996-997 wet-sump engine reliability: enter your stats here!
Discussion
Globs said:
10k of this type of unit a year in the UK? You'll have to help me believe that figure, esp. as they no longer sell them.
Regardless your figures are so short on basic math they hold up about as well as the engines.
First you bang on about failure rate but fail to define it, then you imply it's the amount of current failures of all made (with your 90k figure).
So no - you can't make that failure rate work because it's rubbish, and nothing like my statement. I specified a 90% failure rate over 100k (or over the lifetime - can't see my post now I'm typing this). This is a very clear definition - if we use the 100k mile one it says 'I expect 90 out of every 100 cars will have gone pop by the time they reach 100k miles'. A brief read of the classifieds will show you how few of these cars have even reached 100k miles, and none in there will be at the end of life.
If we work from some basic figures of a 3 year average ownership and a reported 11% failure rate within that (bearing in mind we will never hear about most early term warranty fixes) you could say roughly a third will fail over 9 years - or nearly 40% so far with the average car age. Then as the average age doubles in 6 years time or so you'd expect that 40% to creep up to 80% failure.
Failure doesn't of course work in linear ways like this, a gentle owner could sell a mint 30k miler car to someone who likes racing at the lights and bang - it's another one biting the dust. But the figures reported and my opinion that 9 out of 10 cars will eventually fail are sadly compatible. Also it's a mechanical end-of-life bathtub curve thing, in the next few years as more and more cars reach the wear limits we could be looking at an explosion of failures, I certainly would not be surprised with a product that appears to have a lifetime somewhat less than 10 years built in.
This probably helps explain some of the sales drop of the 911/Boxster in 2010 (while the Cayenne carried on unaffected) - the stories are now so widespread that it's affecting new car sales - even despite their new design engine. I really don't think the bean counters at Porsche thought this through to the impact this huge brand damage would have on the bottom line a few years down the line. And I know Porsche bleat on about rising sales - that's the Panamera, not the declining 911/Boxster/Cayman.
And the sad thing is - this situation is entirely (and quite literally) of their own making and easily avoidable with some basic QA, they (and all their customers left holding the baby) really have only one place to blame: Porsche.
Perhaps all that time upper management spent playing the stock market, annoying the hedge funds and VW could have been more usefully spend glancing over at their core business?
You quote a lot of numbers here and significantly higher percentages than Baz in the next post (Baz being an independent specialist, what's your qualification again?). Where are you getting these numbers from? Your pure guesswork? How are these figures at all credible?Regardless your figures are so short on basic math they hold up about as well as the engines.
First you bang on about failure rate but fail to define it, then you imply it's the amount of current failures of all made (with your 90k figure).
So no - you can't make that failure rate work because it's rubbish, and nothing like my statement. I specified a 90% failure rate over 100k (or over the lifetime - can't see my post now I'm typing this). This is a very clear definition - if we use the 100k mile one it says 'I expect 90 out of every 100 cars will have gone pop by the time they reach 100k miles'. A brief read of the classifieds will show you how few of these cars have even reached 100k miles, and none in there will be at the end of life.
If we work from some basic figures of a 3 year average ownership and a reported 11% failure rate within that (bearing in mind we will never hear about most early term warranty fixes) you could say roughly a third will fail over 9 years - or nearly 40% so far with the average car age. Then as the average age doubles in 6 years time or so you'd expect that 40% to creep up to 80% failure.
Failure doesn't of course work in linear ways like this, a gentle owner could sell a mint 30k miler car to someone who likes racing at the lights and bang - it's another one biting the dust. But the figures reported and my opinion that 9 out of 10 cars will eventually fail are sadly compatible. Also it's a mechanical end-of-life bathtub curve thing, in the next few years as more and more cars reach the wear limits we could be looking at an explosion of failures, I certainly would not be surprised with a product that appears to have a lifetime somewhat less than 10 years built in.
This probably helps explain some of the sales drop of the 911/Boxster in 2010 (while the Cayenne carried on unaffected) - the stories are now so widespread that it's affecting new car sales - even despite their new design engine. I really don't think the bean counters at Porsche thought this through to the impact this huge brand damage would have on the bottom line a few years down the line. And I know Porsche bleat on about rising sales - that's the Panamera, not the declining 911/Boxster/Cayman.
And the sad thing is - this situation is entirely (and quite literally) of their own making and easily avoidable with some basic QA, they (and all their customers left holding the baby) really have only one place to blame: Porsche.
Perhaps all that time upper management spent playing the stock market, annoying the hedge funds and VW could have been more usefully spend glancing over at their core business?
noumenon said:
stuff
Nounenon, I'm guessing you just want me to say 'only 50% will fail after 100k miles', or 'only 75% will fail after 100k miles'. Would that suddenly make your engine more reliable? Would it excuse Porsche and suddenly make the brand look good? No.
I don't agree with 50% or 75% however. From what I see and I read, in these polls and in the second hand market, I have shown you in numbers, and they are broadly comparable to my estimates. Unless over time these engines somehow manage to reverse the wear and rebuild themselves they are mechanical and will wear according to recognised patterns. They are in effect like a clock.
If you want to contact Porsche and get a table of mileage vs failure for all of these cars then fine, they will be the correct numbers (so far - not to 100k), otherwise you are welcome to provide your own PHD level enquiry.
Incidentally I have noticed you give not a single figure or opinion: so how long do you thing these engines will last. Bear in mind they all have the same basic set of faults as they were made on the same line, with variation depending upon exact model.
Currently new owners would do better to accept these engines are disposable and make plans to factor repairs (or proper fixes that tackle the cause). If you take your view or Porsche's view you may be fine, but you may also be in for a world of unexpected financial hurt - something to avoid in these times. You need to man up about this issue and face it head on.
Globs said:
Nounenon, I'm guessing you just want me to say 'only 50% will fail after 100k miles', or 'only 75% will fail after 100k miles'. Would that suddenly make your engine more reliable? Would it excuse Porsche and suddenly make the brand look good?
No.
I don't agree with 50% or 75% however. From what I see and I read, in these polls and in the second hand market, I have shown you in numbers, and they are broadly comparable to my estimates. Unless over time these engines somehow manage to reverse the wear and rebuild themselves they are mechanical and will wear according to recognised patterns. They are in effect like a clock.
If you want to contact Porsche and get a table of mileage vs failure for all of these cars then fine, they will be the correct numbers (so far - not to 100k), otherwise you are welcome to provide your own PHD level enquiry.
Incidentally I have noticed you give not a single figure or opinion: so how long do you thing these engines will last. Bear in mind they all have the same basic set of faults as they were made on the same line, with variation depending upon exact model.
Currently new owners would do better to accept these engines are disposable and make plans to factor repairs (or proper fixes that tackle the cause). If you take your view or Porsche's view you may be fine, but you may also be in for a world of unexpected financial hurt - something to avoid in these times. You need to man up about this issue and face it head on.
The view from your Ivory Tower must be spectacular.No.
I don't agree with 50% or 75% however. From what I see and I read, in these polls and in the second hand market, I have shown you in numbers, and they are broadly comparable to my estimates. Unless over time these engines somehow manage to reverse the wear and rebuild themselves they are mechanical and will wear according to recognised patterns. They are in effect like a clock.
If you want to contact Porsche and get a table of mileage vs failure for all of these cars then fine, they will be the correct numbers (so far - not to 100k), otherwise you are welcome to provide your own PHD level enquiry.
Incidentally I have noticed you give not a single figure or opinion: so how long do you thing these engines will last. Bear in mind they all have the same basic set of faults as they were made on the same line, with variation depending upon exact model.
Currently new owners would do better to accept these engines are disposable and make plans to factor repairs (or proper fixes that tackle the cause). If you take your view or Porsche's view you may be fine, but you may also be in for a world of unexpected financial hurt - something to avoid in these times. You need to man up about this issue and face it head on.
hartech said:
Well I guess that brilliantly researched piece of scientific evidence proves beyond doubt that they don't actually go wrong and all the ones we repair every day are just a figment of our over active imagination.
Baz
Like I said, I don’t doubt your company or your reputation, I had a 968 and often heard your companies name. You also quote (what I see as) reasonable figures:Baz
Lets say 1 % fail at 5 years old, 2% at 6 years old, 3% at 7 years old etc
I don’t however agree with these forum monkeys who are tagging along with these 90% figures and probably drive a mini metro.
I do agree that these cars should be driven and enjoyed and there are people out there who can fix the small % of cars that have issues, or just keep your cars in warranty. Mine has 2 years warranty from 3 weeks ago and is 6 years old. I’ll keep it going also.
You obviously won't be fixing 90% of all 996's, 997's, Boxters and Caymans in the country. Probably not even 5% as there must be several 100,000:
'I would not have any concerns regards the 997 model but with there being over 100,000 997s in circulation now and the engine was a development of the previous model of which a similar number were produced. There is no inherent fault with the engines and either model of car should provide the driving enjoyment you desire.'
Regards
Stefan Loots
Porsche Specialist
Porsche Centre Guildford
fastgerman said:
'There is no inherent fault with the engines and either model of car should provide the driving enjoyment you desire.'
Regards
Stefan Loots
Porsche Specialist
Porsche Centre Guildford
Tell that to the owners who've had to pay just shy of £10k to fix this non-inherent fault. Scored bores are a design fault, we know it, you know and Porsche know it.Regards
Stefan Loots
Porsche Specialist
Porsche Centre Guildford
Edited by s_mcneil on Thursday 20th October 17:02
s_mcneil said:
fastgerman said:
There is no inherent fault with the engines and either model of car should provide the driving enjoyment you desire.'
Regards
Stefan Loots
Porsche Specialist
Porsche Centre Guildford
Tell that to the owners who've had to pay just shy of £10k to fix this non-inherent fault. Scored bores are a design fault, we know it, you know and Porsche know it.Regards
Stefan Loots
Porsche Specialist
Porsche Centre Guildford
fastgerman said:
Like I said, I don’t doubt your company or your reputation, I had a 968 and often heard your companies name. You also quote (what I see as) reasonable figures:
Lets say 1 % fail at 5 years old, 2% at 6 years old, 3% at 7 years old etc
I don’t however agree with these forum monkeys who are tagging along with these 90% figures and probably drive a mini metro.
I do agree that these cars should be driven and enjoyed and there are people out there who can fix the small % of cars that have issues, or just keep your cars in warranty. Mine has 2 years warranty from 3 weeks ago and is 6 years old. I’ll keep it going also.
You obviously won't be fixing 90% of all 996's, 997's, Boxters and Caymans in the country. Probably not even 5% as there must be several 100,000:
'I would not have any concerns regards the 997 model but with there being over 100,000 997s in circulation now and the engine was a development of the previous model of which a similar number were produced. There is no inherent fault with the engines and either model of car should provide the driving enjoyment you desire.'
Regards
Stefan Loots
Porsche Specialist
Porsche Centre Guildford
No inherent fault really? whos figures are you doubting on here? You cannot possibly belive there are no problems if you are a specialist as you say you WILL know this isnt true?Lets say 1 % fail at 5 years old, 2% at 6 years old, 3% at 7 years old etc
I don’t however agree with these forum monkeys who are tagging along with these 90% figures and probably drive a mini metro.
I do agree that these cars should be driven and enjoyed and there are people out there who can fix the small % of cars that have issues, or just keep your cars in warranty. Mine has 2 years warranty from 3 weeks ago and is 6 years old. I’ll keep it going also.
You obviously won't be fixing 90% of all 996's, 997's, Boxters and Caymans in the country. Probably not even 5% as there must be several 100,000:
'I would not have any concerns regards the 997 model but with there being over 100,000 997s in circulation now and the engine was a development of the previous model of which a similar number were produced. There is no inherent fault with the engines and either model of car should provide the driving enjoyment you desire.'
Regards
Stefan Loots
Porsche Specialist
Porsche Centre Guildford
nb ive just today seen yet another 996 with a new OPC engine @78k
fastgerman said:
This isn't what I'm referring to, it's the % that go wrong, which cannot be 90% (as gets quoted) or even over 50%.
Fine. Lots fail. The cars have an inherent fault: regular scored bores and seized pistons (and poor RMS alignment). This is well known and internationally accepted, and completely crass. Why did Porsche let it go on? Tell me; tell us all....ScienceTeacher said:
fastgerman said:
This isn't what I'm referring to, it's the % that go wrong, which cannot be 90% (as gets quoted) or even over 50%.
Fine. Lots fail. The cars have an inherent fault: regular scored bores and seized pistons (and poor RMS alignment). This is well known and internationally accepted, and completely crass. Why did Porsche let it go on? Tell me; tell us all....Fastgerman - should I change to an old Yugo? These engines need all the help I can give - just let me know what car I have to drive to solve this issue.
Globs said:
Nounenon, I'm guessing you just want me to say 'only 50% will fail after 100k miles', or 'only 75% will fail after 100k miles'. Would that suddenly make your engine more reliable? Would it excuse Porsche and suddenly make the brand look good? No.
I have no brand allegiance. I've owned many cars and different brands. It makes no odds to me what Porsche's reputation is.Globs said:
I don't agree with 50% or 75% however. From what I see and I read, in these polls and in the second hand market, I have shown you in numbers, and they are broadly comparable to my estimates. Unless over time these engines somehow manage to reverse the wear and rebuild themselves they are mechanical and will wear according to recognised patterns. They are in effect like a clock.
You have not shown me in numbers. Please state and link your sources, as any truly scientific study would. JDPower shows that they are one of the more reliable brands here: http://www.jdpower.com/autos/ratings/dependability...Globs said:
Incidentally I have noticed you give not a single figure or opinion: so how long do you thing these engines will last. Bear in mind they all have the same basic set of faults as they were made on the same line, with variation depending upon exact model.
Like all engines I think they will generally last well depending on how they are treated and serviced. I don't make claims I can't substantiate.Globs said:
Currently new owners would do better to accept these engines are disposable and make plans to factor repairs (or proper fixes that tackle the cause). If you take your view or Porsche's view you may be fine, but you may also be in for a world of unexpected financial hurt - something to avoid in these times. You need to man up about this issue and face it head on.
Does buying a used Boxster S and running it for a period, without warranty count? If so I have a tick in that box. =)I found this article quite interesting:
http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2010/03/18/jd-power...
http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2010/03/18/jd-power...
JD Power and Associates said:
"The German sports car brand took the No. 1 spot in the annual [2010] study"
"J.D. Power's 2010 dependability study surveyed more than 52,000 original owners of 2007 model-year vehicles between October and December 2009. The results are watched closely by automakers and are often used in advertising. Owners' opinion of a car after three years can be a major influence on their opinion to buy that brand again."
"J.D. Power's 2010 dependability study surveyed more than 52,000 original owners of 2007 model-year vehicles between October and December 2009. The results are watched closely by automakers and are often used in advertising. Owners' opinion of a car after three years can be a major influence on their opinion to buy that brand again."
Guys - you should not be surprised that a specialist working for Porsche Centre Guildford cannot admit there is an "inherent design fault" - the whole World knows there is. I think he gave you a clue as to why he has to use that line by explaining where is earns his living!
Either that or the brain washing that goes on has worked on him as well.
Old cars Inherent faults were - IMS bearings and spindles and "D" Chunk cylinders - and newer models "Scored Bores and pistons" - all the other faults probably could be at an acceptable level for a high performance sports car in our modern World.
Porsche have done little to help except a scheme they male more money out of - some others make money fixing them - we have tried to find a way to help those who have not yet experienced the problems - to delay or escape it all together.
We cannot do much for older engines - so "D" Chunk and IMS bearing failure seems almost inevitable at some mileage/age (yet to be determined) or another - but our rebuild solutions have proven the best way out for customers with a superb satisfaction rate. We can help with newer engines by lowering the running temperature below that originally designed for to compensate for the gradual deterioration of the system and increases in running temperatures that seem to creep up with age. I think it is because they engines run so close to an acceptable temperature limit that when they age various minor changes push them beyond the limit in some cases - like internal cylinder block contamination, reduced coolant effectiveness, worn coolant pumps, tired thermostats, blocked or leaking radiators etc.
For those with scored bores - we will soon be announcing a new solution to the scored bore problem that we have been testing for over a year - that will reduce rebuild costs further.
Meanwhile I have been contacted with a Gen 2 customer with what appears to be a scored bore problem - no I am not scare mongering - but will wait to see the evidence first before saying too much more.
Baz
Either that or the brain washing that goes on has worked on him as well.
Old cars Inherent faults were - IMS bearings and spindles and "D" Chunk cylinders - and newer models "Scored Bores and pistons" - all the other faults probably could be at an acceptable level for a high performance sports car in our modern World.
Porsche have done little to help except a scheme they male more money out of - some others make money fixing them - we have tried to find a way to help those who have not yet experienced the problems - to delay or escape it all together.
We cannot do much for older engines - so "D" Chunk and IMS bearing failure seems almost inevitable at some mileage/age (yet to be determined) or another - but our rebuild solutions have proven the best way out for customers with a superb satisfaction rate. We can help with newer engines by lowering the running temperature below that originally designed for to compensate for the gradual deterioration of the system and increases in running temperatures that seem to creep up with age. I think it is because they engines run so close to an acceptable temperature limit that when they age various minor changes push them beyond the limit in some cases - like internal cylinder block contamination, reduced coolant effectiveness, worn coolant pumps, tired thermostats, blocked or leaking radiators etc.
For those with scored bores - we will soon be announcing a new solution to the scored bore problem that we have been testing for over a year - that will reduce rebuild costs further.
Meanwhile I have been contacted with a Gen 2 customer with what appears to be a scored bore problem - no I am not scare mongering - but will wait to see the evidence first before saying too much more.
Baz
ScienceTeacher said:
fastgerman said:
This isn't what I'm referring to, it's the % that go wrong, which cannot be 90% (as gets quoted) or even over 50%.
Fine. Lots fail. The cars have an inherent fault: regular scored bores and seized pistons (and poor RMS alignment). This is well known and internationally accepted, and completely crass. Why did Porsche let it go on? Tell me; tell us all....Thank you for your recent enquiry. There is some truth in the matter regards Rear Main Oils seals on the 996 model rather than the 997 models, the problem occurred with the pre face lift models thus pre 2001 models. the latter engines more refined and better reliability being the 1st water cooled engines in the 911.
I would not have any concerns regards the 997 model but with there being over 100,000 997s in circulation now and the engine was a development of the previous model of which a similar number were produced. There is no inherent fault with the engines and either model of car should provide the driving enjoyment you desire.
ref - http://www.fastgerman.com/forum/?p=78
Edited by fastgerman on Friday 21st October 14:36
fastgerman said:
full email from Porsche:
Thank you for your recent enquiry. There is some truth in the matter regards Rear Main Oils seals on the 996 model rather than the 997 models, the problem occurred with the pre face lift models thus pre 2001 models. the latter engines more refined and better reliability being the 1st water cooled engines in the 911.
I would not have any concerns regards the 997 model but with there being over 100,000 997s in circulation now and the engine was a development of the previous model of which a similar number were produced. There is no inherent fault with the engines and either model of car should provide the driving enjoyment you desire.
What did you expect them to say?Thank you for your recent enquiry. There is some truth in the matter regards Rear Main Oils seals on the 996 model rather than the 997 models, the problem occurred with the pre face lift models thus pre 2001 models. the latter engines more refined and better reliability being the 1st water cooled engines in the 911.
I would not have any concerns regards the 997 model but with there being over 100,000 997s in circulation now and the engine was a development of the previous model of which a similar number were produced. There is no inherent fault with the engines and either model of car should provide the driving enjoyment you desire.
Denying reality is a regular event for large corporations, nevertheless people generally prefer to trust their own eyes.
I think recent times have taught us this rather thoroughly, if nothing else.
Oh BTW, I disagree with you and nonernum, I think you'll be lucky if 90% of them last past 100k miles.
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