F430 Market Watch

Author
Discussion

red_duke

800 posts

181 months

Wednesday 2nd December 2015
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So, has the F430 market crashed and burned this month Voicey?

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Thursday 3rd December 2015
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The bottom hasn't fallen out of the market, yet. I apologise for the delay in updating you all but clients have to take a priority.

For the latest on 360 prices please head over to the Aldous Voice Blog.

Ferrari F430 prices have actually softened a touch over the last month - average prices fell 1.04% which leaves the price index at 111.34.

Another headline is that F430 prices have increased 12% during 2015.





The number of cars for sale has dropped back down but the spread of prices around the £80k mark remains at 80:20.



Big table:



Price vs mileage:





The premium for a manual car is around £12k - interestingly this is bang in line with the 360 manual which attracts a £10k premium.





The other charts/tables:







As usual, please do get in touch if you have any questions or special requests.

Aldous Voice.

red_duke

800 posts

181 months

Thursday 3rd December 2015
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The 1.04% dip is presumably down to seasonal variation. Thanks for the update Aldous!

ZeroH

2,905 posts

189 months

Saturday 5th December 2015
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Great thread.

Not sure if the data can be mined but would be interesting to know if from a pure return perspective, would it have been better to put money (assume same price point) into a late model (08) fully optioned (race seats/carbon etc) LHD car or a much higher miles early (05) basic spec RHD car?

More than ever it's a current consideration as RHD prices have soared

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Friday 1st January 2016
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ZeroH said:
Great thread.

Not sure if the data can be mined but would be interesting to know if from a pure return perspective, would it have been better to put money (assume same price point) into a late model (08) fully optioned (race seats/carbon etc) LHD car or a much higher miles early (05) basic spec RHD car?

More than ever it's a current consideration as RHD prices have soared
I'm sorry, I missed this post. I'll try and dig out some data....

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Friday 1st January 2016
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Happy new year! For the latest on 360 prices please head over to the Aldous Voice Blog.

F430 prices continue to be buoyant - the average asking price has increased by a generous 3.73% over the last month. The price index now stands at 115.19 which represents a 20% increase of the last two years.





This increase in prices has been driven by a glut of new cars at the top of the market. Last month there were 5 cars prices at £100k or more (not including those at £99,999). This month that number has more than doubled to 11 and includes the incredibly priced spider at Peter Jarvis. A car like this has to be on SoR which makes me wonder where a bonafide trade bid would be...

Big table:



Price vs Mileage:





Manual cars are still attracting a premium however the low-mileage F1 cars at the top of the market have played havoc with the stats. I believe that like-for-like, a manual car is at least £10k more expensive than the F1.





The other charts/tables:







As usual, please do get in touch if you have any questions or special requests.

Aldous Voice.

red_duke

800 posts

181 months

Saturday 2nd January 2016
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Thanks for the update Aldous. It would appear the bulk of the 20% price increase has occurred in the last 12 months. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues into 2016.

Are you contemplating a jump to the 458 any time soon?

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Saturday 2nd January 2016
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red_duke said:
Thanks for the update Aldous. It would appear the bulk of the 20% price increase has occurred in the last 12 months. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues into 2016.

Are you contemplating a jump to the 458 any time soon?
It would make sense for F430 owners to think about making the jump to a 458 as the gap narrows. However, I have some other projects in the pipeline that will require funding so I personally can'y justify the spend right now.

anonymous-user

54 months

Sunday 3rd January 2016
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Many thanks for the update Aldous. Certainly makes for comforting reading. While I recognise the leap forward that the 458 was, l'm not sure swapping an appreciating asset for a depreciating one makes sense right now. Do you have a view on 458 values at the moment, maybe it's time to switch from tracking 360/430 data to 430/458 ..? wink

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Monday 4th January 2016
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thecook101 said:
Many thanks for the update Aldous. Certainly makes for comforting reading. While I recognise the leap forward that the 458 was, l'm not sure swapping an appreciating asset for a depreciating one makes sense right now. Do you have a view on 458 values at the moment, maybe it's time to switch from tracking 360/430 data to 430/458 ..? wink
I have the data - in fact, I have data on all Ferrari tipos as well as Maserati, Lamborghini and McLaren. However, I just don't have the time to do much with it these days. Sorry!

allister

564 posts

147 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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Thanks for taking time out of your day to produce this for us all Voicey - Always great to see. Allister

willfinch36

599 posts

158 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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As per email, thanks for all this.

I was lucky enough to buy the *real* manual one from Brooklands smile

allister

564 posts

147 months

Friday 15th January 2016
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Asking prices for Manuals still rising guys!!

http://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/2016...

LY99

152 posts

188 months

Sunday 17th January 2016
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Hi Voicey

Thanks for the interesting updates as always.

Any idea what the production figure split is between rosso corsa and rosso scuderia? I'm beginning to think my dads RHD manual coupe in Scuderia is a rare spec as I've not seen any others for sale

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Sunday 17th January 2016
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LY99 said:
Hi Voicey

Thanks for the interesting updates as always.

Any idea what the production figure split is between rosso corsa and rosso scuderia? I'm beginning to think my dads RHD manual coupe in Scuderia is a rare spec as I've not seen any others for sale
That's a question for JT - I'm sure he'll be along at some point.

jtremlett

1,375 posts

222 months

Sunday 17th January 2016
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LY99 said:
...Any idea what the production figure split is between rosso corsa and rosso scuderia? I'm beginning to think my dads RHD manual coupe in Scuderia is a rare spec as I've not seen any others for sale
I don't have details of every UK F430 (I have about 80% of the total) and I don't have the Factory colour for all the cars that I do have listed. With that proviso, I know of 58 UK RHD F430 Berlinettas in Rosso Scuderia of which four are manual.

Of the UK RHD F430 Berlinettas I know of, this is the exterior colour split:
Black - 21.2%
Blue - 2.4%
Grey - 11.0%
Light Blue - 0.6%
Red - 60.4%
Silver - 1.7%
White - 1.3%
Yellow - 1.5%

Jonathan

ZeroH

2,905 posts

189 months

Sunday 31st January 2016
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Just revisiting January's data... Please correct me Aldous but I am assuming the algo picks up on words in adverts... Which would explain the 14 manuals for sale... Lots of F1 cars are advertised as "semi-manual" which must distort the true manual data field
... In fact, at the turn of the year, I was aware of only 3 manuals for sale at an average price of £113k (£100-£120k range) excluding a spider which more recently sold at just under £130k






Edited by ZeroH on Tuesday 2nd February 01:18

th14

4 posts

129 months

Tuesday 2nd February 2016
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ZeroH, I agree with your assessment. Many advertisers seem to advertise with F1 in the model description but put manual in the gearbox type. How an automated data scrape would sort that out heaven only knows. Guess we'll have to leave that to Aldous!

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Tuesday 2nd February 2016
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Average F430 asking prices have risen again, this time by 0.75% over the last month. This leaves the price index at 116.37. Now although prices have been on the rise, they are hardly knocking on the door of the 458 and the rise has lagged considerably behind the 360 (the 360 index is at 157, both started about the same time). See more here.





The modest increase in prices has been driven by a couple of additions at the top end - there are now 13 cars offered for sale in excess of £100k (not including £99,999). Talking to both buyers and sellers it seems that demand remains strong despite the time of year. I wonder how things will look once we get a bout of good weather?

Here's the big table:



Price vs mileage:





Now I must apologise for the inaccurate representation of the manual vs F1 delta. The algo isn't perfect and neither are vendors when submitting their adverts. Given it is such an important factor now I will now eyeball all adverts that are detected as manual. You wont be surprised to learn that the premium for a gated car is substantial.





Here are your other charts:







As usual, please do get in touch if you have any questions or special requests.

Aldous Voice.

RamboLambo

4,843 posts

170 months

Tuesday 2nd February 2016
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Love you to start doing this sort of thing on McLaren 12C.

I think it will be very interesting reading over the next 18 months. Everyone must have spotted the trend on this forum alone