VW seems to be panicking...

[520TORQUES]

DonkeyApple said:

We need to also recognise that the reason many people are suddenly and only now up in arms about Chinese goods, despite living off them practically their entire lives is because industries such as the European automotive industry are buying PR and even propaganda to try and salvage the dismal situation that they are 100% to blame for.

The question the U.K. needs to be asking itself isn't about China or India but why we should pay vast sums to protect some legacy European manufacturers when it is of absolutely zero benefit to us. We paid that bill 30 years ago as a nation. It's now the turn of France and Germany to pay their bill for something they've delayed and made far worse through their own legislation.

The U.K. by deindustrialising decades earlier has today a unique competitive advantage, along with the ability to become energy self sufficient and it would be mad to throw that away just to help the shareholders of Mercedes, BMW, VW, Renault etc etc.

One of the benefits of Brexit is we can now choose to do that.

It's not as simple as you suggest though, China has the potential to screw us if we allow the UK and European manufacturing base to die.

[DonkeyApple]

520TORQUES said:

One of the benefits of Brexit is we can now choose to do that.

It's not as simple as you suggest though, China has the potential to screw us if we allow the UK and European manufacturing base to die.

Anyone can already screw us. Just look at how much taxpayer money we've had to give away to the overseas firms we pay to assemble cars in the U.K. post Brexit. They've all been given sweeteners at our expense to keep them here. It's a toxic industry that we should just get rid of once and for all. Then use our economic might as the 7/8th largest economy on the planet and one of the most valuable auto markets to import at the least cost to the taxpayer.

When it comes down to generic, disposable, utility transport boxes we should exercise our freedom to import from wherever we want and ensure those exporters have no choice but to compete on pricing to win business.

What we don't want is a repeat of 2008 where we ended up randomly subsidising overseas manufacturers for no reason.

[OutInTheShed]

520TORQUES said:

...

It's not as simple as you suggest though, China has the potential to screw us if we allow the UK and European manufacturing base to die.

Bit late now, we should have worked that out in about 1969.

[520TORQUES]

DonkeyApple said:

Anyone can already screw us. Just look at how much taxpayer money we've had to give away to the overseas firms we pay to assemble cars in the U.K. post Brexit. They've all been given sweeteners at our expense to keep them here. It's a toxic industry that we should just get rid of once and for all. Then use our economic might as the 7/8th largest economy on the planet and one of the most valuable auto markets to import at the least cost to the taxpayer.

When it comes down to generic, disposable, utility transport boxes we should exercise our freedom to import from wherever we want and ensure those exporters have no choice but to compete on pricing to win business.

What we don't want is a repeat of 2008 where we ended up randomly subsidising overseas manufacturers for no reason.

We were giving away vast tax payers money pre Brexit. What we have now is a choice, something EU countries dont.

Killing the UK automotive sector to save a few quid is going to be a hard sell and does not come free. It was something some of the pro Brexit economists said we should do.

[520TORQUES]

OutInTheShed said:

Bit late now, we should have worked that out in about 1969.

Plenty did, they were shouted down.

[DMZ]

520TORQUES said:

We were giving away vast tax payers money pre Brexit. What we have now is a choice, something EU countries dont.

Killing the UK automotive sector to save a few quid is going to be a hard sell and does not come free. It was something some of the pro Brexit economists said we should do.

The amount of money spent in the EU to subsidise Germany is outrageous. If only they would leave also with their tedious industrial success that isn’t paying for anything.

[TheDeuce]

520TORQUES said:

TheDeuce said:

We can do the design work as well as anyone else, better than most in fact. The manufacturing though.. not so much. We're not at all competitive when it comes to the manufacture of anything designed to sell globally. We chose shorter working weeks and higher welfare and rights. Asia did not, hence they remain able to manufacture things far cheaper than we can.

Japan have as good and sometimes better working rights and welfare than the UK, we imported their management practices because they were better than our own.

They out competed the west by investing in new technology, not by cheap sweatshop practices.

Tariffs and quota limits kept them from totally destroying the European and USA manufacturers to the point they had to build factories in the local market.

China are doing it differently, they have stolen western IP, we made that easy for them by giving them easy access, they are now using their despotic system to produce at pence in the pound.

We have to decide if thats OK, or shut them out.

I would say Japan outcompeted the UK in the electronics market based on rapid product development and great design. It wasn't so much about cost, albeit the scale of manufacture and assembly of electronics, in addition to the generally fantastic management, did result in cheaper products than here.

It's a very different situation today however, Japans production of electronics has been dropping quite significantly over the last decade, due to Chinese and Korean competition, and those countries definitely make stuff considerably cheaper than here or Japan.

As for shutting out China, the modern world would need to take a very long run up to that day - pretty much all semi-conductors are made in China/Taiwan, as just one example of a supply we would need to recreate elsewhere ahead of 'shutting out'.

Is there anything electronic, including cars, that can be bought which doesn't have Chinese components in it?

[Fusion777]

TheDeuce said:

We can do the design work as well as anyone else, better than most in fact. The manufacturing though.. not so much. We're not at all competitive when it comes to the manufacture of anything designed to sell globally. We chose shorter working weeks and higher welfare and rights. Asia did not, hence they remain able to manufacture things far cheaper than we can.

Shorter working weeks, higher welfare and rights don't make you less competitive. France work a 35-hour week and have stronger employee rights, but are more productive than us. Italy, Germany and Scandanavia all out perform us on productivity despite having either shorter work weeks or more protections.

The idea that we have to transform into Singapore, Vietnam or Mexico to improve competitiveness is untrue.

[TheDeuce]

Fusion777 said:

TheDeuce said:

We can do the design work as well as anyone else, better than most in fact. The manufacturing though.. not so much. We're not at all competitive when it comes to the manufacture of anything designed to sell globally. We chose shorter working weeks and higher welfare and rights. Asia did not, hence they remain able to manufacture things far cheaper than we can.

Shorter working weeks, higher welfare and rights don't make you less competitive. France work a 35-hour week and have stronger employee rights, but are more productive than us. Italy, Germany and Scandanavia all out perform us on productivity despite having either shorter work weeks or more protections.

The idea that we have to transform into Singapore, Vietnam or Mexico to improve competitiveness is untrue.

With investment we could improve how competitive we are vs Germany etc... But the point is we have effectively opted not to make such investments as the entire sector has for quite some time been dominated by China/Korea.

So long as we maintain the rights and worker conditions/lifestyle we have in the west, no western country can hope to compete with China or Korea on price for electronics, in fact just about anything that is mass produced really..

[Nomme de Plum]

TheDeuce said:

With investment we could improve how competitive we are vs Germany etc... But the point is we have effectively opted not to make such investments as the entire sector has for quite some time been dominated by China/Korea.

So long as we maintain the rights and worker conditions/lifestyle we have in the west, no western country can hope to compete with China or Korea on price for electronics, in fact just about anything that is mass produced really..

There is nothing new in developing countries being able to out compete the developed world in production costs. It's probably a century old if not longer.

It used to be lower skilled production but now these developing countries are becoming highly educated and the West has not adequately upskilled their workforce or develop a more equitable education system. Too many UK children are incredibly undereducated and feed through to the workforce.

There is also an attitude amongst many that work is a necessity rather than part of who we are. This leads to a just enough approach to effort and commitment.

I do not see reducing workers benefits as helping in fact there seems to be huge resentment toward employers and our politicians as can be seen in thee very pages.

Getting into a trade war will ultimately make us all a bit poorer and destabilise the world even more than the rather precarious situation we now face.

[DonkeyApple]

TheDeuce said:

With investment we could improve how competitive we are vs Germany etc... But the point is we have effectively opted not to make such investments as the entire sector has for quite some time been dominated by China/Korea.

So long as we maintain the rights and worker conditions/lifestyle we have in the west, no western country can hope to compete with China or Korea on price for electronics, in fact just about anything that is mass produced really..

That's the key. We massively out compete Germany in some sectors. Interestingly, the obvious sectors where we don't come close are the same ones that Germany is getting its arse reamed on by Asia and North America and is going to have to spend €billions trying to get them vaguely near net zero.

Germany is currently waking up to the reality that it is not energy self sufficient and arguably can't be using existing tech. Can no longer endlessly expand its EU vassals due to hitting Russia. Its banks are in an utterly pisspoor shape and its massive legacy 20th century industrial base can't meet net zero. Meanwhile, it can't manufacture cars at anywhere near the cost that Asia can despite pumping that industry full of back door subsidies for years. And to cap it all they've got to keep paying money away to all the slower paced economies in the EU. And France doesn't exactly look much prettier given large chunks of its nuclear is due to come off line ahead of 2050 and their legacy industries have the same net zero burden.

In terms of economic peer performance the whole net zero drive is a bit of an accidental gift to the U.K. by comparison.

[TheDeuce]

Nomme de Plum said:

TheDeuce said:

With investment we could improve how competitive we are vs Germany etc... But the point is we have effectively opted not to make such investments as the entire sector has for quite some time been dominated by China/Korea.

So long as we maintain the rights and worker conditions/lifestyle we have in the west, no western country can hope to compete with China or Korea on price for electronics, in fact just about anything that is mass produced really..

There is nothing new in developing countries being able to out compete the developed world in production costs. It's probably a century old if not longer.

It used to be lower skilled production but now these developing countries are becoming highly educated and the West has not adequately upskilled their workforce or develop a more equitable education system. Too many UK children are incredibly undereducated and feed through to the workforce.

There is also an attitude amongst many that work is a necessity rather than part of who we are. This leads to a just enough approach to effort and commitment.

I do not see reducing workers benefits as helping in fact there seems to be huge resentment toward employers and our politicians as can be seen in thee very pages.

Getting into a trade war will ultimately make us all a bit poorer and destabilise the world even more than the rather precarious situation we now face.

To be clear I was outlining why the UK has not invested in trying to 'keep up', I wasn't suggesting we should or that we could even if we reduced worker conditions - which of course we never can, some things can only ever move in one direction.

We're out of the manufacturing business, we're still a wealthy country and that has much to do other sectors where we're extremely successful.

[TheDeuce]

DonkeyApple said:

TheDeuce said:

With investment we could improve how competitive we are vs Germany etc... But the point is we have effectively opted not to make such investments as the entire sector has for quite some time been dominated by China/Korea.

So long as we maintain the rights and worker conditions/lifestyle we have in the west, no western country can hope to compete with China or Korea on price for electronics, in fact just about anything that is mass produced really..

That's the key. We massively out compete Germany in some sectors. Interestingly, the obvious sectors where we don't come close are the same ones that Germany is getting its arse reamed on by Asia and North America and is going to have to spend €billions trying to get them vaguely near net zero.

Germany is currently waking up to the reality that it is not energy self sufficient and arguably can't be using existing tech. Can no longer endlessly expand its EU vassals due to hitting Russia. Its banks are in an utterly pisspoor shape and its massive legacy 20th century industrial base can't meet net zero. Meanwhile, it can't manufacture cars at anywhere near the cost that Asia can despite pumping that industry full of back door subsidies for years. And to cap it all they've got to keep paying money away to all the slower paced economies in the EU. And France doesn't exactly look much prettier given large chunks of its nuclear is due to come off line ahead of 2050 and their legacy industries have the same net zero burden.

In terms of economic peer performance the whole net zero drive is a bit of an accidental gift to the U.K. by comparison.

Yep. I suppose we had to get some luck at some point!

[coetzeeh]

DonkeyApple said:

TheDeuce said:

With investment we could improve how competitive we are vs Germany etc... But the point is we have effectively opted not to make such investments as the entire sector has for quite some time been dominated by China/Korea.

So long as we maintain the rights and worker conditions/lifestyle we have in the west, no western country can hope to compete with China or Korea on price for electronics, in fact just about anything that is mass produced really..

That's the key. We massively out compete Germany in some sectors. Interestingly, the obvious sectors where we don't come close are the same ones that Germany is getting its arse reamed on by Asia and North America and is going to have to spend €billions trying to get them vaguely near net zero.

Germany is currently waking up to the reality that it is not energy self sufficient and arguably can't be using existing tech. Can no longer endlessly expand its EU vassals due to hitting Russia. Its banks are in an utterly pisspoor shape and its massive legacy 20th century industrial base can't meet net zero. Meanwhile, it can't manufacture cars at anywhere near the cost that Asia can despite pumping that industry full of back door subsidies for years. And to cap it all they've got to keep paying money away to all the slower paced economies in the EU. And France doesn't exactly look much prettier given large chunks of its nuclear is due to come off line ahead of 2050 and their legacy industries have the same net zero burden.

In terms of economic peer performance the whole net zero drive is a bit of an accidental gift to the U.K. by comparison.

What slays me is the fact that Germany switched off functioning Nuclear generation this year in favor of burning Coal - and as a matter of fact clearing a forest to mine more coal.

[Nomme de Plum]

TheDeuce said:

To be clear I was outlining why the UK has not invested in trying to 'keep up', I wasn't suggesting we should or that we could even if we reduced worker conditions - which of course we never can, some things can only ever move in one direction.

We're out of the manufacturing business, we're still a wealthy country and that has much to do other sectors where we're extremely successful.

I think we can still be good a small scale niche manufacturing but i agree we have been slow at getting our population adequately educated/trained for the future. It doesn't not help that we seem to politically dabble with education far too often.

[520TORQUES]

TheDeuce said:

As for shutting out China, the modern world would need to take a very long run up to that day - pretty much all semi-conductors are made in China/Taiwan, as just one example of a supply we would need to recreate elsewhere ahead of 'shutting out'.

Do not consider China and Taiwan as the same entity, they are seperate countries with very different political regimes and technical ability.

China make the crap IC's, Taiwan make the high end leading edge IC's.

The current US policy is to shut out China from gaining the ability to produce high end chips, US citizens in the industry have been ordered to leave China.

It's pretty clear from recent policy the USA is ramping up for conflict with China, possibly militarily. That is where all the defence contract money is going and where the industrial onshoring is concentrating.

[520TORQUES]

coetzeeh said:

What slays me is the fact that Germany switched off functioning Nuclear generation this year in favor of burning Coal - and as a matter of fact clearing a forest to mine more coal.

The genius of Merkel.

After fukushima she ordered the German nuclear industry to be shut down and went fully into bed with Russia for energy supply.

Doh.

[TheDeuce]

520TORQUES said:

TheDeuce said:

As for shutting out China, the modern world would need to take a very long run up to that day - pretty much all semi-conductors are made in China/Taiwan, as just one example of a supply we would need to recreate elsewhere ahead of 'shutting out'.

Do not consider China and Taiwan as the same entity, they are seperate countries with very different political regimes and technical ability.

China make the crap IC's, Taiwan make the high end leading edge IC's.

The current US policy is to shut out China from gaining the ability to produce high end chips, US citizens in the industry have been ordered to leave China.

It's pretty clear from recent policy the USA is ramping up for conflict with China, possibly militarily. That is where all the defence contract money is going and where the industrial onshoring is concentrating.

Yes I'm aware of the China - USA tensions, those tensions elevated further by China heavily suggesting it's considering taking back control of Taiwan by force.

Naturally that pisses off the west as that would give China control of virtually all semiconductor production.. And even if they failed, at the very least it would heavily disrupt semiconductor supply for years.

[520TORQUES]

TheDeuce said:

Yes I'm aware of the China - USA tensions, those tensions elevated further by China heavily suggesting it's considering taking back control of Taiwan by force.

Naturally that pisses off the west as that would give China control of virtually all semiconductor production.. And even if they failed, at the very least it would heavily disrupt semiconductor supply for years.

Taiwan would blow up the factories should China get into a position they would be invaded successfully.

Even without USA naval protection, invading Taiwan would be extremely difficult for China to pull off, it would be a bloodbath and would destroy the Chinese economy.

Is that worth the risk for China? Only a mad man would try, problem is Xi is nuts.

[Nomme de Plum]

520TORQUES said:

coetzeeh said:

What slays me is the fact that Germany switched off functioning Nuclear generation this year in favor of burning Coal - and as a matter of fact clearing a forest to mine more coal.

The genius of Merkel.

After fukushima she ordered the German nuclear industry to be shut down and went fully into bed with Russia for energy supply.

Doh.

To be fair Russia was seen as a potential partner and was even touted to be a future member of Nato. I think the USA put pay to that and the relationship went down hill rapidly after that. In hindsight had we tried to keep Russia on side it may well have worked and Putin may have had an unfortunate accident.

He didn't so here we are. Germany gambled and now have a big issue power wise. They had decided decades ago to dump Nuclear and maybe it is not in the German psyche to change.