Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
mdianuk said:
You only have to see the increase in collectors cars and glass box housed cars to understand that these high value motors are now investments only, not items to enjoy (apart from looking at them). They are being traded as commodities which sadly means less on the road. I'm all for buying rare/limited objects, but would never buy at over list, but sadly with how GT Porsches now are, you can rarely get in at the beginning.
Out of interest, for those of you that actively invest (successfully), given the current economic climate, where would you be putting your money right now if it wasn't in cars? And following on from that, where would you be putting your money during a significant downturn similar to 2008? Serious answers please, looking for guidance I can then research off.
There is nowhere better than rare commodities to put ya cash..there is no rarer commodity than a limited edition Porsche imo..hence I stay with mine,i don't think its a rare car problem I just think its its the knock on effect of silly cheap money from incredibly thick/pressurised central bankers flooding the world with cash.. keeping the Ponzi scheme going!Suits everyone!Out of interest, for those of you that actively invest (successfully), given the current economic climate, where would you be putting your money right now if it wasn't in cars? And following on from that, where would you be putting your money during a significant downturn similar to 2008? Serious answers please, looking for guidance I can then research off.
Edited by mdianuk on Tuesday 25th August 10:45
kayc said:
I just think its its the knock on effect of silly cheap money from incredibly thick/pressurised central bankers flooding the world with cash.. keeping the Ponzi scheme going!Suits everyone!
Yep. And the more of 'crisis' we see around the markets/economies, the more inflated cars/prime real estate etc will be. The only the only way prices of rare/classic cars will go down, is if the world economy improves and the politicians stop manipulating the system to these extremes.
That ain't happening anytime soon.
kayc said:
here is nowhere better than rare commodities to put ya cash..there is no rarer commodity than a limited edition Porsche imo..hence I stay with mine,i don't think its a rare car problem I just think its its the knock on effect of silly cheap money from incredibly thick/pressurised central bankers flooding the world with cash.. keeping the Ponzi scheme going!Suits everyone!
I can't fit classic Porsche's in the safe, I need something else to invest in 
mdianuk said:
kayc said:
here is nowhere better than rare commodities to put ya cash..there is no rarer commodity than a limited edition Porsche imo..hence I stay with mine,i don't think its a rare car problem I just think its its the knock on effect of silly cheap money from incredibly thick/pressurised central bankers flooding the world with cash.. keeping the Ponzi scheme going!Suits everyone!
I can't fit classic Porsche's in the safe, I need something else to invest in One of the factors that doesn't get much of a mention is the fantastic condition of 'some' of the cars. The much higher values now make it financially viable to invest in quality restoration. Unloved cars like 964's and SC's were unloved because they were raggedy. When they're refreshed back to something like their original condition they're a whole different car. So that's part of the virtuous circle of increasing prices.
Ultimately however, we need prices to crash so we can all get back to buying and ogling and dreaming and selling, restoring, and above all, driving.
Ultimately however, we need prices to crash so we can all get back to buying and ogling and dreaming and selling, restoring, and above all, driving.
Sine Metu said:
One of the factors that doesn't get much of a mention is the fantastic condition of 'some' of the cars. The much higher values now make it financially viable to invest in quality restoration. Unloved cars like 964's and SC's were unloved because they were raggedy. When they're refreshed back to something like their original condition they're a whole different car. So that's part of the virtuous circle of increasing prices.
Ultimately however, we need prices to crash so we can all get back to buying and ogling and dreaming and selling, restoring, and above all, driving.
The restoration concept is a nice concept, but in reality most cars just get patched up and sold on for the higher price as it costs to restore cars properly. Ultimately however, we need prices to crash so we can all get back to buying and ogling and dreaming and selling, restoring, and above all, driving.
At least the higher prices helps enthusiasts justify their man maths!
g7jhp said:
Sine Metu said:
One of the factors that doesn't get much of a mention is the fantastic condition of 'some' of the cars. The much higher values now make it financially viable to invest in quality restoration. Unloved cars like 964's and SC's were unloved because they were raggedy. When they're refreshed back to something like their original condition they're a whole different car. So that's part of the virtuous circle of increasing prices.
Ultimately however, we need prices to crash so we can all get back to buying and ogling and dreaming and selling, restoring, and above all, driving.
The restoration concept is a nice concept, but in reality most cars just get patched up and sold on for the higher price as it costs to restore cars properly. Ultimately however, we need prices to crash so we can all get back to buying and ogling and dreaming and selling, restoring, and above all, driving.
At least the higher prices helps enthusiasts justify their man maths!
I would imagine that a lot of the big money 993s have seen plenty of big work in the last few years. It has been perfectly rational to drop £5-10k on a major refresh, especially as it gives you a lovely car to drive while you watch the price go up. I would feel a right fool driving around in £50k worth of car that had f
ked suspension!
ked suspension! ORD said:
I would imagine that a lot of the big money 993s have seen plenty of big work in the last few years. It has been perfectly rational to drop £5-10k on a major refresh, especially as it gives you a lovely car to drive while you watch the price go up. I would feel a right fool driving around in £50k worth of car that had fked suspension!
I think that most 993 owners (including me) have invested quite a bit of cash in their cars!ked suspension! Remember that they are now 18-22 year old cars!!!!
mollytherocker said:
ORD said:
I would imagine that a lot of the big money 993s have seen plenty of big work in the last few years. It has been perfectly rational to drop £5-10k on a major refresh, especially as it gives you a lovely car to drive while you watch the price go up. I would feel a right fool driving around in £50k worth of car that had fked suspension!
I think that most 993 owners (including me) have invested quite a bit of cash in their cars!ked suspension! Remember that they are now 18-22 year old cars!!!!
You have a old classic Porsche, they need money spent on them each year.
These cars have parts on them over twenty years old.
Edited by SEE YA on Wednesday 26th August 21:24
SEE YA said:
Same with my car over the years, you drive you pay.
You have a old classic Porsche, they need money spent on them each year.
These cars have parts on them over twenty years old.
In truth, this is part of the fun, but dont tell anybody I said that!You have a old classic Porsche, they need money spent on them each year.
These cars have parts on them over twenty years old.
Edited by SEE YA on Wednesday 26th August 21:24
g7jhp said:
The restoration concept is a nice concept, but in reality most cars just get patched up and sold on for the higher price as it costs to restore cars properly.
At least the higher prices helps enthusiasts justify their man maths!
You're probably right but I'm thinking back to some of the points raised by earlier posters. Have enthusiasts suddenly out of nowhere decided that air cooled cars are worth far more or is the market inflated by speculators. I'm in a category of Porsche fan who once upon a time wouldn't have gone near an air cooled 911. I really had a pretty low view of them mainly because most of the ones I came across in real life looked old, tired, raggedy and anything but a brilliant driving machine. So choosing a 996 was a very easy decision for me when prices of 996's and 993's were the pretty similar. Anything older than a 993 was a tractor. So while there may indeed be horrors lurking underneath, old air coolers that I've seen over the last couple of years at Porsche club gatherings have genuinely increased in appeal because some of them are looking awesome, as thought they've come straight off the production line, or are beautifully modified hot rod Singer style works of art. Combine that with the titanic power battles of the German uber saloons and the whole paradigm of performance has shifted anyway to the point of almost redundancy. Power now exceeds purpose and usability. So I probably fall into a newer emerging category who like authenticity and character but still need real drivability and quality of finish. I'm not so moved by biggest willie turbos any more. I like the more holistic complete experience so I'm happier than ever in my 996 C2 but I'm seeing a kinship in the earlier cars. So I believe the price bubble is being driven by enthusiasts to an extent and not completely by speculators. In other words, yes, perhaps there is a surge in appreciation of older cars because they have been loved, cared for and enhanced to such an extent over the last half decade. A bog standard tired old 911 would do nothing for me. It stirs nothing. All I see, other than an occasional novelty drive is a crap everyday driving tool. But a beautifully presented fully sorted car is an entirely different matter. It resonates (perhaps falsely) beauty and capability. The two things that matter to me. I would pay twice the money for a great air cooled car, on fact, more than twice than I would have ever done for the run of the mills things I saw often enough. By the way, I think the 996 suffers a bit at the moment from the fact that so many look a bit tired and unloved. When owners start investing in restoring they might surprise the market. We all love aesthetic beauty but a lot of us want the driving experience to be not just a special nostalgic experience, but a real modern world level of power, acceleration and handling. At least the higher prices helps enthusiasts justify their man maths!
Sine Metu said:
You're probably right but I'm thinking back to some of the points raised by earlier posters. Have enthusiasts suddenly out of nowhere decided that air cooled cars are worth far more or is the market inflated by speculators. I'm in a category of Porsche fan who once upon a time wouldn't have gone near an air cooled 911. I really had a pretty low view of them mainly because most of the ones I came across in real life looked old, tired, raggedy and anything but a brilliant driving machine. So choosing a 996 was a very easy decision for me when prices of 996's and 993's were the pretty similar. Anything older than a 993 was a tractor. So while there may indeed be horrors lurking underneath, old air coolers that I've seen over the last couple of years at Porsche club gatherings have genuinely increased in appeal because some of them are looking awesome, as thought they've come straight off the production line, or are beautifully modified hot rod Singer style works of art. Combine that with the titanic power battles of the German uber saloons and the whole paradigm of performance has shifted anyway to the point of almost redundancy. Power now exceeds purpose and usability. So I probably fall into a newer emerging category who like authenticity and character but still need real drivability and quality of finish. I'm not so moved by biggest willie turbos any more. I like the more holistic complete experience so I'm happier than ever in my 996 C2 but I'm seeing a kinship in the earlier cars. So I believe the price bubble is being driven by enthusiasts to an extent and not completely by speculators. In other words, yes, perhaps there is a surge in appreciation of older cars because they have been loved, cared for and enhanced to such an extent over the last half decade. A bog standard tired old 911 would do nothing for me. It stirs nothing. All I see, other than an occasional novelty drive is a crap everyday driving tool. But a beautifully presented fully sorted car is an entirely different matter. It resonates (perhaps falsely) beauty and capability. The two things that matter to me. I would pay twice the money for a great air cooled car, on fact, more than twice than I would have ever done for the run of the mills things I saw often enough. By the way, I think the 996 suffers a bit at the moment from the fact that so many look a bit tired and unloved. When owners start investing in restoring they might surprise the market. We all love aesthetic beauty but a lot of us want the driving experience to be not just a special nostalgic experience, but a real modern world level of power, acceleration and handling.
Perhaps the most well thought out and delivered post in this thread. Combine its sentiment with the minimal returns on bank deposits and other 'investments', and the fact that a well sorted 964 is available for the cost of a well specced new GTi (well just about) and you can see why demand is high. Sine Metu said:
the titanic power battles of the German uber saloons and the whole paradigm of performance has shifted anyway to the point of almost redundancy. Power now exceeds purpose and usability. So I probably fall into a newer emerging category who like authenticity and character but still need real drivability and quality of finish. I'm not so moved by biggest willie turbos any more.
I can see this - the 'analogue' argument, for sure.I personally fell for the 996tt because of the power unit (to my ears, on start-up, the Mezger engine, although different, rattles and woofs to life almost exactly as that of the engine on Chris Harris' 4.0 GT3RS) and the 996 itself because it does look and feel (mine is 15 years old) like a modern classic, rather than an oldish example of a modern car. It has a bit of that classic look and feel to it.
Values are interesting and I do share your view that, strong or rising values might encourage people to spend (and they do take some cash to look after!) what is necessary to maintain or even improve on the standards of examples still in circulation.
Sine Metu said:
g7jhp said:
The restoration concept is a nice concept, but in reality most cars just get patched up and sold on for the higher price as it costs to restore cars properly.
At least the higher prices helps enthusiasts justify their man maths!
You're probably right but I'm thinking back to some of the points raised by earlier posters. Have enthusiasts suddenly out of nowhere decided that air cooled cars are worth far more or is the market inflated by speculators. I'm in a category of Porsche fan who once upon a time wouldn't have gone near an air cooled 911. I really had a pretty low view of them mainly because most of the ones I came across in real life looked old, tired, raggedy and anything but a brilliant driving machine. So choosing a 996 was a very easy decision for me when prices of 996's and 993's were the pretty similar. Anything older than a 993 was a tractor. So while there may indeed be horrors lurking underneath, old air coolers that I've seen over the last couple of years at Porsche club gatherings have genuinely increased in appeal because some of them are looking awesome, as thought they've come straight off the production line, or are beautifully modified hot rod Singer style works of art. Combine that with the titanic power battles of the German uber saloons and the whole paradigm of performance has shifted anyway to the point of almost redundancy. Power now exceeds purpose and usability. So I probably fall into a newer emerging category who like authenticity and character but still need real drivability and quality of finish. I'm not so moved by biggest willie turbos any more. I like the more holistic complete experience so I'm happier than ever in my 996 C2 but I'm seeing a kinship in the earlier cars. So I believe the price bubble is being driven by enthusiasts to an extent and not completely by speculators. In other words, yes, perhaps there is a surge in appreciation of older cars because they have been loved, cared for and enhanced to such an extent over the last half decade. A bog standard tired old 911 would do nothing for me. It stirs nothing. All I see, other than an occasional novelty drive is a crap everyday driving tool. But a beautifully presented fully sorted car is an entirely different matter. It resonates (perhaps falsely) beauty and capability. The two things that matter to me. I would pay twice the money for a great air cooled car, on fact, more than twice than I would have ever done for the run of the mills things I saw often enough. By the way, I think the 996 suffers a bit at the moment from the fact that so many look a bit tired and unloved. When owners start investing in restoring they might surprise the market. We all love aesthetic beauty but a lot of us want the driving experience to be not just a special nostalgic experience, but a real modern world level of power, acceleration and handling. At least the higher prices helps enthusiasts justify their man maths!
I came to Porsche the other way via the 3.2 Carrera, 994 C4, 3.2 Carrera and now a 996 turbo. Porsche 911's are all about the drive whether it's a 991, 997, 996, IB or early car. The watercooled car are a far more modern drive. Of the aircooled cars I've driven the 993 still feels modern compared to a 3.2 or SC. The 964 sits on the fence with both old and new characteristics. So agree the newer cars are an easier drive, certainly more usable on a daily basis (not necessarily a better drive or more fun).
I used all my aircooled cars as daily drivers and they required constant spend to keep them sorted. My last 3.2 had full new suspension, clutch, discs, pads and a respray in it's time and felt young for it's 120k miles. The point being is you've always had to spend money to keep a car in top nick, this isn't something that has changed in the last 4 years.
What has changed is the value. More people are looking at the older cars because they've gone up in value and are seen as a good place to put your money of you like cars (or now even if you want to try to make some speculative cash).
Certainly more enthusiasts are now looking at SC's, 3.2's and 964's and realising they'd pay more than they perhaps would have 4 years ago, but they're essentially the same car at a higher price and it will still cost the same to get them into tip tip shape. A tired SC/3.2 is now just a more expensive tired SC/3.2, although it currently has more justification for spend.
What will be interesting is how many people will still be interested, if/when the prices drop and that justification for spend reduces.
We're already seeing real enthusiasts not buying as they don't think prices are realistic and aren't prepared to lose their hard earned money if we see a drop. Others are selling to realise a profit on cars they've enjoyed for years but feel it's worth taking the upside. Some it doesn't matter as they're not selling.
My guess is that 'good condition, manual, 2wd, coupes' won't take such a fall as there will still be a big enthusiast market who will be ready to pick them up. Other variants (targa's, cab's, tip's will take a larger hit as they're not as sort after.
Good, well cared for examples of all models will always command a premium over those in average or poor condition.
Excellent points above, just glad I bought my old 911 back in 07.
I cannot put a price, on my LeMans trips with my son in my old car.
If I sold it, what could take its place its my dream car still today?
Value does not matter to me on the car. Fine in the current market, its worth a lot these days.
I cannot put a price, on my LeMans trips with my son in my old car.
If I sold it, what could take its place its my dream car still today?
Value does not matter to me on the car. Fine in the current market, its worth a lot these days.
Edited by SEE YA on Thursday 27th August 13:56
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