Weak Sterling effect on UK Porsche values?
Discussion
Hell man you make it sound all very dramatic. Looked at in a different light I would suggest the situation in Greece and several other EU countries are far more a mess. Likewise Italian and German banks...quite a mess. The Euro will not survive as more and more people are beginning to recognise...perhaps the biggest mess of the lot! So I would say being able to dictate ourselves how to handle our own mess is far more preferable to letting Brussels and the autocrats dictate for us.
ras62 said:
Hell man you make it sound all very dramatic. Looked at in a different light I would suggest the situation in Greece and several other EU countries are far more a mess. Likewise Italian and German banks...quite a mess. The Euro will not survive as more and more people are beginning to recognise...perhaps the biggest mess of the lot! So I would say being able to dictate ourselves how to handle our own mess is far more preferable to letting Brussels and the autocrats dictate for us.
Although I agree with a lot of the sentiment of your post - I still think it's better to opt for fiscal stability as this drives everything. The facts of us "leaving" are this :£ devaluation of up to 20 %
Leads to Inflation and margin erosion
Inflation leads to interest rate rises
Leads to increased loan costs
All of this together leads to less non discretionary spending when margins are already reduced
Leading to people going bust and further unemployment / less tax revenue - more borrowing, tax rises or cuts .
A negative cycle that is very tough to break .
All this so we can say we protect our borders from people we need to make the economy work .
I genuinely believe that the country has voted for recession (driven by a few people's political ambition) and I think it's really frustrating and sad on all sorts of levels - but hey ho , guess we just better just suck it up and crack on
I deliberately didn't mention the thorny issue of the migration crisis but its another major problem facing Europe. Indeed free movement and open boarders is no longer working as can be seen with Sweeden/Norway/Hungary situation, yet this will be the key negotiation point of the EU. Go figure.
The pound has been depreciating for a long time and will continue to do so. Your points on inflation are fair but inflation also has many positives. It encourages exports thereby creating jobs and investment and given time will be a positive on the balance of payments. Crucially a normalisation of intrest rates may actually save British banks and pension funds. The deflationary wave cursing Europe is far more problematic and will end in Euro chaos at which point the hot air spouted by Brussels will be largely irrelevant.
The pound has been depreciating for a long time and will continue to do so. Your points on inflation are fair but inflation also has many positives. It encourages exports thereby creating jobs and investment and given time will be a positive on the balance of payments. Crucially a normalisation of intrest rates may actually save British banks and pension funds. The deflationary wave cursing Europe is far more problematic and will end in Euro chaos at which point the hot air spouted by Brussels will be largely irrelevant.
ras62 said:
I deliberately didn't mention the thorny issue of the migration crisis but its another major problem facing Europe. Indeed free movement and open boarders is no longer working as can be seen with Sweeden/Norway/Hungary situation, yet this will be the key negotiation point of the EU. Go figure.
The pound has been depreciating for a long time and will continue to do so. Your points on inflation are fair but inflation also has many positives. It encourages exports thereby creating jobs and investment and given time will be a positive on the balance of payments. Crucially a normalisation of intrest rates may actually save British banks and pension funds. The deflationary wave cursing Europe is far more problematic and will end in Euro chaos at which point the hot air spouted by Brussels will be largely irrelevant.
You know what , I agree that it's multidimensional and complex and very hard to call what will happen exactly, however I'm pretty sure that the risks are on the downside and will be for the foreseeable future. I predict there will be a point in time in the future when no one will admit to voting out - time will tell , I guess . This is one where I'd be extremely happy to be proved wrong The pound has been depreciating for a long time and will continue to do so. Your points on inflation are fair but inflation also has many positives. It encourages exports thereby creating jobs and investment and given time will be a positive on the balance of payments. Crucially a normalisation of intrest rates may actually save British banks and pension funds. The deflationary wave cursing Europe is far more problematic and will end in Euro chaos at which point the hot air spouted by Brussels will be largely irrelevant.
Edited by RSVP911 on Saturday 22 October 19:26
I also agree with the Ras62 sentiment ... and for the reason that Europe will never agree terms for Brexit favour a very rapid return to the WTO back marker of 10% tariffs.
Why, because when those who are more comfortable in the diplomatic language of French attempt to dictate that the Brits should negotiate Brexit in French, I realise that "Europe" is not a sensible forum.
How different from those wonderful souls in Thiepval and others who remember what France would have been like without the many lives shed for a free France, and the losses of the French resistance in support of this.
I should imagine that Germany is quietly terrified that they may need to befriend such sentiment, embarrassed as they are with their history and in fairness, their ambition now to finance an EU project for which the greatest reward, is peace.
Do we really think that the UK could have no serious part to play in helping Germany achieve and maintain this ?
Yes, Europe needs sorting, but can we in the UK really pretend that we are stronger separately from Europe ?
Meanwhile, Mr Putin rings the changes and plays the silly infighting of a EU that needs to solve the immigration question that is common to all.
Go figure. What is money without PEACE ...
Why, because when those who are more comfortable in the diplomatic language of French attempt to dictate that the Brits should negotiate Brexit in French, I realise that "Europe" is not a sensible forum.
How different from those wonderful souls in Thiepval and others who remember what France would have been like without the many lives shed for a free France, and the losses of the French resistance in support of this.
I should imagine that Germany is quietly terrified that they may need to befriend such sentiment, embarrassed as they are with their history and in fairness, their ambition now to finance an EU project for which the greatest reward, is peace.
Do we really think that the UK could have no serious part to play in helping Germany achieve and maintain this ?
Yes, Europe needs sorting, but can we in the UK really pretend that we are stronger separately from Europe ?
Meanwhile, Mr Putin rings the changes and plays the silly infighting of a EU that needs to solve the immigration question that is common to all.
Go figure. What is money without PEACE ...
ChrisW. said:
I also agree with the Ras62 sentiment ... and for the reason that Europe will never agree terms for Brexit favour a very rapid return to the WTO back marker of 10% tariffs.
Why, because when those who are more comfortable in the diplomatic language of French attempt to dictate that the Brits should negotiate Brexit in French, I realise that "Europe" is not a sensible forum.
How different from those wonderful souls in Thiepval and others who remember what France would have been like without the many lives shed for a free France, and the losses of the French resistance in support of this.
I should imagine that Germany is quietly terrified that they may need to befriend such sentiment, embarrassed as they are with their history and in fairness, their ambition now to finance an EU project for which the greatest reward, is peace.
Do we really think that the UK could have no serious part to play in helping Germany achieve and maintain this ?
Yes, Europe needs sorting, but can we in the UK really pretend that we are stronger separately from Europe ?
Meanwhile, Mr Putin rings the changes and plays the silly infighting of a EU that needs to solve the immigration question that is common to all.
Go figure. What is money without PEACE ...
Hear HearWhy, because when those who are more comfortable in the diplomatic language of French attempt to dictate that the Brits should negotiate Brexit in French, I realise that "Europe" is not a sensible forum.
How different from those wonderful souls in Thiepval and others who remember what France would have been like without the many lives shed for a free France, and the losses of the French resistance in support of this.
I should imagine that Germany is quietly terrified that they may need to befriend such sentiment, embarrassed as they are with their history and in fairness, their ambition now to finance an EU project for which the greatest reward, is peace.
Do we really think that the UK could have no serious part to play in helping Germany achieve and maintain this ?
Yes, Europe needs sorting, but can we in the UK really pretend that we are stronger separately from Europe ?
Meanwhile, Mr Putin rings the changes and plays the silly infighting of a EU that needs to solve the immigration question that is common to all.
Go figure. What is money without PEACE ...
Interesting discussion, one term that has yet to crop up and is ultimately what RSVP911 is wondering about is..... stagflation. Sadly it's anyone's guess what the powers that be choose to battle it. Carney can basically blag anything as the conundrum has no straight answer and ultimately, as what he says goes, he can make the judgement call as to what he's more/less worried about and take the credit or pass the blame (easy enough to point the finger at politicians).
Whatever your views on Brexit, the outcome and future, the whole EU project reeks of cutting your winners and running your losers. The clowns in Brussels were willing to cut a deal with the Greeks to keep them quiet chucking good money after bad, but couldn't/wouldn't cut a worthwhile deal with Cameron (who probably didn't take things seriously enough himself thinking a referendum was a foregone conclusion) all in the name of what? And once more the battle of politics vs economics rages...
Whatever your views on Brexit, the outcome and future, the whole EU project reeks of cutting your winners and running your losers. The clowns in Brussels were willing to cut a deal with the Greeks to keep them quiet chucking good money after bad, but couldn't/wouldn't cut a worthwhile deal with Cameron (who probably didn't take things seriously enough himself thinking a referendum was a foregone conclusion) all in the name of what? And once more the battle of politics vs economics rages...
If we're going to start discussing economics we need to think about pricing power....which is something Porsche probably more than any other manufacturer. You want to order a new 911 Targa now....you'll wait a year and obviously have zero chance of getting a discount. Clearly there are some cars that most mere mortals can't even be considered for.
They are better placed than almost any other manufacturer to pass on price rises to consumers.
Sure there are broader economic considerations but I think Porsche's need to increase prices because of FX moves will come before some of the economic issues Carney will face which might not hit for another year or 18 months.
Any road I've voted with my cheque book and bought a Porsche yesterday...all be it one that is less desirable than most.
They are better placed than almost any other manufacturer to pass on price rises to consumers.
Sure there are broader economic considerations but I think Porsche's need to increase prices because of FX moves will come before some of the economic issues Carney will face which might not hit for another year or 18 months.
Any road I've voted with my cheque book and bought a Porsche yesterday...all be it one that is less desirable than most.
Any strategic decision is difficult when you have political uncertainty that is so impactful. It makes sense to wait and see. In the meantime, using levers meaningful and in control by the government , we can spur domestic consumption and investment.
The situation is challenging but the outcome of how we fare in the future is way too soon to tell.
The situation is challenging but the outcome of how we fare in the future is way too soon to tell.
Europe is in no fit state economically to impose draconian tariffs on Uk imports,we import £97 billion more from europe than we export to them.The Uk is the largest consumer of Champagne and french wine in the world,we also buy 20% of all german cars and import twice as much goods from germany than they do from us.Also Italian banks have £315 billion worth of toxic debt on their books and german banks are close to collapse due to not making reforms after 2008 as we did.
If we assume we apply an average WTO 10%tariffs on all post brexit trade between us and europe we will gain £10 billion in tariffs plus the £10 billion saving in the net contribution we currently make which equates to an annual financial benefit of £20 billion into the Uk treasury.What we are currently experiencing from Hollande and Merkel is brinkmanship combined with childish playground bully tactics iho.
If we assume we apply an average WTO 10%tariffs on all post brexit trade between us and europe we will gain £10 billion in tariffs plus the £10 billion saving in the net contribution we currently make which equates to an annual financial benefit of £20 billion into the Uk treasury.What we are currently experiencing from Hollande and Merkel is brinkmanship combined with childish playground bully tactics iho.
Taffy66 said:
Europe is in no fit state economically to impose draconian tariffs on Uk imports,we import £97 billion more from europe than we export to them.The Uk is the largest consumer of Champagne and french wine in the world,we also buy 20% of all german cars and import twice as much goods from germany than they do from us.Also Italian banks have £315 billion worth of toxic debt on their books and german banks are close to collapse due to not making reforms after 2008 as we did.
If we assume we apply an average WTO 10%tariffs on all post brexit trade between us and europe we will gain £10 billion in tariffs plus the £10 billion saving in the net contribution we currently make which equates to an annual financial benefit of £20 billion into the Uk treasury.What we are currently experiencing from Hollande and Merkel is brinkmanship combined with childish playground bully tactics iho.
Interesting post - If true, I guess we have to hope that common sense prevails and politics takes a back seat. If we assume we apply an average WTO 10%tariffs on all post brexit trade between us and europe we will gain £10 billion in tariffs plus the £10 billion saving in the net contribution we currently make which equates to an annual financial benefit of £20 billion into the Uk treasury.What we are currently experiencing from Hollande and Merkel is brinkmanship combined with childish playground bully tactics iho.
I'm not sure that they do common sense though :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37735409
As others have said , time will tell. Interesting times ahead - I'm off for a drive
Taffy66 said:
Europe is in no fit state economically to impose draconian tariffs on Uk imports,we import £97 billion more from europe than we export to them.The Uk is the largest consumer of Champagne and french wine in the world,we also buy 20% of all german cars and import twice as much goods from germany than they do from us.Also Italian banks have £315 billion worth of toxic debt on their books and german banks are close to collapse due to not making reforms after 2008 as we did.
If we assume we apply an average WTO 10%tariffs on all post brexit trade between us and europe we will gain £10 billion in tariffs plus the £10 billion saving in the net contribution we currently make which equates to an annual financial benefit of £20 billion into the Uk treasury.What we are currently experiencing from Hollande and Merkel is brinkmanship combined with childish playground bully tactics iho.
yes but the fact that Europe can't act is working to their advantage. look at the CETA .If we assume we apply an average WTO 10%tariffs on all post brexit trade between us and europe we will gain £10 billion in tariffs plus the £10 billion saving in the net contribution we currently make which equates to an annual financial benefit of £20 billion into the Uk treasury.What we are currently experiencing from Hollande and Merkel is brinkmanship combined with childish playground bully tactics iho.
how do you negotiate when they plainly can't get agreement. TBH, I can't see a hard brexit but I can definitely see a PROLONGED brexit. I'm sure we'll still be talking about this in 10 years...... let me bookmark this.
Edited by HokumPokum on Sunday 23 October 16:40
nickfrog said:
The UK doesn't even consume half as much as the US, France, Germany, Italy etc... individually. It's a relatively small wine/Champagne market.
They are not very price sensitive products anyway.
Tell that to Asda who are transforming UK Champagne market thanks to pricing. And Champagne exports alone to U.K worth close to half a billion Euros a year. But you can't drive a bottle They are not very price sensitive products anyway.
Woe is me. We have created a big mess. Pure stupidity. I would agree with those sentiments IF the Eurozone was in perfect harmony but it is not. It is a complete and utter mess. Free trade between countries makes absolute common sense. To have our lives controlled by an unelected bunch of bureaucrats with their obvious agenda is completely unacceptable.
The Eurozone will fail. It has to. It does not work. One size does not fit all. Factor this into our decision to leave and it makes perfect sense. Get ahead of the game.
I was chatting to a couple of swiss guys both in there 80's last week. They asked if I voted out. We then chatted for a while and they put their point of view across. A view I shared completely. The absolute control of Europe and the UK was the remit of Germany in WW11. The agenda has not changed just the method by which to deploy it.
Peace is of paramount importance but not at the bequest of liberty
The Eurozone will fail. It has to. It does not work. One size does not fit all. Factor this into our decision to leave and it makes perfect sense. Get ahead of the game.
I was chatting to a couple of swiss guys both in there 80's last week. They asked if I voted out. We then chatted for a while and they put their point of view across. A view I shared completely. The absolute control of Europe and the UK was the remit of Germany in WW11. The agenda has not changed just the method by which to deploy it.
Peace is of paramount importance but not at the bequest of liberty
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