Is the bubble about to burst?

[Koln-RS]

I'm still waiting for the 'art bubble' to burst - got just the place for a couple of Cezannes and a nice Banksy.

Then, when the London property market collapses, I'll pick up a cosy little bargain in Belgravia.

By which time, those Patek Philippe watches should be nice and cheap on ebay.

And, as for those little aircooled Porsches, they're going to be 'cheap as chips'.

[david hockney]

I've already set aside 80 grand for a Jean Michel Basquiat canvas and a 993 turbo.......it will happen

[NJH]

Yeah but does anyone foresee a drop to below where the prices were 2 years ago? I don't personally for many of the reasons stated in this thread over the past 20+ pages, a bubble that will burst for sure but it will still leave many cars at high prices not just insane ones (the prices they got to when pumped by enthusiasts rather than speculators).

[ORD]

As soon as people get the sense that prices aren't going up anymore and may even fall, the speculators will leave the market (aside from the genuinely special cars that will always appreciate over a long enough time scale).

So the question really is whether we think the current prices would be maintained by enthusiasts. I think that wipes out things like tiptronic cabriolets!

[g7jhp]

NJH said:

Yeah but does anyone foresee a drop to below where the prices were 2 years ago? I don't personally for many of the reasons stated in this thread over the past 20+ pages, a bubble that will burst for sure but it will still leave many cars at high prices not just insane ones (the prices they got to when pumped by enthusiasts rather than speculators).

No good cars won't drop back that far as real enthusiastic across all marques and models will have noted the cars they'd like to buy at a more reasonable price.

The question is what do people see as a reasonable price?

[Digga]

supersport said:

david hockney said:

E Types were cheap as chips 10 yrs ago. Now a decent series 1 FHC is 70 grand +
and they made over 70,000 E Types-hardly rare....

Watched an old wheeler dealers last night from 2010 I think, they bought a decent V12 E type for £13K did it up and sold for £18k, very nice.

When Digga snr bought his first XJS, the salesman at the dealer (Reeves & Steadiford, Solihull) told him about the last E type they had; it was up for £2.5k but was sticking and he eventually sold it for £2k. Okay, inflation etc. etc. and it was the less desirable and Americanised final iteration, but still a lovely car.

Oh, yes, and I too am waiting for art prices to crash. Always loved Caravaggio's Taking of Christ.

Edited by Digga on Thursday 3rd September 08:31

[Baz99]

Didn't all this happen in the late 80's ?

[Digga]

Baz99 said:

Didn't all this happen in the late 80's ?

You laughing at my red braces pal?

[roygarth]

g7jhp said:

roygarth said:

g7jhp said:

and a house is more of a necessity as we live in them and there's a shortage!

My 360CS is a necessity and they only made a thousand of them!

But there are always alternatives with cars, as you demonstrate from going from a P man to an F man!

Still got a couple of P's . And didn't somebody say that 'you can sleep in your car but you can't drive your house through the Stelvio Pass'?

[roygarth]

Baz99 said:

Didn't all this happen in the late 80's ?

OK, I'm not going to say 'things are different this time', but back then a much larger percent of buyers were borrowing money to buy and base rates were sky high at 14%!!

Put these 2 factors together and you can see why everybody eventually bailed out in a panic and prices collapsed.

[EricE]

roygarth said:

OK, I'm not going to say 'things are different this time', but back then a much larger percent of buyers were borrowing money to buy and base rates were sky high at 14%!!

Put these 2 factors together and you can see why everybody eventually bailed out in a panic and prices collapsed.

Did people really buy old/used Ferraris with borrowed money at a 14% rates? It was well before my time so I have no idea. That would make the current Porsche "bubble" look extremely sensible in comparison.

[arcticGT]

Can anyone fix it for Mk1 GT3 prices to carry on rising while 360 CS prices fall ? Potty Jim's dead, or I would've written to him, hell I might've sat on his knee if he coukv helped.

[grale23]

mollytherocker said:

Any mk1 or mk2 Twin cam engined Escort is what? 100k?

An Escort!!

I remember seeing an RS1800 for sale for £9500 (circa 1992) and laughing till my head fell off. Not laughing now!

RS1800..mmmmm. Still got the original brochure with my teenage DNA on it !

For what its worth I think interest rates will have a big say in which way the market goes, only the rare desirable ones will sit on the money. Like someone said ,where do you put your money if you sold ?

[YoungMD]

g7jhp said:

Sine Metu said:

One of the factors that doesn't get much of a mention is the fantastic condition of 'some' of the cars. The much higher values now make it financially viable to invest in quality restoration. Unloved cars like 964's and SC's were unloved because they were raggedy. When they're refreshed back to something like their original condition they're a whole different car. So that's part of the virtuous circle of increasing prices.

Ultimately however, we need prices to crash so we can all get back to buying and ogling and dreaming and selling, restoring, and above all, driving.

The restoration concept is a nice concept, but in reality most cars just get patched up and sold on for the higher price as it costs to restore cars properly.

At least the higher prices helps enthusiasts justify their man maths!

I agree I wonder wht % of 993, 964, and 3.2's need a throughly good suspension refresh......people don't drive them and store them in garages where all the rubber wll surely dry out

[Moosh]

Sort after cars that are no longer manufactured will always go up in price. There may be slight fluctuations where the price dips for a while (like housing) but as long as there is demand prices will rise.

END OF!

[g7jhp]

Moosh said:

Sort after cars that are no longer manufactured will always go up in price. There may be slight fluctuations where the price dips for a while (like housing) but as long as there is demand prices will rise.

END OF!

All very well if you're buying as a long term investment but most enthusiasts buy to drive and many change cars on a regular basis. Gains aren't guaranteed and often don't offset the running costs if it's being used over a longer term!

Plus buying high is never good as an investor or enthusiast.

[roygarth]

EricE said:

roygarth said:

OK, I'm not going to say 'things are different this time', but back then a much larger percent of buyers were borrowing money to buy and base rates were sky high at 14%!!

Put these 2 factors together and you can see why everybody eventually bailed out in a panic and prices collapsed.

Did people really buy old/used Ferraris with borrowed money at a 14% rates? It was well before my time so I have no idea. That would make the current Porsche "bubble" look extremely sensible in comparison.

Unfortunately it wasn't well before my time and yes the market was fuelled primarily by credit. It really is crucial - if you're paying £14k per annum interest only (plus you'll have a repayment figure on top!)on yer £100k E Type it will change your response to price changes compared with now where the comparable cost is only the loss off 1% after tax interest! Plus if you borrowed it you probably haven't got it or it was secured against your house - factors which can cause panic selling!!

[Moosh]

g7jhp said:

Moosh said:

Sort after cars that are no longer manufactured will always go up in price. There may be slight fluctuations where the price dips for a while (like housing) but as long as there is demand prices will rise.

END OF!

All very well if you're buying as a long term investment but most enthusiasts buy to drive and many change cars on a regular basis. Gains aren't guaranteed and often don't offset the running costs if it's being used over a longer term!

Plus buying high is never good as an investor or enthusiast.

Don't understand what relevance your reply is to any comment I have made. I wonder if you are replying to another thread?

[g7jhp]

Moosh said:

g7jhp said:

Moosh said:

Sort after cars that are no longer manufactured will always go up in price. There may be slight fluctuations where the price dips for a while (like housing) but as long as there is demand prices will rise.

END OF!

All very well if you're buying as a long term investment but most enthusiasts buy to drive and many change cars on a regular basis. Gains aren't guaranteed and often don't offset the running costs if it's being used over a longer term!

Plus buying high is never good as an investor or enthusiast.

Don't understand what relevance your reply is to any comment I have made. I wonder if you are replying to another thread?

Your statement is very simplistic.

People have owned aircooled cars for years without much movement and all of a sudden we're had a massive increase, that's not guaranteed to happen every X years.

All I was doing was adding in some real world variables to consider.

It still requires an owner to hold onto the car for a period of 'time' whilst there are fluctuations and there is a 'cost' to holding onto a Porsche longer term. The benefit of housing is that you can rent it out to cover the costs. If the owner has to sell early they may never see the high value or they may have unexpected running costs.

Longer term demand may drop as cars go electric and these are no longer sought after.

Edited by g7jhp on Thursday 3rd September 14:00

[ORD]

Sought after. That is all.