So 4 flyaway races complete, 4 different winners and now back to Europe. But have we learnt anything about who might become world champion this year?

Vettel:
Tops the points board (just) and the Red Bull seems to work well on the warmer circuits, of which there's a few to come. If he gets a run of pole positions, he will be favourite.

Hamilton:
Scored in every race so looking consistent. Also seems to have a McLaren that is on the pace from the start. A lot will depend if he can stay close to the front of the table throughout the season.

Webber:
Possibly the dark horse of the race. 4 fourth places doesn't sound much, but he has more points than 3 of the season's winners. 4th all the way through the season won't be enough though - he has to beat his team-mate to a win soon to really boost his chances.

Button:
Only 2 points finishes from 4 races is not consistent enough. Still in the hunt, but could do with outqualifying Hamilton on a few occasions, especially if there are any races where the McLarens dominate.

Alonso:
As usual is outperforming the car. All depends whether Ferrari improve the car or not. Get the feeling the Ferrari doesn't have to become the best car on the grid for Alonso to win the title, it just needs enough improvement for him to keep picking up good points. And he's already bagged a decent number of points whilst the car is bad.

Rosberg:
He's proved he can qualify well and win, and he has decent points on the board. But can the car get him consistently onto the podium. And will he lose points to his team mate?

Raikkonen:
I think he has a chance, as the Lotus seems quick enough and Kimi has hit the ground running.

Schumacher:
A long way back in the points, but he's in one of the best cars on the grid. Needs a podium soon and a win soon after to establish himself and maybe put a little fear back into his rivals.

I think that when the shouting is over it will be LH, SV and JB in with a shout when we get to the final 4-5 races. MW might still be there on the maths but (and I hate to say it as I like his style) I think his ship sailed in 2010.

If you are driving a Merc, Genii or Ferrari you will not be WDC's this year, but your performances might just be critical in deciding who is...

Look at the times for pre-season testing.

Unless something odd happens, the teams will finish in the order that they tested in.

Advantages are certainly not as big as previous years.

I think the key advantage will be who can make the most of their car most of the time. The whole "operating window" thing. Which is harder to spot but it looks to me like McLaren can get in that window more of the time.

Too early to say for WDC but any of the following could, particularly if their teams can pull a slight advantage.

I've tried to classify them in who I think is most likely.
1)Button
1)Hamilton
1)Vettel
4)Webber
5)Kimi
6)Rosberg
7)Schumacher
8)Alonso

I'd add Grosjean too, he has improved a lot since his first outing in 2009.

I think even the Sauber drivers have an influence this year too and a race win or three must be on the cards.

I think you will find that is last non-point finish would have barely gotten him in front of Hamilton if he had finished without the flat tyre. At that point, Hamilton was 2 places behind, so from the 3 point difference, would have been ahead by a point. If he had taken Rosberg, it would have been 3 points ahead. Hardly anything substantial. On equal account, if Hamilton hadn't had that badluck with two pitstops (not his fault) in the same race, surely he would be further ahead in the points.

Not that it matters really.

From what we've seen so far, and if the current form continues, McLaren *should* dominate, and yet so far it's not looking good, and of course it's the pitstops letting them down. I heard them saying on the BBC that it was due to them having a titanium axle and aluminium nuts, where IIRC the other teams use aluminium axles and nuts (could have been steel nuts). I know McLaren are proud of their immense engineering nous, but the last couple of races it's bitten them on the arse. If they can iron out these issues then Lewis and Jenson should be right at the business end of things come Abu Dhabi, Interlagos and Austin.

Vettel is looking good but has admitted on Autosport that the confidence that Red Bull have had the last 2 seasons has diminished somewhat. He can never be underestimated though, he's already proven what he can do in a mediocre car (Toro Rosso, Monza 2008) and will definitely be in the running. Webber could spring a surprise, although he's not been on the podium he's shown fantastic consistency so far, if he can keep it up, maybe grab a win or two he could well do it (would love to see Christian Horner's face if the 'wrong' RB driver won the title, he's already said he doesn't think that having 2 champions in the team is the best idea, so I'd like to see Mark come good. Adrian Newey will always have tricks up his sleeve to improve the car, so I can definitely see them being up there.

Ferrari aren't in the best of shape, with the exception of Alonso. As much as I dislike his attitude (get his own way or toys out the pram, see 2007 season and Hockenheim & Abu Dhabi 2010), he is probably the best driver of the current crop, and if the Ferrari was much better I could see him leading the championship right now. Sad to say they need to dump Massa though; with the exception of the 2008 season (which may/may not have had 'outside assistance', but I'm not opening that can of worms right now) he's ben distinctly average, and this isn't what Ferrari need, they need someone who's able to run at 98% of Alonso's pace to assist him and the team in winning both championships, but first they need to get their car sorted; I think that the testing ban has affected Ferrari more than any other team, in the old days they could just drive the car straight out of the factory and onto their own private test track, so if they wanted to they could have had a 24/7 testing programme going on.

Mercedes is a difficult one. The car is fundamentally very fast, and they've managed to get the jump on rivals with their clever double DRS; however it is of limited use in the race, so they need to do what they did in China, go all out for front row grid positions and try and do a 2011 Red Bull. I can see Schumacher leaving at the end of this year, possibly picking up the odd podium along the way, and maybe even a victory, but I doubt he'll be in the title race. Rosberg is a tricky one; he could either have had his "Hakkinen moment" as I've seen it described here before, and now he's won he'll keep on doing it, or be a one hit wonder; again this will come down to repeating what Red Bull did last year, go for pole and control the race from there.

Lotus are an outside bet, but I can definitely see them picking up at least one victory this year, although I'm not entirely sure which of their drivers will do it. Kimi has came back and proven what many of us already knew; he's one of the fastest guys on the planet, and it's only a matter of time before he wins again, but there are cash flow problems with the team and the whole situation with Lotus (another can of worms I don't really fancy opening right now), and I'm not sure if the development team can keep up with the likes of McLaren, and this could be the downfall of Kimi's title chances. Grosjean has come back after that half season at Renault, having won the GP2 championship, and I doubted he'd be any better than before, but he's been doing extremely well this year, and if it weren't for the reliability issues he's suffered, he'd be right in the mix at the moment. It's a tough one to call which of the two drivers can claim the first win for this team under the Lotus name. But again, I'm not sure if the cash flow issues will affect the team's development of the car, and leave them left behind come mid season.


I'm beginning to think I should have taken up journalism at University rather than Mathematics and Engineering.

It seems to me that Hamilton and Button are most likely to lose points to their team mate.