EVs... no one wants them!
Discussion
10 year old Teslas are already showing how they will have a very viable future for many years.
A 350 mile EV at 10 years old and maybe 250 miles will be a great used buy, that’s already happening.
Old ICE cars will be like vinyl. Some will want them and will eulogise about the analogue experience in this digital world, most will not and with the exception of a few rare pressings, most will be worth pennies
A 350 mile EV at 10 years old and maybe 250 miles will be a great used buy, that’s already happening.
Old ICE cars will be like vinyl. Some will want them and will eulogise about the analogue experience in this digital world, most will not and with the exception of a few rare pressings, most will be worth pennies
BricktopST205 said:
ICE cars plateaued in the 90's really. That is why you see many cars from the mid 00's still on the road today. Outside of in car entertainment they are equally as capable as their new car brothers.
Compare the drivetrain of a 90's Golf GTI to that of an AMG A45S. Or even a 90's Evo or Impreza (and also look at the fuel consumption and service intervals). SWoll said:
Again. The development over the past 10 years since the inception of the technology will mean current EV's have considerably more validity in future than a your example of a 10 year old Leaf.
Take a current Model 3 RWD. 230 real world miles, and based on what we've learned with Model S a battery degradation of around 2% per year in normal usage.
Based on that in 10 years that car will still have a useable range of 180+ miles and will be available at a price affordable for a far wider demographic of potential buyers than any new EV available at the time no matter how much the tech has moved on.
You talk like no-one buys 10 year old used cars.
Again answering your own question. Who will want a car that does 180 miles when cars will do 300-400+ real world miles in the future. Take a current Model 3 RWD. 230 real world miles, and based on what we've learned with Model S a battery degradation of around 2% per year in normal usage.
Based on that in 10 years that car will still have a useable range of 180+ miles and will be available at a price affordable for a far wider demographic of potential buyers than any new EV available at the time no matter how much the tech has moved on.
You talk like no-one buys 10 year old used cars.
people do buy 10 year old ICE cars because the technology is fundementally the same and has been for a good 20 years now as ICE development has plateaued. My 2004 Saab 9-5 will do 30MPG as will my 2023 GR86. Both have similar power and both have similar range. (Well ironically the Saab has longer range as it holds about 20 litres more fuel!)
dmsims said:
Seems to be about £4K per year price loss for GR86 and MG4
That is just a flat out lie. BricktopST205 said:
If I would have bought that Model 3 or MG4 I would be 10-15k out of pocket already instead of only a few thousand whilst still being able to drive something enjoyable and saving me money net compared to the EV offerings. Then 5 years down the line if I decide to sell and buy another new car I have a lot more capital to put down on the next.
BricktopST205 said:
Ten year old Nissan Leafs are £1500 quid bangers now. You are already seeing it. One big bill and it is going to scrap. Battery tech has moved on so much futher in the past ten years and it will continue to do so in the future.
What £1500 banger isn't one big bill away? The cheap LEAFs are actually beginning to look very good value and a very useful second car for many people (or even the primary one for low mileage owners). They're cheap to run, have done all their depreciating and to be frank as long as the battery holds out quite cockroach like in their old school Nissan build and reliability. There is a lot less to go wrong on them than on most £1500 cars.
740EVTORQUES said:
10 year old Teslas are already showing how they will have a very viable future for many years.
A 350 mile EV at 10 years old and maybe 250 miles will be a great used buy, that’s already happening.
Old ICE cars will be like vinyl. Some will want them and will eulogise about the analogue experience in this digital world, most will not and with the exception of a few rare pressings, most will be worth pennies
Teslas yes but they are the outlier but the vast majority of tat pushed by legacy manufacturers however will not. Look at a 2 year old mini electric or Honda-E. Will be absolutely worthless in 8 years time. Can barely do 100 miles. A 350 mile EV at 10 years old and maybe 250 miles will be a great used buy, that’s already happening.
Old ICE cars will be like vinyl. Some will want them and will eulogise about the analogue experience in this digital world, most will not and with the exception of a few rare pressings, most will be worth pennies
We keep being told technology has moved on, but in practical terms it hasn’t really. Stuffing increasingly bigger batteries in to inefficient vehicles while chasing some mythical range target isn’t progress, or especially needed.
Having owned four EVs now (including a Leaf) they’ll all pretty much do 90% of our journeys without any major difference between them. The Leaf is certainly not scrap and would easily suit a cross-section of customer, for very little money.
Having owned four EVs now (including a Leaf) they’ll all pretty much do 90% of our journeys without any major difference between them. The Leaf is certainly not scrap and would easily suit a cross-section of customer, for very little money.
BricktopST205 said:
monkfish1 said:
Whilst not in the habit of agreeing with old 740t he is right here. As i said to somebody suggesting and buying a F type jag.
You surely have to bonkers. Thats not going to be an investment. Its not going to hold money long term, nor almost any ICE car.
Once EV becomes mainstream, and running a retrol cart becomes more difficult due to lack of easy supply of petrol, it will quickly become worthless. A quaint museam piece maybe, valuable, no.
There must be a thousand different ways to invest that much money that make way more sense.
I completely disagree. I bought a GR86 last summer. One of only ~1000 ish cars to make it to these shores. You surely have to bonkers. Thats not going to be an investment. Its not going to hold money long term, nor almost any ICE car.
Once EV becomes mainstream, and running a retrol cart becomes more difficult due to lack of easy supply of petrol, it will quickly become worthless. A quaint museam piece maybe, valuable, no.
There must be a thousand different ways to invest that much money that make way more sense.
If anything it is the current EV cars that will be worthless as the technology ten years from now will be light years ahead of what it is today. Whereas my one of 1000 will be seen as a last of its kind and be worth more to the enthusiast who will want to still enjoy driving.
Their will never be a lack of fuel for at least 20-30 years from now. Thankfully by then I will be retired.
Ive said this before, but ill do it again. Once EV's reach critical mass, lets say over 50%, which assuming the mandates are met will be in the 10-15 year window from now.
As Evanivitch has already pointed out, petrol stations are in decline already and have been for a long time. What do you think will happen when 50% of their market and hence their revenue stream is gone?
Clue, they will stop selling petrol the second its no longer profitable and use the site for something else. Bearing in mind the fixed overheads are considerable.
Whilst im sure petrol will be available in 20 years, at a price, it wont be freely available whereever and whenever you need it. It will become a mission to plan a journey around the availability of it. As that gets harder, interest in ICE will wane fast, as essentially, they will become useless.
Against that backdrop, i still say investing in your GR86 for the long term is bonkers. In 25 years time, almost no one will be interested.
But your money, so do as you please.
dmsims said:
Seems to be about £4K per year price loss for GR86 and MG4
How have you come to that number? From Autotrader: 1 year old GR86 are starting around 30K with a new list price of 33K. 1 year old MG4 with a new list price of 32K listing around 21K. I see MG have subsequently released a bigger battery 77kwh trophy model, which perhaps explains the depreciation.
BricktopST205 said:
Ten year old Nissan Leafs are £1500 quid bangers now. You are already seeing it. One big bill and it is going to scrap.
More desperate nonsense. Search for Leafs on autotrader and see how many are £1500. Currently, none.Even if there were, in what way is that worse than 10 year old diesels that are £1500 and one bill away from being scrap?
Other than the diesel car having absolutely no future value whatsoever, whereas the Leaf has inherent value in its materials including the battery, with an industry that is growing to be able to support cheaper battery refurbishment and replacement.
This is about mass transport, not GR86s and other rare enthusiast cars.
FamousPheasant said:
How have you come to that number? From Autotrader: 1 year old GR86 are starting around 30K with a new list price of 33K. 1 year old MG4 with a new list price of 32K listing around 21K.
I see MG have subsequently released a bigger battery 77kwh trophy model, which perhaps explains the depreciation.
You can get some pretty big discounts off a new MG4 which explains it. No one will pay £25k for a year old one when you can get a new one for £24k.I see MG have subsequently released a bigger battery 77kwh trophy model, which perhaps explains the depreciation.
BricktopST205 said:
SWoll said:
Again. The development over the past 10 years since the inception of the technology will mean current EV's have considerably more validity in future than a your example of a 10 year old Leaf.
Take a current Model 3 RWD. 230 real world miles, and based on what we've learned with Model S a battery degradation of around 2% per year in normal usage.
Based on that in 10 years that car will still have a useable range of 180+ miles and will be available at a price affordable for a far wider demographic of potential buyers than any new EV available at the time no matter how much the tech has moved on.
You talk like no-one buys 10 year old used cars.
Again answering your own question. Who will want a car that does 180 miles when cars will do 300-400+ real world miles in the future. Take a current Model 3 RWD. 230 real world miles, and based on what we've learned with Model S a battery degradation of around 2% per year in normal usage.
Based on that in 10 years that car will still have a useable range of 180+ miles and will be available at a price affordable for a far wider demographic of potential buyers than any new EV available at the time no matter how much the tech has moved on.
You talk like no-one buys 10 year old used cars.
people do buy 10 year old ICE cars because the technology is fundementally the same and has been for a good 20 years now as ICE development has plateaued. My 2004 Saab 9-5 will do 30MPG as will my 2023 GR86. Both have similar power and both have similar range. (Well ironically the Saab has longer range as it holds about 20 litres more fuel!)
dmsims said:
Seems to be about £4K per year price loss for GR86 and MG4
That is just a flat out lie. BricktopST205 said:
If I would have bought that Model 3 or MG4 I would be 10-15k out of pocket already instead of only a few thousand whilst still being able to drive something enjoyable and saving me money net compared to the EV offerings. Then 5 years down the line if I decide to sell and buy another new car I have a lot more capital to put down on the next.
Thats a nonsensical argument. Followed to its conclusion, no one would ever buy a small car because a diesel A6 can do 700 miles on a tank!
braddo said:
More desperate nonsense. Search for Leafs on autotrader and see how many are £1500. Currently, none.
Even if there were, in what way is that worse than 10 year old diesels that are £1500 and one bill away from being scrap?
Other than the diesel car having absolutely no future value whatsoever, whereas the Leaf has inherent value in its materials including the battery, with an industry that is growing to be able to support cheaper battery refurbishment and replacement.
This is about mass transport, not GR86s and other rare enthusiast cars.
https://youtu.be/Ur47okU3eUk?si=eL6FGK3x08Uc-4Kb Even if there were, in what way is that worse than 10 year old diesels that are £1500 and one bill away from being scrap?
Other than the diesel car having absolutely no future value whatsoever, whereas the Leaf has inherent value in its materials including the battery, with an industry that is growing to be able to support cheaper battery refurbishment and replacement.
This is about mass transport, not GR86s and other rare enthusiast cars.
There isn't any 10 year old diesels with under 100k for sale that are either a) running or b) not cat wright off.
The Leaf has the same scrap value as any other car infact a lot of scrap dealers will not even take them.
BricktopST205 said:
740EVTORQUES said:
10 year old Teslas are already showing how they will have a very viable future for many years.
A 350 mile EV at 10 years old and maybe 250 miles will be a great used buy, that’s already happening.
Old ICE cars will be like vinyl. Some will want them and will eulogise about the analogue experience in this digital world, most will not and with the exception of a few rare pressings, most will be worth pennies
Teslas yes but they are the outlier but the vast majority of tat pushed by legacy manufacturers however will not. Look at a 2 year old mini electric or Honda-E. Will be absolutely worthless in 8 years time. Can barely do 100 miles. A 350 mile EV at 10 years old and maybe 250 miles will be a great used buy, that’s already happening.
Old ICE cars will be like vinyl. Some will want them and will eulogise about the analogue experience in this digital world, most will not and with the exception of a few rare pressings, most will be worth pennies
As for a Honda E or Mini, they won't be.
The average journey is the UK is tiny. At worst they will make a perfect second car, especially with home charging. It really isn't hard to comprehend.
monkfish1 said:
That last sentance is where the wheels come off your plan.
Ive said this before, but ill do it again. Once EV's reach critical mass, lets say over 50%, which assuming the mandates are met will be in the 10-15 year window from now.
As Evanivitch has already pointed out, petrol stations are in decline already and have been for a long time. What do you think will happen when 50% of their market and hence their revenue stream is gone?
Clue, they will stop selling petrol the second its no longer profitable and use the site for something else. Bearing in mind the fixed overheads are considerable.
Whilst im sure petrol will be available in 20 years, at a price, it wont be freely available whereever and whenever you need it. It will become a mission to plan a journey around the availability of it. As that gets harder, interest in ICE will wane fast, as essentially, they will become useless.
Against that backdrop, i still say investing in your GR86 for the long term is bonkers. In 25 years time, almost no one will be interested.
But your money, so do as you please.
Petrol stations haven't been profitable from their sale of fuel for decades and the real reason why they have gotten fewer. Again the logistics industry will be using ICE for the forseeable future and they will need it too.Ive said this before, but ill do it again. Once EV's reach critical mass, lets say over 50%, which assuming the mandates are met will be in the 10-15 year window from now.
As Evanivitch has already pointed out, petrol stations are in decline already and have been for a long time. What do you think will happen when 50% of their market and hence their revenue stream is gone?
Clue, they will stop selling petrol the second its no longer profitable and use the site for something else. Bearing in mind the fixed overheads are considerable.
Whilst im sure petrol will be available in 20 years, at a price, it wont be freely available whereever and whenever you need it. It will become a mission to plan a journey around the availability of it. As that gets harder, interest in ICE will wane fast, as essentially, they will become useless.
Against that backdrop, i still say investing in your GR86 for the long term is bonkers. In 25 years time, almost no one will be interested.
But your money, so do as you please.
What are they going to do with all that excess fuel that comes from the refining process of crude oil.
We going to stop using oil for everything? Fun little fact for you as long as we need oil to make things petrol will be made as a by-product. Edited by BricktopST205 on Thursday 9th May 13:14
confused_buyer said:
FamousPheasant said:
How have you come to that number? From Autotrader: 1 year old GR86 are starting around 30K with a new list price of 33K. 1 year old MG4 with a new list price of 32K listing around 21K.
I see MG have subsequently released a bigger battery 77kwh trophy model, which perhaps explains the depreciation.
You can get some pretty big discounts off a new MG4 which explains it. No one will pay £25k for a year old one when you can get a new one for £24k.I see MG have subsequently released a bigger battery 77kwh trophy model, which perhaps explains the depreciation.
Good point - just seen that clear out trophy models are available for 26k at the moment - that does seem a good deal. I would presume the folk that bought them last year have perhaps taken more of a bath though - but that is hardly MG specific.
BricktopST205 said:
It was more the cars that can barely make 100 miles real world range will be pretty worthless and 1 big bill will send them to scrap. That is the vast majorty of EV's available today.
What planet are you on where the vast majority of EVs can barely make 100 miles in real world range?Where are you getting this stuff from??
FamousPheasant said:
Good point - just seen that clear out trophy models are available for 26k at the moment - that does seem a good deal. I would presume the folk that bought them last year have perhaps taken more of a bath though - but that is hardly MG specific.
BricktopST205 said:
Who will want a car that does 180 miles when cars will do 300-400+ real world miles in the future.
Here's a thought - people who don't do more than 180 miles in a day?Which is a lot of people.
It's like saying who will want a family car that has 200bhp now when family cars will have 400bhp in the future. For a big chunk of people, that just doesn't matter.
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