Is the bubble about to burst?

[uktrailmonster]

g7jhp said:

Today buying an aircooled car would be a risk, there's a high probability of prices dropping.

Yeah that's how I see it too. I've always bought classic 911s when I considered them to be under-valued by the market (seriously undervalued in most cases) and I've been "lucky" every single time in that I've never lost a penny and actually made a very decent profit on some of my classic Porsches. Not that I've ever really bought them as serious investments, more just for fun at a relatively low overall cost. However I've also been unlucky enough not to foresee the silly price rises over the last few years after I'd sold off my mint original 2.4S! I still more than doubled my money on it, but it could have been easily 10x that today.

So anyway today we are sitting very much at the opposite end of the spectrum. While back in 2002 I was contemplating spending the £25K I'd just got for my mint 964RS on a really nice 40K mile original 2.4S my thinking was that prices only really had one direction to go in, however slowly and it wasn't down. You could call it pure luck that prices did actually go up, but really it was pretty obvious that they would, the only surprise being the slope of the incline in recent years. But today I look at a £200K 2.4S and think which way is the pricing going to go in the next few years? It's really not so obvious and you'd have to say with prices rising out of control in recent times that in all probability they will collapse back down to a more sustainable slope. As I see it you could quite easily lose £100K+ if the market turns and for me personally that is not an acceptable risk for a relatively cooking classic 911. They're good, but not that good!

That said, I wouldn't think twice about spending up to £30K on a decent air-cooled C3.2 or SC. Sure they might get hit by a market collapse too, but you might lose £10-15K at worst and if you hang in for the long haul, you'll probably get that back anyway eventually.

Edited by uktrailmonster on Tuesday 1st September 15:56

[supersport]

uktrailmonster said:

That said, I wouldn't think twice about spending up to £30K on a decent air-cooled C3.2 or SC. Sure they might get hit by a market collapse too, but you might lose £10-15K at worst and if you hang in for the long haul, you'll probably get that back anyway eventually.

This I s what I am talking about. I think there is very little chance of loosing £15k. The £200k market is a different beast for different folk.

My. reason for comparing new with classic is to make the point that many many people buy a new car knowing that they WILL lose most of the value. With the classic this is not necessarily the case. Why would you spend loads on a euro st box knowing that it will be worthless, and crap, when you could buy a proper care, that MAY NOT lose anything, or not much anyway.

I only consider myself lucky that I was in the position to buy my car in the first place, the position in time that this happened doesn't matter. If prices were at today's price point I would have had to have saved harder.

Edited by supersport on Tuesday 1st September 16:29

[hondansx]

Could anyone have predicted the rise of the 964 RS? Not especially that rare, not particularly different to the standard car and - in period - not amazing reviews either.

All it took was the likes of Richard Meadon (who had one) to talk it up, and hey presto, it sky rocketed. What a pleasant co-incidence for Mr Meadon!

As a very analogue, air cooled 911, fair enough that it has gone up in price. But £300k? A little laughable when you flick through a copy of Octane and see tons of them for sale, all uniquely special of course!

[roygarth]

supersport said:

uktrailmonster said:

That said, I wouldn't think twice about spending up to £30K on a decent air-cooled C3.2 or SC. Sure they might get hit by a market collapse too, but you might lose £10-15K at worst and if you hang in for the long haul, you'll probably get that back anyway eventually.

This I s what I am talking about. I think there is very little chance of loosing £15k. The £200k market is a different beast for different folk.

My. reason for comparing new with classic is to make the point that many many people buy a new car knowing that they WILL lose most of the value. With the classic this is not necessarily the case. Why would you spend loads on a euro st box knowing that it will be worthless, and crap, when you could buy a proper care, that MAY NOT lose anything, or not much anyway.

I only consider myself lucky that I was in the position to buy my car in the first place, the position in time that this happened doesn't matter. If prices were at today's price point I would have had to have saved harder.

Edited by supersport on Tuesday 1st September 16:29

I have many friends who have bought a well depreciated everyday car (eg £6k Golf) and then bought a classic (Porsche usually!) for weekends/sunny days etc. In the past they would have bought a £30k/£50k everyday car and lost 65% over 3 years and sold it. The point is that driving in the UK is for many such a bore these days, you may as well do it this way....sit tin the traffic during the week in a snotter and have fun at the weekends in something special. Overall cost is pretty similar...

[YoungMD]

I guess this tread is all about values, but to me it's very very clear, if you want a very good air cooled car to keep and drive, buy one whenever the condition is the most important thing.

If you want one for an investment or really don't want to lose any money on it then buying one now would be like expecting to see a massive decline in oil prices, of course recent value trends impact future values...

[fredt]

g7jhp said:

Today buying an aircooled car would be a risk, there's a high probability of prices dropping.


Classics are less appealing it you buy high, have to pay higher running costs and face a potential drop in value. If you want one now you would be well advised to sit tight and see what happens in the next 12-18 months.

Edited by g7jhp on Tuesday 1st September 11:12

Big risk with high probability of prices falling? Strong (brave) view, what do you Base this on?

[GT4RS]

fredt said:

g7jhp said:

Today buying an aircooled car would be a risk, there's a high probability of prices dropping.


Classics are less appealing it you buy high, have to pay higher running costs and face a potential drop in value. If you want one now you would be well advised to sit tight and see what happens in the next 12-18 months.

Edited by g7jhp on Tuesday 1st September 11:12

Big risk with high probability of prices falling? Strong (brave) view, what do you Base this on?

I would say his view is honest and looks to be inline to how the market is starting to react. A lot of people feel the market has already reacted the top.

The wise have already sold.

[supersport]

GT4RS said:

fredt said:

g7jhp said:

Today buying an aircooled car would be a risk, there's a high probability of prices dropping.


Classics are less appealing it you buy high, have to pay higher running costs and face a potential drop in value. If you want one now you would be well advised to sit tight and see what happens in the next 12-18 months.

Edited by g7jhp on Tuesday 1st September 11:12

Big risk with high probability of prices falling? Strong (brave) view, what do you Base this on?

I would say his view is honest and looks to be inline to how the market is starting to react. A lot of people feel the market has already reacted the top.

The wise have already sold.

Cock, must not be wise, oh well there is always next time.

Maybe it's about time this thread was moved to the finance section, it clearly has fk all to with owning and driving Porsches.

[SEE YA]

supersport said:

GT4RS said:

fredt said:

g7jhp said:

Today buying an aircooled car would be a risk, there's a high probability of prices dropping.


Classics are less appealing it you buy high, have to pay higher running costs and face a potential drop in value. If you want one now you would be well advised to sit tight and see what happens in the next 12-18 months.

Edited by g7jhp on Tuesday 1st September 11:12

Big risk with high probability of prices falling? Strong (brave) view, what do you Base this on?

I would say his view is honest and looks to be inline to how the market is starting to react. A lot of people feel the market has already reacted the top.

The wise have already sold.

Cock, must not be wise, oh well there is always next time.

Maybe it's about time this thread was moved to the finance section, it clearly has fk all to with owning and driving Porsches.

[fredt]

GT4RS said:

I would say his view is honest and looks to be inline to how the market is starting to react. A lot of people feel the market has already reacted the top.

The wise have already sold.

Who are these wise ones of whom you speak?

I sold as well but don't share this view. At all.

What is this view based on? I have my own theory why it will keep going, and would be interested to hear views on why it won't.

"I have a feeling" Don't qualify.

[fredt]

supersport said:

Cock, must not be wise, oh well there is always next time.

Maybe it's about time this thread was moved to the finance section, it clearly has fk all to with owning and driving Porsches.

Meh. Boring narrow minded view. I'm not saying I'm more of a petrolhead then anyone else or any of that bullst, but I have had some sort of motorised vehicle since I was 6, I have raced, worked professionally and played with all sorts of vehicles from mopeds to lorries. I have couple of bikes I just enjoy owning, and yes they are a bit of an investment as well (and I clearly don't mind making money on my Porsche either, should it go up in value)

If someone wants to own something only as an investment, fine by me, each to their own. Much boring willy waving and suggesting how people should use their cars or how some people think what they do is better.

I enjoy reading threads about tuning Porsches, racing them, going on road trips and yes, values and investment. If you don't like it maybe ps off and don't read threads about values?

[uktrailmonster]

fredt said:

Big risk with high probability of prices falling? Strong (brave) view, what do you Base this on?

For me it's obvious in that prices of classic cars have risen so very sharply in recent years - massively above inflation rates. Now I'm not a financial expert at all (hate the subject massively) but whenever I see massive price rises out of proportion with the rest of the world I can only think that it's probably unsustainable. But maybe you know something I don't and prices will continue to rise for many years to come. But I'm not risking putting a load of silly money today into something dubious like for example a 964RS.

I would suggest that the brave view is that prices will continue on the upward spiral. A very brave view indeed if you are a buyer of certain models.

[uktrailmonster]

supersport said:

Why would you spend loads on a euro st box knowing that it will be worthless, and crap, when you could buy a proper care, that MAY NOT lose anything, or not much anyway.

I can only speak for myself here, but I will buy a new "euro st box" as you put it, knowing full well that it's going to lose nearly half its value in 3 years time (not exactly worthless) simply because I need something reliable and practical enough to move my family and stuff around on a day to day basis. I buy "proper" cars too, but just for the hell of it so it helps if they don't lose too much money along the way. They are just totally different purchases and hardly comparable on any level. Of course I could swap the "euro st box" for say a 964 Carrera and explain to my wife and kids that it won't lose any money so it will be much better for us than a big modern comfortable estate - sorry I meant "euro st box".

[uktrailmonster]

hondansx said:

Could anyone have predicted the rise of the 964 RS? Not especially that rare, not particularly different to the standard car and - in period - not amazing reviews either.

They were raving about them at Autofarm in the late 90s when I bought mine. Mainly because they were such a bargain back then and a lot of fun to hoon around in. I can also tell you from first hand experience that they drive a LOT differently to a stock Carrera. The RS is actually a brutally focused track car and probably the only place it should really be driven. I found mine pretty hard work on the road, which was why reviews at the time were so mixed. Basically it could only handle very smooth roads in standard form.

[bryn_p]

uktrailmonster said:

hondansx said:

Could anyone have predicted the rise of the 964 RS? Not especially that rare, not particularly different to the standard car and - in period - not amazing reviews either.

They were raving about them at Autofarm in the late 90s when I bought mine. Mainly because they were such a bargain back then and a lot of fun to hoon around in. I can also tell you from first hand experience that they drive a LOT differently to a stock Carrera. The RS is actually a brutally focused track car and probably the only place it should really be driven. I found mine pretty hard work on the road, which was why reviews at the time were so mixed. Basically it could only handle very smooth roads in standard form.

As above, they are brilliant and totally different to a C2. And I would say rare too, less than 2000 made if I remember correctly? I don't believe Richard Meaden has had any effect on prices, they're a rare air cooled 911 that was undervalued although I do think prices now are not realistic even though they can be had for £150k not £300k. For me the value lies around the £100k mark. I sold mine in 2008 for £42k which I thought was great back then I'd have another in a heartbeat if the price was right though.

Regarding the market I personally think it's reached the top in this phase of increases, but I don't see a 'correction', the best examples of the most desirable cars will still be worth more or less what they are now. It's the stuff that was never worth current asking prices like the tiptronics and cabriolets that will take a hit (and I own a tiptronic cabriolet )

Cheers,
Bryn.

[GT4RS]

supersport said:

GT4RS said:

fredt said:

g7jhp said:

Today buying an aircooled car would be a risk, there's a high probability of prices dropping.


Classics are less appealing it you buy high, have to pay higher running costs and face a potential drop in value. If you want one now you would be well advised to sit tight and see what happens in the next 12-18 months.

Edited by g7jhp on Tuesday 1st September 11:12

Big risk with high probability of prices falling? Strong (brave) view, what do you Base this on?

I would say his view is honest and looks to be inline to how the market is starting to react. A lot of people feel the market has already reacted the top.

The wise have already sold.

Cock, must not be wise, oh well there is always next time.

Maybe it's about time this thread was moved to the finance section, it clearly has fk all to with owning and driving Porsches.

Yet another sad member who feels the need to swear at someone on a forum!

Why not contribute to a thread you enjoy reading / being part rather than being rude to others.

[g7jhp]

supersport said:

Cock, must not be wise, oh well there is always next time.

Maybe it's about time this thread was moved to the finance section, it clearly has fk all to with owning and driving Porsches.

Of course it has relevance to owning Porsches. Currently many enthusiasts can't afford the Porsche's they aspire to own due to the massive price rises. This thread is discussing if it's a bubble or not and helps people make a decision on whether now is the right or the wrong time to buy or sell their Porsche.

If you don't like it, you're not being forced to read or join in the discussion.

[g7jhp]

fredt said:

Big risk with high probability of prices falling? Strong (brave) view, what do you Base this on?

Not really, it would be brave to buy now.

These trends to go in cycles. The entire classic car market has shot up not just aircooled Porsche. Aircooled Porsche prices have had a massive % increase and therefore they're certainly riskier than they were 18 months ago before the rises.

There are plenty of signs it's toppy and well known car collectors like Mr Evans are selling some of their cars to realize a profit at current highs (he obviously still has his crown jewels).

Very good cars are still selling, but average/poor cars and sticking. A growing number of long term Porsche enthusiasts aren't prepared to buy at these prices.

[fredt]

g7jhp said:

Not really, it would be brave to buy now.

These trends to go in cycles. The entire classic car market has shot up not just aircooled Porsche. Aircooled Porsche prices have had a massive % increase and therefore they're certainly riskier than they were 18 months ago before the rises.

There are plenty of signs it's toppy and well known car collectors like Mr Evans are selling some of their cars to realize a profit at current highs (he obviously still has his crown jewels).

Very good cars are still selling, but average/poor cars and sticking. A growing number of long term Porsche enthusiasts aren't prepared to buy at these prices.

Evans didn't start selling cars now, he also sold 10m worth of cars between 2012 and april 2014.And he sold a 250 GT for 18m at one point...

Pretty poor barometer for indicating the top.

I just thing the whole cyclical thing is out the window at the minute, the frenzied printing of cash and ever more cheap credit available to anyone has turned everything on it's head. This I fear will become even more prevalent as debt worldwide is still expanding, and more QE or the equivalence of is the only thing our dear leaders are prepared to do, as their own personal interest is their only interest.

That my view anyway

Edited by fredt on Wednesday 2nd September 12:30

[uktrailmonster]

fredt said:

I just thing the whole cyclical thing is out the window at the minute, the frenzied printing of cash and ever more cheap credit available to anyone has turned everything on it's head.

I'm not sure about this cheap credit thing. My wife runs an accountancy firm and tells me every day how businesses are now struggling to raise finance. The banks (in the UK at least) are much more cautious now. Even getting a mortgage is a bit of a challenge now.
I wouldn't want to even attempt to predict where the classic car market is heading, but if I had to guess I would say down. But nobody really knows, not me, not you, not the dealers, not the governments, nobody.