Is the bubble about to burst?

[PorscheGT4]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

we need houses to drop. it's the only way to do it. houses doubled in 8 years !! most people are in massive profit, and would not be in neg equity, not that neg equity matters if you are living in a house, and people moving or upgrading would be better off also.

repo's would be a tiny % for a much better long term gain to get people off rented into houses, shame is low rates have lasted too long which would cause more issues as it's been to little for ages bumping up prices !!

we will never have a glut in houses, we have a shortage !

ALso most could afford a rise, BANKS have put in place the last 4 years that you must be able to afford the house when rates go up. So imo very very few will be repo's

you are blind !!!

"Home ownership has fallen to its lowest level for a quarter of a century as soaring property prices have seen the number of people renting almost double. "

Edited by PorscheGT4 on Monday 10th August 13:29

[PPPPPP]

PorscheGT4 said:

House market needs to fall 25% imo and the only way to do that is put up rates and make it harder to buy 3rd homes esp for non nationals.

Edited by PorscheGT4 on Monday 10th August 11:25

You edited this after I had commented on your post.

I understand your sentiment, but the genie is out of the bottle (courtesy you could argue because of government policy) and to put it back is going to be very painful for newish home owners & banks.

A soft landing perhaps? Even a 2nd home should be taxed at higher tax rates, and not just for non-nationals.

[Robbo66]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Thats a second time we can agree on something. Rude, but to the point. Sometimes a necessity though.

[PorscheGT4]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

seems you have been blinded to what's going on.

houses need to drop end off, >4 million now rent the ave wage earner has been priced out of house ownership !

All low rates are doing is making pension poverty for the future !!!

to say "housing market being flooded, which leads to a glut in the supply side. "

lol laughable a flooded housing market lol I cannot stop laughing !!

Edited by PorscheGT4 on Monday 10th August 13:45

[coccodrillo]

Digga said:

Advancing prices - evidence of the market picking up - often draw a lot of money off the side lines as people are galvanised into action, fearing that hesitation will put their dream out of reach.

That's a classic indicator of a bubble. The rush to 'get in on the action' causes the sharp acceleration in prices and this in turn brings in new speculators and it's self-perpetuating........for a while.

In any market these sharp upward price movements are inevitably the ones that correct at some point unless something has fundamentally changed to justify the new valuation. I struggle to see what has changed so fundamentally in the last two years that would rationally justify such dramatic price movements over that time.

Edited by coccodrillo on Monday 10th August 13:47

[355Chris355]

Supply in the car market is more responsive than supply in the housing market.

The pound is strong and the European markets are languishing. The result is that manufacturers divert supply to the UK.

New Car Sales have grown for 41 months in a row.
2011 1,941,253
2012 2,044,609
2013 2,264,737
2014 2,476,435
2015 2,666,244 (extrapolated from July figure)

Evidence of this in the Porsche market? Think GT3 numbers (closer to 300 than a 100). How many GT4s do you reckon will eventually make it here? Chunky premiums on list price will soon be a thing of the past. This will feed through to older models, i.e. 997 GT3.

Interest rates increases will speed up the demise of this bubble but the market is already positioned for a fall.

[david hockney]

Bubble ain't gonna burst anytime-
simple supply and demand.
Porsche supplied only 279 C2 varioram manual 993 coupes to the Uk.
If you have plenty of dollar and decide that you want to buy one today in that spec
how many decent cars will be available? not many.....it ain't easy finding one hence
prices are not likely to start falling.
I say this with conviction because I'm thinking of selling mine....

[sleep envy]

PorscheGT4 said:

houses need to drop end off, >4 million now rent the ave wage earner has been priced out of house ownership !

that's because a town the size of Milton Keynes needs to be built every year for the next 20 years in order to satiate demand

altering the purchase price up or down isn't going to make any difference if there's no available housing stock; if it's not there to be bought, it's not there to be bought at any price

now, those loopholes; can you expand on them please

[PPPPPP]

PorscheGT4 said:

seems you have been blinded to what's going on.

houses need to drop end off, >4 million now rent the ave wage earner has been priced out of house ownership !

All low rates are doing is making pension poverty for the future !!!

to say "housing market being flooded, which leads to a glut in the supply side. "

lol laughable a flooded housing market lol I cannot stop laughing !!

Hi, Do enjoy some of you posts on the Cayman R & the Boxster .

[PorscheGT4]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I am still laughing at your comments thanks, a flooded housing market with NO buyers !!! that one will keep me smiling all day.

[PorscheGT4]

sleep envy said:

that's because a town the size of Milton Keynes needs to be built every year for the next 20 years in order to satiate demand

altering the purchase price up or down isn't going to make any difference if there's no available housing stock; if it's not there to be bought, it's not there to be bought at any price

now, those loopholes; can you expand on them please

I could bring net immigration into another reason why we are short of houses 300,000 new people a year !! , but I cannot get over cmoose quote of a flooded house market, I cannot stop laughing, it's made my day

[sleep envy]

PorscheGT4 said:

sleep envy said:

that's because a town the size of Milton Keynes needs to be built every year for the next 20 years in order to satiate demand

altering the purchase price up or down isn't going to make any difference if there's no available housing stock; if it's not there to be bought, it's not there to be bought at any price

now, those loopholes; can you expand on them please

I could bring net immigration into another reason why we are short of houses 300,000 new people a year !! , but I cannot get over cmoose quote of a flooded house market, I cannot stop laughing, it's made my day

ahem

[YoungMD]

mollytherocker said:

PPPPPP said:

Agreed, but imagine their bad debts at 5%.

I am no economist, but it is doesn't take a genius to understand that a 5% base rate would be devastating to the UK.

In fact, 2.5% would probably be enough to cause a huge problem.

I am an economist and I agree, 5% interest rates are years away, a fall in house prices in the UK is indicated by no trend i have seen. Go to Europe, italy for example, people dont buy houses until they are in their late 30's early 40's, loads of people rent. The housing market in the UK has performed very well over the last 10 years for very well understood reasons, especially in London. UK property prices since the last dip have stablised nicely, and since have grown signifcnately in London with the rest of the country following...... it's crap my son will not be able to afford a house in his 20's like i could even if he gets a great job but that progress for you !

Interest rates will only rise if we see an increase in inflation, interest rates are the tool the BOE uses to control inflation, but RPI is low, i think lower than forecast and lower than the BOE ideal forecast (probably becuase of oil) so no rate rise until at least after xmas......

[PorscheGT4]

sleep envy said:

ahem

I am not your accountant ;-)

[ORD]

The housing market has already cooled off a lot. I think it's in for a pretty soft landing - i.e. slow increases in London (more than inflation, but single digit growth) and stagnation in the rest of the country. Massive house price inflation has been a London (or South East) phenomenon in the most part.

Houses are fairly cheap in most of the country (even relative to "average" incomes).

As for Porsches, I think the prices of the standard fare are fairly sensible and we will continue to see fairly gradual depreciation for the 997.2. 993 prices might drop a bit, but demand will probably still easily exceed supply. GT3 prices wont go down much unless something very drastic happens.

[PorscheGT4]

YoungMD said:

interest rates are the tool the BOE uses to control inflation, but RPI is low, .

hence they have NO idea what to do. low rates and low inflation, but you would think this 5 year stale mate would make them try some thing, all it's done it caused high house prices and future pension poverty ;-(

[sleep envy]

PorscheGT4 said:

sleep envy said:

ahem

I am not your accountant ;-)

For which I am wholeheartedly thankful.

[PorscheGT4]

sleep envy said:

Of that I am wholeheartedly thankful.

you should sell that 996 GT3 while the prices are top money though :-)

[Digga]

coccodrillo said:

Digga said:

Advancing prices - evidence of the market picking up - often draw a lot of money off the side lines as people are galvanised into action, fearing that hesitation will put their dream out of reach.

That's a classic indicator of a bubble. The rush to 'get in on the action' causes the sharp acceleration in prices and this in turn brings in new speculators and it's self-perpetuating........for a while.

Yes can be. But if you are buying to use and you've seen other car prices (Porsche or otherwise) advance, at some point you have to st or get off the pot. That's how I justified it to Mrs Digga anyway.

[YoungMD]

PorscheGT4 said:

YoungMD said:

interest rates are the tool the BOE uses to control inflation, but RPI is low, .

hence they have NO idea what to do. low rates and low inflation, but you would think this 5 year stale mate would make them try some thing, all it's done it caused high house prices and future pension poverty ;-(

Yep i agree here they have absolutely no idea, but the idea that an economist would do something different or innovative is also a long shot