leaf will be fully deforested when I get into it at 7am thanks to pre-warming. I'll do about 40 miles in total tomorrow, will than plug in overnight and repeat for rest of the week.
Wife's car on the otherhand is down to 80 miles of range. So in addition to having to deforst her car in the morning I'm going to have to find time to take it to a petrol station, wait my turn in the queue and hand over £70, great cannot wait. Only good thing is we are use the combustion car less and less, so hopefully that £70 of fuel will last till we are well into 2017.
Its the strange thing about this debate - what is seen as a terribly useful feature to one poster, is utterly irrelevant to others. Why do you want to have a product that you can only refuel at a few designated fuel stations when you can have a battery EV that you can charge at home overnight for pennies??
Tonight the temp will drop to - 5 around where I live. Despite having a range of only 70miles in winter, my Leaf will be fully deforested when I get into it at 7am thanks to pre-warming. I'll do about 40 miles in total tomorrow, will than plug in overnight and repeat for rest of the week.
Wife's car on the otherhand is down to 80 miles of range. So in addition to having to deforst her car in the morning I'm going to have to find time to take it to a petrol station, wait my turn in the queue and hand over £70, great cannot wait. Only good thing is we are use the combustion car less and less, so hopefully that £70 of fuel will last till we are well into 2017.
I don't value pre-warming at all - because my garage is insulated and never freezes, so the car is dry, and doesn't drop below about +7 on even the coldest night. Get in, open the garage doors, startup, heated seat, doors close as the car leaves the garage. The engine is blowing plenty of hot air by the time I get onto the road.
On the flip side - 70 miles - how am I meant to get to work and back?
Just a gentle swish from the wipers doing two passes across the water on the Leaf windscreen here
Compare and contrast with the post-emissions-scandal-spec diesel VW we have - after chiselling the ice off the windscreen a good 5 miles of thrashing it before the heater even approaches heating.
But then in the VW I suppose I'd be able to get to somewhere nice like Birmingham on one fill-up...
We are already in the future. It just needs bigger batteries.
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