Is the bubble about to burst?

[GT4RS]

pete a said:

GT4RS said:

Peter I think you have asked me a similar question before?

As the market for these cars appears to be some what over inflated I'm happy to wait and watch from the side lines. The car will be bought as a third car so there is no real rush. What I wouldn't want to do is buy one for 135k and find out 3 months later they were being advertised below list.

I guess you are an owner of a 991 gt3 and are concerned about future values as you seem to be quite keen to question some of my posts?

I would like to point out I'm not here to upset any 991 gt3 owner, this is a forum and the threads I have joined are about values and up until now my posts are in line with how the market is performing.

Hi, I'm sorry I don't know what your name is, in answer to your question in answer to mine is, no I don't own a 991 GT3, I think it looks great and drives great by the sound of things (well that's what Sidicks said ) but I can't afford one even if they are at list, well unless I take out a big lump of finance which I'm not prepared to do, how's that for honesty.

I only asked the question of you as you clearly want one but at the right price, nothing wrong with that at all, I was just curios to see where that price point is for you???

Will you answer with an answer though???

I guess the answer to your question is once the market cools down. At what that price point is I have no idea ATM.

Another concern of mine are these rumours we are hearing about further engine failures. I have my doubts these rumours are actually true. I guess only time and miles under there belt will tell.

[Crimp]

sng45 said:

YoungMD said:

So if a 3.2 is now worth £40k that means it's doubled is value over the last 2 maybe 3 years?
In pure economical terms that is a massive value increase, that can only be driven by supply reducing or demand increasing, has supply reduced? a little bit but not much, has demand increased, hell yes, but has genuine demand increased, do double the people now suddenly love and want a 3.2, compared to the 10 years prior? And that's my problem, genuine sustainable demand has not really increased, using houses as a comparison the answer is different of course, but 911 demand will reset more in line with history and thus prices will correct

I would suggest that demand for 3.2's ( and probably SC's ) has increased as a default position - previously ( 5-6 years ago ) people myself included would have (probably) bought a pre-impact 911 i.e S / E / T however the price of those cars has risen to such a degree that the next position on the ladder is a 3.2 so perhaps double the people do suddenly want a 3.2 or an SC , maybe not as a first choice but as an aircooled 911 default choice !

To use your house comparison, if people can't afford a four bedroomed house I guess they buy a three bedroomed one. There's an unlimited number of those around but the same can't be said of air cooled 911's !

I've owned around twenty three aircooled 911's ( and quite a few water cooled ones ) and the 911 I enjoy the most as a useable, driveable, enjoyable car is my 3.2 ( thanks Crimp !)

Your welcome Steve hope you're well matey

[pete a]

GT4RS said:

I guess the answer to your question is once the market cools down. At what that price point is I have no idea ATM.

Another concern of mine are these rumours we are hearing about further engine failures. I have my doubts these rumours are actually true. I guess only time and miles under there belt will tell.

Fair do's, when you get one will you stop posting about prices dropping and go get a room with Sidicks for a 991 loveathon.

[YoungMD]

sng45 said:

I would suggest that demand for 3.2's ( and probably SC's ) has increased as a default position - previously ( 5-6 years ago ) people myself included would have (probably) bought a pre-impact 911 i.e S / E / T however the price of those cars has risen to such a degree that the next position on the ladder is a 3.2 so perhaps double the people do suddenly want a 3.2 or an SC , maybe not as a first choice but as an aircooled 911 default choice !

To use your house comparison, if people can't afford a four bedroomed house I guess they buy a three bedroomed one. There's an unlimited number of those around but the same can't be said of air cooled 911's !

I've owned around twenty three aircooled 911's ( and quite a few water cooled ones ) and the 911 I enjoy the most as a useable, driveable, enjoyable car is my 3.2 ( thanks Crimp !)

I agree with the 3.2, had one for years at the end of the 90's and it's a great daily drive, cost me very little BUT don't agree on the demand moving, old t,e, and s have always been 'out of reach for the 'normal' enthusiast, I remember when I bought my 3.2 I would have loved a older one but they were big money then, in fact if you look at their value increase it has gone up a lot more steadily and there are considerably less around and many more rusted away, compare to the rise of the later air cooled stuff and the bubble is reasonable obvious

[NJH]

Funny thing that, I can remember when the fabled 2.4S had the same price in the market as a 968 or 964. It wasn't that long ago either and they were not really that sort after back then at all, ISTR it was about 10 years ago when the really old stuff started becoming "fashionable", every year on year since has just seen more craziness.

[Wozy68]

YoungMD said:

I agree with the 3.2, had one for years at the end of the 90's and it's a great daily drive, cost me very little BUT don't agree on the demand moving, old t,e, and s have always been 'out of reach for the 'normal' enthusiast, I remember when I bought my 3.2 I would have loved a older one but they were big money then, in fact if you look at their value increase it has gone up a lot more steadily and there are considerably less around and many more rusted away, compare to the rise of the later air cooled stuff and the bubble is reasonable obvious

2005, 1972 'E' in red. Original matching car and engine, drivable but in need of some big (but no way terminal) TLC.

£15K....... I bought a 964 instead for £13K because I was worried it wasn't worth the hassle. Doh.

[YoungMD]

Wozy68 said:

YoungMD said:

I agree with the 3.2, had one for years at the end of the 90's and it's a great daily drive, cost me very little BUT don't agree on the demand moving, old t,e, and s have always been 'out of reach for the 'normal' enthusiast, I remember when I bought my 3.2 I would have loved a older one but they were big money then, in fact if you look at their value increase it has gone up a lot more steadily and there are considerably less around and many more rusted away, compare to the rise of the later air cooled stuff and the bubble is reasonable obvious

2005, 1972 'E' in red. Original matching car and engine, drivable but in need of some big (but no way terminal) TLC.

£15K....... I bought a 964 instead for £13K because I was worried it wasn't worth the hassle. Doh.

In 2005 was a 1972 E in very good condition always worth north of £20k, over the years what have you been able to get a very good 964 for, considerably less I would say.

The point is older crome bumper 911's have been fetching good money for a long time, how many 964's sold for more than £20k two years ago, or maybe even one year ago the rise is very quick and very recent....

[NJH]

Sorry no they haven't. When I got into Porsche about 15 years ago pre 74 cars apart from the S where in the bottom of the market along with cars like the 924S. I found an old Classic & Sports Car in our house move that had a comparison between a T I think it was, 924 and MGB under the line that you could buy all these mint for a few grand. Nobody wanted them as back then everyone and I mean everyone believed newer was better, up to the 993 they had a point as one could easily believe that but what came after that period cars from all makes definitely lost something.

[cseven]

just had a look at the 964 prices and if anyone feels this isn't a bubble there is your proof right there! 50k for a 120k miler c2 that needs some work, it actually made me laugh out loud!

The whole classic car market is nuts at the moment whether its e30 m3's, any air cooled porker, Jag e type etc etc etc. I think we are at the top the only way is down...I guess we will find out next spring (maybe there will be one more year left in this?)

[PorscheGT4]

not burst, just a correction, the 997 GT3 market is daft, never seen so many cars for sale, and non selling.

Roll on interest rate rises. these cars are £65k cars max the markets flooded with people who want to cash in now. don't blame them it's free money.

I think we need to see 5% base rate interest asap imo 0.5 is killing the housing market (some might say bigger rates will kill the house market, but they are over priced, it's already dead ! ) To many people renting now and too many rich people own 3+ houses, this needs to stop !! no tax is paid as there are so many loop holes in this area also.

Houses are out of control, cars are also , all due to low interest rates !!!

House market needs to fall 25% imo and the only way to do that is put up rates and make it harder to buy 3rd homes esp for non nationals.

Edited by PorscheGT4 on Monday 10th August 11:25

[PPPPPP]

PorscheGT4 said:

I think we need to see 5% base rate interest asap imo.

Houses are out of control, cars are also.

Not going to happen for a long while, the patient is in a fragile condition. Cars is small potatoes, and a housing price collapse will destroy confidence in the economy.

US will start with their baby step later this year - but only a quarter percent.

[PorscheGT4]

The Banks don't know what to do, the issue is low rates have NOT helped any one long term.

[isaldiri]

pete a said:

Fair do's, when you get one will you stop posting about prices dropping and go get a room with Sidicks for a 991 loveathon.

No he'll probably just start banging on in the opposite direction about how undervalued they are then......

[porkey]

12 years ago I bought my 964T for £25k.
I think it probably dipped as low as £18 or £19k over the next few years.
I've no idea what it's theoretically worth now, but more than I paid for it I'd guess.
I can't say it really bothers me that much as I have no intention of selling it and I've no idea what I'd replace it with either.
It's just money and we're only here for short time.
Worrying about potential losses on cars seems a bit tragic really. IMO

[PPPPPP]

PorscheGT4 said:

The Banks don't know what to do, the issue is low rates have NOT helped any one long term.

Agreed, but imagine their bad debts at 5%.

[highway]

People have been saying house prices are too high and interest rates too low for over a decade now. There are now so many people up to and beyond their necks in debt that any large interest rate hike would sink them. If government let that happen where will all
These people live? The Nash struggles to house people as is. Thus talk of meaningful interest rises will
Remain, for those with cash, a pipe dream

[Digga]

jonny996 said:

all the kids that grew up in the thatcher era are fast approving that big tax free pension pot, add to that the rule changes last year and you have a lot of people with cash to buy that car they always seen the yuppies in

I think this point is key.

I also think there are a lot of people for whom the crunch is far enough back for them to have saved and plucked up the courage to pull the trigger. Advancing prices - evidence of the market picking up - often draw a lot of money off the side lines as people are galvanised into action, fearing that hesitation will put their dream out of reach. That was my excuse anyway.

[mollytherocker]

PPPPPP said:

Agreed, but imagine their bad debts at 5%.

I am no economist, but it is doesn't take a genius to understand that a 5% base rate would be devastating to the UK.

In fact, 2.5% would probably be enough to cause a huge problem.

[PorscheGT4]

mollytherocker said:

I am no economist, but it is doesn't take a genius to understand that a 5% base rate would be devastating to the UK.

In fact, 2.5% would probably be enough to cause a huge problem.

how ?

[sleep envy]

PorscheGT4 said:

not burst, just a correction, the 997 GT3 market is daft, never seen so many cars for sale, and non selling.

Roll on interest rate rises. these cars are £65k cars max the markets flooded with people who want to cash in now. don't blame them it's free money.

I think we need to see 5% base rate interest asap imo 0.5 is killing the housing market (some might say bigger rates will kill the house market, but they are over priced, it's already dead ! ) To many people renting now and too many rich people own 3+ houses, this needs to stop !! no tax is paid as there are so many loop holes in this area also.

Houses are out of control, cars are also , all due to low interest rates !!!

House market needs to fall 25% imo and the only way to do that is put up rates and make it harder to buy 3rd homes esp for non nationals.

Edited by PorscheGT4 on Monday 10th August 11:25

such as?