Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
The signs are all there for the bubble to burst.
I have non-car friends asking for advice on buying a 911 as an investment. People saying it won't happen as there's so much cash available. Previously unwanted SC's, targas and tiptronics being tarted-up and advertised at £30k+.
The true blue chip 911's: 2.7RS, 993 GT2 etc will always be a good longer term investment. A nice manual coupe 964 C3, 3.2 or 993 C2 bought at sensible money will always be sort after. Tired cars and targas, cabs, tips are a dangerous buy at the current high prices.
If the bubble bursts they'll be a lot of speculator cars hitting the market as they're not true petrolheads and are only in it for the upside. There's obviously some appetite from PH'ers to buy at a lower price, but priorities change as these things happen. I don't expect prices to drop to 2008/2010 levels as there is more appreciation of the great value 911's offer.
Personally I'd only buy a car I'd want even if the bottom fell out of the market. These cars are for driving, not investments. Any upside is great but usually offsets maintenance, restoration and running costs.
I have non-car friends asking for advice on buying a 911 as an investment. People saying it won't happen as there's so much cash available. Previously unwanted SC's, targas and tiptronics being tarted-up and advertised at £30k+.
The true blue chip 911's: 2.7RS, 993 GT2 etc will always be a good longer term investment. A nice manual coupe 964 C3, 3.2 or 993 C2 bought at sensible money will always be sort after. Tired cars and targas, cabs, tips are a dangerous buy at the current high prices.
If the bubble bursts they'll be a lot of speculator cars hitting the market as they're not true petrolheads and are only in it for the upside. There's obviously some appetite from PH'ers to buy at a lower price, but priorities change as these things happen. I don't expect prices to drop to 2008/2010 levels as there is more appreciation of the great value 911's offer.
Personally I'd only buy a car I'd want even if the bottom fell out of the market. These cars are for driving, not investments. Any upside is great but usually offsets maintenance, restoration and running costs.
g7jhp said:
The signs are all there for the bubble to burst.
I have non-car friends asking for advice on buying a 911 as an investment. People saying it won't happen as there's so much cash available
My shoe-shine person suggested I buy The 5 Speed Allegro 1750 SS, next one to take off. I have non-car friends asking for advice on buying a 911 as an investment. People saying it won't happen as there's so much cash available
Interest rates reverting to long term historical rates will normalise the market, the good stuff will always have demand but the marginal players will get flushed out.
Liquidity can evaporate swiftly.
The point missed with all this bubble bursting talk is simple. Porsche aren't making any more air-cooled cars. Whilst not the last word in driving enjoyment they are pretty, sound nice and ooze character. They don't come with too many electronics and for what seems like an increasing amount of people, they are more desirable than the current range. Unless draconian rules are brought in regarding emissions and/or driving non green cars in town, then scant see a bubble bursting anytime soon.
Its not just limited to Porsche either. Every other vaguely interesting marque has seen a resurgence of interest in its back catalogue.
Its not just limited to Porsche either. Every other vaguely interesting marque has seen a resurgence of interest in its back catalogue.
highway said:
The point missed with all this bubble bursting talk is simple. Porsche aren't making any more air-cooled cars.
Nah, the point hasn't been missed - it's just a non-point. Just because Porsche isn't making them any more doesn't mean they can't be overvalued at a particular point in time. Values can realistically be expected to increase long term with rarity but the chart will have spikes and dips. We're in a spike at the moment.At least I hope we are. I just bought a 944 but I want a 911 some time, and that ain't going to happen if the current pricing trajectory is maintained!
FWIW, even though Porsche are no longer making front-engined sports cars, I expect my car will depreciate but I intend to enjoy it while it does so.
highway said:
The point missed with all this bubble bursting talk is simple. Porsche aren't making any more air-cooled cars. Whilst not the last word in driving enjoyment they are pretty, sound nice and ooze character. They don't come with too many electronics and for what seems like an increasing amount of people, they are more desirable than the current range. Unless draconian rules are brought in regarding emissions and/or driving non green cars in town, then scant see a bubble bursting anytime soon.
Its not just limited to Porsche either. Every other vaguely interesting marque has seen a resurgence of interest in its back catalogue.
There is some truth in what you say, but where we are now is not sensible, i mean SC's selling for north of £30k, 3.2 £40k+, a decent 3.2 should be £25k. Your assumption would be correct if there is really a big rise in people that want old 911's that will remain, and i don't think thats the case, some people, me included love 911's especially air cooled, but there are many people that don't have our rose tinted glasses and hate the heating, oil smell, racket of trash cans being knocked over when you start the engine etc etc etc .... these fly by night investors and trend followers will go and with them the speculation and inflated valuesIts not just limited to Porsche either. Every other vaguely interesting marque has seen a resurgence of interest in its back catalogue.
highway said:
The point missed with all this bubble bursting talk is simple. Porsche aren't making any more air-cooled cars.
That is what most people use as a justification for the price increases of late. Logical, is it not?Er, no.
There are many items apart from cars that are not being made in the way they were made before.
That alone is pretty meaningless.
Desirability is multi faceted and "very rare" "very old" "very fast" etc etc does not guarantee it. There are plenty of rare, old, fast (in the case of vehicles) items that are not worth much money at all.
The signs of a bubble are very simple to see. When people spend money speculatively, i.e. the value they assign to an object is based purely upon a presumption of greater value in the future with nothing to back that presumption up, then you have a stack of cards. If you have an object, that, based on its nature has been rather consistently valued at £X for a number of years, nothing has changed in its nature to make it worth five times £X over a year or two.
And that is what is happening today.
Or in reference to desirability, that of certain cars today is again very strongly related to perceived future value, and not on the nature of the vehicle itself. You see it all the time. People who previously barely gave a second glance at a particular vehicle type, suddenly have become "knowledgeable", their first comment being "look, there's a XXXXXXX, it's worth an easy £XXXXXXXX". If it were worth 2 grand they would not be interested.
Step back for a moment and just give thought for the value that is being offered by everyday unexceptional Porsches such as 964s.
An honest evaluation will make one quickly realise that the alternatives on offer are far better value, obviously excluding that value which is speculative.
One fine day just as with a pyramid scheme someone is going to find the top of the market. The problem with that is at this rate many of them will be with speculator owners who are mostly in it for the money. As soon as they get wind of trouble, since they care little about the item they own except its value, they will start dumping. Their problem will be that the only market for their over valued items was fellow speculators-to-be, so in effect there will be no market at all, and the price crash will commence.
It will not stop until the "real" intrinsic value is reached. Which I must add will almost certainly be higher than it was pre-boom, pre-awakening to the interests of this particular vehicle type, so the fact that aircooled Porsches are no longer made, will be a factor in their real value. But only to a reasonable extent. Only to the extent where a reasonable person truly interested in aircooled Porsches will compare to what else his money can get him and conclude that he will derive more pleasure from the Porsche than the alternatives.
As an aside I think what else is happening in the market is also interesting and possibly slightly different, so 996 turbos I think have genuinely had an increase in popularity, especially among enthusiast's , a genuine increase in demand that is potentially like to stay, although I guess the truck load of 997 turbos sold may challenge this.
I don't agree. You can go buy a big arse CRT TV if you want. They are old. And cheap. And not desirable. They aren't being made anymore and they are not in demand.
I could have bought a nearly new 911 at the time I bought my 993. I preferred the looks and sound of the old car.
I'm not alone either. It's pointless debating whether the old stuff as a whole is better to drive than the newer cars. I spent Thursday in a 991 GTS. It's a toweringly epic car.
Fast, comfortable and refined. It's a long way better to drive than I'd dare say most any car from the air cooled era in every quantifiable area. In my opinion.
The post above suggests the rise in values of AC 911 is driven by speculators. I don't agree. It's driven by people who want AC 911s. Hence the rise in values.
Why would a speculator buy a ratty old targa with a tip box? Why can Singer exist and be successful?
The old cars resonate with many people who couldn't afford them at the time but can now. Like the values of old Star Wars toys I see the boom largely driven by nostalgia, not speculators. When the demand fades out then maybe the prices will drop back. Can't see it myself.
I could have bought a nearly new 911 at the time I bought my 993. I preferred the looks and sound of the old car.
I'm not alone either. It's pointless debating whether the old stuff as a whole is better to drive than the newer cars. I spent Thursday in a 991 GTS. It's a toweringly epic car.
Fast, comfortable and refined. It's a long way better to drive than I'd dare say most any car from the air cooled era in every quantifiable area. In my opinion.
The post above suggests the rise in values of AC 911 is driven by speculators. I don't agree. It's driven by people who want AC 911s. Hence the rise in values.
Why would a speculator buy a ratty old targa with a tip box? Why can Singer exist and be successful?
The old cars resonate with many people who couldn't afford them at the time but can now. Like the values of old Star Wars toys I see the boom largely driven by nostalgia, not speculators. When the demand fades out then maybe the prices will drop back. Can't see it myself.
F40s and Daytonas hit £700k during the last bubble. They dropped back to £150k and £85k respectively at their lowest levels. You don't need a calculator to establish that's way more than a 20% drop.
I think the blue chip cars such as F40s, Daytonas, 2.7 RS and anything limited in number from the prestige marques will maintain value unless being oversold. I don't see 2.7 RS at 7 figures though, unless they have a very special history. If a boggo touring in lhd light yellow gets there, I made a big mistake in letting one go last month...
I think that the more common cars - 308s, post G Series Porsches - for example, will find a floor around 30-50% of their top end value. After all, £25k is fair value for a decent 3.2 and £40k should be sensible for a 308, right? Cars such as the 355 and oversold 930s should take the biggest hit. I think they'll drop by at least 50%.
I think the blue chip cars such as F40s, Daytonas, 2.7 RS and anything limited in number from the prestige marques will maintain value unless being oversold. I don't see 2.7 RS at 7 figures though, unless they have a very special history. If a boggo touring in lhd light yellow gets there, I made a big mistake in letting one go last month...
I think that the more common cars - 308s, post G Series Porsches - for example, will find a floor around 30-50% of their top end value. After all, £25k is fair value for a decent 3.2 and £40k should be sensible for a 308, right? Cars such as the 355 and oversold 930s should take the biggest hit. I think they'll drop by at least 50%.
rubystone said:
F40s and Daytonas hit £700k during the last bubble. They dropped back to £150k and £85k respectively at their lowest levels. You don't need a calculator to establish that's way more than a 20% drop.
I think the blue chip cars such as F40s, Daytonas, 2.7 RS and anything limited in number from the prestige marques will maintain value unless being oversold. I don't see 2.7 RS at 7 figures though, unless they have a very special history. If a boggo touring in lhd light yellow gets there, I made a big mistake in letting one go last month...
I think that the more common cars - 308s, post G Series Porsches - for example, will find a floor around 30-50% of their top end value. After all, £25k is fair value for a decent 3.2 and £40k should be sensible for a 308, right? Cars such as the 355 and oversold 930s should take the biggest hit. I think they'll drop by at least 50%.
This.I think the blue chip cars such as F40s, Daytonas, 2.7 RS and anything limited in number from the prestige marques will maintain value unless being oversold. I don't see 2.7 RS at 7 figures though, unless they have a very special history. If a boggo touring in lhd light yellow gets there, I made a big mistake in letting one go last month...
I think that the more common cars - 308s, post G Series Porsches - for example, will find a floor around 30-50% of their top end value. After all, £25k is fair value for a decent 3.2 and £40k should be sensible for a 308, right? Cars such as the 355 and oversold 930s should take the biggest hit. I think they'll drop by at least 50%.
highway said:
I don't agree. You can go buy a big arse CRT TV if you want. They are old. And cheap. And not desirable. They aren't being made anymore and they are not in demand.
I could have bought a nearly new 911 at the time I bought my 993. I preferred the looks and sound of the old car.
I'm not alone either. It's pointless debating whether the old stuff as a whole is better to drive than the newer cars. I spent Thursday in a 991 GTS. It's a toweringly epic car.
Fast, comfortable and refined. It's a long way better to drive than I'd dare say most any car from the air cooled era in every quantifiable area. In my opinion.
The post above suggests the rise in values of AC 911 is driven by speculators. I don't agree. It's driven by people who want AC 911s. Hence the rise in values.
Why would a speculator buy a ratty old targa with a tip box? Why can Singer exist and be successful?
The old cars resonate with many people who couldn't afford them at the time but can now. Like the values of old Star Wars toys I see the boom largely driven by nostalgia, not speculators. When the demand fades out then maybe the prices will drop back. Can't see it myself.
911SC's were old and cheap and not desirable a few years back, okay maybe they are more desirable now but £30k + even for a targa, really loads of people want them to drive ? I love the cars to drive but I know a lots don't agreeI could have bought a nearly new 911 at the time I bought my 993. I preferred the looks and sound of the old car.
I'm not alone either. It's pointless debating whether the old stuff as a whole is better to drive than the newer cars. I spent Thursday in a 991 GTS. It's a toweringly epic car.
Fast, comfortable and refined. It's a long way better to drive than I'd dare say most any car from the air cooled era in every quantifiable area. In my opinion.
The post above suggests the rise in values of AC 911 is driven by speculators. I don't agree. It's driven by people who want AC 911s. Hence the rise in values.
Why would a speculator buy a ratty old targa with a tip box? Why can Singer exist and be successful?
The old cars resonate with many people who couldn't afford them at the time but can now. Like the values of old Star Wars toys I see the boom largely driven by nostalgia, not speculators. When the demand fades out then maybe the prices will drop back. Can't see it myself.
996TT02 said:
..Step back for a moment and just give thought for the value that is being offered by everyday unexceptional Porsches such as 964s.
An honest evaluation will make one quickly realise that the alternatives on offer are far better value, obviously excluding that value which is speculative.
One fine day just as with a pyramid scheme someone is going to find the top of the market. The problem with that is at this rate many of them will be with speculator owners who are mostly in it for the money. As soon as they get wind of trouble, since they care little about the item they own except its value, they will start dumping. Their problem will be that the only market for their over valued items was fellow speculators-to-be, so in effect there will be no market at all, and the price crash will commence.
It will not stop until the "real" intrinsic value is reached. Which I must add will almost certainly be higher than it was pre-boom, pre-awakening to the interests of this particular vehicle type, so the fact that aircooled Porsches are no longer made, will be a factor in their real value. But only to a reasonable extent. Only to the extent where a reasonable person truly interested in aircooled Porsches will compare to what else his money can get him and conclude that he will derive more pleasure from the Porsche than the alternatives.
964 is a good example of one that the tide has lifted.An honest evaluation will make one quickly realise that the alternatives on offer are far better value, obviously excluding that value which is speculative.
One fine day just as with a pyramid scheme someone is going to find the top of the market. The problem with that is at this rate many of them will be with speculator owners who are mostly in it for the money. As soon as they get wind of trouble, since they care little about the item they own except its value, they will start dumping. Their problem will be that the only market for their over valued items was fellow speculators-to-be, so in effect there will be no market at all, and the price crash will commence.
It will not stop until the "real" intrinsic value is reached. Which I must add will almost certainly be higher than it was pre-boom, pre-awakening to the interests of this particular vehicle type, so the fact that aircooled Porsches are no longer made, will be a factor in their real value. But only to a reasonable extent. Only to the extent where a reasonable person truly interested in aircooled Porsches will compare to what else his money can get him and conclude that he will derive more pleasure from the Porsche than the alternatives.
Sum of the "parts" calculation is worthwhile for when the tide goes out. And yes the Mona Lisa is worth more than a 5 litres of Dulux's best
Upkeep costs also start to annoy when prices are not on the ascendancy.
No way in the world would I pay the money on the air cooled stuff now, a 964 c2 at 20k a couple of years ago fair enough, but when you have ads like this http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...
admitting the car needs work doing and has "a bit of blistering" and this description buy the seller
"I would have the bonnet, headlight surrounds and a few other bits resprayed professionally as they are starting to look a little tired. There are some very small blemishes and I managed to very subtly curb one of the rear wheels exiting a multi-story a couple of weeks ago."
alongside all of the appreciating asset b
ks and don't waste my time with offers bullst, I'm sorry but I'm out.
I think it's only a matter of time before other people start to feel the same way, and once enough people feel the same and nothing's selling things will change.
All the mega money stuff at places like JZM, 991V and RPM seems to be on sale or return as it is with the owner fronting the cars.
Even now some of the really expensive bits at JZM seem to have vanished off the website back to the owners garages.
I'm not sure when it will happen but at some point people are going to realise that £80k for a 991 GTS is a better deal than
£80k on a 993 or restored 3.2.
admitting the car needs work doing and has "a bit of blistering" and this description buy the seller
"I would have the bonnet, headlight surrounds and a few other bits resprayed professionally as they are starting to look a little tired. There are some very small blemishes and I managed to very subtly curb one of the rear wheels exiting a multi-story a couple of weeks ago."
alongside all of the appreciating asset b
ks and don't waste my time with offers bullst, I'm sorry but I'm out.I think it's only a matter of time before other people start to feel the same way, and once enough people feel the same and nothing's selling things will change.
All the mega money stuff at places like JZM, 991V and RPM seems to be on sale or return as it is with the owner fronting the cars.
Even now some of the really expensive bits at JZM seem to have vanished off the website back to the owners garages.
I'm not sure when it will happen but at some point people are going to realise that £80k for a 991 GTS is a better deal than
£80k on a 993 or restored 3.2.
Edited by pete a on Saturday 8th August 18:10
With the exception of early 911's and special stuff air cooled 911 have always represented good honest useable classic cars that are not for sitting in garages or car storage but used and appreciated that why they have such a fan base.
This latest attitude to air cooled 911's as trendy and great investments is a new fad that will pass.......
This latest attitude to air cooled 911's as trendy and great investments is a new fad that will pass.......
Crimp said:
rubystone said:
F40s and Daytonas hit £700k during the last bubble. They dropped back to £150k and £85k respectively at their lowest levels. You don't need a calculator to establish that's way more than a 20% drop.
I think the blue chip cars such as F40s, Daytonas, 2.7 RS and anything limited in number from the prestige marques will maintain value unless being oversold. I don't see 2.7 RS at 7 figures though, unless they have a very special history. If a boggo touring in lhd light yellow gets there, I made a big mistake in letting one go last month...
I think that the more common cars - 308s, post G Series Porsches - for example, will find a floor around 30-50% of their top end value. After all, £25k is fair value for a decent 3.2 and £40k should be sensible for a 308, right? Cars such as the 355 and oversold 930s should take the biggest hit. I think they'll drop by at least 50%.
This.I think the blue chip cars such as F40s, Daytonas, 2.7 RS and anything limited in number from the prestige marques will maintain value unless being oversold. I don't see 2.7 RS at 7 figures though, unless they have a very special history. If a boggo touring in lhd light yellow gets there, I made a big mistake in letting one go last month...
I think that the more common cars - 308s, post G Series Porsches - for example, will find a floor around 30-50% of their top end value. After all, £25k is fair value for a decent 3.2 and £40k should be sensible for a 308, right? Cars such as the 355 and oversold 930s should take the biggest hit. I think they'll drop by at least 50%.
highway said:
The point missed with all this bubble bursting talk is simple. Porsche aren't making any more air-cooled cars. Whilst not the last word in driving enjoyment they are pretty, sound nice and ooze character. They don't come with too many electronics and for what seems like an increasing amount of people, they are more desirable than the current range. Unless draconian rules are brought in regarding emissions and/or driving non green cars in town, then scant see a bubble bursting anytime soon.
Its not just limited to Porsche either. Every other vaguely interesting marque has seen a resurgence of interest in its back catalogue.
Porsche haven't been making any more SC's for 33 years, 3.2's for 26 years, 964's for 22 years, 993's for 18 years. Why have people decided these are all suddenly worth something since circa 2014? Its not just limited to Porsche either. Every other vaguely interesting marque has seen a resurgence of interest in its back catalogue.
Because people have excess cash, other investments haven't been generating a return and the classic car market has shown as good a return as anything else.
The car pool is like the property pool. If you can't afford Chiswick you bought in Brentword or Ealing. If you couldn't get a manual 964 coupe, people are getting what they perceive as the next best be it a manual 964 targa or tip 964 coupe. They're not driving them, it's an investment.
Most people who drive an SC, 3.2 or 964 will feel it's heavy, agricultural and dated compared to modern cars. Even enthusiasts will admit they don't want to drive aircooled cars on a daily basis.
As a whole petrolheads are a shrinking breed, the kids of today rent cars they don't buy them. PH's, 911 UK, W90/L90 bring together a limited group of petrolheads with the money to buy these cars and people talk up the demand. Some do need to sell one car to buy another. A growing number of enthusiasts buying multiple 911's and swapping between models so always to be in a car.
I'd be happy for the bubble to pop as more cars would come onto the market, there would be a greater choice and we'd all have to pay less to move between cars. To me it's about driving great cars and sharing the the experience with fellow petrolheads.
Hopefully it will burst soon, not because i don't happen to have water cooled now, or a GT3 etc, but because i have owned 911's for the past 24 years, every one i have sold at a loss after 6/7 years ownership, but i didn't buy them to make money, just to DRIVE, If you're buying just to see profit it's just a commodity, whilst nice to see it going up in value, (to offset running costs) the down side has got to be less use because of daft price it's worth.
Whilst i like to look through 'Rose Tints' about my 3.2 G50 and my 964,(back in the day) They are not worth £30K plus now, the driving experience has moved on. Not that i'm not partial to a classic, iv'e had a old 1.9 205GTI, in the past few years and currently have a Bmw 635 Csi from a similar era, whilst still expensive for old cars they are not stupid money, (both bought for my appreciation of the driving experience 205 / appreciation of the engineering 635) and did / do enjoy driving them in my earlier mentioned rose tints
If prices crash it will be nice to come onto this forum and the talk be of epic road trips and not have you seen what my car's worth, like a late 80's dinner party with the talk of property values just before the crash.
Whilst i like to look through 'Rose Tints' about my 3.2 G50 and my 964,(back in the day) They are not worth £30K plus now, the driving experience has moved on. Not that i'm not partial to a classic, iv'e had a old 1.9 205GTI, in the past few years and currently have a Bmw 635 Csi from a similar era, whilst still expensive for old cars they are not stupid money, (both bought for my appreciation of the driving experience 205 / appreciation of the engineering 635) and did / do enjoy driving them in my earlier mentioned rose tints
If prices crash it will be nice to come onto this forum and the talk be of epic road trips and not have you seen what my car's worth, like a late 80's dinner party with the talk of property values just before the crash.
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