Will electricity prices start to kill off EV's?
Discussion
Isn't the thing that if everyone who had space and spare capital added a 4-6kW solar array and battery to their roofs, then while they wouldn't probably be able to go totally off grid, it could potentially reduce demand on the national grid by a very significant amount (maybe 50%)?
That in turn would go a long way to reducing the need for gas etc. Whether you use that green electricity for domestic uses, heating water, or a BEV is secondary surely as you're still likely to use some imported electricity?
I'm disappointed that the government aren't providing greater incentives than the modest cut in VAT (5%) to encourage this.
My breakeven is still around 8-10 years based on what I'm being quoted, it would be nice if incentives could bring that down to 5 years or so.
That in turn would go a long way to reducing the need for gas etc. Whether you use that green electricity for domestic uses, heating water, or a BEV is secondary surely as you're still likely to use some imported electricity?
I'm disappointed that the government aren't providing greater incentives than the modest cut in VAT (5%) to encourage this.
My breakeven is still around 8-10 years based on what I'm being quoted, it would be nice if incentives could bring that down to 5 years or so.
Tobermory said:
Isn't the thing that if everyone who had space and spare capital added a 4-6kW solar array and battery to their roofs, then while they wouldn't probably be able to go totally off grid, it could potentially reduce demand on the national grid by a very significant amount (maybe 50%)?
.....
Not really......
Peak load on the grid is about 5 or 6 PM.
When solar is not going to do much.
If batteries are a solution, we should be installing them at grid level, where the costs can be very much lower.
We can't do without the grid and we should be strengthening it not weakening it.
It has to be good enough for a week of no sun in February.
So making proper use of the grid in the Summer doesn't cost very much in infrastructure.
Yes we should be installing more solar. But we need a sensible market for export of solar power and we need investment in other power sources and the grid.
We need to be careful of people opting out of paying for the grid when it suits them, yet expecting support from the grid on the bad days.
We could end up with more subsidy to the wrong people.
Yes, it would obviously make much more sense to have batteries at grid level and to export domestic spare energy but the rates offered are too low, even the Octopus 15p rate is half the current cap. At an individual level therefore it makes sense to have your own batter therefore over the medium term.
The resource we all have is our roof spaces and surely the incentives should be higher to encourage everyone to use them?
The cost of installation of domestic solar panels makes us the marginal supplier and so the export tariff needs to reflect this, minus a small amount to offset the fact that the network woudl be funding the storage capacity.
I'm still going o go ahead with at least a 6kW system on our South facing roof (as it seems silly not to use the resource and it will make me feel I'm doing something even if that's a bit spurious), even if it is only cost neutral over a decade or so. With better incentives I could be tempted to use our other available roofs which could amount to around 20kW though.
The resource we all have is our roof spaces and surely the incentives should be higher to encourage everyone to use them?
The cost of installation of domestic solar panels makes us the marginal supplier and so the export tariff needs to reflect this, minus a small amount to offset the fact that the network woudl be funding the storage capacity.
I'm still going o go ahead with at least a 6kW system on our South facing roof (as it seems silly not to use the resource and it will make me feel I'm doing something even if that's a bit spurious), even if it is only cost neutral over a decade or so. With better incentives I could be tempted to use our other available roofs which could amount to around 20kW though.
Tobermory said:
Yes, it would obviously make much more sense to have batteries at grid level and to export domestic spare energy but the rates offered are too low, even the Octopus 15p rate is half the current cap. At an individual level therefore it makes sense to have your own batter therefore over the medium term.
The resource we all have is our roof spaces and surely the incentives should be higher to encourage everyone to use them?.....
Why do you expect 'incentives' to profit from what's worth doing?The resource we all have is our roof spaces and surely the incentives should be higher to encourage everyone to use them?.....
It's a bit of a leap to say export rates being half the cap rate imply it makes sense to have a battery.
Better to do a proper costing.
Fact is that electricity when you want it is a lot more valuable than 'surplus' electricity you can't plan for.
Things went badly wrong years ago with excessive subsidy of FIT.
Rushing in to further subsidies will likely only benefit salesweasels and trades.
We need a balanced, considered approach involving more wind and nuclear ASAP, possibly investment in gas storage and transport too.
OutInTheShed said:
Not really.
Peak load on the grid is about 5 or 6 PM.
When solar is not going to do much.
If batteries are a solution, we should be installing them at grid level, where the costs can be very much lower.
We can't do without the grid and we should be strengthening it not weakening it.
It has to be good enough for a week of no sun in February.
So making proper use of the grid in the Summer doesn't cost very much in infrastructure.
Yes we should be installing more solar. But we need a sensible market for export of solar power and we need investment in other power sources and the grid.
We need to be careful of people opting out of paying for the grid when it suits them, yet expecting support from the grid on the bad days.
We could end up with more subsidy to the wrong people.
I’ve been going through this with a consultant friend, he thinks vehicle to grid is now on the horizon, which will mean an electric car can be used to store surplus energy, the problem in his view is poor infrastructure and intransigence. His calculations now suggest a pay back period of 4-5 years (without V2G), when I built the house 5 years ago the payback was 15-17 years so I didn’t bother with solar as build costs were spiralling. If I can charge my car for free over spring and summer I suspect payback will be shorter, though too many variables to accurately predict.Peak load on the grid is about 5 or 6 PM.
When solar is not going to do much.
If batteries are a solution, we should be installing them at grid level, where the costs can be very much lower.
We can't do without the grid and we should be strengthening it not weakening it.
It has to be good enough for a week of no sun in February.
So making proper use of the grid in the Summer doesn't cost very much in infrastructure.
Yes we should be installing more solar. But we need a sensible market for export of solar power and we need investment in other power sources and the grid.
We need to be careful of people opting out of paying for the grid when it suits them, yet expecting support from the grid on the bad days.
We could end up with more subsidy to the wrong people.
Blue62 said:
OutInTheShed said:
Not really.
Peak load on the grid is about 5 or 6 PM.
When solar is not going to do much.
If batteries are a solution, we should be installing them at grid level, where the costs can be very much lower.
We can't do without the grid and we should be strengthening it not weakening it.
It has to be good enough for a week of no sun in February.
So making proper use of the grid in the Summer doesn't cost very much in infrastructure.
Yes we should be installing more solar. But we need a sensible market for export of solar power and we need investment in other power sources and the grid.
We need to be careful of people opting out of paying for the grid when it suits them, yet expecting support from the grid on the bad days.
We could end up with more subsidy to the wrong people.
I’ve been going through this with a consultant friend, he thinks vehicle to grid is now on the horizon, which will mean an electric car can be used to store surplus energy, the problem in his view is poor infrastructure and intransigence. His calculations now suggest a pay back period of 4-5 years (without V2G), when I built the house 5 years ago the payback was 15-17 years so I didn’t bother with solar as build costs were spiralling. If I can charge my car for free over spring and summer I suspect payback will be shorter, though too many variables to accurately predict.Peak load on the grid is about 5 or 6 PM.
When solar is not going to do much.
If batteries are a solution, we should be installing them at grid level, where the costs can be very much lower.
We can't do without the grid and we should be strengthening it not weakening it.
It has to be good enough for a week of no sun in February.
So making proper use of the grid in the Summer doesn't cost very much in infrastructure.
Yes we should be installing more solar. But we need a sensible market for export of solar power and we need investment in other power sources and the grid.
We need to be careful of people opting out of paying for the grid when it suits them, yet expecting support from the grid on the bad days.
We could end up with more subsidy to the wrong people.
Batteries may well work for home users, but at grid level I suspect they would be expensive due to relatively short life span.
ashenfie said:
I guess that why they increased the standing charges so heavily, in the recent price hikes. Maybe rather than pointless tax cuts, LT could try and fix something, like reduce the standing charge and grants to install solar.
Batteries may well work for home users, but at grid level I suspect they would be expensive due to relatively short life span.
They’ve been messing around with grants for years, I really believe energy policy should be taken out of the hands of politicians! My understanding is limited, but from what I can glean the big issue is storage, much of it hampered by our infrastructure in this country, why are solar panels limited to 4kwh?Batteries may well work for home users, but at grid level I suspect they would be expensive due to relatively short life span.
If more of us switch to EV (as production of ICE slows and stops). Then what’s going to happen when millions get home at 5pm and start charging their vehicles?
Blue62 said:
I’ve been going through this with a consultant friend, he thinks vehicle to grid is now on the horizon, which will mean an electric car can be used to store surplus energy, the problem in his view is poor infrastructure and intransigence. His calculations now suggest a pay back period of 4-5 years (without V2G), when I built the house 5 years ago the payback was 15-17 years so I didn’t bother with solar as build costs were spiralling. If I can charge my car for free over spring and summer I suspect payback will be shorter, though too many variables to accurately predict.
It's something that seems inevitable to me but just a matter of cost. Yesterday the capex costs simply didn't add up at all really. Today, they don't still honestly add up hence all the discussions about paybacks and subsidies etc. but tomorrow it will add up and homes will simply demand less from the Grid for multiple factors from greater efficiency, less user wastage and affordable self generation and optimisation infrastructure. In some ways, it seems immensely wasteful and profligate to let individual households install generation and storage solutions when very clearly centralising this is cheaper, more efficient and smarter. Having millions of people pay to stick panels on non optimised roofs, all using high and inefficient labour, all needing their own high cost management system and all needing to eventually be disposed of seems insane when one considers that one of the core aspects of this is to be less profligate. The far more logical way to actually do this is to centralise this using 'allotments'. Your panels are nowhere near your home, you're not blighting the neighbourhood, you're not having to compromise on positioning, you're not having to buy the expensive management systems. Instead, your panels are on an 8kw standard allotment size somewhere in the country, all optimised for max generation, all managed as part of a large solar farm and whatever is generated is netted as appropriate credits that can be consumed by the person wherever they are.
But people like to own stuff and love sticking hideous crap to the front of their houses that announce to the world that they're special, whether it's gold eagles, satellite dishes, cladding or solar. People love gaudy junk on their houses so much we even have to have laws to try and limit how awful houses in the U.K. would look otherwise.
But however it is done, energy consumption, generation and storage will change. Everyone will essentially become energy traders, simply using apps to buy, sell, hold and consume energy. The FCA will even deliberately fail to regulate the trading app services that spring up to dupe the stupid old men, witless old biddies, unschooled housewives and their feckless kids who'll believe any old cr4p if you remove the vowels from the name and get some 5p performing arsehat to tell them whatever mindless garbage they need to hear. And there will be a whole miss selling scandal as the duped vegetables bin all their savings because they all want to get rich without working or saving and want to photographed next cars like the plastic freaks they go to sleep dreaming about.
But for 'normals' we will be able to integrate local or remote generation services with storage solutions such as our cars and along with investing in insulation and not running the central heating at 20c while watching 5 80" TVs while everyone is using QVC foot spas or sitting in buckets of 'me flavoured water' in the garden. We will be able to use energy far more efficiently, use less of it and have to buy less from the Grid.
I think what should be interesting next year is the usage data for the next 6 months. That data will really show how much excess energy has been being used by U.K. households. It'll be the first time in modern history that everyone has stripped back their excess consumption to reveal a true base level of demand.
Mind you, I've now met two Tesla users who were absolutely convinced that their total bills were now capped by the Govt at £2500 so were planning to just whack up the heating and use as much energy as possible going forward. These utter idiots walk any green as we all know. Lord knows how they've managed to get jobs that pay enough to rent an EV but it's clear that EV users are not immune from Full Retard Syndrome yet I suspect that they will be less aware of their ailment due to Dunning Kruger prevalence. As such, reverting to the OPs big worry that the entire EV industry was going to collapse, there are going to be EV owners who used too much man maths to justify their need for an on trend chattel and who will be facing an awkward predicament. Busses still look half empty in most places so these folk won't have any mobility issues and will just be supplying the used market with some low mileage stock down the line.
Blue62 said:
They’ve been messing around with grants for years, I really believe energy policy should be taken out of the hands of politicians! My understanding is limited, but from what I can glean the big issue is storage, much of it hampered by our infrastructure in this country, why are solar panels limited to 4kwh?
If more of us switch to EV (as production of ICE slows and stops). Then what’s going to happen when millions get home at 5pm and start charging their vehicles?
Don't forget that no one will be getting home at 5pm and start charging their vehicles. That bit is a non issue. They may get home at 5pm and they may plug their car in at 5pm but they won't be allowing any electrons to flow from the Grid to their car battery until the price of those electrons falls to a palatable level later in the night. If more of us switch to EV (as production of ICE slows and stops). Then what’s going to happen when millions get home at 5pm and start charging their vehicles?
The whole 'Grid collapse during Corrie' thing is genuine scare mongering by the same type of people who get a buzz from posting anti 5G, anti vacs and all the other wheezes to terrify thickos and have a laugh at watching them turn into quivering, witless Weebles.
Market pricing will simply move EV demand where it is wanted. The end consumer can simply get stuffed and do one if they randomly and with no intelligent thought want to charge their car at 5pm while having tea. They will have to wait until everyone else has had supper and then decided to turn in for the night.
Obviously, the self entitled, benefit demanding Weebles will smash social media with their cries of oppression at not being allowed to charge their car at 5pm but the rest of the country will merely point and laugh at their utter stupidity and childish self entitlement before going to sleep relaxed and assured that their own car will simply be topped up while they sleep and for the cheapest rate.
Interesting and amusing post DA, you need to keep your personal prejudices in check though, not good for blood pressure. I fully agree that panels are a blight and a centralised solution is best, but how long do we wait? In my own case about 50% of my roof space is flat with a reasonable parapet, which means only drone geeks will be offended. My near neighbour installed the Tesla wall (via aforementioned consultant friend who advised against it on cost grounds), he’s putting a lot of faith into vehicle to grid.
Blue62 said:
I’ve been going through this with a consultant friend, he thinks vehicle to grid is now on the horizon, which will mean an electric car can be used to store surplus energy, the problem in his view is poor infrastructure and intransigence. His calculations now suggest a pay back period of 4-5 years (without V2G), when I built the house 5 years ago the payback was 15-17 years so I didn’t bother with solar as build costs were spiralling. If I can charge my car for free over spring and summer I suspect payback will be shorter, though too many variables to accurately predict.
V2G is pretty much on the horizon.The Eastern Horizon where the sun is setting on it.
Using vehicle batteries to supply large amounts of energy frequently wears the batteries out.
These days the buzzword is VxG which covers taking small, carefully managed amounts of energy from vehicles but is mostly about the grid deciding when the vehicle is charged.
A lot of people banging on about 'surplus energy'. For the foreseeable future, the only 'surplus' energy is what you get as a result of the time it takes to crank up power stations and wind them down again. Basically you have to light the fire in a gas power station about 30 minutes before you need peak power, so there's a ramping 'surplus' in that period.
If you look at gridwatch you can see that the closest we've come to having any surplus electricity is pushing the gas generation down to about 3 or 4GW for a short while on a windy Sunday night.
ashenfie said:
....
Batteries may well work for home users, but at grid level I suspect they would be expensive due to relatively short life span.
Batteries had a 'factory gate' price of about $120 per kWh in decent quantities, last time I looked.Batteries may well work for home users, but at grid level I suspect they would be expensive due to relatively short life span.
That was a while back, should be less now with factories getting bigger and better.
That makes domestic scale storage look very expensive right now.
.
Blue62 said:
Interesting and amusing post DA, you need to keep your personal prejudices in check though, not good for blood pressure. I fully agree that panels are a blight and a centralised solution is best, but how long do we wait? In my own case about 50% of my roof space is flat with a reasonable parapet, which means only drone geeks will be offended. My near neighbour installed the Tesla wall (via aforementioned consultant friend who advised against it on cost grounds), he’s putting a lot of faith into vehicle to grid.
Blood pressure is OK thanks to not having to be near too many muppets. Was you who mentioned that energy policy shouldn't be in the hands of Westminster? I fervently agree with that. In benign conditions it's ok but during times of change or turmoil it's a disaster.
People also talk about the U.K. not having gas storage. We have the cheapest gas storage of almost any country and it's limitless. We have enormous reservoirs located under the North Sea Basin but no Government saw fit to store and gas in them. Since 1984 we could have bought gas at market prices and paid an annual storage fee to not extract it. That was why we never had to build above ground post extraction storage. But we chose not to store any gas.
In terms of timings, I don't think we are there yet despite the temporary spike in energy costs. £10k into dividend yielding utilities returns more that £10k into trying to be a competitor to those businesses. What's really incredible is that some folk are borrowing money to pay the initial capex of self generation or storage. That really is insane beyond belief! We will get to the point of genuine commercial viability in the next 10-15 years but until then the smart play remains to insulate, use less energy and save for when it's a no brainer to dump the gas boiler and switch to electric with the bulk being self generated one way or another.
When man maths evaporates from the discussion and the majority of homes can see genuine clarity in the savings or benefits that's when it makes sense. Probably around the time that everyone who has jumped already will be paying away even more money to remove all the broken down junk from their roof and hallways.
We have to be very careful as a society to recognise that it's become conditioned into the majority that the smart way to spend less is to go out and spend more than you have today. The reality, rather obviously, is that nothing has changed and the only real way to spend less is to actually just spend less. Logic dictates that you can't consume your way out of an excess consumption issue and more than you can borrow your way out of a debt issue.
ashenfie said:
I guess that why they increased the standing charges so heavily, in the recent price hikes. Maybe rather than pointless tax cuts, LT could try and fix something, like reduce the standing charge and grants to install solar.
Batteries may well work for home users, but at grid level I suspect they would be expensive due to relatively short life span.
you need to think beyond lithium ion when talking about grid scale. nobody sensible is suggesting it as a solution.Batteries may well work for home users, but at grid level I suspect they would be expensive due to relatively short life span.
there's loads of potential ideas and chemistries to store megawatt hours or even gigawatt hours, and i suspect there will be a big old mix of them depending on geography and other factors. these may well be combined into a hybrid system with a smaller lithium ion pack to give the instant response while the mass storage kicks in.
tamore said:
you need to think beyond lithium ion when talking about grid scale. nobody sensible is suggesting it as a solution.
there's loads of potential ideas and chemistries to store megawatt hours or even gigawatt hours, and i suspect there will be a big old mix of them depending on geography and other factors. these may well be combined into a hybrid system with a smaller lithium ion pack to give the instant response while the mass storage kicks in.
Here's one I've actually seen:there's loads of potential ideas and chemistries to store megawatt hours or even gigawatt hours, and i suspect there will be a big old mix of them depending on geography and other factors. these may well be combined into a hybrid system with a smaller lithium ion pack to give the instant response while the mass storage kicks in.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/...
There are loads of 'just around the corner' storage technologies, always have been, always will be. Some of them may deliver in the fullness of time.
Meanwhile large scale Li Ion is real and happening today.
(Unfortunately 'large' is only 'real quite big', not the kind of OMG VAST! which vague plans for carbon neutrality and all those dreams rely on).
OutInTheShed said:
tamore said:
you need to think beyond lithium ion when talking about grid scale. nobody sensible is suggesting it as a solution.
there's loads of potential ideas and chemistries to store megawatt hours or even gigawatt hours, and i suspect there will be a big old mix of them depending on geography and other factors. these may well be combined into a hybrid system with a smaller lithium ion pack to give the instant response while the mass storage kicks in.
Here's one I've actually seen:there's loads of potential ideas and chemistries to store megawatt hours or even gigawatt hours, and i suspect there will be a big old mix of them depending on geography and other factors. these may well be combined into a hybrid system with a smaller lithium ion pack to give the instant response while the mass storage kicks in.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/...
There are loads of 'just around the corner' storage technologies, always have been, always will be. Some of them may deliver in the fullness of time.
Meanwhile large scale Li Ion is real and happening today.
(Unfortunately 'large' is only 'real quite big', not the kind of OMG VAST! which vague plans for carbon neutrality and all those dreams rely on).
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/wor...
if they can successfully demonstrate a 300 mWh plant in 2023, that would be a huge step if it is genuinely 1/10 of the cost of a lithium based equivalent. we aren't going to run out of rust anytime soon.
tamore said:
you need to think beyond lithium ion when talking about grid scale. nobody sensible is suggesting it as a solution.
there's loads of potential ideas and chemistries to store megawatt hours or even gigawatt hours, and i suspect there will be a big old mix of them depending on geography and other factors. these may well be combined into a hybrid system with a smaller lithium ion pack to give the instant response while the mass storage kicks in.
Here's one I've actually seen:there's loads of potential ideas and chemistries to store megawatt hours or even gigawatt hours, and i suspect there will be a big old mix of them depending on geography and other factors. these may well be combined into a hybrid system with a smaller lithium ion pack to give the instant response while the mass storage kicks in.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/...
There are loads of 'just around the corner' storage technologies, always have been, always will be. Some of them may deliver in the fullness of time.
Meanwhile large scale Li Ion is real and happening today.
(Unfortunately 'large' is only 'real quite big', not the kind of OMG VAST! which vague plans for carbon neutrality and all those dreams rely on).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63029226
Quentin Wilson seems to be of the opinion that folk like him who are wealthy enough to bowl around in EVs need to be given free money from all the poorer folk of the entire gig is over.
Quentin Wilson seems to be of the opinion that folk like him who are wealthy enough to bowl around in EVs need to be given free money from all the poorer folk of the entire gig is over.
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