Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
"The results of Chris Evans auction at Bonhams were below expectation. Several of the big ticket items failed to sell and the ones that did sell were at or below the lower guide price. Someone on here may have the full list of results."
http://k500.com/story-item/bonhams-at-the-goodwood...
http://k500.com/story-item/bonhams-at-the-goodwood...
Now the winter months are looming you'll see some major price alterations over the coming period.
You also have to take into consideration that a lot of the so called classic stock hasn't even shifted over the Summer months. I would suggest that even the speculators of this world are realising that the prices are just over inflated
You also have to take into consideration that a lot of the so called classic stock hasn't even shifted over the Summer months. I would suggest that even the speculators of this world are realising that the prices are just over inflated
Crimp said:
Now the winter months are looming you'll see some major price alterations over the coming period.
You also have to take into consideration that a lot of the so called classic stock hasn't even shifted over the Summer months. I would suggest that even the speculators of this world are realising that the prices are just over inflated
fair comment - but let's not forget they're entering spring in Australia You also have to take into consideration that a lot of the so called classic stock hasn't even shifted over the Summer months. I would suggest that even the speculators of this world are realising that the prices are just over inflated
Bo_apex said:
fair comment - but let's not forget they're entering spring in Australia
Driven by the commodities slump the Australian Dollar has now reached 2.2 to the £1 (compared to 1.5 to the £1 in Jan 2013). There won't be much interest in exporting classics to Australia this year.Edited by 355Chris355 on Thursday 17th September 18:46
355Chris355 said:
Driven by the commodities slump the Australian Dollar has now reached 2.2 to the £1 (compared to 1.5 to the £1 in Jan 2013). There won't be much interest in exporting classics to Australia this year.
yes, as a whole it's down, but there's still plenty of motivated home-and-dry collectors about. Had an enquiry about the 308 from Perth just last week, I'd rather it stayed in the UK to be honest, will see how if the numbers shake out.Edited by 355Chris355 on Thursday 17th September 18:46
Crimp said:
I would suggest that even the speculators of this world are realising that the prices are just over inflated
I would say it's specifically the speculators who are getting cold feet and slowing the market. Genuine collectors and enthusiasts are probably still there for the long-run, but will be wanting to pay the right prices. 355Chris355 said:
Driven by the commodities slump the Australian Dollar has now reached 2.2 to the £1 (compared to 1.5 to the £1 in Jan 2013). There won't be much interest in exporting classics to Australia this year.
Is there an Aussie Autotrader, I'm going to see if I can find any 2 door Mk1 Escorts! Edited by 355Chris355 on Thursday 17th September 18:46
Some speculators are pulling away from the classic market, but that's at the high end £1m plus cars.
Some of the estimated prices were unrealistic and I wonder how Many that sold for less than lowest estimate still made a good return for their owner.
If the U.S. delay interest rate hikes much longer then they won't happen until after the elections in 2016 and that will reinvigorate the market early 2016 IMO.
Some of the estimated prices were unrealistic and I wonder how Many that sold for less than lowest estimate still made a good return for their owner.
If the U.S. delay interest rate hikes much longer then they won't happen until after the elections in 2016 and that will reinvigorate the market early 2016 IMO.
Xpuffin said:
Some speculators are pulling away from the classic market, but that's at the high end £1m plus cars.
Some of the estimated prices were unrealistic and I wonder how Many that sold for less than lowest estimate still made a good return for their owner.
If the U.S. delay interest rate hikes much longer then they won't happen until after the elections in 2016 and that will reinvigorate the market early 2016 IMO.
As you alude to, this is the top end of the market. Its got nothing to do with 50k 964C2's, thats something entirely different.Some of the estimated prices were unrealistic and I wonder how Many that sold for less than lowest estimate still made a good return for their owner.
If the U.S. delay interest rate hikes much longer then they won't happen until after the elections in 2016 and that will reinvigorate the market early 2016 IMO.
You cant just lump all of the cars into one market. There are many layers.
mollytherocker said:
As you alude to, this is the top end of the market. Its got nothing to do with 50k 964C2's, thats something entirely different.
You cant just lump all of the cars into one market. There are many layers.
Yes - once a collector is priced out of the top tier they move along to the next layer, or three.You cant just lump all of the cars into one market. There are many layers.
Sierra Cosworths at £25K +......
ORD said:
Huh?
I take that post as evidence that there is still a lot of confidence out there. Someone is trying to sell a fairly rough LHD 993 for well over £30k. Even if they get only £30k, that is still very toppy!
It's a 964.I take that post as evidence that there is still a lot of confidence out there. Someone is trying to sell a fairly rough LHD 993 for well over £30k. Even if they get only £30k, that is still very toppy!
The only confidence being shown is from the seller. This will soon evaporate when it doesn't sell.
mollytherocker said:
As you alude to, this is the top end of the market. Its got nothing to do with 50k 964C2's, thats something entirely different.
You cant just lump all of the cars into one market. There are many layers.
Can't you. Plenty of people here were using the mega prices of the blue chip as signal that the market was hot.You cant just lump all of the cars into one market. There are many layers.
Surely the classic and aircooled market is similar to ripple effect in the housing market. Everyone would like X car, but it's too expensive so they move for the next best alternative, just like settling for the next best postcode to the ideal postcode. It trickles down the different price bands.
I can see some cars starting to be more realistically priced as sellers look to sell and take a profit whilst it's still there to be made.
If you look through the classifieds there are a lot of cars that have been for sale for months and months yet are still at the same price, I include in this some newish stuff as well not just aircooled cars.
The funny thing is how bullish sellers are with regards to price, they have cars at high asking prices that are not selling yet when asked about the car they come out with things like "Full asking price only, no offers considered, this is an investment blah,blah,blah..." Then the full history mentioned in the advert is in fact only a stamped book with NO supporting invoices for works done in the life of the car, or there is a five year gap in the FULL history etc.
I think at the moment sellers really think it doesn't matter how long they sit there for sale as they are not going to ever drop and be worth less, so they are confident it's like money in the bank anyway, IF that confidence disappears then people are going to be looking at a loss every week it doesn't sell, then things will become interesting.
The funny thing is how bullish sellers are with regards to price, they have cars at high asking prices that are not selling yet when asked about the car they come out with things like "Full asking price only, no offers considered, this is an investment blah,blah,blah..." Then the full history mentioned in the advert is in fact only a stamped book with NO supporting invoices for works done in the life of the car, or there is a five year gap in the FULL history etc.
I think at the moment sellers really think it doesn't matter how long they sit there for sale as they are not going to ever drop and be worth less, so they are confident it's like money in the bank anyway, IF that confidence disappears then people are going to be looking at a loss every week it doesn't sell, then things will become interesting.
pete a said:
If you look through the classifieds there are a lot of cars that have been for sale for months and months yet are still at the same price, I include in this some newish stuff as well not just aircooled cars.
The funny thing is how bullish sellers are with regards to price, they have cars at high asking prices that are not selling yet when asked about the car they come out with things like "Full asking price only, no offers considered, this is an investment blah,blah,blah..." Then the full history mentioned in the advert is in fact only a stamped book with NO supporting invoices for works done in the life of the car, or there is a five year gap in the FULL history etc.
I think at the moment sellers really think it doesn't matter how long they sit there for sale as they are not going to ever drop and be worth less, so they are confident it's like money in the bank anyway, IF that confidence disappears then people are going to be looking at a loss every week it doesn't sell, then things will become interesting.
It seems a strange way to sell cars, maybe it works for some dealers but not others, they seem to hang on to certain cars and up the price every few months, hoping they'll sell. It's not just modern / classic Porsches either. Case in point - back in 2010 I was looking for a Mk2 Cooper (shortish production run '67 to '69), I went down to GC Motors in Kent who had a nice looking restored example, up for £10k which they'd had for about eighteen months. It still needed a few bits doing so I offered £9k which they refused so I walked away and found another one cheaper elsewhere which I bought. Roll on two years and that same Cooper is still there with a price tag of £13k. Earlier this year I noticed it's still there with the price upped to £16k. I had a look again a few days ago and it's still there, with the price now at £20k. They've had it for at least six and a half years...!The funny thing is how bullish sellers are with regards to price, they have cars at high asking prices that are not selling yet when asked about the car they come out with things like "Full asking price only, no offers considered, this is an investment blah,blah,blah..." Then the full history mentioned in the advert is in fact only a stamped book with NO supporting invoices for works done in the life of the car, or there is a five year gap in the FULL history etc.
I think at the moment sellers really think it doesn't matter how long they sit there for sale as they are not going to ever drop and be worth less, so they are confident it's like money in the bank anyway, IF that confidence disappears then people are going to be looking at a loss every week it doesn't sell, then things will become interesting.
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