Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
s2000db said:
If people don't think that the financial crisis in China, and the huge drops seen in the global markets won't affect car prices, then they're seriously deluded imo....
The rich are on the short side, so will end up with even more money and hoover up good stuff that sells at distress.Mermaid said:
s2000db said:
If people don't think that the financial crisis in China, and the huge drops seen in the global markets won't affect car prices, then they're seriously deluded imo....
The rich are on the short side, so will end up with even more money and hoover up good stuff that sells at distress.
roygarth said:
footsoldier said:
Blimey! The bubble 'aint bursting yet! Incredible prices.I think there is a hue amount of confidence/greed built into the current market. If the FTSE does not recover, in the absence of further QE, Chinese equity collapse and throw in an interest rate rise here and in the US and I think we could be in for some very interesting times...
I certainly wouldn't be buying now (an older Porsche that is).
I certainly wouldn't be buying now (an older Porsche that is).
I think it will burst slightly, or at least stop inflating. It won't help that buyers who've bought purely as investors (and/or to store/collect) will be making the rare cars even more scarce to those who fancy something to use, just because. How difficult is going to be to find a 3.6 turbo 964, or 993 GT2 etc that's not in storage or being offered speculatively?
barchetta_boy said:
I think there is a hue amount of confidence/greed built into the current market. If the FTSE does not recover, in the absence of further QE, Chinese equity collapse and throw in an interest rate rise here and in the US and I think we could be in for some very interesting times...
I certainly wouldn't be buying now (an older Porsche that is).
Do not under estimate central bankers.I certainly wouldn't be buying now (an older Porsche that is).
Mermaid said:
barchetta_boy said:
I think there is a hue amount of confidence/greed built into the current market. If the FTSE does not recover, in the absence of further QE, Chinese equity collapse and throw in an interest rate rise here and in the US and I think we could be in for some very interesting times...
I certainly wouldn't be buying now (an older Porsche that is).
Do not under estimate central bankers.I certainly wouldn't be buying now (an older Porsche that is).
The really interesting question i think is whether when we do get a significant stutter (which may be now or in the next year) , will car values remain flat, fall slightly, or fall back to 2011/12 values.
I think economical statistical analysis would say a reasonably significant fall back in values is lightly but I think it is very difficult to predict....... maybe air cooled porsche are now valued at what they are worth in the new computerised car world
GT4RS said:
Anyone fancy putting a date on when they think the car bubble is going to burst???
There appears to be a lot more quality cars going through the auction route of late.
To me that says people are trying to get out and bank any form of profit when they can.
Even I am convinced that it can't be long now... I'm planning to sell off 1-2 cars before the end of September.There appears to be a lot more quality cars going through the auction route of late.
To me that says people are trying to get out and bank any form of profit when they can.
I have lived through stock market and classic car bubbles of 80/90s and today has a worryingly similar feel to the stock market crash of that period. Biggest one day drop ever on Wall St - although some recovery since.
Very different world to back then but surely we should expect sharp adjustment in cars any time soon?
Very different world to back then but surely we should expect sharp adjustment in cars any time soon?
Nah. People are incorrigible optimists. The bubble won't burst until it is far too late to get out without losing your trousers. I would estimate 2017 or so for the next proper asset crash, followed by another 'once in a hundred years' collapse in about 2020.
But I am a horrendous pessimist
But I am a horrendous pessimist
When is the next big auction? If it doesn't show increasing prices then the burst has already happened. Sorry to say it like that but this is always the nature of these things which is why it amazes me that people are still looking to get on this bandwagon, they will be paying for cars well over the odds even when others have already desperately tried to unload theres at a lower price than they were hoping for.
Why should anyone on here give a damn? Are we not mostly enthusiasts?
You buy a car and enjoy it and spend zillions on it to make it better or just keep it up together. Life's just so short, only fools or is that just really shallow people buy cars for investment potential only.
My aircooled 911 has been sat in the rain for the last few days. Do I give a damn. Nope, it's a car and I bought it to enjoy driving it.
Who gives a damn about China? If it's worth nothing tomorrow then so be it. I'll still enjoy driving her to the day I might may have to sell her. Loss or no loss.
You buy a car and enjoy it and spend zillions on it to make it better or just keep it up together. Life's just so short, only fools or is that just really shallow people buy cars for investment potential only.
My aircooled 911 has been sat in the rain for the last few days. Do I give a damn. Nope, it's a car and I bought it to enjoy driving it.
Who gives a damn about China? If it's worth nothing tomorrow then so be it. I'll still enjoy driving her to the day I might may have to sell her. Loss or no loss.
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