F430 Market Watch

[red_duke]

Do we think more 458s were manufactured than F430s ?

[Spiritual_Beggar]

voicey said:

If the 488 is priced at the same level as the 458 then that has to put further pressure on 458 prices in the near term. The good news for the 430 is that there's still a reasonable buffer between it and the 458, as well as support from the 360.

This got me thinking for reasons why prior models might become more desirable than it's successor. Please feel free to add/correct my thoughts...

355 vs 360 (Obviously this has been real for a while)
"Classic" looks
Pop up headlights
Last truly analogue V8

360 vs F430
Softer front end which is aging really well
Nicer rear lights
Last of the dino engine
Last (practically) analogue V8

F430 vs 458
Erm, can't really think of anything. Perhaps it'll age better like the 360 did...

458 vs 488
Last of the mid-engined N/A V8's

Only thing I can think of with the F430 vs 458 is that the F430 is most likely to be the last 'Manual' car Ferrari made.

[voicey]

red_duke said:

Do we think more 458s were manufactured than F430s ?

I don't think so. Ferrari have actually throttled supply during the last 5 years.

Spiritual_Beggar said:

Only thing I can think of with the F430 vs 458 is that the F430 is most likely to be the last 'Manual' car Ferrari made.

Very good point.

Update list:

355 vs 360 (Obviously this has been real for a while)
"Classic" looks
Pop up headlights
Last truly analogue V8
Less produced

360 vs F430
Softer front end which is aging really well
Nicer rear lights
Last of the dino engine
Last (practically) analogue V8

F430 vs 458
Last V8 Ferrari available with a manual gearbox

458 vs 488
Last of the mid-engined N/A V8's

[jw673]

Spiritual_Beggar said:

Only thing I can think of with the F430 vs 458 is that the F430 is most likely to be the last 'Manual' car Ferrari made.

Whilst I accept in manual form they're a (very) rare beast, would that not be the California?

voicey said:

F430 vs 458
Last mid-engined V8 Ferrari available with a manual gearbox

[voicey]

A pendant's worst nightmare - making an obvious mistake and getting called out on it....

Updated list:

355 vs 360 (Obviously this has been real for a while)
"Classic" looks
Pop up headlights
Last truly analogue V8
Less produced

360 vs F430
Softer front end which is aging really well
Nicer rear lights
Last of the dino engine
Last (practically) analogue V8

F430 vs 458
Last mid engined V8 Ferrari available with a manual gearbox

458 vs 488
Last of the mid-engined N/A V8's

[voicey]

Right - apologies for the delay in getting this months update posted. I'm mega busy and am only going to be able to paste in the pictures right now - if I take any longer I'm likely to be killed by my other half. Hopefully I'll still be alive next week to add some commentary....

What I will say is that I think the F430 market is starting to warm up. I know of a number of dealers looking for stock and there are some strong trade bids floating around. With any luck (as I'm long) prices will start to climb before the 360 overtakes!

[red_duke]

Thanks as always Aldous.

As you seem to be involved with some transactions, do you have a sense of how close selling prices are to asking prices?

[voicey]

red_duke said:

Thanks as always Aldous.

As you seem to be involved with some transactions, do you have a sense of how close selling prices are to asking prices?

Sorry I missed your question mate - it was pointed out to me last night over beers.

Discounts to asking prices are variable - main dealers are very reluctant to negotiate on price and are confident of selling at current levels. They are also bidding hard for good stock.

However, I do know of people getting good discounts offered on the cars that seem to be sticking around a bit (usually with the non-specialist independent dealers). Whether you'd want to buy one of these cars is another matter...

I'll bet someone comes along now and tells us they got £20k off their F430 from a main dealer last week!

[XTD264]

voicey said:

If the 488 is priced at the same level as the 458 then that has to put further pressure on 458 prices in the near term. The good news for the 430 is that there's still a reasonable buffer between it and the 458, as well as support from the 360.

This got me thinking for reasons why prior models might become more desirable than it's successor. Please feel free to add/correct my thoughts...

355 vs 360 (Obviously this has been real for a while)
"Classic" looks
Pop up headlights
Last truly analogue V8

360 vs F430
Softer front end which is aging really well
Nicer rear lights
Last of the dino engine
Last (practically) analogue V8

F430 vs 458
Erm, can't really think of anything. Perhaps it'll age better like the 360 did...

458 vs 488
Last of the mid-engined N/A V8's

One thing in favour of the F430 over the 458 is its looks. It is the last model with a more classic shape compared to the more modern styled 458. So, if you prefer the round shapes by the 60-ies to 80-ies, it may well uphold a really good market value. I though admit that the 458 Speciale is very neat, by its track-day looks, compared to the rather squarish standard 458. Then, the 458 always will be a faster car though, and with a vast better fuel effeciency...

[XTD264]

Maybe of just a hypotethic interest, here's the F430 market in Sweden of today. In general a bit lower priced than UK. The prices shows no correlation between year, mileage and spec's. In general, swedish cars are higher spec'd than typical in Europe. Most always F1's and CCM's, most often extra carbon fibre and carbon sport seats. There is a few very low priced cars, however they have a rather scarce spec then.

Currency conversion 1 SEK sold for 0,08 GBP. 1 mile is 1,6 km, e.g. 5000 km is 3,1K.

http://www.blocket.se/hela_sverige?q=ferrari+f430&...

Edited by XTD264 on Tuesday 2nd June 09:50

[voicey]

Sorry for the delay in posting these up but I have a lot going on right now.

For news of more 360 price increases head over to my blog here: http://aldousvoice.com/2015/06/01/ferrari-360-mark...

F430 prices have increased 2.47% MoM which leaves the price index at 103.70. I personally think that the F430 market is turning a corner and prices are going to climb as people realise what a relative bargain the car offers when compared to other offerings.





Activity is robust - I see 29 cars sold and 26 new entrants to the market. The vast majority of cars sold were offered at £70k or less but a couple of cars were sold with asking prices between £90-£100k and a further 2 above £100k.



A lot of the cheaper cars have been sold and not replaced - this means that this is the first time I have reported more cars for sale over £80k than below. The number of cars for sale is at it's lowest since (my) records began.



Here's the main data table:



And here's the mileage data:





Here's the chart that was requested a while back...



Finally, here's the big table showing the cars in and out of this month's data.



That's it - as usual please drop me a line if you want anything in particular.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

[red_duke]

Wow. Average price for a manual transmission exceeding that of the F1. Didn't see that coming!

Thanks for the update Aldous. Always a good read.

[Fattrader]

Very interesting statistics coming through. Year on year sales looks to show a different trend of sales growth going into the summer. Clearing out the lower priced stock will cause a natural push higher. Whether there is a non market variable in there (roll by dealers).

The price versus mile chart is showing a trend moving North and West. When I bought my F430 I thought exactly what you stated, that is a lot of car for the money when you compare to what is going on across the market. Think I managed to sneak in just before the recent upturn as per this data.

Edited by Fattrader on Wednesday 3rd June 16:42

[GT Two]

Really interesting for a potential buyer.

Im surprised that there are more spiders for sale currently.

I need a red coupe with ceramics in my life!

[Nano2nd]

surely the best long term ownership prospect is:

non red (rarer colours)
manual (no outdated auto)
coupe (best drivers car & no expensive roof to worry about)
steel brakes (will CCM be difficult to source as the car ages and as not much aftermarket emerges?)

thoughts?

[markst]

you want to be careful using data from Jperformance - he might have 1 car - but uses old ads to get more interest.

nice to see my manual going up in value !

Edited by markst on Wednesday 3rd June 19:32

[GT Two]

markst said:

you want to be careful using data from Jperformance - he might have 1 car - but uses old ads to get more interest.

nice to see my manual going up in value !

Edited by markst on Wednesday 3rd June 19:32

They are all at it, Ive been ringing around to try and buy a car. Ads being moved up PH every day but most of the cars aren't there.

[voicey]

GT Two said:

Im surprised that there are more spiders for sale currently.

Lots of coupes are being exported to hot RHD-only countries like Malaysia and Singapore (it is too hot out there for a drop top).

Nano2nd said:

surely the best long term ownership prospect is:

non red (rarer colours)
manual (no outdated auto)
coupe (best drivers car & no expensive roof to worry about)
steel brakes (will CCM be difficult to source as the car ages and as not much aftermarket emerges?)

thoughts?

If the 430 follows the 360 then a manual coupe will be the most desirable. The lines of the coupe look better (IMO) and there is no complex (read expensive to fix) F1 system or roof.

markst said:

you want to be careful using data from Jperformance - he might have 1 car - but uses old ads to get more interest.

It's a dilemma that I am aware of but short of calling up every ad I'm not sure how to filter the false adverts out. The fact that there is a reasonably large data set helps negate the impact of them.

Edited by voicey on Thursday 4th June 09:03

[jtremlett]

red_duke said:

Do we think more 458s were manufactured than F430s ?

I know this question was asked a good while ago but...

Something over 2000 F430s delivered new to the UK in all variants (excluding Challenge cars). About 1500 458s delivered new to the UK (again, excluding Challenge cars) to the end of 2014. I guess somewhere between 100 and 150 458 deliveries to add for 2015 but we'll see. Certainly there won't be another 500 cars delivered so ultimately the answer to the question is no. Fewer 458s than F430s - for the UK at least.

Jonathan

[red_duke]

jtremlett said:

... so ultimately the answer to the question is no. Fewer 458s than F430s - for the UK at least.

Jonathan

Thanks for the insight JT!

I guess 458 production coincided with the recession which led to fewer orders.