Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
The way I see it the bubble was created by people missing the boat (like yours truly...) and buying the next best thing in reach without checking if the price is warranted.
2.7 RS. Too expensive? Get a 2.4 S. Too expensive? Get a 930 Turbo. Too expensive? Get a 996 Turbo.
I forgot plenty of cars cars in between but you get the idea.
Porsche built how many 911s from 1964 to 1973? My guess is just over 1500 per year on average. Let's say 15000.
They also built 22000 996 Turbos and even more 997 Turbos.
I think I know which end of the spectrum will take a bigger hit when (if) a correction comes.
That's annoying because I am tempted by a 993/3.2/SC but far too scared to buy in at this point.
2.7 RS. Too expensive? Get a 2.4 S. Too expensive? Get a 930 Turbo. Too expensive? Get a 996 Turbo.
I forgot plenty of cars cars in between but you get the idea.
Porsche built how many 911s from 1964 to 1973? My guess is just over 1500 per year on average. Let's say 15000.
They also built 22000 996 Turbos and even more 997 Turbos.
I think I know which end of the spectrum will take a bigger hit when (if) a correction comes.
That's annoying because I am tempted by a 993/3.2/SC but far too scared to buy in at this point.
g7jhp said:
Moosh said:
g7jhp said:
Moosh said:
Sort after cars that are no longer manufactured will always go up in price. There may be slight fluctuations where the price dips for a while (like housing) but as long as there is demand prices will rise.
END OF!
All very well if you're buying as a long term investment but most enthusiasts buy to drive and many change cars on a regular basis. Gains aren't guaranteed and often don't offset the running costs if it's being used over a longer term!END OF!
Plus buying high is never good as an investor or enthusiast.
People have owned aircooled cars for years without much movement and all of a sudden we're had a massive increase, that's not guaranteed to happen every X years.
All I was doing was adding in some real world variables to consider.
It still requires an owner to hold onto the car for a period of 'time' whilst there are fluctuations and there is a 'cost' to holding onto a Porsche longer term. The benefit of housing is that you can rent it out to cover the costs. If the owner has to sell early they may never see the high value or they may have unexpected running costs.
Longer term demand may drop as cars go electric and these are no longer sought after.
Edited by g7jhp on Thursday 3rd September 14:00
Moosh said:
Sort after cars that are no longer manufactured will always go up in price. There may be slight fluctuations where the price dips for a while (like housing) but as long as there is demand prices will rise.
END OF!
You obviously we're not buying and selling at the end of the eighties. Prices plummeted. They did come back but it took 20 years for anything other than exceptional cars like GTOs etc.END OF!
Maybe people forget, about enjoyment of a nice car.
Value never came into play for me up or down.
I knew it would cost me money, as does any car some big bills others small.
I had a good offer a while back, thought what could take its place nothing came to my mind.
Buy the best car you find, enjoy it and improve the car as time goes.
Value never came into play for me up or down.
I knew it would cost me money, as does any car some big bills others small.
I had a good offer a while back, thought what could take its place nothing came to my mind.
Buy the best car you find, enjoy it and improve the car as time goes.
Edited by SEE YA on Thursday 3rd September 16:14
drmark said:
Moosh said:
Sort after cars that are no longer manufactured will always go up in price. There may be slight fluctuations where the price dips for a while (like housing) but as long as there is demand prices will rise.
END OF!
You obviously we're not buying and selling at the end of the eighties. Prices plummeted. They did come back but it took 20 years for anything other than exceptional cars like GTOs etc.END OF!
With talk like that you will drive the prices down. 
drmark said:
Moosh said:
Sort after cars that are no longer manufactured will always go up in price. There may be slight fluctuations where the price dips for a while (like housing) but as long as there is demand prices will rise.
END OF!
You obviously we're not buying and selling at the end of the eighties. Prices plummeted. They did come back but it took 20 years for anything other than exceptional cars like GTOs etc.END OF!
swimd said:
Porsche built how many 911s from 1964 to 1973? My guess is just over 1500 per year on average. Let's say 15000.
They also built 22000 996 Turbos and even more 997 Turbos.
I think I know which end of the spectrum will take a bigger hit when (if) a correction comes.
That's annoying because I am tempted by a 993/3.2/SC but far too scared to buy in at this point.
Supply and demand will always be a factor. What I would throw in is that of the many thousands of 997 Turbos build how many will actually be of collectable condition in say 10 or 20 years time? They have become some peoples daily drivers so high mileage kicks in. Wealth has generally improved and money is cheap - PCP deals can get you into a new porsche every three years for not a great deal of money per month. Will these cars be as cared for as someone who actually owns the car? They also built 22000 996 Turbos and even more 997 Turbos.
I think I know which end of the spectrum will take a bigger hit when (if) a correction comes.
That's annoying because I am tempted by a 993/3.2/SC but far too scared to buy in at this point.
I've been shopping for a 996 C4S for a few months now and it seems as though dogs are plentiful but decent ones are getting scarcer. The market isn't clear cut but I have missed two decent C4S now at sensible money while others seem to have really stuck (perhaps due to location, condition, asking price etc). Dealers seem to be the ones really fuelling any bubble (was told today that I would need to spend £30K on a decent one today which is just rubbish)
I have two left on my shortlist and hopefully will have "the one" on Saturday so we will see.
Innowaybored said:
Wealth has generally improved and money is cheap - PCP deals can get you into a new porsche every three years for not a great deal of money per month. Will these cars be as cared for as someone who actually owns the car?
I'm not sure about the wealth thing, but yeah car credit deals really have been a game changer for all new car sales. Having said that Porsche credit is a total rip-off!Not sure how any of this is relevant to the current classic car price bubble though? I thought it was all just a backlash from people pulling their cash out of more traditional stock and share portfolios after the last stock market crash.
swimd said:
The way I see it the bubble was created by people missing the boat (like yours truly...) and buying the next best thing in reach without checking if the price is warranted.
2.7 RS. Too expensive? Get a 2.4 S. Too expensive? Get a 930 Turbo. Too expensive? Get a 996 Turbo.
I forgot plenty of cars cars in between but you get the idea.
Porsche built how many 911s from 1964 to 1973? My guess is just over 1500 per year on average. Let's say 15000.
They also built 22000 996 Turbos and even more 997 Turbos.
I think I know which end of the spectrum will take a bigger hit when (if) a correction comes.
That's annoying because I am tempted by a 993/3.2/SC but far too scared to buy in at this point.
A long way off !! 15 thousand just about covers 1973 production. Between 1964 and 1973 Porsche built something like 85 thousand 911s if you count all the models. About 15 thousand SWB and 70 thousand LWB. The UK was a very small part of the market with about 1700 cars in total for that era so that creates some interesting dynamics around the RHD market. I did work out on an envelope recently the rough production numbers for each era of aircooled 911 as I was pondering the current dynamics of the market. It works out about 70 thousand ish per era (993, 964, 3.2, SC, 2.7s, pre-impact bumper). Includes the relevant Turbos in each era. It is not a rare car from a world market point of view so you have to pick the cars to put your money into carefully.2.7 RS. Too expensive? Get a 2.4 S. Too expensive? Get a 930 Turbo. Too expensive? Get a 996 Turbo.
I forgot plenty of cars cars in between but you get the idea.
Porsche built how many 911s from 1964 to 1973? My guess is just over 1500 per year on average. Let's say 15000.
They also built 22000 996 Turbos and even more 997 Turbos.
I think I know which end of the spectrum will take a bigger hit when (if) a correction comes.
That's annoying because I am tempted by a 993/3.2/SC but far too scared to buy in at this point.
Edited by ian_uk on Thursday 3rd September 22:09
uktrailmonster said:
SEE YA said:
Maybe people forget, about enjoyment of a nice car.
I certainly do when they start to cost too much!I do not drink or smoke, my money goes on my car its my hobby.
g7jhp said:
Cars that often don't appear 'rare' can be hard to get your hands on if you have an ideal spec.
As you say 996 turbo wasn't rare, but start looking for a manual, coupe in the right colour, spec, condition and history it soon limits the cars. This goes for most models.
Yes I found that on my search, condition of some cars and prices were shocking.As you say 996 turbo wasn't rare, but start looking for a manual, coupe in the right colour, spec, condition and history it soon limits the cars. This goes for most models.
I took my time, in the end found a solid base car and went from there.
I wonder what people feel are the really truly special 911's that warrant blue chip bullet proof investment status. Is it time to reappraise? It seems everyone at some point pitches every model for whatever reason. My car for example is a 996 C2. To me it's a very special car. That's a personal thing. I definitely believe it's a very special car in the wider car universe factually. It's still a Porsche, it's a 911, it's incredibly fast if you want it to be, it drives sublimely and I think it looks fabulous. In comparison to 95% of cars out there ever. And it's pretty rare in overall total car terms. But in 911 terms specifically, or all sports car/super car terms, it's not that rare or special. It isn't going to stop the high street in its tracks driving down the road. Nor is any watercooled car, unless your twelve. Not even turbo's or GT3's. To the world at large, they're all modern everyday 911's. 996/7/1 turbo's are all great thunderbolt cars. But are they really individually special? There's always a newer better one coming along. And in a future of hybrid and mass turbocharging, is there really a special magical element to them? When the focus is power and speed, it's a shaky thing to hang your hat on when new C2S's can match earlier turbo's. As will a lot of mass market uber saloons. Or American tuned V8's. Or garage maestros like Noble.
So what about air cooled cars? Are they all super special? In totality, are air cooled 911's all that rare? Maybe it depends on where you live but I've always seen lots of them around. Including a hell of a lot of ropey looking ones that appear to be dragging their back bumpers on the road. Whereas, apart from shows and museums, it's really rare for me to spot an old Ferrari or an old Lamborghini. I've never seem a Miura driving down the road ever. Or even a Urraco or an Espada. I think I've seen a Testarossa twice in my entire life on the road. I saw a Maserati Khamsin once parked in London (and it looked amazing in the flesh). I saw a De Tomaso Pantera twice but never any other type. I saw a Daytona once, again parked in London. And once I saw a COuntach, in Dublin. I see an E-tppe once in a while. When did you last overtake a De Lorean, or a Lancia Stratos, or an Aston Martin Lagonda? These are stop the traffic cars. However, I'm sure within the air cooled pantheon there are one or two specific models that really stand out. The 2.7RS was way before my time so they mean little to me. I just like the way they look. The 930 was of my time and it's very special to me because of the looks and the impact it made. 964/993 turbos? Great cars I'm sure but are they really that 'special?'
The standard 993 is interesting, It doesn't have the classic 911 body but it's still a beauty, and drives relatively well. But are they really that rare? I remember seeing hundreds of them rumbling through the streets of London (unless it was the same one - they always seemed to be silver) in the late 90's.
GT3's? The thing about these cars for me is that if you're true to the original brief of the car, it's raison d'etre was to be as fast as possible around a track, regularly and still be relatively bearable on the road. At least enough to get you to the track and back. But they still make them and each new one is faster than the last one. I get the connectivity to the racing thoroughbred ideal, but fundamentally, they are all of that ilk. Why buy an older one for huge money when you can a get a newer one. They're all watercooled modern 911's (Mezger and all that included).
So I'd throw out a word of caution. Some of the prices for some of the cars are understandable. But I'd be very cautious about jumping into any air cooled or water cooled for purely an investment unless it really was a particularly 'special' car. I think there's far too many variants out there crowding the scene and claiming 'classic collectable 911' status. The magazines and dealers are literally from month to month bouncing from one model to another randomly, cheerleading the mania, trying to find a space at the table for everyone. Nostalgia is all well and good and I think it's a big driver of ordinary cars shooting up like random 1990 BMW 7 series and old Audi 80's that should have been scrapped. But those are time bubbles that must come and go.
So what about air cooled cars? Are they all super special? In totality, are air cooled 911's all that rare? Maybe it depends on where you live but I've always seen lots of them around. Including a hell of a lot of ropey looking ones that appear to be dragging their back bumpers on the road. Whereas, apart from shows and museums, it's really rare for me to spot an old Ferrari or an old Lamborghini. I've never seem a Miura driving down the road ever. Or even a Urraco or an Espada. I think I've seen a Testarossa twice in my entire life on the road. I saw a Maserati Khamsin once parked in London (and it looked amazing in the flesh). I saw a De Tomaso Pantera twice but never any other type. I saw a Daytona once, again parked in London. And once I saw a COuntach, in Dublin. I see an E-tppe once in a while. When did you last overtake a De Lorean, or a Lancia Stratos, or an Aston Martin Lagonda? These are stop the traffic cars. However, I'm sure within the air cooled pantheon there are one or two specific models that really stand out. The 2.7RS was way before my time so they mean little to me. I just like the way they look. The 930 was of my time and it's very special to me because of the looks and the impact it made. 964/993 turbos? Great cars I'm sure but are they really that 'special?'
The standard 993 is interesting, It doesn't have the classic 911 body but it's still a beauty, and drives relatively well. But are they really that rare? I remember seeing hundreds of them rumbling through the streets of London (unless it was the same one - they always seemed to be silver) in the late 90's.
GT3's? The thing about these cars for me is that if you're true to the original brief of the car, it's raison d'etre was to be as fast as possible around a track, regularly and still be relatively bearable on the road. At least enough to get you to the track and back. But they still make them and each new one is faster than the last one. I get the connectivity to the racing thoroughbred ideal, but fundamentally, they are all of that ilk. Why buy an older one for huge money when you can a get a newer one. They're all watercooled modern 911's (Mezger and all that included).
So I'd throw out a word of caution. Some of the prices for some of the cars are understandable. But I'd be very cautious about jumping into any air cooled or water cooled for purely an investment unless it really was a particularly 'special' car. I think there's far too many variants out there crowding the scene and claiming 'classic collectable 911' status. The magazines and dealers are literally from month to month bouncing from one model to another randomly, cheerleading the mania, trying to find a space at the table for everyone. Nostalgia is all well and good and I think it's a big driver of ordinary cars shooting up like random 1990 BMW 7 series and old Audi 80's that should have been scrapped. But those are time bubbles that must come and go.
I think people are getting muddled between a few things.
Are air cooled cars an investment? Not unless you are going to keep them a long time, and even then the cost of maintenance might offset any gains. Of course, super rarities might be a different box of frogs. But they are for the super rich.
What they are, are great old fashioned raw and quirky cars that are fun to drive and own.
You will need to spend some money on upkeep, but there is a good chance that you will lose very little and they will almost pay for themselves. Even if they do have a dip in the next few years.
There is no way there is going to be a huge crash, there are just too many enthusiasts chasing few cars.
Are air cooled cars an investment? Not unless you are going to keep them a long time, and even then the cost of maintenance might offset any gains. Of course, super rarities might be a different box of frogs. But they are for the super rich.
What they are, are great old fashioned raw and quirky cars that are fun to drive and own.
You will need to spend some money on upkeep, but there is a good chance that you will lose very little and they will almost pay for themselves. Even if they do have a dip in the next few years.
There is no way there is going to be a huge crash, there are just too many enthusiasts chasing few cars.
mollytherocker said:
I think people are getting muddled between a few things.
Are air cooled cars an investment? Not unless you are going to keep them a long time, and even then the cost of maintenance might offset any gains. Of course, super rarities might be a different box of frogs. But they are for the super rich.
What they are, are great old fashioned raw and quirky cars that are fun to drive and own.
You will need to spend some money on upkeep, but there is a good chance that you will lose very little and they will almost pay for themselves. Even if they do have a dip in the next few years.
There is no way there is going to be a huge crash, there are just too many enthusiasts chasing few cars.
Buy to enjoy, you know like with any old car you have to look after them.Are air cooled cars an investment? Not unless you are going to keep them a long time, and even then the cost of maintenance might offset any gains. Of course, super rarities might be a different box of frogs. But they are for the super rich.
What they are, are great old fashioned raw and quirky cars that are fun to drive and own.
You will need to spend some money on upkeep, but there is a good chance that you will lose very little and they will almost pay for themselves. Even if they do have a dip in the next few years.
There is no way there is going to be a huge crash, there are just too many enthusiasts chasing few cars.
You drive you pay.
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