How do we think EU negotiations will go?

How do we think EU negotiations will go?

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dazwalsh

Original Poster:

6,095 posts

140 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
Assuming there is no sudden stab in the back for democracy with a second referendum we now need to get the best possible deal for the UK.

Merkel has already confirmed we cant have the juicy bits without the obligations so are we going to have to stomach a good bit of compromise. Free movement of people? EU contributions?

Hope this thread doesnt get shut down as its not really about the referendum more the future negotiations.

trickywoo

11,705 posts

229 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
Even if there are tariffs aren't they only 3% or thereabouts? Sterling is down more than that so our products will still be the same price to sell.

We buy so much from the EU that it isn't in their interest to put us off.

The UK is in a position of strength and should negotiate as such.

lostkiwi

4,584 posts

123 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
trickywoo said:
Even if there are tariffs aren't they only 3% or thereabouts? Sterling is down more than that so our products will still be the same price to sell.

We buy so much from the EU that it isn't in their interest to put us off.

The UK is in a position of strength and should negotiate as such.
The UK is not in a position of strength.
We have a deadline of two years in which to negotiate a deal otherwise we leave with nothing.
The EU has trade agreements all over the world, we have none.
The EU value of exports to us as a percentage of their GDP is far less than ours to them.

They will call the shots. Or just delay till the 2 year period is up.

trickywoo

11,705 posts

229 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
We have a deadline of two years in which to negotiate a deal otherwise we leave with nothing.
Whats nothing? We never buy an Audi or BMW or French wine again?

Laughable.

Mrr T

12,152 posts

264 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
trickywoo said:
Even if there are tariffs aren't they only 3% or thereabouts? Sterling is down more than that so our products will still be the same price to sell.

We buy so much from the EU that it isn't in their interest to put us off.

The UK is in a position of strength and should negotiate as such.
I repeat it again EU financial services passporting???

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
trickywoo said:
Even if there are tariffs aren't they only 3% or thereabouts? Sterling is down more than that so our products will still be the same price to sell.

We buy so much from the EU that it isn't in their interest to put us off.

The UK is in a position of strength and should negotiate as such.
The UK is not in a position of strength.
We have a deadline of two years in which to negotiate a deal otherwise we leave with nothing.
The EU has trade agreements all over the world, we have none.
The EU value of exports to us as a percentage of their GDP is far less than ours to them.

They will call the shots. Or just delay till the 2 year period is up.
Which countries supply that % of their GDP to us? Are you saying they'll give up a significant amount of their exports for the good of the whole? Because the bulk of what we import comes from relatively few countries.

I'm not saying we have the upper hand, not at all. But it's in everyone's interests to reach an amicable deal.

My fear is that we won't because of the leaders of Europe will try to punish us, despite the damage that will do to them as well, which ultimately says more about why we should leave than stay.


lostkiwi

4,584 posts

123 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
trickywoo said:
lostkiwi said:
We have a deadline of two years in which to negotiate a deal otherwise we leave with nothing.
Whats nothing? We never buy an Audi or BMW or French wine again?

Laughable.
Ah yes the ridiculous answer I expected.
Nothing in terms of trade agreements - i.e. WTO and that means tariffs and quotas. So no free trade. No Norway agreement. No Switzerland agreement. No CETA agreement. We are just another country trading on WTO rules.

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
Ah yes the ridiculous answer I expected.
Nothing in terms of trade agreements - i.e. WTO and that means tariffs and quotas. So no free trade. No Norway agreement. No Switzerland agreement. No CETA agreement. We are just another country trading on WTO rules.
The BDI has instructed Merkel that there will be no tariff barriers. She vill obey orders!

lostkiwi

4,584 posts

123 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
s2art said:
lostkiwi said:
Ah yes the ridiculous answer I expected.
Nothing in terms of trade agreements - i.e. WTO and that means tariffs and quotas. So no free trade. No Norway agreement. No Switzerland agreement. No CETA agreement. We are just another country trading on WTO rules.
The BDI has instructed Merkel that there will be no tariff barriers. She vill obey orders!
Much as many believe she is Merkel is not the EU.
Any agreement must be unanimously approved. It only takes one dissent to veto any agreement. Merkel may well do as she is told but how about the other states?

Nothing is guaranteed.

trickywoo

11,705 posts

229 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
Any agreement must be unanimously approved. It only takes one dissent to veto any agreement.
How is it bad that we are out of such a system? The costs, assuming there are any, will be well worth paying.

matsoc

853 posts

131 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
Sanctions against Russia made Italy loose €4 billions in export but they are still in place. EU decisions are not always economically wise.
The situation here is completely different but I don't think UK is in a good position in negotiations. If the UK can get all the advantages of being in EU without paying than EU is over, so I currently see only two chances if they want to keep the EU "club" running:

1) Art.50 is never applied but UK gains some other marginal privileges as an EU member with special rules
2) Art.50 is applied and UK loose the trade agreements

Murph7355

37,651 posts

255 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
...We are just another country trading on WTO rules.
In blunt terms yes.

However, we also have the 5th biggest GDP in the world and various other strengths in our favour. To dismiss that in terms of "position" is as ridiculous as thinking there are no issues and hence in that context we're not "just another country".

Everything that's being said at the moment by the EU and "our side" is merely posturing ahead of negotiation. Everything. There is a lot of water to go under the bridge on this front, and many other factors will come into play whether the eventual PM and negotiating team on our side or the EU powerbroker like it or not. It'll be a long, drawn out game of poker.

We need to enter those negotiations in a considered way (i.e. not rush) and then we get the best out of them we can.

I think it's also worth bearing in mind that no deal is set in stone for eternity. As life and the global economy progresses (/regresses smile) I fully expect tweaks and changes to happen. The key thing is that we have control of what we will and will not accept as a nation without having to unduly worry about the objectives of 27 other nation states and their population.

trickywoo

11,705 posts

229 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
matsoc said:
Sanctions against Russia made Italy loose €4 billions in export but they are still in place.
The unemployment rate in Italy is nearly 12%. Youth unemployment is over 40%. They are fked.

Italian exports to the UK are something like €15 billion.

I just hope people like you aren't negotiating for the UK.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
s2art said:
The BDI has instructed Merkel that there will be no tariff barriers. She vill obey orders!
Do you actually believe that BDI can instruct Merkel? It would be like saying CBI can instruct Cameron.

dazwalsh

Original Poster:

6,095 posts

140 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
The financial services passportings is a bit of a biggie, how likely are we to get a deal on that if we aren't in the EU? I can see a lot of financial institutions heading over the irish sea to Dublin. God knows how many jobs will go.

lostkiwi

4,584 posts

123 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
lostkiwi said:
...We are just another country trading on WTO rules.
In blunt terms yes.

However, we also have the 5th biggest GDP in the world and various other strengths in our favour. To dismiss that in terms of "position" is as ridiculous as thinking there are no issues and hence in that context we're not "just another country".

Everything that's being said at the moment by the EU and "our side" is merely posturing ahead of negotiation. Everything. There is a lot of water to go under the bridge on this front, and many other factors will come into play whether the eventual PM and negotiating team on our side or the EU powerbroker like it or not. It'll be a long, drawn out game of poker.

We need to enter those negotiations in a considered way (i.e. not rush) and then we get the best out of them we can.

I think it's also worth bearing in mind that no deal is set in stone for eternity. As life and the global economy progresses (/regresses smile) I fully expect tweaks and changes to happen. The key thing is that we have control of what we will and will not accept as a nation without having to unduly worry about the objectives of 27 other nation states and their population.
6th largest now. Since last week France has risen to the 5th spot.

I agree with you in broad terms Murph - particularly about entering negotiations in a considered way.
For this reason I think its good the big red button has yet to be pushed as it gives time to ensure the right people are in the right place to get the best we can. You are also correct that nothing is set in stone. The way I think this will play out is we will end up with WTO after 2 years but withing 5 years of that will be in a trade deal where we get free trade for some concessions over access etc.
In some ways this may not be such a bad thing as it will crystalise how much trade we do with the EU and it also levels the playing field. The only bad thing is it is likely to have further costs associated with it in terms of impact to our economy.

trickywoo

11,705 posts

229 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
dazwalsh said:
The financial services passportings is a bit of a biggie, how likely are we to get a deal on that if we aren't in the EU? I can see a lot of financial institutions heading over the irish sea to Dublin. God knows how many jobs will go.
Are all the related 'support' jobs also going to go? Legal etc?

There is a reason London is the center it is and its years of rounded development not because its been part of the EU.

You can't just move / buy a center of expertise its taken years to develop. Everyone would be in Dubai if that was possible.



rdjohn

6,135 posts

194 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
I think Cameron not invoking Article 50 is a masterstroke.

If the electorate are Chairman of the board, they have given an instruction to the CEO and the board that they wish a radical change of direction. The CEO has quit and the Board are in turmoil.

Meanwhile an army of Civil Servants will be frantically working on the minutia of the details involved in changing direction and modelling the effects of umpteen scenarios.

Mrs Merkel is being very disingenuous to the 48% who voted to stay by trying to insist Article 50 is invoked immediately. The reality is that by this time next year Hollande will be gone and his successor given a big scare from Le Pen. Not long after Mrs M will be under pressure, particularly with her open house policy last summer.

So, in the fullness of time, it is entirely possible that the intransigence of the EU towards free movement could become tempered into something more acceptable, to many EU countries.

I would suggest 5 years work permits, and if you have paid your way, you are treated equally to citizens afterwards

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
6th largest now. Since last week France has risen to the 5th spot.

I agree with you in broad terms Murph - particularly about entering negotiations in a considered way.
For this reason I think its good the big red button has yet to be pushed as it gives time to ensure the right people are in the right place to get the best we can. You are also correct that nothing is set in stone. The way I think this will play out is we will end up with WTO after 2 years but withing 5 years of that will be in a trade deal where we get free trade for some concessions over access etc.
In some ways this may not be such a bad thing as it will crystalise how much trade we do with the EU and it also levels the playing field. The only bad thing is it is likely to have further costs associated with it in terms of impact to our economy.
You realize that WTO = no passporting? If that is even remotely on the cards instead Norway/Swiss option, what we've seen so far will look like a walk in the park.

My hope now is that we get good team of negotiators, and stop with dumbass bravado that will help nothing. Have a plan, activate 50 and get on with it.

lostkiwi

4,584 posts

123 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
rdjohn said:
I think Cameron not invoking Article 50 is a masterstroke.
Agreed. Makes Boris (if he is PM) accountable for his stance in the Brexit campaign.

rdjohn said:
Mrs Merkel is being very disingenuous to the 48% who voted to stay by trying to insist Article 50 is invoked immediately.
I suspect she is just after soundbites for the domestic market. She knows the text of Article 50 and she knows it Brexit not followed constitutional process in the UK yet so is not yet invoked and could be challenged in the courts.
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