Is the bubble about to burst?

[drmark]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

It is not clever to pay over the odds for anything but that is often a retrospective conclusion. My point is that clever people are more often than not in a position to pay over the odds. And unlikely to care as much as much as the rest of us might about the value of their new acquisition.

Being clever / successful does not necessarily make you a wise investor - or happy - but it helps. And less likely to worry about the market, because you are too busy enjoying your cars.

Edited by drmark on Sunday 28th August 19:41

Edited by drmark on Sunday 28th August 19:42

[sparta6]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

We've had these discussions in the supercar section. The explosion of the interweb and far reaching shows like Top Gear, Wheeler Dealers, Chasing Classic Cars etc, has attracted more people to the market. People who would have previously been hesitant of getting into a classic or supercar. Demand is outstripping a relatively small supply.

[Alpinestars]

sparta6 said:

We've had these discussions in the supercar section. The explosion of the interweb and far reaching shows like Top Gear, Wheeler Dealers, Chasing Classic Cars etc, has attracted more people to the market. People who would have previously been hesitant of getting into a classic or supercar. Demand is outstripping a relatively small supply.

Agreed. Except supply can only ever diminish.

[drmark]

Alpinestars said:

Agreed. Except supply can only ever diminish.

Demand can, and will, wane too.

[Alpinestars]

drmark said:

Demand can, and will, wane too.

Of course it will. But the lows will always be higher than the lows of the past in my view because of the easier access globally. People have been saying the bubble will burst for at least 3 years now. Of course it will. At some point. It's almost a truism. But does that mean the prices achieved in the last 3 years won't be repeated? I doubt it.

There will be, and I think it's starting to happen, a correction. But in economic parlance, it looks like a soft landing. Sterling is down, which increases foreign buying power, and interest rates ain't going anywhere soon.

Once the coreection/burst bubble takes hold, for those that can afford to hang on, the market will be back.

[sparta6]

Global reach of shows like Top Gear started to tip into 180+ territories in 2013. However, that was principally restricted to mainstream broadcast channels. It will be interesting to see how the gorilla of Amazon with The Grand Tour will penetrate into people's phones and influence the market further.

If we see an uplift of prices in key markets it is unlikely to be a coincidence.

[drmark]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I have obviously upset you in a former life. At least we agree that my ex 2.2s was a gorgeous car (based on your review). And its new owner is clever, generous ( as you no doubt discovered) and not overly concerned about value.
Hardly introconversial evidence but best I can do after a long Bank Holiday lunch.
Enjoy the Croc

Edited to add: actually Joe is very clever.

Edited by drmark on Sunday 28th August 20:48

[drmark]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

You don't think clever people are more likely than those less blessed to be able to afford expensive cars? You don't need to be clever to be successful but it helps. That was my point.

[drmark]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Well the facts suggest I am right and you are wrong

One of many studies showing positive correlation.

http://www.bcaresearch.com/images/Peter_PPT_presen...

Edited to add: albeitI admit a lot more to being "clever" than doing well in iQ tests

Edited by drmark on Sunday 28th August 21:40

[av185]

At the risk of being flippant how coincidental British Car Auctions did the research for that graph. :

[drmark]

av185 said:

At the risk of being flippant how coincidental British Car Auctions did the research for that graph. :

Vested interest

[drmark]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

UK graph.

http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/News/Genera...

And same relationship from studies in France, Portiugal,Italy ...
But bored now.

Edited by drmark on Sunday 28th August 22:04

[NJH]

Interesting enough to blow apart the point that was trying to be made. Yes people earning £50k PA on average have higher IQ than those earning £20K but neither are buying half million pound classic cars.

[drmark]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

No. Albeit not a religious man, Proverbs 26:4 indicates that I should quit while ahead
Goodnight.

[mollytherocker]

sparta6 said:

We've had these discussions in the supercar section. The explosion of the interweb and far reaching shows like Top Gear, Wheeler Dealers, Chasing Classic Cars etc, has attracted more people to the market. People who would have previously been hesitant of getting into a classic or supercar. Demand is outstripping a relatively small supply.

This is the key as I see it. More buyers are chasing a reducing supply of 'classics'.

The question is, will that continue? We are heading towards a world of self driving cars, and assuming we are allowed to drive them, I think many will want a weekend toy.

Combustion engined cars for driving will become what horses have become. A hobby.

[SEE YA]

NJH said:

Interesting enough to blow apart the point that was trying to be made. Yes people earning £50k PA on average have higher IQ than those earning £20K but neither are buying half million pound classic cars.

Looking around, its the middle market that has moved up the most.

No idea about this iq mentioned above.

[GT4RS]

Will there be a big crash in prices... who knows......but it does look to be cooling off for the time being.

[Digga]

SEE YA said:

NJH said:

Interesting enough to blow apart the point that was trying to be made. Yes people earning £50k PA on average have higher IQ than those earning £20K but neither are buying half million pound classic cars.

Looking around, its the middle market that has moved up the most.

No idea about this iq mentioned above.

The dichotomy is that people can be professionally clever - very good in their specialist field - but also personally less wise and rash in the private dealings. This can apply at all income levels.

Cheap money, mortar equity release and, more recently, access to lump sums from pension funds all fuel the rise in classic and sports cars.

[GT4RS]

Digga said:

The dichotomy is that people can be professionally clever - very good in their specialist field - but also personally less wise and rash in the private dealings. This can apply at all income levels.

Cheap money, mortar equity release and, more recently, access to lump sums from pension funds all fuel the rise in classic and sports cars.

I agree with your comments regards to cheap money.

Personaly I wouldn't feel that comfortable remortgaging a property to by an investment car at present.

[Bo_apex]

mollytherocker said:

sparta6 said:

We've had these discussions in the supercar section. The explosion of the interweb and far reaching shows like Top Gear, Wheeler Dealers, Chasing Classic Cars etc, has attracted more people to the market. People who would have previously been hesitant of getting into a classic or supercar. Demand is outstripping a relatively small supply.

This is the key as I see it. More buyers are chasing a reducing supply of 'classics'.

The question is, will that continue? We are heading towards a world of self driving cars, and assuming we are allowed to drive them, I think many will want a weekend toy.

Combustion engined cars for driving will become what horses have become. A hobby.

This is correct. The more decadent a hobby becomes, the more we see price uplifts.
Nobody needs a watch in this day and age, and yet I know a chap who just spent £960K GBP on a customised wristwatch.