F430 Market Watch

Author
Discussion

sealtt

3,091 posts

158 months

Saturday 25th October 2014
quotequote all
I bought a 430 spider from a ferrari main dealer. I intend to keep it a year using it a decent amount (for a second car) and then trade in. I expect to lose around 10%-15%.

There are certainly much cheaper ways of doing it, but I'd rather buy a car towards the low end of my budget and do it all through the main dealer, than buy a car at the top end of my budget doing it through independents or private. But that's just my preference, I care a lot about an easy transaction and good warranty and so put more of my budget towards that. Many people would rather use the budget for a more expensive car,

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Wednesday 19th November 2014
quotequote all
Please accept my apologies for the delay in updating the thread - I have been away travelling and have not had any meaningful access to the internet. I'm going to keep this short as I got off a 30 hour flight not that long ago and want to go back to bed.

Average prices have softened again, this time 0.83% which leaves the index at 98.57.





Here's the table with the cars priced under/over £80k (which seems to be a tipping point in this market).



Here's the main data:



Here's the plot of mileage vs price:





Here's the big table showing the movement in the market (click on the picture two times to enlarge):



I seem to recall there was some discussion on another thread about the price of manual cars vs F1. Here's the data:





Cheers,

Aldous Voice.

red_duke

800 posts

181 months

Thursday 20th November 2014
quotequote all
Welcome back Voicey. We missed ya!

Always interesting to see the hidden detail in your market watch posts. Like 31% of cars for sale have CCM brakes.

I was wondering if the left hookers were depressing values artificially but I see they only account for 2.4% of the cars on sale. Must be the usual seasonal softening of prices.

Appreciate the effort you put in to this. It tells an interesting story over time.

Edited by red_duke on Thursday 20th November 00:29

TISPKJ

3,648 posts

207 months

Thursday 20th November 2014
quotequote all
31% ? That sounds way out to me, I am looking for a nice 07/08 car and seems half the 08 reg cars don't have ceramic brakes.
Not disputing voiceys great work one bit but from a buyers perspective prices don't seem to have moved much at all

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Thursday 20th November 2014
quotequote all
TISPKJ said:
31% ? That sounds way out to me, I am looking for a nice 07/08 car and seems half the 08 reg cars don't have ceramic brakes.
I'll check the data tonight - I'm absolutely battered and was simply copy pasting the info.


TISPKJ said:
Not disputing voiceys great work one bit but from a buyers perspective prices don't seem to have moved much at all
Agreed, prices seem to be broadly static at the moment.

Kyodo

728 posts

124 months

Thursday 20th November 2014
quotequote all
TISPKJ said:
...from a buyers perspective prices don't seem to have moved much at all
That's a fair comment but this is simply gathered data. Would you expect to see an obvious change in pricing when we're talking just 0.8% across the board?

TISPKJ

3,648 posts

207 months

Thursday 20th November 2014
quotequote all
No your absolutely right the change is pretty much insignificant to the end number.

Voicey, great job so don't take as criticism, just I'm after a late car and an awful lot of the ones I look at don't seem to have ceramics ...... Maybe just me

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Friday 21st November 2014
quotequote all
red_duke said:
31% of cars for sale have CCM brakes.
I've been through the data and this is correct - 31% of the cars listed on PH at the start of this month were advertised with CCM brakes. Here's the breakdown by year:



I am scraping the entire advert text and then scanning that text for keywords. I'm confident I have got the allocation of brake type correct.

TISPKJ

3,648 posts

207 months

Friday 21st November 2014
quotequote all
Point taken :-)
I can see where I have based my comments from, I have been looking at 07 cars and more recently thinking maybe an 08
Maybe it's just the red ones :-)

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Friday 21st November 2014
quotequote all
TISPKJ said:
Maybe it's just the red ones :-)
Just for you - the breakdown for the red cars....


Kyodo

728 posts

124 months

Friday 21st November 2014
quotequote all
Great stuff Voicey, and much appreciated for many people here and on CS. Interesting reading.

TISPKJ

3,648 posts

207 months

Friday 21st November 2014
quotequote all
voicey said:
TISPKJ said:
Maybe it's just the red ones :-)
Just for you - the breakdown for the red cars....

Kick a man when his down why don't you :-)

roygarth

2,673 posts

248 months

Saturday 22nd November 2014
quotequote all
Thanks Voicey. I enjoy this stuff.

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Tuesday 2nd December 2014
quotequote all
Time for the final update for 2014. For the latest 360 price analysis and news of a shock rise in prices head over to Aldous Voice Blog.

Average F430 prices are broadly the same as last month - the index is currently at 98.61, up a paltry 0.04% MoM and a modest 2.26% over 2014.





The number of cars has fallen by 10 since last month with cars dropping out at all price points.



Here's the main data tables:



And here's the plot of mileages vs asking price:





Here's the big table where I try to show the movement in the market (click twice for a bigger view):



I am beginning to think that the narrowing of the gap between the 360 and F430 market is starting to make an entry level F430 a bit of a (relative) bargain. You need £55k to buy a decent 360 - add another £15k and one can buy a decent F430. With the additional performance on offer I think it is a no-brainer.

Finally, I like to make a small promotion. I spent today with Classic and Sports Car magazine - they were testing my F430 against an Audi R8 V8. The article is due to be published in early Jan so watch out for it!



Regards,

Aldous Voice

corinthian

217 posts

133 months

Wednesday 3rd December 2014
quotequote all
Superb thread, I'll look forward to the magazine.

Slickhillsy

1,772 posts

143 months

Wednesday 3rd December 2014
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Hey Voicey - good effort on the Stats, make interesting reading. Dont suppose you have numbers on the 430 Scuderia (Inc LHD)?

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Wednesday 3rd December 2014
quotequote all
Slickhillsy said:
Hey Voicey - good effort on the Stats, make interesting reading. Dont suppose you have numbers on the 430 Scuderia (Inc LHD)?
I did start a thread on V8 specials a while back but it was universally panned.

As it happens, my new and improved algo scrapes the prices of all Ferrari tipos so I have some data going back a few months. What were you looking for?

AmoCS

1,147 posts

219 months

Wednesday 3rd December 2014
quotequote all
Slickhillsy said:
Hey Voicey - good effort on the Stats, make interesting reading. Dont suppose you have numbers on the 430 Scuderia (Inc LHD)?
This might help your knowledge.

http://www.clubstradale.com/ferrari-430-scuderia-s...


WEHGuy

1,347 posts

173 months

Wednesday 3rd December 2014
quotequote all
Do you think February will be the best month to buy a 430?

johnnyreggae

2,935 posts

160 months

Wednesday 3rd December 2014
quotequote all
Why ? These figures have shown that any winter dip is basically a myth