Is the bubble about to burst?

[NJH]

You must be right though, as much as we all know the technology is changing it isn't changing that fast and regardless, anyone wanting a more analog experience is not going to buy the latest models anyway.

The Japanese analogy is something I have been thinking about for several years now, its really difficult to see what it is that is going to happen in the UK that will do anything much to change the current model (low interest rates, low macro economic growth, low wage inflation for 90+% of people, continuing income inflation for the wealthy = asset inflation). It just seems to be driving one way with nothing to cause the money to go elsewhere. I suppose if a left wing government came into power and introduced an asset tax it would shake things up, probably never happen though.

[HokumPokum]

I'm afraid it isn't a big assumption to have historic cars on the road. Cars go through wear and tear. Through mots and natural attrition, only cherished historic cars stay on the road and they will be in the minority in the future where most vehicles will have ultra dense battery packs as the main means of propulsion.

Checkout apple's project Titan and their massive investment. Even most major auto manufacturers agree that in a few years, the ICE will become irrelevant. Hence I think it could play a big part in marque brand's most exciting cars becoming 24 carat gold investments.

Whether this is currently too carried away or too much of a bubble is hard to say but I think a higher baseline price for GT cars is already reflective of the above.

Nb: I am a Porsche GT car owner so my views ARE biased.

[NJH]

...and the all say driverless cars a few years away as well. I am a systems engineer by trade so I know how difficult and how long complex engineering takes to properly develop, when they say a few years I translate that in my mind into 20+.

[kencom]

I do agree, 25 years time, they will think it mad that 100's of cars could be bustling about jockeying for space at speeds only restocked by someone's right foot and a fear of prosecution. I am sure they will be viewed as dealdly instruments for anyone to wield.

As much as I love my car (GTR), I do wish it would drive me home after a 12hr night shift, sometimes, I am sure it would be safer than a tired driver.

It will be a sad day when the cars are driver free, I think the race tracks will be popular though (for the wealthy).

[drmark]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

My practice covers 200 square miles of rural England where street lights are still being introduced, and mobile signal and broadband access are still only a dream for some. I think I will be driving old school cars for decades yet. The only things self driving around here are tractors and combine harvesters

[Alpinestars]

Digga said:

Alpinestars said:

Agreed. The very low miles (matters to some) sets it apart from some of the others. I still think it might take a while to shift.

Someone nearly as daft, but considerable wealthier than me will be along soon to ask nicely if they might be allowed buy it. Please. Thank you.

Apparently it sold.

[Dave Thornton]

av185 said:

... will take a further hit into the autumn or and winter with the usual seasonal sports car downturn...

When's the best time to buy a £40-£50k Porsche, maximising seasonal downturn? I once read that the secondhand market was at its lowest in the 3rd week of November.

[SRT Hellcat]

So this is the era I have to look forward to. Driverless cars. A cashless society. EV's only. Not for me. You are no better off than a battery hen. We all seem (or most) to be sleep walking towards the precipice. Christ what happened to the right to individual choice. You work your nuts off to achieve your goals and ambitions and then to be neutered. Sod that. I spent over three hours behind the wheel of my 65 Mustang at Oulton Park on Wednesday. I drove 200 miles home afterwards. I managed it all on my own with no electronic interference. God that made me feel good to be alive. Feeling good to be alive is surely where it is at or do I have it all wrong ?.
A quote that will always stay with me.
"Racing is life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting"

Edited by SRT Hellcat on Saturday 27th August 22:42

[drmark]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I am down south too. Have a word with your local farmers - you may be surprised how far ahead of the game they are. But even though much of their kit is GPS directed ( with a man in the cab for now) they still need to take their Land Rovers off road and drive around fields. And will for many years hence.

Edited to add: actually mostly twin cab Japanese 4*4s rather than Land Rover these days.

Edited by drmark on Sunday 28th August 05:04

[ooid]

SRT Hellcat said:

So this is the era I have to look forward to. Driverless cars. A cashless society. EV's only. Not for me. You are no better off than a battery hen. We all seem (or most) to be sleep walking towards the precipice. Christ what happened to the right to individual choice. You work your nuts off to achieve your goals and ambitions and then to be neutered.

Edited by SRT Hellcat on Saturday 27th August 22:42

I do believe all technological developments would actually liberate individuals more for their ambitions and goals, just like in the past

In terms of infrastructure, London is extremely behind, imho. So many slow and empty bus services, faulty trains, tired underground issues..Automation would clear up most of the nonsense from the current city mess and will leave all of us (pistonheads or EV heads) better road conditions finally.

Everytime I came back home from somewhere like Tokyo or Copenhagen, London feels like war-zone.

[Digga]

Alpinestars said:

Digga said:

Alpinestars said:

Agreed. The very low miles (matters to some) sets it apart from some of the others. I still think it might take a while to shift.

Someone nearly as daft, but considerable wealthier than me will be along soon to ask nicely if they might be allowed buy it. Please. Thank you.

Apparently it sold.

There's a lot of us out there.

What's that quote about a fool and their money being lucky to get together in the first place?

[drmark]

Yes. Odd how so many fools seem to have so much money. And many of the cars are beyond the reach of all the wise folk.

[Legacywr]

Which car are we discussing?

[av185]

Dave Thornton said:

av185 said:

... will take a further hit into the autumn or and winter with the usual seasonal sports car downturn...

When's the best time to buy a £40-£50k Porsche, maximising seasonal downturn? I once read that the secondhand market was at its lowest in the 3rd week of November.

Depends on the exact model, who you are buying from and how desirable. The 'golden rule' for cabriolets was always to sell and get the best price before the 22nd of August and athough seasonal fluctuations are not as large as they once were (global warming has no doubt helped , the run up to Christmas and New year is traditionally the cheapest for buyers.....the trade have 'packed away their sheepskins' and done a runner to sunnier climes and generally don't crawl out of the woodwork to buy until January. Whilst trade book prices continue drop into January, prices rise strongly although this can be influenced by bad weather particularly snowfall.

[Frosticles]

SRT Hellcat said:

So this is the era I have to look forward to. Driverless cars. A cashless society. EV's only. Not for me. You are no better off than a battery hen. We all seem (or most) to be sleep walking towards the precipice. Christ what happened to the right to individual choice. You work your nuts off to achieve your goals and ambitions and then to be neutered. Sod that. I spent over three hours behind the wheel of my 65 Mustang at Oulton Park on Wednesday. I drove 200 miles home afterwards. I managed it all on my own with no electronic interference. God that made me feel good to be alive. Feeling good to be alive is surely where it is at or do I have it all wrong ?.
A quote that will always stay with me.
"Racing is life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting"

Edited by SRT Hellcat on Saturday 27th August 22:42

Feel exactly the same

[Alpinestars]

Legacywr said:

Which car are we discussing?

Black 991 gt3 at an OPC. <2k miles, £145k

[hornbaek]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Interest levels at zero distort reality and puts no price on risk. So people feeling good about themselves because their mortgage payments are reduced to near zero start switching into more risky assets such as motorcars. The debt has to be paid at some point and that will turn everything on its head again.

Pundits who were never interested in motorcars suddenly see this as an asset class to make a bit of taxfree money buying and selling cars. The reason why Porsches are in short supply is because a lot of speculators have entered the market that have no intentions to drive the cars but to flip them. And when this turns sour they will all try to get out at the same time and the market will be back to where it was 2 years ago. Limited edition cars will still be valuable but all the other crap will tank.

[sparta6]

for many people, car purchases are intrinsicly linked to the benefits of property price increases. When a large portion of the UK has property prices double every 7 years, engaging and/or collectible cars will shadow. With more buyers now in the market, manufacturers like Porsche are cannily producing more limited run models

[Alpinestars]

hornbaek said:

Interest levels at zero distort reality and puts no price on risk. So people feeling good about themselves because their mortgage payments are reduced to near zero start switching into more risky assets such as motorcars. The debt has to be paid at some point and that will turn everything on its head again.

Pundits who were never interested in motorcars suddenly see this as an asset class to make a bit of taxfree money buying and selling cars. The reason why Porsches are in short supply is because a lot of speculators have entered the market that have no intentions to drive the cars but to flip them. And when this turns sour they will all try to get out at the same time and the market will be back to where it was 2 years ago. Limited edition cars will still be valuable but all the other crap will tank.

Agree with most of this.

Since the global crash in 07/08, not only has money been cheap, but it's become a global market. That wasn't the case to the same extent in previous bubbles. Supply is always going to decrease, so with increased demand (for many reasons), prices go up. I'm not so sure that in the long term only prices of limited editions will go up.

[Fezzaman]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/12e4460a-37ad-11e6-9a05-...

Why pay your 2/20 split on your £xxxk worth of funds when you could spend that to cover servicing/maintenance and drive something and enjoy it now? Admittedly the kind of cars outperforming at that level are probably at a different pricepoint, but there were cars like the CSL, 550M that were 'normal' money. And I say normal in the sense that while 40k sounds like a lot in absolute terms, isn't that the going rate for a fancy specced 3 series or a Golf R nowadays?

On another note - while this thread was depressing in the sense people keep whinging about rising values of cars they've sold etc whilst others secretly hoping the bubble bursts so things are more affordable/acceptable, at least in that 'world' the cars exist, can be bought, and used, if you choose to for a given price. But this last page has really taken a turn for the worse re driverless cars, no ICE etc etc. Why can't the buggers ban booze and fags first dammit.