F430 Market Watch

Author
Discussion

RamboLambo

4,843 posts

170 months

Saturday 6th June 2015
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I'm gobsmacked if there are less 458's than F430's as there seems like an abundance of 458's constantly advertised and even more not but still for sale.
With some of them sat for years literally it does make me wonder how the dealers survive with this we will stick it out until we get a silly price off a customer advertising/marketing strategy.
I know you don't want to be heavily discounting and distress selling as that will harm the brand but I can't see how advertised prices can in anyway reflect transaction prices.

I kind of get but don't get the premiums on limited edition stuff like 430 Scuderia but run of the mill cars which are plentiful in supply are still silly money really.

Both Ferrari and Porsche prices are insane at the moment so I wonder what will go the same way next scratchchin

Kyodo

728 posts

124 months

Saturday 6th June 2015
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It's quite funny that production numbers don't always reflect what we see on the roads. I live close to Windsor and Ferrari's seen on the road are a (relatively) normal sight. Perhaps not a daily occurrence but pretty close if you're out and about. Regardless of numbers produced and in order of the most commonly seen, I tend to find it's F430, 458, 355, California. After that a smattering of 308GT4/348/360/F12. I find it a little odd that I see more 355's than 360's and that the 308 & 328 seems to have all but disappeared from my radar whilst out on my travels.

Just my two pence worth, nothing more smile

gcpeters

959 posts

232 months

Sunday 7th June 2015
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voicey said:
It's a dilemma that I am aware of but short of calling up every ad I'm not sure how to filter the false adverts out. The fact that there is a reasonably large data set helps negate the impact of them.


Edited by voicey on Thursday 4th June 09:03
You still have the hydraulic system for the e-diff though I believe?


voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Monday 8th June 2015
quotequote all
gcpeters said:
voicey said:
It's a dilemma that I am aware of but short of calling up every ad I'm not sure how to filter the false adverts out. The fact that there is a reasonably large data set helps negate the impact of them.


Edited by voicey on Thursday 4th June 09:03
You still have the hydraulic system for the e-diff though I believe?
I guess you were replying to this??

voicey said:
If the 430 follows the 360 then a manual coupe will be the most desirable. The lines of the coupe look better (IMO) and there is no complex (read expensive to fix) F1 system or roof.
Yes, there is the hydraulic controlled E-Diff fitted to all F430s.

gcpeters

959 posts

232 months

Monday 8th June 2015
quotequote all
voicey said:
gcpeters said:
voicey said:
It's a dilemma that I am aware of but short of calling up every ad I'm not sure how to filter the false adverts out. The fact that there is a reasonably large data set helps negate the impact of them.


Edited by voicey on Thursday 4th June 09:03
You still have the hydraulic system for the e-diff though I believe?
I guess you were replying to this??


voicey said:
If the 430 follows the 360 then a manual coupe will be the most desirable. The lines of the coupe look better (IMO) and there is no complex (read expensive to fix) F1 system or roof.
Yes, there is the hydraulic controlled E-Diff fitted to all F430s.
ugh.... yes I was indeed! Thanks!

red_duke

800 posts

181 months

Saturday 20th June 2015
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Hey Aldous!

Some F430s seems to be selling within days of being advertised. Does your data capture these cars or do you only scrape details once a month?

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Saturday 20th June 2015
quotequote all
This market watch only looks from the 1st of one month to the 1st of the next month. It wont capture cars that are advertised and sold between these dates.

If I was doing this as a commercial enterprise I'd be scraping and updating the data daily, but I'm not - sorry!

red_duke

800 posts

181 months

Saturday 20th June 2015
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Fair enough. The HR Owen car that just sold circa £105,000 would have made an interesting impact on the monthly index though.

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Friday 3rd July 2015
quotequote all
Once again I must apologise for the tardiness of this months update - I have a lot going on with my day job alongside running around helping people out with their cars in the evenings and weekends.

For 360 prices please head over here: Aldous Voice Blog

I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here and call this point in time as the start of a bull run for the F430. Prices has been relatively static for a while amid relentless appreciation of other tipos. It has got to the point where some low mileage 360s are advertised for the same price as the equivalent F430 (spec for spec). At some point the market will wake up to what a (relative) bargain the F430 is.

Average asking prices have increased 2.46% over the last month - that marks a 7% rise since the start of the year. The price index now stands at 106.25.





Activity looks to be robust with 24 cars dropping out the data (presumably sold) and 34 cars replacing them. The majority of sales are occurring in the £80-90k bracket. It is also interesting to note the number of cars for sale at £100k or over (and I'm including cars at £99,xxx) has risen from 4 to 7.



The number of cars offered for sale has picked up a touch but the split around the £80k point remains biased towards the top of the market.



Here's the big table:



And here's the plot of mileage vs price. The data fits around the curve very well and there are few outliers.



Average asking prices for different mileages:



The chart of sold volumes vs price index:



And here's the big table showing which cars are in and out of the data:



That's it for now - please let me know if you want anything else.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

purpleperil

1,212 posts

284 months

Friday 3rd July 2015
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Think you're not too far wrong Aldous. Just spotted my old one in the classifieds. Has covered a mere 418 miles since sale in October and acquired a very healthy 5 figure price rise. They'll hopefully start to provide a firm floor to support the 458 wink

Nano2nd

3,426 posts

256 months

Wednesday 8th July 2015
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lets hope your right on the bull run Aldous, great for us owners, especially as i'm thinking about selling!

superpippo

182 posts

202 months

Thursday 9th July 2015
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So basically F430 prices are rising ? How's that possible ?

Nano2nd

3,426 posts

256 months

Friday 10th July 2015
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superpippo said:
So basically F430 prices are rising ? How's that possible ?
supply and demand?

AtlantisWeb

358 posts

170 months

Friday 10th July 2015
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You can still buy a good 430 for the same price as a 328. It won't last long though. Buy now, while the prices are reasonable.

sealtt

3,091 posts

158 months

Sunday 12th July 2015
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Interestingly I sold around in line with these figures this month. Sold this week, around 10% less than I advertised for, seemed fair enough given private sale.

The prices are going up, but you know I still think that the F430 is a heck of a car for the money. Modern enough to absolutely look the part, have great performance and still be relatively reliable and easy to maintain. But old enough to deliver plenty of bang for your buck and have matured a bit with it's own unique character. I think the style is really iconic 'Ferrari Sports car' and is ageing very nicely. Great car, well worth the money and then some in my opinion. Especially when you consider buying a new range rover will set you back about the same £££!!!!!

Thanks for producing these figures, as always absolute fascinating to look at! More rational than the financial markets at least wink

superpippo

182 posts

202 months

Sunday 12th July 2015
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The reason I'm interested is because I'm evaluating trading my 328 with a 430.
I've been offered a straight trade without additional cash.
While I quite like the 430, I'm concerned I will give a car that I both like and is appreciating and (maybe) will continue to do so. Not so sure what will happen to the 430, but there are way too many around and is way too recent to really appreciate. Also, I love my 328 smile

Hewbie

1,725 posts

180 months

Thursday 16th July 2015
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i just sold a LHD nero 430 for 58k, i had my drink out of it and passed on the savings!
ive just advertised a 599 i am about to pick up for 72995!

BobTurner

395 posts

210 months

Friday 17th July 2015
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It's still on mobile.de btw hehe

Amazing value if the service is included by the vendor

So bought at what, 58 presumably; and now a little nudge up to 75 after your post above hehe

Edited by BobTurner on Saturday 18th July 20:11

Hewbie

1,725 posts

180 months

Monday 20th July 2015
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what a bargain eh bob! still cheapest in the UK fully inspected and serviced! shes a blinder!

SirSagalot

176 posts

181 months

Monday 20th July 2015
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Thanks for taking the time to prepare all this information. Fascinating stuff. Had my Spider for two years now and its nearly at the price I paid. That rarely happens to me! Very few Rosso's out there for sale at the moment.