Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
jimmyslr said:
I do get this and was/am one of those guys. The issue to me is that the downside of a major prang on track is substantial in terms of long terms cost of ownership. Here's an example...
- if you destroy the £1,500 BMW in your example you are down £1,500 and take it to the scrap yard
- if you bend your GT3RS and you're insured, the insurance fixes it. But when you try to sell it you will get hammered (and hardly anyone honestly keeps these cars forever so resale does matter) as the market hates a repaired car. All of a sudden, instead of the £150k you thought you'd get for it that number is £100k (made up for the sake of the point, but it's a huge delta) so your loss is £50k
For some of the very rich a £50k loss is OK, but even the very rich got rich by making some judgements. To me and I suspect many others judging by the cars on track days that's a big factor.
Unfortunately this is true and it is why I stopped tracking my 993RS. I bought it for £38k and did 30k miles around UK and Europe including Ring, Spa and most UK tracks. Suddenly its worth a hell of a lot more and I got nervous. So I sold it!- if you destroy the £1,500 BMW in your example you are down £1,500 and take it to the scrap yard
- if you bend your GT3RS and you're insured, the insurance fixes it. But when you try to sell it you will get hammered (and hardly anyone honestly keeps these cars forever so resale does matter) as the market hates a repaired car. All of a sudden, instead of the £150k you thought you'd get for it that number is £100k (made up for the sake of the point, but it's a huge delta) so your loss is £50k
For some of the very rich a £50k loss is OK, but even the very rich got rich by making some judgements. To me and I suspect many others judging by the cars on track days that's a big factor.
Having done three 24 hours in a Porsche GT2R , I understand as each was marked with at least 1 accident ( yes it happens racing at night in the rain ) never with any insurance ....... it costs
Yes the rich turn up in a Challenge or a Cup car run by a team even at track days ..... but they come to the circuit in a Helicopter or a Bently ...
As Jimmy did the drive to circuit GT3 , RS days are over as the are investments to most and a fair bit of money for most . This is why number plates are covered now , as when being sold they buyer wants a non -tracked car with no stone chips to store away .....
The web is very alert to any "mishaps" so not the cost of an off but the effect on re-sale ........ hence gone from track..
Porche GT cars now are like Bitcoins
Yes the rich turn up in a Challenge or a Cup car run by a team even at track days ..... but they come to the circuit in a Helicopter or a Bently ...
As Jimmy did the drive to circuit GT3 , RS days are over as the are investments to most and a fair bit of money for most . This is why number plates are covered now , as when being sold they buyer wants a non -tracked car with no stone chips to store away .....
The web is very alert to any "mishaps" so not the cost of an off but the effect on re-sale ........ hence gone from track..
Porche GT cars now are like Bitcoins
Wozy68 said:
Mario149 said:
I'd argue that if you own a GT3 of any description that you only drive on the road and don't take on track at least occasionally you've not been cost effective with your money
Unless you whip the ass off it around somewhere like the Pyrenees instead. Now a GT3 would be the weapon of choice there for me
The one caveat being when it's wet (ironically when most don't want to drive it): most fun I ever had in the car was in the wet at TSE this year where most of Sat afternoon was spent going sideways at half the speed of when it was dry. Much more playful with the added bonus of knowing it's hardly stressing the car at all. And driving in the wet on the road was most fun off track as well.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not having a massive dig at the GT3 or anything, it's just that by it's nature the road is not where it shines.
roygarth said:
jimmyslr said:
I do get this and was/am one of those guys. The issue to me is that the downside of a major prang on track is substantial in terms of long terms cost of ownership. Here's an example...
- if you destroy the £1,500 BMW in your example you are down £1,500 and take it to the scrap yard
- if you bend your GT3RS and you're insured, the insurance fixes it. But when you try to sell it you will get hammered (and hardly anyone honestly keeps these cars forever so resale does matter) as the market hates a repaired car. All of a sudden, instead of the £150k you thought you'd get for it that number is £100k (made up for the sake of the point, but it's a huge delta) so your loss is £50k
For some of the very rich a £50k loss is OK, but even the very rich got rich by making some judgements. To me and I suspect many others judging by the cars on track days that's a big factor.
Unfortunately this is true and it is why I stopped tracking my 993RS. I bought it for £38k and did 30k miles around UK and Europe including Ring, Spa and most UK tracks. Suddenly its worth a hell of a lot more and I got nervous. So I sold it!- if you destroy the £1,500 BMW in your example you are down £1,500 and take it to the scrap yard
- if you bend your GT3RS and you're insured, the insurance fixes it. But when you try to sell it you will get hammered (and hardly anyone honestly keeps these cars forever so resale does matter) as the market hates a repaired car. All of a sudden, instead of the £150k you thought you'd get for it that number is £100k (made up for the sake of the point, but it's a huge delta) so your loss is £50k
For some of the very rich a £50k loss is OK, but even the very rich got rich by making some judgements. To me and I suspect many others judging by the cars on track days that's a big factor.
I had a 964 RS that I bought for £30k back in the day and it was great on track and the downside was limited. Absolute worst case was an insurance write-off or major prang and you'd still be selling for parts. There was no inbuilt super premium within its market value, above the sum of the parts, that was vulnerable to the whims of the market.
I then had a 993 RS Clubbie and I owned that through the start of the bubble. I bought that as a track weapon and even raced it, so I deliberately bought low (high miles, seen some "action") and sold low - still almost doubled the value and I'd also pranged it in a race in the meantime. Towards the end of its time with me it was starting to be too nice/valuable to track.
A shame in many ways, but railing against the market doesn't tend to achieve much! My advice for a cheap(er) track choice is to get a Caterham or a 996 Cup car. The latter was an awesome car and feels like a GT3 on steroids. Granted you have to trailer it but much cheaper to buy, people expect them to have track damage over time and costs to run are same as a road GT3. This is the 996 though, not the more whizzy 997 Cup with the expensive gearbox.
All that being said, I'm back in the market for a 997 GT3. I will do the odd track day in it, but won't go banzai
roygarth said:
Unfortunately this is true and it is why I stopped tracking my 993RS. I bought it for £38k and did 30k miles around UK and Europe including Ring, Spa and most UK tracks. Suddenly its worth a hell of a lot more and I got nervous. So I sold it!
I just don't understand this.You were in the pound seats, the car was never going to be worth less than you paid for it, so whats the problem?
So its worth 100k instead of 150k? Big deal!
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Agree with a lot of that. 997 GT3 does feel special at road speeds, more so than mainstream models, but it's true special-ness can't be sampled on the road IMO. My feeling is that if you're buying it as a pure road car, the increase in price over a mainstream model isn't matched by the increase in enjoyment just on the roadmollytherocker said:
roygarth said:
Unfortunately this is true and it is why I stopped tracking my 993RS. I bought it for £38k and did 30k miles around UK and Europe including Ring, Spa and most UK tracks. Suddenly its worth a hell of a lot more and I got nervous. So I sold it!
I just don't understand this.You were in the pound seats, the car was never going to be worth less than you paid for it, so whats the problem?
So its worth 100k instead of 150k? Big deal!
There's also a psychological issue of just not feeling the same joy in throwing £150k around a race track vs £30k; the downisde thing on the market value. Once I had my '3RS rebuilt, painted and generally immaculate I found that I was too concerned about it to use it "hard" and I lost some of the joy. I went to tracking my Cup car or my Caterham and had no qualms over beasting those. In fact I was racing those mostly. After doing the race thing I enjoyed pushing hard and that meant being closer to the edge and, again, that didn't feel good in the RS. Might only be me, but attendance at track and race days would suggest not.
Continuing my logic, I bought a Megane R26.R for partly this reason (and partly I like all cars that do "their thing" well). It can do Sunday blast, serves as a second car if needed and can also lap a track respectably. But, in value terms, it's not huge (all relative I know) and there isn't a huge premium built in that I risk damaging.
jackwood said:
Because some people just like to own nice things, would be my guess.
I love having my GT3 in the garage, even though I hardly drive it any more.It's like having any collection of anything! Be it candles, old coins, dolls, or cars!
I can sympathise with all of this.I love having my GT3 in the garage, even though I hardly drive it any more.It's like having any collection of anything! Be it candles, old coins, dolls, or cars!
It is knowing the car is there, ready and waiting on 'that' perfect day, when it comes along (however rare) that is worth a lot, to me.
It is wandering into the garage to do something else - putting shopping in the freezer, or returning late at night from a mountain bike ride/visit to the pub - and being stopped in you tracks by the sight of the thing.
Digga said:
can sympathise with all of this.
It is knowing the car is there, ready and waiting on 'that' perfect day, when it comes along (however rare) that is worth a lot, to me.
It is wandering into the garage to do something else - putting shopping in the freezer, or returning late at night from a mountain bike ride/visit to the pub - and being stopped in you tracks by the sight of the thing.
Damm you, now i'm really missing my GT3. It is knowing the car is there, ready and waiting on 'that' perfect day, when it comes along (however rare) that is worth a lot, to me.
It is wandering into the garage to do something else - putting shopping in the freezer, or returning late at night from a mountain bike ride/visit to the pub - and being stopped in you tracks by the sight of the thing.
Budflicker said:
Digga said:
can sympathise with all of this.
It is knowing the car is there, ready and waiting on 'that' perfect day, when it comes along (however rare) that is worth a lot, to me.
It is wandering into the garage to do something else - putting shopping in the freezer, or returning late at night from a mountain bike ride/visit to the pub - and being stopped in you tracks by the sight of the thing.
Damm you, now i'm really missing my GT3. It is knowing the car is there, ready and waiting on 'that' perfect day, when it comes along (however rare) that is worth a lot, to me.
It is wandering into the garage to do something else - putting shopping in the freezer, or returning late at night from a mountain bike ride/visit to the pub - and being stopped in you tracks by the sight of the thing.
Bieldside said:
Interesting that several of the Porsche cars at the recent Silverstone auction failed to sell at the reserve prices set on them
Maybe a bit of sanity is coming back
I agree as stated.Maybe a bit of sanity is coming back
67% of lots sold.
Achieved prices skewed to the minimum end of the estimate (even when using the figues stated on the website which include the buyers premium).
With 58 Porsches in one auction this is a great bellwether of where prices are.
Those with vested interests may try and talk it down but ultimately this points to a slowing market.
https://www.silverstoneauctions.com/the-porsche-sa...
jimmyslr said:
My advice for a cheap(er) track choice is to get a Caterham....The latter was an awesome car and feels like a GT3 on steroids.
That's exactly what I did - sold my GT3 and bought a 620R. Cheaper to buy, cheaper to run and fulfills my needs for track days and the odd weekend hoon much better. GT3 is great, and if I had money to keep a mega collection I'd have kept it no question, but for track and occasional use, there were better options for me.I absolutely love Caterhams, started racing in them. Have a very soft spot. they make a very strong argument for a track car. Fantastic pace for bucks argument and I'd take one over a Radical any day. But for me, there is nothing like driving a big GT car. A very different experience and I prefer the challenge and the GT3 is (again for me) the best of its breed in this arena. It's a shame that most sit around in heated garages in the hands of compulsive retailers.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
All the figures you have quoted include fees. They publish the price including fees as it looks better against the estimate shown."Estimates are meaningless" Did you really write that! These estimates are a guide to where the auction experts think the market is. In reality, most people on this thread agree that the estimates were set to high. I.e. the market is calibrating to a lower level.
Remember also that this was a very well advertised and attended event.
I agree that some prices are still 'bubbly' but there were clear cracks on the day. This is no longer a one way bet.
Estimates aren't just about showing the auctioneer was right. They are about getting the right people to come along, setting their expectations and then getting as much money out of them as possible.
Low estimates might draw some people in. High estimates might encourage others to bid while the bidding is low. When two similar cars appear in a sale, do they go sequentially, at opposite ends of the day? Do you set the estimate higher on the first or the second?
The start, reserve and hammer price are all just as important in achieving a sale, and the hammer price versus estimate alone isn't an accurate gauge of the market.
I think there's much more to it than just guessing the sale price.
Low estimates might draw some people in. High estimates might encourage others to bid while the bidding is low. When two similar cars appear in a sale, do they go sequentially, at opposite ends of the day? Do you set the estimate higher on the first or the second?
The start, reserve and hammer price are all just as important in achieving a sale, and the hammer price versus estimate alone isn't an accurate gauge of the market.
I think there's much more to it than just guessing the sale price.
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