Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
mollytherocker said:
YoungMD said:
There is some truth in what you say, but where we are now is not sensible, i mean SC's selling for north of £30k, 3.2 £40k+, a decent 3.2 should be £25k. Your assumption would be correct if there is really a big rise in people that want old 911's that will remain, and i don't think thats the case, some people, me included love 911's especially air cooled, but there are many people that don't have our rose tinted glasses and hate the heating, oil smell, racket of trash cans being knocked over when you start the engine etc etc etc .... these fly by night investors and trend followers will go and with them the speculation and inflated values
A decent 3.2 should be 25k?Why? A decent 3.2 is circa 40k, thats a fact. I would like them to be 10k again, but that makes no difference to the truth!
I think that talk of a bubble is over simplifying the whole Porsche market. There is much going on, much of it mentioned here.
Its possible that there could be a correction at the very top of the market, but I reckon lower to middle end of the air cooled market is at the correct level, having had a correction over the past 3 years, yes, there are some daft prices on some individual cars, but thats always been the case. Air cooleds have nearly doubled and I see that holding for some time yet, and then a further increase.
Only my view of course, anything could happen.
In pure economical terms that is a massive value increase, that can only be driven by supply reducing or demand increasing, has supply reduced? a little bit but not much, has demand increased, hell yes, but has genuine demand increased, do double the people now suddenly love and want a 3.2, compared to the 10 years prior? And that's my problem, genuine sustainable demand has not really increased, using houses as a comparison the answer is different of course, but 911 demand will reset more in line with history and thus prices will correct
YoungMD said:
mollytherocker said:
YoungMD said:
There is some truth in what you say, but where we are now is not sensible, i mean SC's selling for north of £30k, 3.2 £40k+, a decent 3.2 should be £25k. Your assumption would be correct if there is really a big rise in people that want old 911's that will remain, and i don't think thats the case, some people, me included love 911's especially air cooled, but there are many people that don't have our rose tinted glasses and hate the heating, oil smell, racket of trash cans being knocked over when you start the engine etc etc etc .... these fly by night investors and trend followers will go and with them the speculation and inflated values
A decent 3.2 should be 25k?Why? A decent 3.2 is circa 40k, thats a fact. I would like them to be 10k again, but that makes no difference to the truth!
I think that talk of a bubble is over simplifying the whole Porsche market. There is much going on, much of it mentioned here.
Its possible that there could be a correction at the very top of the market, but I reckon lower to middle end of the air cooled market is at the correct level, having had a correction over the past 3 years, yes, there are some daft prices on some individual cars, but thats always been the case. Air cooleds have nearly doubled and I see that holding for some time yet, and then a further increase.
Only my view of course, anything could happen.
In pure economical terms that is a massive value increase, that can only be driven by supply reducing or demand increasing, has supply reduced? a little bit but not much, has demand increased, hell yes, but has genuine demand increased, do double the people now suddenly love and want a 3.2, compared to the 10 years prior? And that's my problem, genuine sustainable demand has not really increased, using houses as a comparison the answer is different of course, but 911 demand will reset more in line with history and thus prices will correct
Anyone saying enthusiast numbers has taken a massive jump must live in a petrolhead community. I actually think petrolheads are decreasing amongst the general population which is backed up by the number of young people not getting their driving licence.
The real price increase has been 18-24 months which has seen a lot of news in the media about the rise in the value of classic cars at a time other assets aren't paying out and people have cash to invest. A perfect storm (for speculators).
I have been asked by a number of people interested in cars and non-petrolheads about what to buy and always suggest buying something that is likely to be sort after and they'd be happy to keep if prices dropped.
Long term I think a manual 3.2/964 C2/993 C2 coupe is a good bet as they have enthusiast following and if you bought before the recent rises you're safe. But I and seemingly a number of other 'proper enthusiasts' wouldn't buy at present prices as they don't offer value v other alternatives.
I might be completely wrong, prices only really matter if you're looking to buy into, sell a car or have bought as an investment at an uncertain time.
If I'd bought low and had potential profit sitting in an aircooled Porsche right now and was thinking about moving on to my next car I'd be looking to realise that profit now.
If you're an enthusiast keep your car it'll keep moving upwards longer term (until we run out of fuel/electric cars arrive).
mollytherocker said:
Tracey Emin sold her unmade bed for what? £10m? Now thats where crazy town is.
On that basis, I would value a 964C2 at about £2bn. But it doesn't work like that does it?
I think you are underestimating the guy or lady who buys a 964 for 40k. I expect they know exactly what they want.
I believe Saatchi bought the bed at a knock down price of just £150,000. On that basis, I would value a 964C2 at about £2bn. But it doesn't work like that does it?
I think you are underestimating the guy or lady who buys a 964 for 40k. I expect they know exactly what they want.
If someone buys a 964 at £49k, they'd only lose about £7k on it when prices correct. Unless they've been silly enough to be suckered into buying a 120k mile, tatty Guards C2. In which case, they'd be left holding the runt of the littler that'd need £10k thrown at it for restoration and still wouldn't be first in the queue when it comes to eager buyers wanting to snap it up.
And that's where it is getting silly.
Tracey Emin bed again is just simple economics, supply = 1 demand > 1; and importantly the demand is from people with money a plenty, normal 911 demand is from normal enthusiasts generally wise with their car purchases, 911 air cooled demand now has spread to investors and such like that generally have more money and a very different buying criteria, thus the market change
I think there is a hybrid buyer here. One who is an enthusiast but a bit worried of running costs and initial purchase price. However they find the fact the prices are rising and with a bit of man maths the car is suddenly a reality.
Now that same buyer will stop buying and potentially dump an owned car if they feel the peak of prices has been reached.
TBH it's like playing the stock market, so god knows what it will do
Dave
Now that same buyer will stop buying and potentially dump an owned car if they feel the peak of prices has been reached.
TBH it's like playing the stock market, so god knows what it will do
Dave
When looking to buy my first boxster in the late 90s a second hand car was at price parity with a new one. This continued till around 2002. By the time the 987 launched the values had massively fallen out of bed. Similarly 911s were historically almost immune from depreciation. Not any more.
It's bizzare that new stuff depreciates in the main while the values of old stuff does the opposite. Maybe that situation won't last. I do think a lot of it is based on supply and demand. GOOD AC cars are scarce. Those that have had money lavished on them are special to drive. I. Can see that the values of the less than great cars have been dragged up as result.
I say again if you want a nice low miles manual AC car with history, no stories and some spec where do you buy it? Who sets value at £30k or £50k or £80k?
It's bizzare that new stuff depreciates in the main while the values of old stuff does the opposite. Maybe that situation won't last. I do think a lot of it is based on supply and demand. GOOD AC cars are scarce. Those that have had money lavished on them are special to drive. I. Can see that the values of the less than great cars have been dragged up as result.
I say again if you want a nice low miles manual AC car with history, no stories and some spec where do you buy it? Who sets value at £30k or £50k or £80k?
highway said:
When looking to buy my first boxster in the late 90s a second hand car was at price parity with a new one. This continued till around 2002. By the time the 987 launched the values had massively fallen out of bed. Similarly 911s were historically almost immune from depreciation. Not any more.
It's bizzare that new stuff depreciates in the main while the values of old stuff does the opposite. Maybe that situation won't last. I do think a lot of it is based on supply and demand. GOOD AC cars are scarce. Those that have had money lavished on them are special to drive. I. Can see that the values of the less than great cars have been dragged up as result.
I say again if you want a nice low miles manual AC car with history, no stories and some spec where do you buy it? Who sets value at £30k or £50k or £80k?
New Porsche have always depreciated. How did a £45k 964 become a £15k 964 if it didn't depreciate? The older cars are simply at a different stage of their lifetime value curve. Some are helped by vastly lower numbers but there are more modern 911's take manual 997.2 coupes which will be much the same.It's bizzare that new stuff depreciates in the main while the values of old stuff does the opposite. Maybe that situation won't last. I do think a lot of it is based on supply and demand. GOOD AC cars are scarce. Those that have had money lavished on them are special to drive. I. Can see that the values of the less than great cars have been dragged up as result.
I say again if you want a nice low miles manual AC car with history, no stories and some spec where do you buy it? Who sets value at £30k or £50k or £80k?
I do agree that a nice low mileage AC car with history will always be worth more than an average car, but it'll still be based on the average market price at the time, how much the buyer wants it (paying too much) or how much the seller needs to sell it (getting a bargain).
[quote=highway] Similarly 911s were historically almost immune from depreciation. Not any more.
I think they depreciate less now than ever before, iv'e always bought at between 3 1/2 and 5 years old and 1/2 of the value has been lost in that time, (depending on the state of the economy at the time), that's now only true if you buy the outgoing model, as in 997 when the 991 has been in showrooms for months.
I think they depreciate less now than ever before, iv'e always bought at between 3 1/2 and 5 years old and 1/2 of the value has been lost in that time, (depending on the state of the economy at the time), that's now only true if you buy the outgoing model, as in 997 when the 991 has been in showrooms for months.
John Henry said:
But not all NEW Porsche does depreciate. See GT3, GT4 RS models etc
.
New phenomenon since the - 991 GT3 - 991 GT3RS, GT4, 918 - all low volume models but afaik other models depreciate. The switch from na to turbo cars will provide a fillip to all, I suppose..
M cars from BMW & RS cars from Audi depreciate.
John Henry said:
But not all NEW Porsche does depreciate. See GT3, GT4 RS models etc
The trade value of a 964 coupe was around £13k with average miles and in good condition circa 2000.
I think you will find the 991 gt3 is now starting to drop in price, yes they are still being advertised above list but due to the high volume currently for sale this may change over the next few months as we run into winter. A lot of cars advertised have already been reduced in price. £135 to £140k seems to be the new advertising price by dealers and these cars aren't even selling. The trade value of a 964 coupe was around £13k with average miles and in good condition circa 2000.
I guess it's down to supply and demand, and the demand just ain't here at the prices currently advertised.
GT4RS said:
I think you will find the 991 gt3 is now starting to drop in price, yes they are still being advertised above list but due to the high volume currently for sale this may change over the next few months as we run into winter. A lot of cars advertised have already been reduced in price. £135 to £140k seems to be the new advertising price by dealers and these cars aren't even selling.
I guess it's down to supply and demand, and the demand just ain't here at the prices currently advertised.
You post quite prolifically on the subject of 991 GT3 prices so clearly have an interest in them, at what point on the price curve will you be buying one? I guess it's down to supply and demand, and the demand just ain't here at the prices currently advertised.
Serious question.
SEE YA said:
Looking at this topic, did anyone buy to enjoy the car in question?
I know that was my reason 'EVERY MILE IS A SMILE' When it goes time to sell.
Had a quick drive today, then git it cleaned, been filthy n the garage after recent use and going out in the rain. Going to be well shiny for next weekend, until it does 5 hours on the motorway. I know that was my reason 'EVERY MILE IS A SMILE' When it goes time to sell.
Edited by SEE YA on Sunday 9th August 13:46
pete a said:
You post quite prolifically on the subject of 991 GT3 prices so clearly have an interest in them, at what point on the price curve will you be buying one?
Serious question.
Peter I think you have asked me a similar question before?Serious question.
As the market for these cars appears to be some what over inflated I'm happy to wait and watch from the side lines. The car will be bought as a third car so there is no real rush. What I wouldn't want to do is buy one for 135k and find out 3 months later they were being advertised below list.
I guess you are an owner of a 991 gt3 and are concerned about future values as you seem to be quite keen to question some of my posts?
I would like to point out I'm not here to upset any 991 gt3 owner, this is a forum and the threads I have joined are about values and up until now my posts are in line with how the market is performing.
GT4RS said:
Peter I think you have asked me a similar question before?
As the market for these cars appears to be some what over inflated I'm happy to wait and watch from the side lines. The car will be bought as a third car so there is no real rush. What I wouldn't want to do is buy one for 135k and find out 3 months later they were being advertised below list.
I guess you are an owner of a 991 gt3 and are concerned about future values as you seem to be quite keen to question some of my posts?
I would like to point out I'm not here to upset any 991 gt3 owner, this is a forum and the threads I have joined are about values and up until now my posts are in line with how the market is performing.
Hi, I'm sorry I don't know what your name is, in answer to your question in answer to mine is, no I don't own a 991 GT3, I think it looks great and drives great by the sound of things (well that's what Sidicks said As the market for these cars appears to be some what over inflated I'm happy to wait and watch from the side lines. The car will be bought as a third car so there is no real rush. What I wouldn't want to do is buy one for 135k and find out 3 months later they were being advertised below list.
I guess you are an owner of a 991 gt3 and are concerned about future values as you seem to be quite keen to question some of my posts?
I would like to point out I'm not here to upset any 991 gt3 owner, this is a forum and the threads I have joined are about values and up until now my posts are in line with how the market is performing.
) but I can't afford one even if they are at list, well unless I take out a big lump of finance which I'm not prepared to do, how's that for honesty.I only asked the question of you as you clearly want one but at the right price, nothing wrong with that at all, I was just curios to see where that price point is for you???
Will you answer with an answer though???
YoungMD said:
So if a 3.2 is now worth £40k that means it's doubled is value over the last 2 maybe 3 years?
In pure economical terms that is a massive value increase, that can only be driven by supply reducing or demand increasing, has supply reduced? a little bit but not much, has demand increased, hell yes, but has genuine demand increased, do double the people now suddenly love and want a 3.2, compared to the 10 years prior? And that's my problem, genuine sustainable demand has not really increased, using houses as a comparison the answer is different of course, but 911 demand will reset more in line with history and thus prices will correct
I would suggest that demand for 3.2's ( and probably SC's ) has increased as a default position - previously ( 5-6 years ago ) people myself included would have (probably) bought a pre-impact 911 i.e S / E / T however the price of those cars has risen to such a degree that the next position on the ladder is a 3.2 so perhaps double the people do suddenly want a 3.2 or an SC , maybe not as a first choice but as an aircooled 911 default choice !In pure economical terms that is a massive value increase, that can only be driven by supply reducing or demand increasing, has supply reduced? a little bit but not much, has demand increased, hell yes, but has genuine demand increased, do double the people now suddenly love and want a 3.2, compared to the 10 years prior? And that's my problem, genuine sustainable demand has not really increased, using houses as a comparison the answer is different of course, but 911 demand will reset more in line with history and thus prices will correct
To use your house comparison, if people can't afford a four bedroomed house I guess they buy a three bedroomed one. There's an unlimited number of those around but the same can't be said of air cooled 911's !
I've owned around twenty three aircooled 911's ( and quite a few water cooled ones ) and the 911 I enjoy the most as a useable, driveable, enjoyable car is my 3.2 ( thanks Crimp !)
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