EVs - have the financial savings evaporated already?

EVs - have the financial savings evaporated already?

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Discussion

dxg

8,203 posts

260 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
LimaDelta said:
Nomme de Plum said:
How can they ratchet up prices with cheap Chinese imports? Motor manufacturing is a competitive business like any other. Economies of scale will assist in keeping prices lower than they would otherwise be.

It is certainly the cheapest motoring I've done in a quite a long time. I don't buy new and pay cash so no financing costs.
Maybe the Chinese will take up the lower end of the market, but with no service or support here, insurance costs are going to be higher than for an established manufacturer with a strong European presence surely? IDK, hence the thread.
Indeed, re insurance costs: https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-insurance/362519...

Nomme de Plum

4,610 posts

16 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
dxg said:
LimaDelta said:
Nomme de Plum said:
How can they ratchet up prices with cheap Chinese imports? Motor manufacturing is a competitive business like any other. Economies of scale will assist in keeping prices lower than they would otherwise be.

It is certainly the cheapest motoring I've done in a quite a long time. I don't buy new and pay cash so no financing costs.
Maybe the Chinese will take up the lower end of the market, but with no service or support here, insurance costs are going to be higher than for an established manufacturer with a strong European presence surely? IDK, hence the thread.
Indeed, re insurance costs: https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-insurance/362519...
From the EV insurance thread.

MG4 xpower £562

TheDeuce

21,566 posts

66 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
Nomme de Plum said:
dxg said:
LimaDelta said:
Nomme de Plum said:
How can they ratchet up prices with cheap Chinese imports? Motor manufacturing is a competitive business like any other. Economies of scale will assist in keeping prices lower than they would otherwise be.

It is certainly the cheapest motoring I've done in a quite a long time. I don't buy new and pay cash so no financing costs.
Maybe the Chinese will take up the lower end of the market, but with no service or support here, insurance costs are going to be higher than for an established manufacturer with a strong European presence surely? IDK, hence the thread.
Indeed, re insurance costs: https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-insurance/362519...
From the EV insurance thread.

MG4 xpower £562
It's some, not all Chinese car, not even just EV's - although more on the EV side as they're the newest models.

This is unfortunately typical of car manufacturers moving into new territories, it will be resolved, but the next few years are going to be turmoil for getting new EV's repaired if they don't have a decent UK infrastructure in place. It'll definitely happen - if cars need repair there is money to be made by repairing them... But it takes time for industry and infrastructure to catch up.

My BMW i4 insurance is actually very reasonable, no doubt because it's based largely upon the mass selling ICE variant of the 4 series and also BMW have a repair and parts infrastructure very much in place.

Hopefully VW's next stab at mass market EV's (after the mostly rubbish ID range of cars) will be an affordable alternative to new Chinese marques and will benefit from VW's own infrastructure across Europe and the UK.

samoht

5,717 posts

146 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
LimaDelta said:
Since then though, EV purchase prices seem to be ever increasing, with the manufacturer effectively factoring into the purchase price any fuel savings from which you may benefit.
No, EVs are being given away for almost half price. "List prices" may be high (and depreciation calculated against list also), but actual EV transaction prices are shockingly cheap.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202402297... list price £32k, pre-reg on 25 miles offered for £18k

Used prices are also correspondingly bargainous.

LimaDelta said:
Insurance costs for BEVs are rocketing, and they are now doing away with the zero RFL rate. How long before they also become liable for congestion zone charging too?
With home charging, the fuel savings are an order of magnitude bigger than the other side benefits which are being withdrawn.

LimaDelta said:
In real terms, for the average (non-company/non-BIK) driver, is a BEV actually any cheaper to run than a similarly sized ICE anymore?
Yes, it's still a lot cheaper. The other running costs are pretty much a wash, but the 80% saving on fuel cost is a big benefit and one that's not going away any time soon. The collapse in residual values has resulted in EVs being cheap to buy and cheap to run.

Sheepshanks

32,774 posts

119 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
Nomme de Plum said:
Why would electricity go up? What is your logic behind making this statement?
EVs & heat pumps. Not enough generating capacity.

coetzeeh

2,648 posts

236 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
SDK said:
The savings of going EV haven't been there for people not 'buying' through a company scheme, and/or have no home charging for 2+ years already.

If you can charge at home then now is great time to buy a used EV's as prices are very low.
It only takes a swing in tax on ICE cars, or a surge up on fuel prices and that could swap around very quickly.


My scenario is an EV through Salary Sacrifice, home charging, home solar & battery storage, and on Octopus Intelligent.
My EV running costs
-> Through Winter when the solar generation is lower it's 2p to 3p per mile.
-> From March to September, when solar generation is better it's 0p to 1p per mile

My EV (£80k BMW iX) costs me £700 a month which includes insurance, maintenance and replacement tyres.
From this time next year this increases to £713 per month, with the VED being included for BEV's



Edited by SDK on Wednesday 27th March 10:58
What was the cost to istall your Charger, Solar PV?

740EVTORQUES

345 posts

1 month

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
My monthly combined electricity and gas bill has gone from £355 to £50 plus I no longer buy petrol saving another £4,500 per year.

That's an approximate saving of £8K per year.

Against that the solar panels, batteries and charger cost £18K.

The car is depreciating at the same rate as any new £60K car, and I could have bought a much cheaper EV (eg a used £25K model 3) and achieved the same savings.

As such the solar and battery installation will pay itself back in less than 4 years and is guaranteed for 10 years (inverter) 25 years (panels).

If you have a south facing roof without shade, it's a no brainer.

(Even in the deepest winter months when there is little sun, we charge the batteries overnight from the grid so our daily electricity is costing 8p instead of 33p per kWh.)

Nomme de Plum

4,610 posts

16 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
Sheepshanks said:
Nomme de Plum said:
Why would electricity go up? What is your logic behind making this statement?
EVs & heat pumps. Not enough generating capacity.
We have adequate generating power. Distribution is a slightly different issue which is a challenge due to planning and NIMBYism

We are still growing our renewable capacity year on year.

We import and export power daily. There are links into Europe.

There will not be any meaningful impact on overall demand due to heat pumps for at least another decade, probably much longer.

EVs tend not to require charging power during those peak demand periods.


There is a Power Generation thread which has a couple of people in the industry posting which you would find informative.

Edited by Nomme de Plum on Wednesday 27th March 13:20

GT9

6,577 posts

172 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
Sheepshanks said:
EVs & heat pumps. Not enough generating capacity.

I really hope you are on the phone right now to tell the boys to install more capacity, as I'm sure they haven't thought of that yet.
How much extra demand, percentage-wise, are you thinking that 1 million EVs put on the grid?

TheDeuce

21,566 posts

66 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
740EVTORQUES said:
My monthly combined electricity and gas bill has gone from £355 to £50 plus I no longer buy petrol saving another £4,500 per year.

That's an approximate saving of £8K per year.

Against that the solar panels, batteries and charger cost £18K.

The car is depreciating at the same rate as any new £60K car, and I could have bought a much cheaper EV (eg a used £25K model 3) and achieved the same savings.

As such the solar and battery installation will pay itself back in less than 4 years and is guaranteed for 10 years (inverter) 25 years (panels).

If you have a south facing roof without shade, it's a no brainer.

(Even in the deepest winter months when there is little sun, we charge the batteries overnight from the grid so our daily electricity is costing 8p instead of 33p per kWh.)
Without paying for solar and battery, you would still be saving about £4k on fuel a year - so your savings contributable to solar are actually more like £3500 a year - which is great, but going to take a fair while to pay back the costs. If energy prices are to drop in those years, back to anything like they previously were, it could be a 10 year ROI.

I do happen to think solar is a great idea due to the value of knowing future price changes will largely not affect you, but the time for ROI and the appearance of the panels does put me off...

Nomme de Plum

4,610 posts

16 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
Without paying for solar and battery, you would still be saving about £4k on fuel a year - so your savings contributable to solar are actually more like £3500 a year - which is great, but going to take a fair while to pay back the costs. If energy prices are to drop in those years, back to anything like they previously were, it could be a 10 year ROI.

I do happen to think solar is a great idea due to the value of knowing future price changes will largely not affect you, but the time for ROI and the appearance of the panels does put me off...
When you're at home you're not looking at them.

A mate up the road has just put 7.5 kW array plus batteries and he's already signing the praises of the power it generates and money he is saving.

I'm moving this summer so planning an array on my new place.




Nomme de Plum

4,610 posts

16 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
samoht said:
LimaDelta said:
Since then though, EV purchase prices seem to be ever increasing, with the manufacturer effectively factoring into the purchase price any fuel savings from which you may benefit.
No, EVs are being given away for almost half price. "List prices" may be high (and depreciation calculated against list also), but actual EV transaction prices are shockingly cheap.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202402297... list price £32k, pre-reg on 25 miles offered for £18k

Used prices are also correspondingly bargainous.

LimaDelta said:
Insurance costs for BEVs are rocketing, and they are now doing away with the zero RFL rate. How long before they also become liable for congestion zone charging too?
With home charging, the fuel savings are an order of magnitude bigger than the other side benefits which are being withdrawn.

LimaDelta said:
In real terms, for the average (non-company/non-BIK) driver, is a BEV actually any cheaper to run than a similarly sized ICE anymore?
Yes, it's still a lot cheaper. The other running costs are pretty much a wash, but the 80% saving on fuel cost is a big benefit and one that's not going away any time soon. The collapse in residual values has resulted in EVs being cheap to buy and cheap to run.
I don't really think one EV from a single dealer constitutes data much like the BMW 8 series less tan a year old with a 31% discount. I've recently checked mine and it is bang on normal depreciation curves.

I just reinsured my EV for a little over £500 fully comp protected no claim and if you look in the EV insurance thread there really aren't any horror stories. All motor insurance has gone up.


richhead

877 posts

11 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
LimaDelta said:
georgeyboy12345 said:
Dieselgate was about a company intentionally cheating on a legally mandated emissions test. This is not, so no.
I used the term (perhaps incorrectly) to describe the government push to encourage people to swap small petrol cars for small diesel cars which were unsuitable for short journeys, rather than the emissions/consumption cheating by various manufacturers.
I tend to avoid anything pushed by the government, they very often get it wrong, if something needs tax cuts etc to sell, then it is not fit for purpose, look at heat pumps etc.
They should let the free market work it out for its self and not spend tax payers money on propping up something that may or may not be a good idea.

FeelingLucky

1,083 posts

164 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
740EVTORQUES said:
My monthly combined electricity and gas bill has gone from £355 to £50 plus I no longer buy petrol saving another £4,500 per year.

That's an approximate saving of £8K per year.

Against that the solar panels, batteries and charger cost £18K.

The car is depreciating at the same rate as any new £60K car, and I could have bought a much cheaper EV (eg a used £25K model 3) and achieved the same savings.

As such the solar and battery installation will pay itself back in less than 4 years and is guaranteed for 10 years (inverter) 25 years (panels).

If you have a south facing roof without shade, it's a no brainer.

(Even in the deepest winter months when there is little sun, we charge the batteries overnight from the grid so our daily electricity is costing 8p instead of 33p per kWh.)
Without paying for solar and battery, you would still be saving about £4k on fuel a year - so your savings contributable to solar are actually more like £3500 a year - which is great, but going to take a fair while to pay back the costs. If energy prices are to drop in those years, back to anything like they previously were, it could be a 10 year ROI.

I do happen to think solar is a great idea due to the value of knowing future price changes will largely not affect you, but the time for ROI and the appearance of the panels does put me off...
I'm on a d/debit of £51/month, so you're beating me, mine is for dual fuel however. I also don't buy petrol. But I do get approx £400 pa FIT payments.

However despite every PV installer out there telling us solar and battery storage are getting cheaper, I had a Powerwall2 and 4.95 kw/p PV fitted in June 2017 for £9.5k, and down the years many people on forums (inc this one) have asserted that either I'll never recoup my ROI or it will take 20 years.

Well, guess what...

I thought at the time it was a no brainer, I still do, despite the vast majority of people disagreeing with me. If I'd taken the leap of faith when FIT were paying 34p/kwh I'd be cash flow positive, but hindsight being 20/20 and all that, I can live with about £200 pa for home energy and car charging.


SDK

890 posts

253 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
coetzeeh said:
What was the cost to istall your Charger, Solar PV?
The EV charger was £500 and the solar & battery were £11k.
Both have long since paid themselves back and more. The Solar also powers the house and heats water.

Having an EV with solar and battery means I can take advantage of the cheap off peak electricy to run the house through Winter when the solar is low. Doing this through Winter 2022/23 and 2023/24 saved us around £1,500, from being able to to use electricity at 7.5p vs the price cap (32 to 38p kWh).

RayDonovan

4,375 posts

215 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
I've done the sums.

For me, taking into account handing back an expensive BIK company car, using part savings and part loan for a Model Y LR, I'll be over £5k year (net) better off.

Lots of sums involved, but I'll be able to charge at a cost of <3p/mile, charge at my office for free (a round trip will go from £60 to around £6). My personal mileage costs will also drop significantly

The only expenditure pre purchase will be a home charger (£1k) and obviously the insurance will sting a little..
Depreciation will yet to be seen, but all cars will depreciate obviously..

PurpleTurtle

6,990 posts

144 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
RayDonovan said:
I've done the sums.

For me, taking into account handing back an expensive BIK company car, using part savings and part loan for a Model Y LR, I'll be over £5k year (net) better off.

Lots of sums involved, but I'll be able to charge at a cost of <3p/mile, charge at my office for free (a round trip will go from £60 to around £6). My personal mileage costs will also drop significantly

The only expenditure pre purchase will be a home charger (£1k) and obviously the insurance will sting a little..
Depreciation will yet to be seen, but all cars will depreciate obviously..
Just interested in how you do that?

I freelance for an OEM, when BEVs first came in they offered free workplace charging, but now the individual has to pay for it.

Is your employer is providing free charging?

I gather it's not a BIK now (or rather, is a zero-rated BIK) but I'd imagine HMRC would love that to change!



RayDonovan

4,375 posts

215 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
PurpleTurtle said:
RayDonovan said:
I've done the sums.

For me, taking into account handing back an expensive BIK company car, using part savings and part loan for a Model Y LR, I'll be over £5k year (net) better off.

Lots of sums involved, but I'll be able to charge at a cost of <3p/mile, charge at my office for free (a round trip will go from £60 to around £6). My personal mileage costs will also drop significantly

The only expenditure pre purchase will be a home charger (£1k) and obviously the insurance will sting a little..
Depreciation will yet to be seen, but all cars will depreciate obviously..
Just interested in how you do that?

I freelance for an OEM, when BEVs first came in they offered free workplace charging, but now the individual has to pay for it.

Is your employer is providing free charging?

I gather it's not a BIK now (or rather, is a zero-rated BIK) but I'd imagine HMRC would love that to change!
I'm not sure, but I do know it's completely free, no BIK or charging cost implications. Even if they start charging employees, it wouldn't bother me as I can claim for office visits as it's not my permanent place of work..
They are upgrading and improving the charging facilities too, current have 6 x 7kWh chargers..

Sheepshanks

32,774 posts

119 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
GT9 said:

I really hope you are on the phone right now to tell the boys to install more capacity, as I'm sure they haven't thought of that yet.
Not sure if serious?


The future of power generation thread seems to have disappeard - interesting.....

GT9

6,577 posts

172 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
Sheepshanks said:
GT9 said:

I really hope you are on the phone right now to tell the boys to install more capacity, as I'm sure they haven't thought of that yet.
Not sure if serious?


The future of power generation thread seems to have disappeard - interesting.....
The answer to the question you avoided answering is less than 1%.

Also, here...https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=205&t=1673400&i=13740