Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
Mario149 said:
Completely agree. I'm a lifelong Conservative voter and fiscally right of centre, but I'd vote for Lib Dems or Labour in a heartbeat if it meant we could put a stop to this madness before we bugger it up completely.
I did some calcs last night and compared our GDP over a few years with 2 scenarios. First is where we continue with decent but not particularly exceptional/unusual growth of 2.5% p.a. with Remain, and the second with Leave entailing a drop to 1% growth for the first 4 years until we're completely out, then a sudden jump to 3.5% when the world realizes how amazing a Britain out of Europe is. Our GDP in scenario 2 only catches up with scenario 1 after *12* years! tweak scenario 2 to include an initial recession of 1% followed by a year of zero growth, then back up to 3.5% on the timescales previously mentioned, and that catchup time increases to *16+* years. Pretty much any way you sensibly tweak the numbers means that Brexit will likely do us between 10 and 20 years of damage - damage that will have to be undone after all of that to bring our infrastructure back up to par, debt under control etc. All this in the hope that after all that we will eventually be better off. I like risks, I'm a freelancer but the Brexit economic gamble is madness IMO. If only there had been some groups of experts who had warned us all this could happen before we voted....
On the plus side, if it all does go tits up, supercars might go back to sensible prices which would be nice. But as much as I might fancy another F355 at £35K like my old one, it's probably not enough of a payoff for trashing UK Plc.
Scary reading.....and yet, as quoted by Colonel Melchett in the brilliant Blackadder goes Forth....'the (Brexiteers)British spirit and failure to look the true facts in the face will see them through! 'I did some calcs last night and compared our GDP over a few years with 2 scenarios. First is where we continue with decent but not particularly exceptional/unusual growth of 2.5% p.a. with Remain, and the second with Leave entailing a drop to 1% growth for the first 4 years until we're completely out, then a sudden jump to 3.5% when the world realizes how amazing a Britain out of Europe is. Our GDP in scenario 2 only catches up with scenario 1 after *12* years! tweak scenario 2 to include an initial recession of 1% followed by a year of zero growth, then back up to 3.5% on the timescales previously mentioned, and that catchup time increases to *16+* years. Pretty much any way you sensibly tweak the numbers means that Brexit will likely do us between 10 and 20 years of damage - damage that will have to be undone after all of that to bring our infrastructure back up to par, debt under control etc. All this in the hope that after all that we will eventually be better off. I like risks, I'm a freelancer but the Brexit economic gamble is madness IMO. If only there had been some groups of experts who had warned us all this could happen before we voted....
On the plus side, if it all does go tits up, supercars might go back to sensible prices which would be nice. But as much as I might fancy another F355 at £35K like my old one, it's probably not enough of a payoff for trashing UK Plc.
Edited by Mario149 on Monday 27th June 11:23
Be interesting to see how many of them would vote leave if another referendum were to run in the knowledge the EU will pull all massive funding for the car plants of Sunderland and Swindon in addition to the monumental stock market falls and sliding pound forcasts predicted this morning with obvious dire results for any short to medium term retiree who bizarrely formed the large proportion of the leave vote.
Loss of job, pitiful pension, prolonged economic instability with guaranteed recession etc etc......but its all been worth it! Course it has
Edited by av185 on Monday 27th June 11:53
ras62 said:
I was asked a question last night I though was rather a good way of looking at the issue. Imagine that today we were not yet a member of the EU. In a referendum would you vote to join or not?
With our current terms/opt outs and economic conditions etc? I'd say yes. But that's by the by, economically it's not a direct comparison. The effects of going one way do not match the effects of going the other. And we'd need to know what economic position we'd be starting from if we were out. It's like the difference between putting a plaster on when you can see what it's about to go over, and ripping one off with no idea what's underneath.ras62 said:
I was asked a question last night I though was rather a good way of looking at the issue. Imagine that today we were not yet a member of the EU. In a referendum would you vote to join or not?
Honestly leave them to their doom mongering buddy. Not worth the effort when people resort to veiled insults labelling the leaves as either racist and or uneducated. The same people who do not understand what sovereignty means lol and we're uneducated! Pleased the majority of the nation had the courage to agree with us. Osborne seems to have done an about turn this morning and thinks we'll be fine. He wants to be part of the leave negotiations too now. Next he'll no doubt be going up against Boris for leader of the tories. Funny that...Also funny how the leader of the labour party is a closet leave - he must be racist and uneducated too!For the remains - best step off a very tall building immediately!
9e 28 said:
Honestly leave them to their doom mongering buddy. Not worth the effort when people resort to veiled insults labelling the leaves as either racist and or uneducated. The same people who do not understand what sovereignty means lol and we're uneducated! Pleased the majority of the nation had the courage to agree with us. Osborne seems to have done an about turn this morning and thinks we'll be fine. He wants to be part of the leave negotiations too now. Next he'll no doubt be going up against Boris for leader of the tories. Funny that...Also funny how the leader of the labour party is a closet leave - he must be racist and uneducated too!
For the remains - best step off a very tall building immediately!
There has been a lot of insulting and labeling (in the same way you labeled anyone who voted remain as not having a 'modicum of intelligence') but you can't just dismiss any negative economic forward projections as 'doom mongering'For the remains - best step off a very tall building immediately!
Edited by WCZ on Monday 27th June 12:50
Edited by WCZ on Monday 27th June 12:51
Edited by WCZ on Monday 27th June 13:00
av185 said:
with obvious dire results for any short to medium term retiree who bizarrely formed the large proportion of the leave vote.
The question to ask is how many of those retirees or near retirees are on defined benefit pensions. In which case it would be a case of I'm all right Jack sod you, rather than did I forget to close the front door, dear...Edited by Harris_I on Monday 27th June 16:09
Interesting article on banking jobs. I'm sure there will be a fair few companies taking advantage of the 'Brexit' to cut jobs as it's a perfect excuse to do it.
If this does happen, the ripple effect will be felt across many other sectors as their reduction in spending will hit other jobs, housing as well as assets such as cars etc.
If this does happen, the ripple effect will be felt across many other sectors as their reduction in spending will hit other jobs, housing as well as assets such as cars etc.
9e 28 said:
I'm in my mid 40s and welcome interest rate rises. 5-6% rate was the norm when I was making my way up the ladder and I'd like to see this happen again.
Quite possibly a strong argument as to why we currently have cars selling for such premiums, or the value of precious metals rising, because these type of yields are no longer available. I know personally that if the banks were offering me 5-6% again, I'd have more cash and less assets, including cars and gold, but I can't see that happening any time soon!ras62 said:
I was asked a question last night I though was rather a good way of looking at the issue. Imagine that today we were not yet a member of the EU. In a referendum would you vote to join or not?
Not a great question. Lives, companies, pensions schemes, etc etc have been built during membership and those will suffer as a result of a leave vote. Untangling something is not the same as deciding whether to come in when you've never been in. Who knows whether Brexit will work or not. The pertinent question is whether one is willing to jeapordise the status quo (however good or bad it is), for an unknown. We've already been given a clue as to what the markets think of the unknown, and brexiters have been backtracking on immigration controls and spending on the NHS. So what exactly are we going to achieve?
One reason older people were more likely to vote for Brexit is this:
"HEATH LIED TO US"
http://campaignforanindependentbritain.org.uk/brit...
My father still bangs on about it to this day!
"HEATH LIED TO US"
http://campaignforanindependentbritain.org.uk/brit...
My father still bangs on about it to this day!
Alpinestars said:
ras62 said:
I was asked a question last night I though was rather a good way of looking at the issue. Imagine that today we were not yet a member of the EU. In a referendum would you vote to join or not?
Not a great question. Lives, companies, pensions schemes, etc etc have been built during membership and those will suffer as a result of a leave vote. Untangling something is not the same as deciding whether to come in when you've never been in. Who knows whether Brexit will work or not. The pertinent question is whether one is willing to jeapordise the status quo (however good or bad it is), for an unknown. We've already been given a clue as to what the markets think of the unknown, and brexiters have been backtracking on immigration controls and spending on the NHS. So what exactly are we going to achieve?
The constant referral to economics shows just how well people have been scared. It's important to understand there is much more to the situation than money and markets. What about who debates and drafts our laws? Who controls borders? Budgets?
Have you any comment on today's revelation that the EU elite will now push for the total federalisation and control of member states, countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels. They sure as hell kept that quiet....I wonder why!
ras62 said:
Given what we have now, would you join? It's a very simple question.
The constant referral to economics shows just how well people have been scared. It's important to understand there is much more to the situation than money and markets. What about who debates and drafts our laws? Who controls borders? Budgets?
Have you any comment on today's revelation that the EU elite will now push for the total federalisation and control of member states, countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels. They sure as hell kept that quiet....I wonder why!
Like I said, it's a crap question. A) it's coulda, woulda, shoulda. And b) given a choice to join now takes no account of the painful unwind that needs to take place which would not be the case with a simple (and it is simple question) join now or not. The constant referral to economics shows just how well people have been scared. It's important to understand there is much more to the situation than money and markets. What about who debates and drafts our laws? Who controls borders? Budgets?
Have you any comment on today's revelation that the EU elite will now push for the total federalisation and control of member states, countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels. They sure as hell kept that quiet....I wonder why!
The only relevant question is - you're in, do you want to stay or do you want out?
You can't undo the "in" bit.
ras62 said:
Given what we have now, would you join? It's a very simple question.
It isn't, but this is how many people distil the EU, in simple statements. Which is completely wrong. "The simplifiers" are those who are creating this mess. Head in sand, and deny that what people on the outside are thinking about Brexit.Aside, if you want a simple answer (which is about as simple as possible) - most non-EU countries in Europe seem to want in. Wonder why. Ah, I know what's coming. So all their citizens can claim benefits in the UK. Did I get that right?
ras62 said:
Have you any comment on today's revelation that the EU elite will now push for the total federalisation and control of member states, countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels. They sure as hell kept that quiet....I wonder why!
Ah, there we have it. The "EU elite" "Brussels" ... etc. As usual. The bad guys. Nice and simple, topped off with envy and a touch of hate. Well, will be much, much worse now, because there won't be any Brits actually forming part of the "EU elite" in "Brussels" and while the UK will still have to comply with EU regs just as Euro non-EU countries like Switzerland and Norway do, and still pay millions into the EU just as it does today (but with less to show for it) and so on... no-one will be there to help form those regulations so that they do not harm British interests. On the contrary, the member states on the inside will have every incentive to look after their own, thus making it as difficult as possible for Britain (what will be left of it) and shall we say England, will just have to take it lying down. Not least as far as financial services go - many other EU members are probably rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect. No wonder there are calls for the UK to leave asap.As for "control of member states" "lose their rights..." I have little doubt where you read that. Obviously very selective reporting, with an obvious agenda. Primarily, the sale of printed loo roll. I just wonder. Since the EU - "Brussels" - is made up of member states - something ignorantly forgotten - would member states agree to something that goes against their interests? Assuming, at worst, that a majority do - is there also any plan to remove Article 50 whereby a country can elect to leave? Thought as much.
Ahemm. Here we go again. Some people need their thinking done for them, so a bit of simplification and misinformation will do wonders.
And the voting demographics are, plain and simple for once, fact.
Edited by 996TT02 on Monday 27th June 22:04
ras62 said:
I was asked a question last night I though was rather a good way of looking at the issue. Imagine that today we were not yet a member of the EU. In a referendum would you vote to join or not?
How is that possibly a good way of looking at it?Solely because that isnt the choice we had, and isnt the situation we find ourselves in, that exact view is part of the reason we have seen the uk be downgraded, £140 billion wiped off uk companies and the pound drop to a low of over 30 years. Completely idiotic.
Wozy68 said:
It's done it's dusted and rightly or wrongly we are coming out of the EU
Can't you all now who wish to carry the above argument further, just sod off over to NP&E and let us get back on track with this thread please.
But it isnt is it? It hasnt actually started, and in fact, nothing actually HAS to happen at all. All we have thus far is a political sh!t show, a divided country, and an economy on the edge of implosion.Can't you all now who wish to carry the above argument further, just sod off over to NP&E and let us get back on track with this thread please.
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