Tesla unlikely to Survive (Vol. 3)
Discussion
coetzeeh said:
Production at Berlin plant now highly unlikely in 2021 given environmental push back.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-hearin...
That won't affect anything re tesla. I thought they'd deleted that story. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-hearin...
coetzeeh said:
Great month for BEV car sales in the UK selling nearly 4 x the volume as Diesel cars - BEV market share 18+% YTD.
Tesla sold 3k cars out of 22k BEV's. A further ~5k sales required to exceed the Q3 sales volume.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/12/battery-ev-uptake-d...
YTD about 26k out of 163k 16%, last year 19k out of 86k 22%. Sales up, share down 6%Tesla sold 3k cars out of 22k BEV's. A further ~5k sales required to exceed the Q3 sales volume.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/12/battery-ev-uptake-d...
Elon's musician ex, Grimes, has released a song about him 
Lyrics said:
Baby
Would you still love me
Out on Europa?
Or will you forget?
La, la, la, la
Baby
How can I compare
To the adventure out there?
Sail away
To the cold expanse of space
Even love
Couldn't keep you in your place
But can't you love me like that?
Can't you need me like that?
If I loved him any less
I'd make him stay
But he has to be the best
Player of games
If I loved you any less
I'd make you stay
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
I'm in love with the greatest gamer
But he'll always love the game
More than he loves me (oh, oh)
Sail away
To the cold expanse of space
Even love
Couldn't keep you in your place
But can't you love me like that?
Can't you need me like that?
If I loved him any less
I'd make him stay
But he has to be the best
Player of games
If I loved him any less
I'd make him stay
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Would you still love me
Out on Europa?
Or will you forget?
La, la, la, la
Baby
How can I compare
To the adventure out there?
Sail away
To the cold expanse of space
Even love
Couldn't keep you in your place
But can't you love me like that?
Can't you need me like that?
If I loved him any less
I'd make him stay
But he has to be the best
Player of games
If I loved you any less
I'd make you stay
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
I'm in love with the greatest gamer
But he'll always love the game
More than he loves me (oh, oh)
Sail away
To the cold expanse of space
Even love
Couldn't keep you in your place
But can't you love me like that?
Can't you need me like that?
If I loved him any less
I'd make him stay
But he has to be the best
Player of games
If I loved him any less
I'd make him stay
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
Player of games
NDNDNDND said:
If that is substantiated, it is a problem. But the author needs to understand that, say, Waymo can only drive where the 3D scanner has been before, and they call that “self driving.”IIRC Musk didn’t say “this is what you’re buying” but instead said “this is what is coming”. That’s an important distinction.
skwdenyer said:
NDNDNDND said:
If that is substantiated, it is a problem. But the author needs to understand that, say, Waymo can only drive where the 3D scanner has been before, and they call that “self driving.”IIRC Musk didn’t say “this is what you’re buying” but instead said “this is what is coming”. That’s an important distinction.
Saying that the Autopilot demonstration was actually only a mock-up of what was going to happen in the future is disingenuous. It was clearly framed as a demonstration of the current status of the Autopilot technology.
It's arguably fraud.
RobDickinson said:
Musks mind travels faster than everyone elses, due to relativity his two weeks is approx 6 months in our own mortal time frames.
I wish he'd invent a rocket to carry him at near the speed of light and he would take a trip away in it for a few months, that'd be 60 years on Earth and we'd never have to hear from him again. Bliss 
NDNDNDND said:
skwdenyer said:
NDNDNDND said:
If that is substantiated, it is a problem. But the author needs to understand that, say, Waymo can only drive where the 3D scanner has been before, and they call that “self driving.”IIRC Musk didn’t say “this is what you’re buying” but instead said “this is what is coming”. That’s an important distinction.
Saying that the Autopilot demonstration was actually only a mock-up of what was going to happen in the future is disingenuous. It was clearly framed as a demonstration of the current status of the Autopilot technology.
It's arguably fraud.
Re Musk, all I can say is I watched the video in question at the time and did not at any point feel I was being offered something available now or indeed especially soon. I understood it to be under “special conditions.” Of course you optimise the hell out of the first demo - pre-creating a map falls into that category of “aggressive optimisation” - product demos have been forever thus, it is often times how you raise capital.
"For years we have wondered if what’s going on at Tesla is just a s
tshow or a scam"
Yeah balanced opening position there..
"after reading a new report from the New York Times"
mkay lets have a look at that
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/technology/tesl...
By Cade Metz and Neal E. Boudette
Now an article by Neal is about as far as we need to read tbh, noted tslaq hit piece writer
"interviews with 19 people who worked on the project over the last decade"
OK they talked to 19 ex tesla employees
"Mr. Musk and a top Tesla lawyer did not respond to multiple email requests for comment for this article over several weeks, including a detailed list of questions. "
But no one actually at tesla and didnt attempt to contact Karpathy. and lets face it Neal is the last person Tesla are likely to respond to anyhow.
"The statement surprised and concerned some working on the project"
They talked to 19 people, but couldnt mention how many were surprised and concerned nor their position on the project?
So the whole article actually boils down to this stuff:
"In addition, some who have long worked on autonomous vehicles for other companies — as well as seven former members of the Autopilot team — have questioned Tesla’s practice of constant modifications to Autopilot and F.S.D."
So the competition and 7 of the 19 they talked to had some questions over frequency of updates, I have talks about that at work ever week.
"But three people who worked on the project said Mr. Musk had repeatedly told members of the Autopilot team that humans could drive with only two eyes and that this meant cars should be able to drive with cameras alone."
Now we are down to 3 out of 19 people interviewed didnt think they could execute a vision only stack, which they have. I wonder why they are ex employees?
For years I have wondered if what’s going on at the New York Times is just a stshow or a scam...
tshow or a scam"Yeah balanced opening position there..
"after reading a new report from the New York Times"
mkay lets have a look at that
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/technology/tesl...
By Cade Metz and Neal E. Boudette
Now an article by Neal is about as far as we need to read tbh, noted tslaq hit piece writer
"interviews with 19 people who worked on the project over the last decade"
OK they talked to 19 ex tesla employees
"Mr. Musk and a top Tesla lawyer did not respond to multiple email requests for comment for this article over several weeks, including a detailed list of questions. "
But no one actually at tesla and didnt attempt to contact Karpathy. and lets face it Neal is the last person Tesla are likely to respond to anyhow.
"The statement surprised and concerned some working on the project"
They talked to 19 people, but couldnt mention how many were surprised and concerned nor their position on the project?
So the whole article actually boils down to this stuff:
"In addition, some who have long worked on autonomous vehicles for other companies — as well as seven former members of the Autopilot team — have questioned Tesla’s practice of constant modifications to Autopilot and F.S.D."
So the competition and 7 of the 19 they talked to had some questions over frequency of updates, I have talks about that at work ever week.
"But three people who worked on the project said Mr. Musk had repeatedly told members of the Autopilot team that humans could drive with only two eyes and that this meant cars should be able to drive with cameras alone."
Now we are down to 3 out of 19 people interviewed didnt think they could execute a vision only stack, which they have. I wonder why they are ex employees?
For years I have wondered if what’s going on at the New York Times is just a s
tshow or a scam...Wasn't it the Times that got caught out for it's fraudulent Tesla review almost a decade ago? Oh and they later promoted the "reporter" to senior editor.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/t...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/t...
ZesPak said:
Wasn't it the Times that got caught out for it's fraudulent Tesla review almost a decade ago? Oh and they later promoted the "reporter" to senior editor.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/t...
https://www.tesla.com/blog/most-peculiar-test-drivehttps://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/t...
it was..
Looks like Mercedes have been given legal permission for L3 in Germany up to 37mph on autobahn slow moving traffic
No doubt that will grate on Elon a bit, especially if its successful in which case, regulators may mandate that similar self driving technology must be used to be granted use on public roads. That would make Tesla vision only system a non starter. Early days of course, but you can see it shaping up this way.
No doubt that will grate on Elon a bit, especially if its successful in which case, regulators may mandate that similar self driving technology must be used to be granted use on public roads. That would make Tesla vision only system a non starter. Early days of course, but you can see it shaping up this way.
soupdragon1 said:
Looks like Mercedes have been given legal permission for L3 in Germany up to 37mph on autobahn slow moving traffic
No doubt that will grate on Elon a bit, especially if its successful in which case, regulators may mandate that similar self driving technology must be used to be granted use on public roads. That would make Tesla vision only system a non starter. Early days of course, but you can see it shaping up this way.
Vision only isn’t the issue for Tesla here.No doubt that will grate on Elon a bit, especially if its successful in which case, regulators may mandate that similar self driving technology must be used to be granted use on public roads. That would make Tesla vision only system a non starter. Early days of course, but you can see it shaping up this way.
For level 3 the car must manage a controlled hand back to the driver while still driving until it does, I recall about 7 seconds is the duration. The principle is the driver needs to become aware they are needed and have time to put down their laptop or whatever they’re doing and assess the driving situation before they need to take control. Tesla aren’t doing anything in this space that we’ve seen. You get a bong and that’s it, your problem, system disengaged, it could be and often is mid corner.
It doesn’t matter how infrequent that take over might be needed, if it was never needed it would be level 5, level 4 at a push, and Tesla are heading for that without offering the intermediate levels.
Heres Johnny said:
Vision only isn’t the issue for Tesla here.
For level 3 the car must manage a controlled hand back to the driver while still driving until it does, I recall about 7 seconds is the duration. The principle is the driver needs to become aware they are needed and have time to put down their laptop or whatever they’re doing and assess the driving situation before they need to take control. Tesla aren’t doing anything in this space that we’ve seen. You get a bong and that’s it, your problem, system disengaged, it could be and often is mid corner.
It doesn’t matter how infrequent that take over might be needed, if it was never needed it would be level 5, level 4 at a push, and Tesla are heading for that without offering the intermediate levels.
The reality is there is very little difference between L2 and L3, L3 still requires "a driver must still be alert and ready to take over where necessary." so almost no difference to auto pilot in the real worldFor level 3 the car must manage a controlled hand back to the driver while still driving until it does, I recall about 7 seconds is the duration. The principle is the driver needs to become aware they are needed and have time to put down their laptop or whatever they’re doing and assess the driving situation before they need to take control. Tesla aren’t doing anything in this space that we’ve seen. You get a bong and that’s it, your problem, system disengaged, it could be and often is mid corner.
It doesn’t matter how infrequent that take over might be needed, if it was never needed it would be level 5, level 4 at a push, and Tesla are heading for that without offering the intermediate levels.
Tesla are capable of more than a bong, the car does have a no hands procedure
Dave Hedgehog said:
The reality is there is very little difference between L2 and L3, L3 still requires "a driver must still be alert and ready to take over where necessary." so almost no difference to auto pilot in the real world
Tesla are capable of more than a bong, the car does have a no hands procedure
I beg to differTesla are capable of more than a bong, the car does have a no hands procedure
Level 2 is a driver must be in control at all times
Level 3 is the driver must be available to take over within 7 seconds
If you can't understand the difference and the implication of the car having to always be sure it can cope for the next 7 seconds v it can abort at will then I'm glad you're not in charge. Just good SAE Levels and you'll see a major shift between Level 2 and Level 3.
The "when the feature requests, you must drive" can not be instant and the various documents discuss this. BBC quite 10 seconds
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56906145
Just think about it for a few minutes. You're playing cards, the car is mid corner and wants you to take over... how long do you think you'd need to be back in control and what should happen if the car doesn't know what to do until you have? What are Tesla doing in this area? I'm not aware of any managed disconnect from Tesla at present.
Edited by Heres Johnny on Friday 10th December 10:39
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