F430 Market Watch

[voicey]

Another month, another lot of data....

For 360 prices head here. For 458 prices head over here.

Average asking prices have firmed up for the fourth month in a row - the AV430PI index now stands at 98.74 following a MoM increase of 1.35%. The driver behind this increase is asking prices of cars with sub 15k on the clock. Prices of cars with more mileage have barely moved. This behaviour is also reflected in 360 prices (see link to my blog above).

The number of cars for sale continues to rise but remains well below the numbers seen in the summer:



Here's a table of the data but up for different factors:



Here's the price vs mileage chart (note the outlier in the bottom left corner is LHD):



Here's the table of average theoretical asking prices for different mileages:



Finally, the last update on yellow spiders. Adz has sold his car and bought a beetle (in white!). If anyone wants a topless banana then I can recommend his car as he drives like a girl (only joking mate - it is a great car for someone).



Regards,

Aldous Voice

Edited by voicey on Sunday 2nd March 12:27

[voicey]

It's that time of the month again. Before I present the numbers, I'd like to provide a link to a new Buying Guide on my blog. It's a work in progress and I would welcome any feedback. Link.

For 360 prices head here. For 458 prices head over here.

The average F430 asking price has fallen slightly from last month, the index now stands at 98.05 after suffering a 0.69% MoM fall.



The number of cars offered for sale has increased by just one:



Here's the data cut up by the usual factors:



Here's the plot of asking price vs mileage (note the outlier in the bottom left hand corner is LHD):



If you compare this to the prior month's chart you will see the car with 409 miles on it (priced at £110k) has dropped out of the data. I'm thinking this has caused the small drop in average prices.

Here's the table of theoretical average asking prices for different mileages:



It's about this time in the post that I put in a table of yellow spiders - however there aren't any offered for sale at the moment. Whoever bought Adz's car has got a cherished example.

I thought it would be interesting to keep a track of the median mileage of cars on the market in order to give an idea of what sort of use this tipo is getting.



That's it for now. As usual please let me know if there's anything you want from the data.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

[voicey]

lamboman100 said:

Great data and blog, Voicey. Especially the average mileage stuff.

Do you scrape any other models? No biggie, just curious.

I collect 360, 430, 458 & FF prices - the links are at the top of my previous post (except for the FF as that's just for one person who thinking of buying one).

I was talking to my brother the other day who's a bit of a programming wizard and I think I'l going to rejig my algo to collect all prices across all models. As with most things though, I just need to find the time...

[voicey]

For 360 prices please head over here. 458 prices are here.

VOSA released their stats for 2013 recently so I thought we’d start with those. As you can see the amount of F430s on the road has been broadly static for a while. This is in contrast to the 360 which is declining – mainly due to export. In Australia you are allowed to personally import a car that was never sold new, which excludes the F430 and newer Ferraris.



Average asking prices have risen slightly since last month and have nearly erased the prior month’s fall. The index now stands at 98.70, up 2.36% in 2014.



For the second month in a row the number of cars offered for sale has increased by 1…



Here’s the data cut up by the usual factors:



Here’s the chart of asking prices plotted against mileages.



And here’s the table of computed average asking prices for different mileages.



The median mileage has barely moved but it does seem to be creeping up overall and is only 9,000 behind that of the 360s that are on the market today. Does this indicate that people are using the F430 more or have just the low mileage cars been sold?



That’s it for this month – as usual please do get in touch if you have any feedback.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

Edited by voicey on Thursday 1st May 21:05

[voicey]

I've done some more work with the VOSA numbers over on my blog: Link

[voicey]

WEHGuy said:

Is it possible to add a private sales and trade sales prices stat?

I have the split in my data - I will see what sort of analysis can be done tomorrow.

[voicey]

voicey said:

WEHGuy said:

Is it possible to add a private sales and trade sales prices stat?

I have the split in my data - I will see what sort of analysis can be done tomorrow.

Apologies for the delay in updating this query - I had an off on my bike the day after I wrote the reply above and was hospitalised for a little while. I'm getting back on my feet now and have been able to look at the data.

In short, I don't think there are enough private sales out there for any meaningful analysis to be done. Since the start of the year there have only been a handful of cars advertised outside of dealers.



Looking at the three privately advertised cars in a little detail - I pulled the private cars out of the data together with a couple of others that seem comparable on the face of things.



This very un-scientific analysis suggests a spread of £3-4k in asking prices between a private sale and a trade sale. In reality I believe the spread to be much greater - the vendor will know where the trade bids are and an informed buyer should know they are likely to agree a price a little above this. £3-4k is not the bid-offer spread for a exotic car dealer.

[voicey]

One more thing - if you're interested in numbers of F430 cars in the UK then check out my latest blog posting following my FOI request to the DVLA: Aldous Voice Blog

[voicey]

Steve7777 said:

voicey said:

One more thing - if you're interested in numbers of F430 cars in the UK then check out my latest blog posting following my FOI request to the DVLA: Aldous Voice Blog

That's a really interesting blog post. It's a shame nearly a quarter of UK 360s are now SORNed. How does that compare in the data to older models?

Sadly, the data is not split up for older models. They are lumped into the category "Ferrari - Other".

priley said:

Aldous, sorry to hear about the 'off'-sounds nasty. Good to hear you're on the mend.

Thanks.

[voicey]

Time for another update. For the latest 360 price analysis, including CAP data please head over here: Aldous Voice Blog.

Average prices have erased last months gain, falling 0.76% MoM. The index now stands at 97.95.



The number of cars offered for sale has dipped:



Here's the main data table (including the Private/Trade split):



Here's the chart of asking prices vs mileages:



And here are the theoretical average asking prices:



The median mileage has crept up again..



Finally, I'd like to highlight this private sale: Clicky. I know the owner and it is a very clean car and well spec'd car. If you're in the market for a F430 spider then you should look at this one.

That’s it for this month – as usual please do get in touch if you have any feedback.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

[voicey]

It's that time of the month again. Before getting to the numbers I would like to draw reader’s attention to my Database. I would be very grateful for any information on 360 or F430 cars in the UK.

For 360 prices and news of a price increase please head over here: Aldous Voice Blog

It's not just 360 prices that have firmed, average F430 asking prices have increased a healthy 1.35% MoM, making it 2.95% since the start of the year. The price index now stands at 99.27. Another month like this and we'll have reversed all the losses seen since I started collecting data.



The number of cars offered for sale has increased by one and remains broadly the same since March. Interestingly, there are no privately offered cars for sale at the moment - the three cars that were out there have dropped out of the data.



Here's the main data table:



Here's the plot of asking prices vs mileages. Note the outlier - a Spider with 53k on the clock at £80k. Surely this must be a mistake?!



Here's the table of theoretical asking prices for different mileages:



The median mileage hasn't moved much - I'm not sure it's worth keeping this table going forward.



That’s it for this month – as usual please do get in touch if you have any feedback.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

[voicey]

Thank you all for the kind words - I sometimes wonder if anyone reads the updates!

TISPKJ said:

Aldous, out of interest how many cars do you think sold last month ?
I see you reference one more v number for sale, do we know if any actually sell only in the main it seems the same old cars month after month in the adds ?

I don't have the data in front of me but will try and answer your question when I get back to my PC.

DavidCBevan said:

Thanks Aldous.

Great data, I will have to get in touch when I come to sell mine (hopefully not for a couple of years).

Mine is a 2005 430 F1 Spider Nero 20k miles so I guess you'd value it around £65-70k?

Again, I will look at the numbers for you ASAP.

Ardente said:

Aldous,

Thanks for this information, it makes fascinating reading. I would be interested in how the median mileage values trend over time, I assume that as the cars are out of production it will rise gradually, how gradually will indicate how much the cars are actually being used.

I agree, the median mileage is going to be a good indicator of how much these cars are being used. The median for F430s is hovering around 15k - if you take 2007 as the mid point in the production run then that equates to around 3,000 miles a year on average.

The 360 median is hovering around 23,000 which equates to 2,300 miles a year (taking 2002 as the mid point).

It seems that people are using F430s more than 360s (or they are clocking 360s more ).

[voicey]

TISPKJ said:

Aldous, out of interest how many cars do you think sold last month ?
I see you reference one more v number for sale, do we know if any actually sell only in the main it seems the same old cars month after month in the adds ?

This isn't that scientific but I've listed the cars by seller and split them up by bodystyle, year and gearbox. This separates most of them out to a single line. You can then see if they have been in the data from one month to the next (click on the table to see it at Thumbsnap and click again to enlarge it)

I make 47 appearing in both June and July's data with 28 dropping out and 29 coming onto the market. Obviously they'll be some withdrawn unsold but it should give us an idea of the level of activity. I will continue to show this every month.

DavidCBevan said:

Thanks Aldous.

Great data, I will have to get in touch when I come to sell mine (hopefully not for a couple of years).

Mine is a 2005 430 F1 Spider Nero 20k miles so I guess you'd value it around £65-70k?

The average asking price for 20k miles is currently £75k. Add some for the fact that it's a spider but take a little away because it's not red and is an early car. What colour is the interior? Assuming it is "market friendly" then asking high 60's as a private sale seems very reasonable to me.

Edited by voicey on Friday 4th July 21:41

[voicey]

cymario said:

Voicey.

Your excellent monthly updates will be much appreciated by me as I will be keeping a keen eye on values as i am hoping that they will remain strong.

Any views on values going forward will be greatly appreciated as I plan to keep the car for a minimum of 2 years. What % of my purchase price should I expect to get back? My car has 8,200 miles only and I plan to do around 2 - 2,500 miles per year in it.

Another thing that I would appreciate some help with is the stereo. my unit has a 'Navi' button and it has also come with a c.d. When pressing the 'Navi' button it asks for a software install. I put the c.d in and it goes through an install process which takes around 5 minutes, finally coming up with 'software successfully installed' but when I press the 'Navi' button again it just asks for the software install again.

Any ideas guys? should the car have the navigation?

Thanks

Thank you for your kind words.

At the moment the market (on average) is pricing a car with 13,200 at a discount of £5,138 to a car with 8,200 miles. I would say that if you can contain yourself to put on only 5,000 miles in the next two years then this factor alone wont prevent you from getting most of your money back.

The main factor will be where prices go in general. I am moderately bullish on the F430 in that I don't think they'll drop that much in price. F430's will always occupy the gap between the 360 and 458 - Ferrari have done a decent job of protecting the residuals of the 458 and for the time being I can't see them coming down much further in price. 360's are starting to become more popular so the market should look like this:

Model ----> Price Bracket
360 ------> 40-60k
F430 -----> 70-90k
438 ------> 100k +

I suppose the thing to watch out for will be to see how Ferrari price the 458 replacement. The F430 was "lucky" in that the 458 was a really big jump in money.

On the navigation - sorry can't help with that one!

[voicey]

cymario said:

Thank you for this. Fingers crossef!!Does anyone know what the vest way to drive the f1 gearbox in order to extend its life as long as possible?

red_duke said:

F1 gearbox longevity is more about proper servicing and regular oil changes than driving style. There's not much scope for pulling a flappy paddle incorrectly.

For extending the life of the gearbox (F1 & 6Spd) I would recommend annual gearbox oil and coolant changes.

To extend the life of the clutch it is imperative that it is set up properly by someone who knows what they are doing. Spending an hour or so on labour with a decent specialist can pay dividends in the long run. I would also add the advice of being trying to prevent clutch slip as much as possible - be really positive with the throttle when pulling off and avoid reversing!

[voicey]

cymario said:

Hi Guys,

My car has come with a 2 year Ferrari warranty. Has anyone here had any experiences with having to make a claim under such a warranty?

I have noticed an Advisory item on the M.O.T certificate, which the dealership had carried out a day before they delivered the car, which says 'slight movement on the n/s/r and o/s/r tie rod assemblys'.

Should I be concerned? as the dealership did not do anything with the Advisory.

Thanks

Not being rude, but this thread is for the discussion of the market for F430's. You seem to have a lot of questions about your new car and may get a better response if you start your own thread.

MODS: Any chance of splitting this discussion off please?

[voicey]

Ardente said:

Can anyone put some perspective on this....

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/f...

Since the middle of last year this was £79,950. I considered it last September but was underwealmed by the spec. Suddenly, a couple of weeks ago the same ad is edited to read £85.950.

???????????

They've obviously been reading this thread!

bigunit00 said:

I think I would be buying a car from a reputable Indy any day

http://www.nickcartwright.com/carsales/showroom/vi...

That car is sold, but I agree you're better off buying from a recognised specialist.

[voicey]

Apologies for the delay in getting this month's update out. For 360 prices and news of another price increase please head over here: Aldous Voice Blog

Average F430 prices have firmed for a second month in a row, gaining 0.68% MoM. The index is now 99.94 and is almost exactly at the level when I first started collecting the data a year ago.



The number of cars for sale has increased by 17. I see 27 cars drooping out of the population, with 44 new entrants to the market and 47 unsold (see the big table at the end of this post for details). Two cars are offered for sale privately.



Here's the data cut up in the usual way:



Here's the plot of prices vs mielages. Note that the outlier we saw last month has been joined by a similarly optimistically priced car with 54k on the clock.



Here are the theoretical average asking prices for different mileages:



Here's the table showing which cars have moved in or out of the data (click on the picture to go to Thumbsnap and click it again to see the detail):



It seems that prices rises of the older models are finally filtering through to the newer metal. 360's are on the up which can only mean F430 prices have to follow suit - who'd choose a 360 over an F430 for the same money?

Please let me know if you want anything in particular.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

[voicey]

red_duke said:

Wow, F1 gearboxes at an £8,000 premium over manuals. That gap seems to be widening.

It's strange isn't it. The internet is full of talk about how manual cars are sought after but the pricing doesn't reflect this. I guess if you desire a stick you are in luck!

red_duke said:

I can't see the average asking price for steel brake equipped cars as the Thumbsnap icon is obscuring the figure. Can you tell me what it is Aldous?

Click on the picture you numpty!

red_duke said:

Thanks for posting this info. I'll buy you a bear at Wilton House if you're going this year?

I'm not going to be at Wilton - my invite got dropped after I pulled out last year due to the crash. No doubt we'll meet soon so you can make mine a grizzly.

[voicey]

Juber said:

My ideal spec'd F430
http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/f...

Why do these wheels look so tiny and lost in them arches?

Some F430's have the suspension jacked up like that from the factory!

That particular car seems well priced and the vendor will sell for less than asking however they wont take the car for an inspection. Read into that what you will....