F430 Market Watch
Discussion
I was discussing F1 vs manual the other day. Ferrari is all about providing the best high performance technology in road cars. If you drive these cars like they are supposed to be driven (ie: quickly) then I can't see reasons for the hate of the F1 box - it is much better then a manual shift.
kbooker said:
SlartiF430 said:
I love manuals but my 430 is an F1 and I think it's blooming marvelous - I would not for a moment change it for a manual.
Me too
Time for another update. For news of yet another rise in 360 prices head over to the Aldous Voice Blog.
Average F430 asking prices have slipped once again, this time 0.29% from the prior month. This brings the index to 99.40.
Here's the evolution of the average asking prices over time:
To be honest, I'm very surprised by the lack of buoyancy in this market. The 360 has enjoyed a stellar year and I was expecting them to be pushing up the F430. There is room at the top end since you cannot buy a 458 Italia for less than £140k, yet the F430 doesn't seem to be able to get above the £100k level. I think that either the 360 is due a minor correction or there will be a jump in F430 prices. There has to be as who in their right mind would spend similar money on a 360 over a F430?
Anyway, back to the data. The number of cars for sale has dropped a touch (85 vs 91 last month). Activity seems strong with 29 cars dropping out of the data (presumably sold) and 26 new entrants to the market.
Here are the main tables (note my new and improved algorithm is now differentiating between LHD and RHD cars).
Here is the plot of price vs mileages:
And here are the average asking prices for various mileages:
My new program allows me to quickly prepare a 2-factor analysis of price vs mileages vs another factor. To demonstrate I have shown the brake type - as you can see CCM commands a circa £5k premium.
Finally, here's the big table braking down the change in population from one month to the other (click on the pic to go to Thumbsnap and click it again to zoom in).
That's it for this month. As usual, please let me know if you want anything in particular.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Average F430 asking prices have slipped once again, this time 0.29% from the prior month. This brings the index to 99.40.
Here's the evolution of the average asking prices over time:
To be honest, I'm very surprised by the lack of buoyancy in this market. The 360 has enjoyed a stellar year and I was expecting them to be pushing up the F430. There is room at the top end since you cannot buy a 458 Italia for less than £140k, yet the F430 doesn't seem to be able to get above the £100k level. I think that either the 360 is due a minor correction or there will be a jump in F430 prices. There has to be as who in their right mind would spend similar money on a 360 over a F430?
Anyway, back to the data. The number of cars for sale has dropped a touch (85 vs 91 last month). Activity seems strong with 29 cars dropping out of the data (presumably sold) and 26 new entrants to the market.
Here are the main tables (note my new and improved algorithm is now differentiating between LHD and RHD cars).
Here is the plot of price vs mileages:
And here are the average asking prices for various mileages:
My new program allows me to quickly prepare a 2-factor analysis of price vs mileages vs another factor. To demonstrate I have shown the brake type - as you can see CCM commands a circa £5k premium.
Finally, here's the big table braking down the change in population from one month to the other (click on the pic to go to Thumbsnap and click it again to zoom in).
That's it for this month. As usual, please let me know if you want anything in particular.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Just my thoughts Voicey: "who in their right minds..." - possibly nobody. Regardless of which car a buyer prefers, the 360 is much more affordable the the F430. This could be making it a popular choice for more people and that tends to nudge the prices up a little. I think the prices are led by the earlier models and the knock on effect gradually pushes up the newer cars over time as previous models become more expensive. The cars we've looked into over the last ten years with a view to buy (308/328/355) would now cost more than the model we actually bought so maybe it's a year or so too soon to compare the graphs for the two models.
There's no doubt the F430 is a more advanced car than the 360 due to its evolution and development but that doesn't make it more desirable to potential owners. I thought the prices were holding up reasonably well!
Again, just my two pence worth, nothing more. Thanks for the market info, always an interesting read.
There's no doubt the F430 is a more advanced car than the 360 due to its evolution and development but that doesn't make it more desirable to potential owners. I thought the prices were holding up reasonably well!
Again, just my two pence worth, nothing more. Thanks for the market info, always an interesting read.
Perhaps I didn't explain my point well - 360 prices cannot continue to rise whilst F430 price stagnate or even fall. Otherwise we'll be at a point where the same money will buy you a good example of either model. If that ever occurred why would buyers choose a 360 over a F430?
As an F430 owner I'm hoping that prices will start to follow the trend the 360 has enjoyed but only time will tell.
As an F430 owner I'm hoping that prices will start to follow the trend the 360 has enjoyed but only time will tell.
Hi Aldous, I do understand completely and I agree with you. I'm sure there will continue to be a price gap between the 360 and F430, we just don't yet know what that gap will be. The 360 was a pivotal car, a game changer. Perhaps that'll mean more as time passes by. Ideally we'd have a car that drives like the F430 but looks like the 360, that'd be nice 
There's still a good £20-30k of clear air between comparable 360s and 430s isn't there?
I'm totally a casual observer to the marketplace but I would hazard a guess that the 360 is "enough" for that segment of the market who basically just want to get into a Ferrari, their first Ferrari quite possibly. It's a fairly substantial financial jump to the F430 from that - beyond the point where you're looking at a Ferrari as a possible supplement to your "normal" car, I guess.
Very interesting market dynamics in play though. I would feel that the 430 is in a good place though, for the reasons already outlined; the 458 is not in the same league price wise, and ever firming 360 prices can only underpin 430 prices, even if they don't rise dramatically?
I'm totally a casual observer to the marketplace but I would hazard a guess that the 360 is "enough" for that segment of the market who basically just want to get into a Ferrari, their first Ferrari quite possibly. It's a fairly substantial financial jump to the F430 from that - beyond the point where you're looking at a Ferrari as a possible supplement to your "normal" car, I guess.
Very interesting market dynamics in play though. I would feel that the 430 is in a good place though, for the reasons already outlined; the 458 is not in the same league price wise, and ever firming 360 prices can only underpin 430 prices, even if they don't rise dramatically?
Edited by Durzel on Thursday 2nd October 11:18
Voicey,
First thanks for the monthly updates and particularly the 360 one
IMHO I think the 360 will correct and is currently underpinned by the numbers available dropping month by month..
People with cars who may have wanted to sell are hanging on in a rising market, = numbers drop, prices firm.
Any nervousness could bring a glut to market and a rapid price fall.
Not as bad as some tipos but it will come.
430 numbers remain quite stable so not affected yet......
First thanks for the monthly updates and particularly the 360 one
IMHO I think the 360 will correct and is currently underpinned by the numbers available dropping month by month..
People with cars who may have wanted to sell are hanging on in a rising market, = numbers drop, prices firm.
Any nervousness could bring a glut to market and a rapid price fall.
Not as bad as some tipos but it will come.
430 numbers remain quite stable so not affected yet......
Edited by mike01606 on Thursday 2nd October 17:36
Kyodo said:
Hi Aldous, I do understand completely and I agree with you. I'm sure there will continue to be a price gap between the 360 and F430, we just don't yet know what that gap will be. The 360 was a pivotal car, a game changer. Perhaps that'll mean more as time passes by. Ideally we'd have a car that drives like the F430 but looks like the 360, that'd be nice
Isnt that called a 458? voicey said:
Perhaps I didn't explain my point well - 360 prices cannot continue to rise whilst F430 price stagnate or even fall. Otherwise we'll be at a point where the same money will buy you a good example of either model. If that ever occurred why would buyers choose a 360 over a F430?
As an F430 owner I'm hoping that prices will start to follow the trend the 360 has enjoyed but only time will tell.
Why not ? Look at 355 over 360 now, we could use the same analogy ?As an F430 owner I'm hoping that prices will start to follow the trend the 360 has enjoyed but only time will tell.
TISPKJ said:
Why not ? Look at 355 over 360 now, we could use the same analogy ?
Because the 360 and the F430 are pretty much the same cars. A better analogy would be 348 vs 355.If you're in the market for a 360 then the chances are you'd be a buyer for a F430 at the same money. Buyers, IMO, are looking at 355s for different reasons to buyers looking at 360s.
Not surprised at all by 360 prices rising, it's not about what the 430 worth compared to the 360, it's simply that the 360 is a much prettier design, it's simpler it's the first of the current generation of ferraris and I believe the right models will become very sought after.
FWIW I own one and I would not sell it for either an f430 or a 458, beauty in the ye of the beholder and all that, I could not afford a 458 anyway, Mike
FWIW I own one and I would not sell it for either an f430 or a 458, beauty in the ye of the beholder and all that, I could not afford a 458 anyway, Mike
I think all of the above points are valid. The two cars currently enjoy a healthy price gap between them and the data from Voicey shows a decent firming up of the F430 market, which must be reassuring for F430 owners.
Anyhow, we shouldn't dilute the F430 thread too much as the data it brings is welcome and appreciated!
Anyhow, we shouldn't dilute the F430 thread too much as the data it brings is welcome and appreciated!
It will be interesting to see if 360 prices ever overtake 430 like 355 has done with 360 recently.
It appears the £69995 430's sell but the others seem to be around a while longer, as you say the gap is slowly narrowing.
I still can't believe 355's are 50k 3 years ago they were 30-35 for a nice one, but I guess we could say that about a lot of F cars lately.
Where do you see the 599 going ?
South a touch but never below 60 ?
It appears the £69995 430's sell but the others seem to be around a while longer, as you say the gap is slowly narrowing.
I still can't believe 355's are 50k 3 years ago they were 30-35 for a nice one, but I guess we could say that about a lot of F cars lately.
Where do you see the 599 going ?
South a touch but never below 60 ?
TISPKJ said:
Where do you see the 599 going ?
South a touch but never below 60 ?
No idea to be honest. However, my new improved Algo is now collecting data on all Ferrari Tipos - when I find some time I will write a program that collates the data and publishes headline indices for each model.South a touch but never below 60 ?
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