Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Porsche GT2, GT3, GT4, RS, Spyder Production Numbers highlighted here (Although we're still filling in the blanks).Certain cars may not be rare in total production numbers but start adding some simple 'must have' features and they can soon become hard to find and more expensive to acquire. Over time this is accelerated as cars are crashed, badly maintained, too high mileage or missing history.
GT3's may ever be easier to find (at a price) as they don't have so many variables!
g7jhp said:
Porsche GT2, GT3, GT4, RS, Spyder Production Numbers highlighted here (Although we're still filling in the blanks).
Certain cars may not be rare in total production numbers but start adding some simple 'must have' features and they can soon become hard to find and more expensive to acquire. Over time this is accelerated as cars are crashed, badly maintained, too high mileage or missing history.
GT3's may ever be easier to find (at a price) as they don't have so many variables!
how many 7 RS are there by the way....? as in do you have a verfiable source for the numbers as quoted. I know the gt3 rs registry website has those figures as quoted but... someone I was talking to pointed me to thisCertain cars may not be rare in total production numbers but start adding some simple 'must have' features and they can soon become hard to find and more expensive to acquire. Over time this is accelerated as cars are crashed, badly maintained, too high mileage or missing history.
GT3's may ever be easier to find (at a price) as they don't have so many variables!
http://www.total911.com/datafile/911-gt3-rs/
and 1100 7.1 RS cars sounds extraordinarily low to me at least.
This is a really interesting topic, all I can do is offer my experience as a Porsche specialist over more than one recession and having seen some bubbles and them popping.
I remember the first recession of my career in the late 80's/ early 90's, not long after it, a 12k Jag turned into a 80k jag, people were selling deposits on new exotic cars for almost as much as the total retail price was. Then interest rates went up BIG time and the classic car market popped and that 80k jag was worth 12k again.
The thing is, I think this current market is very different for a number of reasons. One is that about 50% of my customers selling their cars are not selling to UK buyers, but the cars are being exported.
Australia for one has had a good economy while the rest of the world has been on its uppers, they also have an import regulation that if a car was made before January 1989 you can import a car into Australia for 0% import tax... Australia was not doing as well during the 80's as we were in the UK, they didnt have yuppies buying bright red 3.2 911's with matching braces, so Australians with spare cash, wanting some retro Porsche action have been seeing that a car over there is worth a lot more than a car over here.. and so, many UK Porsche have been vanishing down under for the last few years and supply here is drying up.
I recently had a customer mention in an Ad that we had maintained their 911 for ten years, that one car had people from Japan and Hong Kong calling us as well as Australians. By talking to them they mentioned that retro Porsche models over there have become very fashionable and not easy to find, especially in untouched unmodified condition.
During the recession at a point when the Euro was more equal to the Pound than it is now, a lot of people in Germany and France noticed they could buy left hand drive Porsche models in the UK, much cheaper than they could in their own countries.. So then the previously less desirable Porsche models in the UK become worth more than a right hand one.. I sold an unwanted left hand drive 968 that I had planned on using as a ring tool for £14k, when a right hand drive one was worth £8k and the previous year a left hand drive one was worth £4k to £6k. At the same time, a retro Porsche went from being unfashionable on the continent to being fashionable. Again, all these left hookers are gone for good and not part of the mix.
I think the previous big classic car bubble of the early 90's was because people got into classic cars as an investment at a time when most markets were poor performing and the majority of those cars came back on the market when the bubble popped.. The difference this time is the bubble (if it is one) is international and the UK as a marketplace has a shrinking supply of cars which can come back to the market if the bubble tried to pop.
So I dont think this is the same situation as it was in the early 1990s that is a benchmark for the classic car market booming and busting.. I have no idea what other classic cars have been doing, I have no idea if their values have shot up like the Porsche models, or if their cars have been exported at such a rate. But I do think that for the market to collapse there needs to be a flood of examples hitting the market and I can't see that happening, not with super rare RS models, or even the cheaper classic Porsche models.
The other thing is that the core models (not RS) such as the standard 3.2 911's, did have stagnant values for a long time. I am not talking about just during the recession, but for the best part of 15 years they hovered around the same price of around £12k for a 3.2, which was a bit stupidly cheap.. Then along came a recession that initially had me being offered 3.2's and SC's for £4k as people went into panic, then stabilised back towards their pre recession values.. So a price increase has been long over due.
My father was in the business long before me, I remember him telling me how people were trading their 356's in for 912's and how those 912's were traded in for 914's.. Over the years those unwanted 356's (which at one point were as desirable as a rough 2.5 Boxster is today) overtook the 912, the 914 and then the 911s and will never of course be cheap again. Its why so many were pushed into barns in the 1970's as people refused to sell them for peanuts but at the same time had no use for them.. The market changed and then they became valuable and the world was shocked how often they were found in a redneck barn.
A recession is a good cull.. 3.0SC's and 3.2C's which today would be seen a repairable (mechanically or due to accidents) were scrapped.. 928's which ran and had an MOT were scrapped in the scrappage scheme for a pathetic £2k, I am sure a few 944 turbos went that way, and I heard stories of a handful of air cooled 911's.
A couple of years ago a well known Porsche breaker told me that even though he had an influx of 911 3.2's that had what looked like crashed at low speeds, none of them had good engines, as it seemed ones with a faulty engine were experiencing handbrake failures on steep driveways into gateposts as it was cheaper to get an insurance pay out than fix the engine.
All in all, I think there isnt the potential supply of cars for a full bubble pop, they are gone and going, besides that, even if there is a blip, as soon as a few panic sellers ruin the market for a short time, it will be back up again once the market see's there are not many hitting the market.
All of this is just my opinion of course, everyone has one, I still have a couple of air cooled 911's in my collection, they were not up for sale before the prices went up, and even when they go up some more they are still not for sale and I am sure I am not the only person who feels this way.
On the other hand I have some other Porsche which will be up for sale, nothing to do with a boom/bust or a bubble, as many will remember when I sold that 930 last year that started on ebay for £1, I have known for a long time that I have too many cars and some need to go, I am just not very good at getting around to selling them, but a car or two a year is progress right? Rehab as a petrol head is a slow process.
I remember the first recession of my career in the late 80's/ early 90's, not long after it, a 12k Jag turned into a 80k jag, people were selling deposits on new exotic cars for almost as much as the total retail price was. Then interest rates went up BIG time and the classic car market popped and that 80k jag was worth 12k again.
The thing is, I think this current market is very different for a number of reasons. One is that about 50% of my customers selling their cars are not selling to UK buyers, but the cars are being exported.
Australia for one has had a good economy while the rest of the world has been on its uppers, they also have an import regulation that if a car was made before January 1989 you can import a car into Australia for 0% import tax... Australia was not doing as well during the 80's as we were in the UK, they didnt have yuppies buying bright red 3.2 911's with matching braces, so Australians with spare cash, wanting some retro Porsche action have been seeing that a car over there is worth a lot more than a car over here.. and so, many UK Porsche have been vanishing down under for the last few years and supply here is drying up.
I recently had a customer mention in an Ad that we had maintained their 911 for ten years, that one car had people from Japan and Hong Kong calling us as well as Australians. By talking to them they mentioned that retro Porsche models over there have become very fashionable and not easy to find, especially in untouched unmodified condition.
During the recession at a point when the Euro was more equal to the Pound than it is now, a lot of people in Germany and France noticed they could buy left hand drive Porsche models in the UK, much cheaper than they could in their own countries.. So then the previously less desirable Porsche models in the UK become worth more than a right hand one.. I sold an unwanted left hand drive 968 that I had planned on using as a ring tool for £14k, when a right hand drive one was worth £8k and the previous year a left hand drive one was worth £4k to £6k. At the same time, a retro Porsche went from being unfashionable on the continent to being fashionable. Again, all these left hookers are gone for good and not part of the mix.
I think the previous big classic car bubble of the early 90's was because people got into classic cars as an investment at a time when most markets were poor performing and the majority of those cars came back on the market when the bubble popped.. The difference this time is the bubble (if it is one) is international and the UK as a marketplace has a shrinking supply of cars which can come back to the market if the bubble tried to pop.
So I dont think this is the same situation as it was in the early 1990s that is a benchmark for the classic car market booming and busting.. I have no idea what other classic cars have been doing, I have no idea if their values have shot up like the Porsche models, or if their cars have been exported at such a rate. But I do think that for the market to collapse there needs to be a flood of examples hitting the market and I can't see that happening, not with super rare RS models, or even the cheaper classic Porsche models.
The other thing is that the core models (not RS) such as the standard 3.2 911's, did have stagnant values for a long time. I am not talking about just during the recession, but for the best part of 15 years they hovered around the same price of around £12k for a 3.2, which was a bit stupidly cheap.. Then along came a recession that initially had me being offered 3.2's and SC's for £4k as people went into panic, then stabilised back towards their pre recession values.. So a price increase has been long over due.
My father was in the business long before me, I remember him telling me how people were trading their 356's in for 912's and how those 912's were traded in for 914's.. Over the years those unwanted 356's (which at one point were as desirable as a rough 2.5 Boxster is today) overtook the 912, the 914 and then the 911s and will never of course be cheap again. Its why so many were pushed into barns in the 1970's as people refused to sell them for peanuts but at the same time had no use for them.. The market changed and then they became valuable and the world was shocked how often they were found in a redneck barn.
A recession is a good cull.. 3.0SC's and 3.2C's which today would be seen a repairable (mechanically or due to accidents) were scrapped.. 928's which ran and had an MOT were scrapped in the scrappage scheme for a pathetic £2k, I am sure a few 944 turbos went that way, and I heard stories of a handful of air cooled 911's.
A couple of years ago a well known Porsche breaker told me that even though he had an influx of 911 3.2's that had what looked like crashed at low speeds, none of them had good engines, as it seemed ones with a faulty engine were experiencing handbrake failures on steep driveways into gateposts as it was cheaper to get an insurance pay out than fix the engine.
All in all, I think there isnt the potential supply of cars for a full bubble pop, they are gone and going, besides that, even if there is a blip, as soon as a few panic sellers ruin the market for a short time, it will be back up again once the market see's there are not many hitting the market.
All of this is just my opinion of course, everyone has one, I still have a couple of air cooled 911's in my collection, they were not up for sale before the prices went up, and even when they go up some more they are still not for sale and I am sure I am not the only person who feels this way.
On the other hand I have some other Porsche which will be up for sale, nothing to do with a boom/bust or a bubble, as many will remember when I sold that 930 last year that started on ebay for £1, I have known for a long time that I have too many cars and some need to go, I am just not very good at getting around to selling them, but a car or two a year is progress right? Rehab as a petrol head is a slow process.
SEE YA said:
Wow nice to get the view from a trader. Any update on that 930?
I only sell maybe on car a year, or often one every couple of years and when I do, they are usually just mine. So I do not have a great insight into the used Porsche dealer side of things. But I do find it interesting to watch the market and make longer term predictions which usually seem to come true, which are usually just based on common sense.Not sure what happened to the 930, not heard from the guy since he picked it up, since then it seems to have vanished off the radar for now..
JMG-Porsche said:
SEE YA said:
Wow nice to get the view from a trader. Any update on that 930?
I only sell maybe on car a year, or often one every couple of years and when I do, they are usually just mine. So I do not have a great insight into the used Porsche dealer side of things. But I do find it interesting to watch the market and make longer term predictions which usually seem to come true, which are usually just based on common sense.Not sure what happened to the 930, not heard from the guy since he picked it up, since then it seems to have vanished off the radar for now..
Had it since 07 so had it a while,feel lucky to have had it anyway.
Edited by SEE YA on Wednesday 21st October 11:21
Interesting thread - personally I'm more curious to know where prices will be at in 5-10yrs from now. I would think that at some point environmental issues will tax cars like GT3's to such an extent that it will have a major influence on the price. Perhaps it is not that much of an issue in the UK, but in for example (granted, the small country called..) Belgium everything with a bit of a decent engine has suffered major hits in the past years due to newly introduced CO2 regulations. As from 2016 it will increase once again making cars like the beloved E39 M5 almost unaffordable to get on the road.
Of course, GT3's can always be used for track only and transported on a trailer, and it will take years if not decades for other continents to follow the relatively strict EU push for greener cars.
What do you guys think? Where will we be at in a decade from now?
Of course, GT3's can always be used for track only and transported on a trailer, and it will take years if not decades for other continents to follow the relatively strict EU push for greener cars.
What do you guys think? Where will we be at in a decade from now?
The Wolf said:
Interesting thread - personally I'm more curious to know where prices will be at in 5-10yrs from now. I would think that at some point environmental issues will tax cars like GT3's to such an extent that it will have a major influence on the price. Perhaps it is not that much of an issue in the UK, but in for example (granted, the small country called..) Belgium everything with a bit of a decent engine has suffered major hits in the past years due to newly introduced CO2 regulations. As from 2016 it will increase once again making cars like the beloved E39 M5 almost unaffordable to get on the road.
Of course, GT3's can always be used for track only and transported on a trailer, and it will take years if not decades for other continents to follow the relatively strict EU push for greener cars.
What do you guys think? Where will we be at in a decade from now?
Nobody really knows. If we did, we could invest and make a sOf course, GT3's can always be used for track only and transported on a trailer, and it will take years if not decades for other continents to follow the relatively strict EU push for greener cars.
What do you guys think? Where will we be at in a decade from now?
t load of money.I say enjoy your life now. Make the best decisions you can, yes, but live the best you can!
Belgium is a very different place to the UK.
Even the daftest British government is never allowed to lose sight of the number of jobs the UK car and motorsport industries create. the tax environment might get harsher, but not to the point it is significant for those with pockets deep enough to run these cars for more than 6 months.
(If you wonder the significance of 6 months, see the turbo talking down thread.
)
Even the daftest British government is never allowed to lose sight of the number of jobs the UK car and motorsport industries create. the tax environment might get harsher, but not to the point it is significant for those with pockets deep enough to run these cars for more than 6 months.
(If you wonder the significance of 6 months, see the turbo talking down thread.
)Digga said:
the tax environment might get harsher, but not to the point it is significant for those with pockets deep enough to run these cars for more than 6 months.
It is probably bad to admit this, but I often wish (Normally when sat in traffic each day) that they would increase road tax or fuel tax to get some cars off the road and my pockets are not that deep!As for the oil running out I have quite a few customers in the oil business and have for years had this in the back of my mind so talk to them about it. Usually their response is that as oil prices increase due to scarcity the viability of different sources increases and technological development of alternatives (not just for transport but manufacturing) also increases, so there isnt ever going to be a time when fuel is not available to classics, even if all modern cars are running on other methods.
With this always in the back of my mind, I keep an eye on biofuels and the implications to older vehicles and conversion.
We are all already running on partial biofuels from the pumps, and already there are implications to classic cars seen in the workshop. Some fuel hoses and fuel gaskets/seals are not greatly compatible, but can be solved, however we are also seeing problems with fuel injectors (both electronic and mechanical) that suffer with new fuels, mostly when the car is not used for a period, but by the time we move over to greater concentrations other differences are required, such as ignition timing, compression and fueling, which again can all be implemented to all classic models as the fuel landscape changes.
A good example of all of this is that all my pre 1996/98 chips for Porsche models have continued to evolve as fuels have. Back in the 1990's the removal of lead was a doomsday crisis in the minds of many, although was not really an issue mechanically for Porsche models, but eventually tuning changes overcame performance issues, likewise now they have continued to develop for the changes in pump fuels.
This constant development has resulted in refinement of the Porsche engine management software as well as the mapping that most people think about, that have provided improved fuel economy as well as performance, as Porsche never did have the chance to develop their tune for 30 to 20 years this is the number one reason why a classic fuel injected Porsche of the past can now drive better in many ways (economy, performance, reliability and drivability) than they did when new.
Necessity is the mother of invention.
On another point, it is not that hard to predict what cars will increase in value in the future, what is more difficult is storing them and keeping them up together.
If you want my prediction for a Porsche that will make the biggest multiplier of value over the next ten to twenty years, it would probably be the 924 Turbo, the market never has woken up to the rarity of these cars. When new they were almost as expensive as a 911 SC and for the majority of the last ten years they have been worth next to nothing, so most of them have been scrapped or turned into Carrera GT Replicas.
GT3's will of course be worth a lot more in the future. I remember that fifteen years ago I sold my 993 RS for £50k and thought I had done well... I knew one day it would be worth more, but you do have to live in the moment so I do not regret it.
I also remember in 1995 I very almost bought a 1971 Ferrari Dino for £12k, which back then the Ferrari community, thought of as as a Fiat and "not a Ferrari", not many people would have predicted that it would be worth what it is today. I decided I would rather have £12k less on my mortgage, maybe a mistake... I see this as a little like the 924 Turbo "Not a real Porsche" people used to say until very recently.
A 924 Turbo is never going to be worth as much as a Dino, 911 RS, but for sheer multiplication of your investment it will per a big performer.
Apart from GT3's, GT2's and of course to a lesser extent the Turbos, of the modern Porsche varieties, it is hard to predict what the 996 and 997 models will do in the future, other than S models being worth more than non S models. But what is for sure is that will hit rock bottom, most of them will be culled when the maintenance to value ratio becomes to close and then they will rise again afterwards.. Maybe a little like 911 SC's and 3.2 Carreras of the 80's did over the last 10 years... But then again, maybe they made too many of them or maybe they are not as iconic. However I think what makes a car iconic in the future is dependent on school boy posters of today.
JMG-Porsche said:
It is probably bad to admit this, but I often wish (Normally when sat in traffic each day) that they would increase road tax or fuel tax to get some cars off the road and my pockets are not that deep!
As for the oil running out I have quite a few customers in the oil business and have for years had this in the back of my mind so talk to them about it. Usually their response is that as oil prices increase due to scarcity the viability of different sources increases and technological development of alternatives (not just for transport but manufacturing) also increases, so there isnt ever going to be a time when fuel is not available to classics, even if all modern cars are running on other methods.
With this always in the back of my mind, I keep an eye on biofuels and the implications to older vehicles and conversion.
We are all already running on partial biofuels from the pumps, and already there are implications to classic cars seen in the workshop. Some fuel hoses and fuel gaskets/seals are not greatly compatible, but can be solved, however we are also seeing problems with fuel injectors (both electronic and mechanical) that suffer with new fuels, mostly when the car is not used for a period, but by the time we move over to greater concentrations other differences are required, such as ignition timing, compression and fueling, which again can all be implemented to all classic models as the fuel landscape changes.
A good example of all of this is that all my pre 1996/98 chips for Porsche models have continued to evolve as fuels have. Back in the 1990's the removal of lead was a doomsday crisis in the minds of many, although was not really an issue mechanically for Porsche models, but eventually tuning changes overcame performance issues, likewise now they have continued to develop for the changes in pump fuels.
This constant development has resulted in refinement of the Porsche engine management software as well as the mapping that most people think about, that have provided improved fuel economy as well as performance, as Porsche never did have the chance to develop their tune for 30 to 20 years this is the number one reason why a classic fuel injected Porsche of the past can now drive better in many ways (economy, performance, reliability and drivability) than they did when new.
Necessity is the mother of invention.
On another point, it is not that hard to predict what cars will increase in value in the future, what is more difficult is storing them and keeping them up together.
If you want my prediction for a Porsche that will make the biggest multiplier of value over the next ten to twenty years, it would probably be the 924 Turbo, the market never has woken up to the rarity of these cars. When new they were almost as expensive as a 911 SC and for the majority of the last ten years they have been worth next to nothing, so most of them have been scrapped or turned into Carrera GT Replicas.
GT3's will of course be worth a lot more in the future. I remember that fifteen years ago I sold my 993 RS for £50k and thought I had done well... I knew one day it would be worth more, but you do have to live in the moment so I do not regret it.
I also remember in 1995 I very almost bought a 1971 Ferrari Dino for £12k, which back then the Ferrari community, thought of as as a Fiat and "not a Ferrari", not many people would have predicted that it would be worth what it is today. I decided I would rather have £12k less on my mortgage, maybe a mistake... I see this as a little like the 924 Turbo "Not a real Porsche" people used to say until very recently.
A 924 Turbo is never going to be worth as much as a Dino, 911 RS, but for sheer multiplication of your investment it will per a big performer.
Apart from GT3's, GT2's and of course to a lesser extent the Turbos, of the modern Porsche varieties, it is hard to predict what the 996 and 997 models will do in the future, other than S models being worth more than non S models. But what is for sure is that will hit rock bottom, most of them will be culled when the maintenance to value ratio becomes to close and then they will rise again afterwards.. Maybe a little like 911 SC's and 3.2 Carreras of the 80's did over the last 10 years... But then again, maybe they made too many of them or maybe they are not as iconic. However I think what makes a car iconic in the future is dependent on school boy posters of today.
Interesting , well written post - thanks As for the oil running out I have quite a few customers in the oil business and have for years had this in the back of my mind so talk to them about it. Usually their response is that as oil prices increase due to scarcity the viability of different sources increases and technological development of alternatives (not just for transport but manufacturing) also increases, so there isnt ever going to be a time when fuel is not available to classics, even if all modern cars are running on other methods.
With this always in the back of my mind, I keep an eye on biofuels and the implications to older vehicles and conversion.
We are all already running on partial biofuels from the pumps, and already there are implications to classic cars seen in the workshop. Some fuel hoses and fuel gaskets/seals are not greatly compatible, but can be solved, however we are also seeing problems with fuel injectors (both electronic and mechanical) that suffer with new fuels, mostly when the car is not used for a period, but by the time we move over to greater concentrations other differences are required, such as ignition timing, compression and fueling, which again can all be implemented to all classic models as the fuel landscape changes.
A good example of all of this is that all my pre 1996/98 chips for Porsche models have continued to evolve as fuels have. Back in the 1990's the removal of lead was a doomsday crisis in the minds of many, although was not really an issue mechanically for Porsche models, but eventually tuning changes overcame performance issues, likewise now they have continued to develop for the changes in pump fuels.
This constant development has resulted in refinement of the Porsche engine management software as well as the mapping that most people think about, that have provided improved fuel economy as well as performance, as Porsche never did have the chance to develop their tune for 30 to 20 years this is the number one reason why a classic fuel injected Porsche of the past can now drive better in many ways (economy, performance, reliability and drivability) than they did when new.
Necessity is the mother of invention.
On another point, it is not that hard to predict what cars will increase in value in the future, what is more difficult is storing them and keeping them up together.
If you want my prediction for a Porsche that will make the biggest multiplier of value over the next ten to twenty years, it would probably be the 924 Turbo, the market never has woken up to the rarity of these cars. When new they were almost as expensive as a 911 SC and for the majority of the last ten years they have been worth next to nothing, so most of them have been scrapped or turned into Carrera GT Replicas.
GT3's will of course be worth a lot more in the future. I remember that fifteen years ago I sold my 993 RS for £50k and thought I had done well... I knew one day it would be worth more, but you do have to live in the moment so I do not regret it.
I also remember in 1995 I very almost bought a 1971 Ferrari Dino for £12k, which back then the Ferrari community, thought of as as a Fiat and "not a Ferrari", not many people would have predicted that it would be worth what it is today. I decided I would rather have £12k less on my mortgage, maybe a mistake... I see this as a little like the 924 Turbo "Not a real Porsche" people used to say until very recently.
A 924 Turbo is never going to be worth as much as a Dino, 911 RS, but for sheer multiplication of your investment it will per a big performer.
Apart from GT3's, GT2's and of course to a lesser extent the Turbos, of the modern Porsche varieties, it is hard to predict what the 996 and 997 models will do in the future, other than S models being worth more than non S models. But what is for sure is that will hit rock bottom, most of them will be culled when the maintenance to value ratio becomes to close and then they will rise again afterwards.. Maybe a little like 911 SC's and 3.2 Carreras of the 80's did over the last 10 years... But then again, maybe they made too many of them or maybe they are not as iconic. However I think what makes a car iconic in the future is dependent on school boy posters of today.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Absolutely.I became a bit of an evangelist on biofuels about fifteen years ago, boring many customers and friends in the process, I keep my mouth shut mostly about it these days because I noticed peoples eyes were glazing over whenever I started talking about it and I found out it had become a running joke ("Don't talk to Jon about fuels" was overheard a few times)
Land rich, cash poor nations like many in Africa could actually become instrumental in the future of transport due to biofuels, which are effectively solar energy in its cleanest most natural state, as well as being carbon neutral (the only carbon released is what as been absorbed from the air during growth of the source.. crops as a rule)
The wonderful thing is that oil producing crops can be pressed to release oil which can be converted into Biodiesel (for trains, heavy transport and even aircraft), the crushed crop byproduct can then be fermented to produce ethanol (which todays petrol cars can be converted to run and even produce more power) then finally the mash (byproduct after fermentation) can be used as animal feed along with the unused straw) which when used in conjunction with crop rotation will keep the land fertilized for the fuel crops.
Essentially the cars using these fuels, including the classics, will be carbon neutral and effectively solar powered.. The nice side effect is today or yesterdays Porsche converted to these fuels will be more powerful than on fossil fuels.
There is even an argument for the case of the world moving over to biofuel could be beneficial to the environment, by increasing the land area used for crop growth reducing global warming. Land and crop values would also increase to the point of previously nonviable as farm land areas become viable (such as savanna or arid areas).. Corporations could also lower their carbon footprint and possible future tax liabilities by investing/subsidizing the farmers/land owners, due carbon negative nature of the crops which again helps with viability.
So the end is certainly not near for the petrol cars of yesterday, the cars of tomorrow might be mostly electric, but as long as many sources of electricity are environmentally dirty and inefficient, bio fuels make more sense and therefore hybrid cars (especially ones which boost efficiency with regenerative braking etc) are the real near future.
The real threat to classic cars maybe the networked future of driverless cars, automatic braking etc which may communicate among themselves (as per the Prometheus project of the 1990's) and the safety concerns of a classic car being "off grid" on the same roads.. But I think the aftermarket will jump into that space, or provision with simple transponders to warn other cars of their location and telemetry will be essential in the crossover period anyway.
Or maybe I am just really biased as I cant seem to get excited by entirely electric cars silently wafting around the roads and tracks and am talking myself into alternative viable futures?
However at the moment I do not believe that plugging a car into a UK charging point, powered by powerstations running on mostly fossil fuels, but also rubbish and used car tyres is really the clean fuel source we are sold the idea as.
Beyond anything else, the rules of thermodynamics dictate that every time energy is converted it is wasteful, therefore, how can burning oil (inefficiently without catalytic converters), to generate steam, to turn turbines, to generate electricity, which will then be transported in lossy cables, converted into several different voltages, used to charge batteries in a car and finally turned into rotational power, more efficient than fossil fuels (let alone biofuels) being put into the car and being converted into thermal energy (and cleaned with catalytic converters) and then rotational energy?!?!?
All off topic, but all very interesting and worth discussing, especially as the governments of the world do not seem to see it.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Interesting point re synthesising fuel. A number of technologies out there but ridiculously inefficient at present. One TED talk I saw estimated half world's total energy production to meet a year's worth of current US fuel needs. No idea if that is correct but gives scale of challenge.anonymous said:
[redacted]
I think I did a poor job of writing that part with the catalytic converters and power stations. My point was one of emissions with the mention of catalytic converters and the way the public have an image fed to them that electric powered cars are "clean, green and efficient" with very few people paying attention to how that electricity gets to the power socket in terms of emissions and efficiency.It would be really interesting to see a comparison of carbon emissions of generating a 1000 miles worth of electricity (including its losses of transport) versus the carbon emissions of the same 1000 miles worth of petroleum emissions (including its losses of transport). There really are a lot of losses in the many stages between fossil fuels rotational force at the electric motor until super conductors become a reality, those losses could result in higher emissions than might be expected.
For efficiency the public's opinion is generally based on costs to their pocket (remembering the difference between taxation of road fuel at the pump compared with utility electricity at the power-point) which is often overlooked.
And you are absolutely right about catalytic converters doing nothing for efficiency, nor do o2 sensors, both of those are for emissions alone. Not many people know that there is a big difference between an efficient versus emissions/catalytic converter friendly air fuel ratio with modern cars tuned for emissions rather than efficiency.
I think my big point is, electricity might be physically clean to the consumer, it does not smell, it causes no emissions from a tail pipe they can see, it is not something they associate with being a fossil fuel, but until the UK has all renewable or nuclear powerstations, in the automotive context, it is much more dirty from an environment position than it is thought of as.
Beyond that, I also think the consumers think of electric cars are being more efficient than they really are. I would even take it as far as saying that there is a good chance that they are not as efficient as a conventionally fueled car.
There are motives in what we are sold, that have nothing to do with the environment or fossil fuels, because if the governments of the world did have the environment as their number one agenda, they would be pushing for biofuels (recyled zero carbon footprint) rather than tailpipe emissions (setting targets instead for efficiency tuned cars), and pushing for electric cars and greener power stations in the same breath.
Just all food for thought, you probably all think I am a conspiracy theorist now! lol
Billsnemesis said:
But does that include construction CO2? The batteries in EV's involve a lot of very heavy metals, expensive processing and lots of miles done between mine and car.
Indeed. The production of modern batteries is from what I have read, intensive and heavy on the earths natural resources.Thats before we think about end of life.
This is certainly one of the more interesting threads on pistonheads for a while, we have gone from if there is a classic price bubble and if so it it will pop or to what magnitude, then moving into the future of classic cars, their fuel with the comparison to current/future technologies.
There is such a push on electric cars at the moment by manufacturers and governments that I am not sure we have the whole picture on the environmental impact, which as some have mentioned, includes the end of life impact of batteries, but also needs to include how the efficiency of electric cars, or more so their batteries, over time, will reduce in efficiency.
At the moment a conventional fuel vehicle is tested yearly to ensure its powerplant is maintaining a standard of emissions via emissions testing, however with electric vehicles there should also be a test of how well its batteries are maintaining a good standard of accepting a charge, storing a charge and the electric motors efficiency to turn that energy into torque.
I also suspect that electric vehicles, due to the cost of batteries, will have a shorter potential lifespan, as the ratio of the cost to replace the batteries versus the value of the car as that value depreciates .
Unfortunately I have no idea about this last point, someone who is a specialist in maintenance of models with hybrid or fully electric drive might be able to give an accurate average of battery lifespan and cost to replace, not to mention how different duty cycles effect battery lifespan.
It could be that in the future a high annual mileage car, where the batteries are charged often, may be worth more than a low mileage car which has sat for long periods without a charge, which is the opposite to the buying public opinion of a used fossil fuel car today. But as I said, I have no idea what duty cycles will effect the current and future batteries.. But it is an interesting thought anyway.
There are a lot of variables with battery based cars which I have no idea about at all, but in the back of my mind the laws of thermodynamics are ringing bells that the less times you convert energy from one form to another, including from one voltage to another during transit, the more efficient it is.
Everyone has stood near a substation and heard it buzz, if you get closer you can feel heat and I have never known of a battery, from a mobile phone battery, to a lead acid car battery that does not emit heat as it is charged, or an electric motor which develops heat as it is used, all of these are the waste byproducts of converting energy from one form to another, and as these items age, they do become less efficient, producing more waste byproducts (heat, noise, vibration, light) which reduces their efficiency..
The same is indeed true of a conventionally fueled car, an engine obviously generates waste heat and makes noise as well as the desired rotational power, but likewise so do power stations running on fossil fuels, otherwise they would not need cooling towers.
However 100% biofuel is 100% CO clean no matter how poorly tuned the engine is, as 100% of the CO it produces is CO that was taken from the atmosphere in the first place, so could be counted as zero grams of co emissions per 1000 miles.. That is an act that an electric car can not follow until we have 100% nuclear, solar, wind or wave powered national grids and that is something the public should be aware of.
How many people in the general public seeing a Ford Capri 2.8 bimbling down the road running on 100% biofuel, or a 1995 transit running on vegitable oil, would realise it is better for the environment in co emissions and the owner doing their part for the environment reducing manufacturing and end of life implications than the very latest fully electric offering from one of the big car names?
But we can't get 100% ethanol and 100% biodiesel, produced with 100% clean energy (electricity used in the process of making the fuels) at the pumps at the moment, because it is cheaper to pump crude oil out of the ground.
I think once that changes the natural shift in wealth will move from the middle east to countries which are land rich.. But that is not in the interests of oil companies, which is why I think we are all being led down the garden path that electric cars are the future and are cleaner... I would not mind betting if a lot of oil companies in recent years have been getting into the energy generation business, or preparing to.
Back to the original point though, classic cars are not going to become unusable in the future because of crude oil running out, we do not need to rely on synthetic fuel manufactured by chemists when this happens, a little work and all the classic cars can run on biofuels which can be made cleanly and without massive refineries. As long as there is a demand, someone will step up to fill that demand.
There is such a push on electric cars at the moment by manufacturers and governments that I am not sure we have the whole picture on the environmental impact, which as some have mentioned, includes the end of life impact of batteries, but also needs to include how the efficiency of electric cars, or more so their batteries, over time, will reduce in efficiency.
At the moment a conventional fuel vehicle is tested yearly to ensure its powerplant is maintaining a standard of emissions via emissions testing, however with electric vehicles there should also be a test of how well its batteries are maintaining a good standard of accepting a charge, storing a charge and the electric motors efficiency to turn that energy into torque.
I also suspect that electric vehicles, due to the cost of batteries, will have a shorter potential lifespan, as the ratio of the cost to replace the batteries versus the value of the car as that value depreciates .
Unfortunately I have no idea about this last point, someone who is a specialist in maintenance of models with hybrid or fully electric drive might be able to give an accurate average of battery lifespan and cost to replace, not to mention how different duty cycles effect battery lifespan.
It could be that in the future a high annual mileage car, where the batteries are charged often, may be worth more than a low mileage car which has sat for long periods without a charge, which is the opposite to the buying public opinion of a used fossil fuel car today. But as I said, I have no idea what duty cycles will effect the current and future batteries.. But it is an interesting thought anyway.
There are a lot of variables with battery based cars which I have no idea about at all, but in the back of my mind the laws of thermodynamics are ringing bells that the less times you convert energy from one form to another, including from one voltage to another during transit, the more efficient it is.
Everyone has stood near a substation and heard it buzz, if you get closer you can feel heat and I have never known of a battery, from a mobile phone battery, to a lead acid car battery that does not emit heat as it is charged, or an electric motor which develops heat as it is used, all of these are the waste byproducts of converting energy from one form to another, and as these items age, they do become less efficient, producing more waste byproducts (heat, noise, vibration, light) which reduces their efficiency..
The same is indeed true of a conventionally fueled car, an engine obviously generates waste heat and makes noise as well as the desired rotational power, but likewise so do power stations running on fossil fuels, otherwise they would not need cooling towers.
However 100% biofuel is 100% CO clean no matter how poorly tuned the engine is, as 100% of the CO it produces is CO that was taken from the atmosphere in the first place, so could be counted as zero grams of co emissions per 1000 miles.. That is an act that an electric car can not follow until we have 100% nuclear, solar, wind or wave powered national grids and that is something the public should be aware of.
How many people in the general public seeing a Ford Capri 2.8 bimbling down the road running on 100% biofuel, or a 1995 transit running on vegitable oil, would realise it is better for the environment in co emissions and the owner doing their part for the environment reducing manufacturing and end of life implications than the very latest fully electric offering from one of the big car names?
But we can't get 100% ethanol and 100% biodiesel, produced with 100% clean energy (electricity used in the process of making the fuels) at the pumps at the moment, because it is cheaper to pump crude oil out of the ground.
I think once that changes the natural shift in wealth will move from the middle east to countries which are land rich.. But that is not in the interests of oil companies, which is why I think we are all being led down the garden path that electric cars are the future and are cleaner... I would not mind betting if a lot of oil companies in recent years have been getting into the energy generation business, or preparing to.
Back to the original point though, classic cars are not going to become unusable in the future because of crude oil running out, we do not need to rely on synthetic fuel manufactured by chemists when this happens, a little work and all the classic cars can run on biofuels which can be made cleanly and without massive refineries. As long as there is a demand, someone will step up to fill that demand.
Gassing Station | Porsche General | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff