Is the bubble about to burst?

[Digga]

GT4RS said:

Personaly I wouldn't feel that comfortable remortgaging a property to by an investment car at present.

Me neither, but there are a number of things here. One is, consider someone middle-aged with, say, a £1m plus mortgage open plan type, which they've (using professional acumen) got at a very low rate, and the mortgage is (in relative terms) almost paid off, through overpayments. Drawing £150 to £200k is not really a big risk.

The other thing to consider and something I've often discussed with my own business bank manager, apropos of the interesting financial situations they now discover with post GFC scrutiny of personal financial affairs of directors (obviously he talks generally, rather than specifically) of firms they are considering taking on. What you or I would or would not do is one thing but, at almost every income level, there are individuals who have maxxed out nearly every avenue of credit, for overdrafts to credit cards, PCP, HP, MEW, you name it, they've hit it, and then some.

[GT4RS]

Digga said:

GT4RS said:

Personaly I wouldn't feel that comfortable remortgaging a property to by an investment car at present.

Me neither, but there are a number of things here. One is, consider someone middle-aged with, say, a £1m plus mortgage open plan type, which they've (using professional acumen) got at a very low rate, and the mortgage is (in relative terms) almost paid off, through overpayments. Drawing £150 to £200k is not really a big risk.

The other thing to consider and something I've often discussed with my own business bank manager, apropos of the interesting financial situations they now discover with post GFC scrutiny of personal financial affairs of directors (obviously he talks generally, rather than specifically) of firms they are considering taking on. What you or I would or would not do is one thing but, at almost every income level, there are individuals who have maxxed out nearly every avenue of credit, for overdrafts to credit cards, PCP, HP, MEW, you name it, they've hit it, and then some.

I guess these may be the ones which come unstuck when they need to renegotiate borrowing.

IMO now is a good time to be watching what type of cars are coming to market. I would imagine we will see a influx of Porsche GT / RS cars as the investors try and cash in. You only need to look at the numbers for sale on piston heads to confirm the appetite at these prices isn't be sustained.

[av185]

GT4RS said:

I guess these may be the ones which come unstuck when they need to renegotiate borrowing.

IMO now is a good time to be watching what type of cars are coming to market. I would imagine we will see a influx of Porsche GT / RS cars as the investors try and cash in. You only need to look at the numbers for sale on piston heads to confirm the appetite at these prices isn't be sustained.

But this is essentially nothing 'new'.

Lots of the c1250 458s were flipped post 2010 at varying premiums in the early days...F1 and Spider. Prices have remained very strong and substantially above 12C prices. And are likely to remain strong.

Ditto various other cars....and then came the 991 GT3 which is still showing a healthy premium even after nearly 3 years.

[g7jhp]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

After the 2008 crash there some bargains to be had certainly around 2010. In the case of 911's (and Ferrari's) these were being bought by a wider market (more overseas) plus with cheaper cash.

The increased demand saw prices rise which fueled the fire and was reported by the media which brought in more speculators.

This also coincided with the 911's 50th birthday which increased interest and demand for the 911 and the wider classic market. Money has remained cheap and prices have risen.

In the last year the rises have slowed as people question whether there is room for any more growth.

If we have a downturn I could see values dropping as some people look to get there money out.

Currently I think many people are still waiting to understand what Brexit will mean, whether house prices will drop etc. Only time will tell how it plays out.

I'm sure the wider demand will give a softer landing with increased global market and a diminishing pool of good older cars.

Edited by g7jhp on Tuesday 30th August 09:51

[Carl_Manchester]

g7jhp said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

After the 2008 crash there some bargains to be had certainly around 2010. In the case of 911's (and Ferrari's) these were being bought by a wider market (more overseas) plus with cheaper cash.

The increased demand saw prices rise which fueled the fire and was reported by the media which brought in more speculators.

This also coincided with the 911's 50th birthday which increased interest and demand for the 911 and the wider classic market. Money has remained cheap and prices have risen.

In the last year the rises have slowed as people question whether there is room for any more growth.

If we have a downturn I could see values dropping as some people look to get there money out.

Currently I think many people are still waiting to understand what Brexit will mean, whether house prices will drop etc. Only time will tell how it plays out.

I'm sure the wider demand will give a softer landing with increased global market and a diminishing pool of good older cars.

Edited by g7jhp on Tuesday 30th August 09:51

If any younger people reading this there is probably a worthwhile thesis paper to be written on this. I.e what happened in 2013 to pump used car prices.

Funny money flooding out of Cyprus, the Japanese stimulus package pumping cheap money. Lots to work with.

Sorry gents, please continue the bun fight.

[ooid]

g7jhp said:

After the 2008 crash there some bargains to be had certainly around 2010. In the case of 911's (and Ferrari's) these were being bought by a wider market (more overseas) plus with cheaper cash.

The increased demand saw prices rise which fueled the fire and was reported by the media which brought in more speculators.

This also coincided with the 911's 50th birthday which increased interest and demand for the 911 and the wider classic market. Money has remained cheap and prices have risen.

In the last year the rises have slowed as people question whether there is room for any more growth.

If we have a downturn I could see values dropping as some people look to get there money out.

Currently I think many people are still waiting to understand what Brexit will mean, whether house prices will drop etc. Only time will tell how it plays out.

I'm sure the wider demand will give a softer landing with increased global market and a diminishing pool of good older cars.

Edited by g7jhp on Tuesday 30th August 09:51

I would love to add one more essential thing to all these... There has been simply no alternative to what porsche offers; Mid/rear engine, sports car with modest design and great driving experience that could also be used as a daily driver.

I simply believe, there are still some crappy rusty models out there, asking for lunatic prices but looking at some early 997 and 996 out there, they are still under-rated imho, simply what around 20-25k GBP same as a Brand New Ford Focus(no offense!)

[sparta6]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

Exactly what these cars are for. Try the N202 too if you get time

[g7jhp]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

I make a call based on a number of factors.

- Price to buy
- What I then need to spend to get it into the condition i want it
- Depreciation

Historically buying old Porsche was good, depreciation was low but spend was higher (but justified by low depreciation v new car depreciation).

I spent a fairly big sum on my 2nd 3.2 Carrera when I first bought it to get it into the condition I wanted it and then a lot more over the 7 years I owned it including a respray.

Relatively my spend on maintenance was a a higher percentage v the value, but still not a massive amount in total terms.

But spending £50k today on a car (that used to be £16-20k), is hard to justify when you're likely to have to spend more money on getting it into perfect condition and maintenance plus having a possibility it could drop back in value.

If you're happy to buy high, spend on maintenance and risk of a drop that's your choice, nothing wrong with it but we'll all different.

Sure many enthusiasts stopped buying certain models when prices went crazy and focus on those which offer better value. That's why the 996.1 and 997.1 are seeing more love, despite known issues.

Edited by g7jhp on Tuesday 30th August 11:54

[pete.g]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

I think an 'enthusiast' as I understand it is willing to spend on maintenance and improvement, even when there is no chance of recovering the money; i.e. to engage in uneconomic works. You will sometimes see this with cars advertised as having restoration bills for £x, when they are for sale at £x-y.

[Digga]

pete.g said:

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

I think an 'enthusiast' as I understand it is willing to spend on maintenance and improvement, even when there is no chance of recovering the money; i.e. to engage in uneconomic works. You will sometimes see this with cars advertised as having restoration bills for £x, when they are for sale at £x-y.

There is a certain amount of pride, satisfaction and outright exercise of OCD that many of us derive from bringing an older vehicle back to a certain standard of mechanical and/or aesthetic quality. An older sports or classic may well reward with minimal (or event negative) depreciation, but it also has the capacity to generate hefty bills, seeming out of nowhere.

[hornbaek]

Digga said:

There is a certain amount of pride, satisfaction and outright exercise of OCD that many of us derive from bringing an older vehicle back to a certain standard of mechanical and/or aesthetic quality. An older sports or classic may well reward with minimal (or event negative) depreciation, but it also has the capacity to generate hefty bills, seeming out of nowhere.

... which you tend to "forget" when you compute the possible gain in value over the years. ( man-math).

[Juno]

I just want to be able to order a GT3RS or a GT2RS and keep it for at least then next 10 years so i can stop bloody looking at and changing cars, Please,Please,Please Help

[squirejo]

Thanks Mark. Wet on Saturday, too.

This evening a friend txt me a pic of some 997 C4S cab. His new car. Previous motoring highlights being an Audi A3 diesel s line and a met green Ford Orion. Has remortgaged a flat he owns taking out £250k equity. In one swoop has recouped the money his divorce cost, released funds to refurb his flat, topped up pensions and spent 45k on some Pork, from a main dealer, probably a rip off with bore scoring. The age of leverage.

[GT3RS]

You should have ponied up for my black GT3 Bazza

[MisterJD]

squirejo said:

Thanks Mark. Wet on Saturday, too.

This evening a friend txt me a pic of some 997 C4S cab. His new car. Previous motoring highlights being an Audi A3 diesel s line and a met green Ford Orion. Has remortgaged a flat he owns taking out £250k equity. In one swoop has recouped the money his divorce cost, released funds to refurb his flat, topped up pensions and spent 45k on some Pork, from a main dealer, probably a rip off with bore scoring. The age of leverage.

Soo, a recently divorced man has bought a convertible Porsche.

Not the age of leverage, but a stereotypical middle aged divorcee surely?

[Digga]

hornbaek said:

Digga said:

There is a certain amount of pride, satisfaction and outright exercise of OCD that many of us derive from bringing an older vehicle back to a certain standard of mechanical and/or aesthetic quality. An older sports or classic may well reward with minimal (or event negative) depreciation, but it also has the capacity to generate hefty bills, seeming out of nowhere.

... which you tend to "forget" when you compute the possible gain in value over the years. ( man-math).

I'm hoping, over a number of years, the costs may average out, but in my heart I know that, in all likelihood, the years where the annual maintenance doesn't shock, there will be a strong compulsion to spend on an upgrade of some sort.

[Jibaro]

Digga said:

hornbaek said:

Digga said:

There is a certain amount of pride, satisfaction and outright exercise of OCD that many of us derive from bringing an older vehicle back to a certain standard of mechanical and/or aesthetic quality. An older sports or classic may well reward with minimal (or event negative) depreciation, but it also has the capacity to generate hefty bills, seeming out of nowhere.

... which you tend to "forget" when you compute the possible gain in value over the years. ( man-math).

I'm hoping, over a number of years, the costs may average out, but in my heart I know that, in all likelihood, the years where the annual maintenance doesn't shock, there will be a strong compulsion to spend on an upgrade of some sort.

The Porsche specialists and indys must have done very well out of the rising market, a lot more "optional spend" would have been made in the last few years. There's a lot of very well looked after cars around which is one benefit of the buoyant values

There is at least one thread on here where a chap about to buy has put off a purchase do to a possibility of a lower price in the near future (996 GT3 vs Turbo thread), and it does seem the market is cooling off across the board now. Can't see a big collapse happening though while the interest rates are so low and there are still lots of true enthusiasts willing and able to buy at a slightly lower level without future anticipated rises priced into the asking price, imo.

[RSVP911]

squirejo said:

Thanks Mark. Wet on Saturday, too.

This evening a friend txt me a pic of some 997 C4S cab. His new car. Previous motoring highlights being an Audi A3 diesel s line and a met green Ford Orion. Has remortgaged a flat he owns taking out £250k equity. In one swoop has recouped the money his divorce cost, released funds to refurb his flat, topped up pensions and spent 45k on some Pork, from a main dealer, probably a rip off with bore scoring. The age of leverage.

That's brilliant ; £k250 for a divorce , where did he buy that from , I'll take one of those please : that's a bloody bargain. Mid life crisis here I come !

Re values - FWIW - prices will rise and fall over time - but , IMHO good quality , rare air cooled / GT cars are only going one way over the significant long term and that's upwards.

[Sine Metu]

I'm more worried about the whole future of cars in general than specifically 911's or sports cars. I think people in the UK are quite lucky in that it's a car friendly country. Road tax is low, insurance seems reasonable. The car culture seems strong. In a lot of other countries there is a real move against older cars. Driving laws, environmental laws, social sentiment etc. are all getting tougher all the time. Insurance companies are turing against cars over a certain age. In Paris no car over 20yrs old is allowed in the city during the week. And it's only the start.

But more than that. I wonder if the next generation and the generation after that will care about cars at all. The whole thing could fade away in the not so distant future. Are we on the verge of there being a huge majority in society who think sports cars are just totally naff? Like mullets? Who would laugh at the idea of paying for that old heap of internal combustion noisy expensive cramped nonsense that filled the dreams of our generation and former generations? Like we would laugh at the idea of smoking on a plane? Or duels at dawn? Or using coin operated telephones on the street?

[g7jhp]

Sportscars are quite naff, when driven through cities for attention.

But put someone behind the wheel of a nice car, on the right road on a nice day and even the most anti-petrolhead would find it hard not to enjoy their brief moment of pleasure.