F430 Market Watch
Discussion
Time for another update. For news on the 360 market please head of here: Aldous Voice Ferrari Blog.
Average F430 asking prices have softened 0.25% since last month. The index is now 99.69, up 1.45% since a year ago.
The number of cars for sale is broadly the same as the prior month. It is worth noting that there are roughly half the number of 360's for sale at the moment. There are still two private sales out there and I see 29 cars dropping out of the data. There are 26 new entrants to the market this month and 62 unsold.
Here is the data cut up in the usual way:
Here's the plot of mileages vs asking price. Note that the two £80k cars with intergalatic mileages remain unsold.
Here are the theoretical average asking prices for given mileages:
And here's the big table where I try and capture the sold/unsold/new cars. To see it properly click on it to go to Thumbsnap and click again to zoom in.
Finally, I have been thinking about the overlap between the 360 and F430 markets. The 360 has enjoyed a very buoyant year and prices have been encroaching on the F430 for a while now. I have plotted price vs mileage for 360's over £60k and F430's below £75k. I was expecting more of an overlap but, aside from the two ludicrously priced 360's, the markets remain pretty divided.
That's it for this month. As usual, please let me know if you want anything in particular.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Average F430 asking prices have softened 0.25% since last month. The index is now 99.69, up 1.45% since a year ago.
The number of cars for sale is broadly the same as the prior month. It is worth noting that there are roughly half the number of 360's for sale at the moment. There are still two private sales out there and I see 29 cars dropping out of the data. There are 26 new entrants to the market this month and 62 unsold.
Here is the data cut up in the usual way:
Here's the plot of mileages vs asking price. Note that the two £80k cars with intergalatic mileages remain unsold.
Here are the theoretical average asking prices for given mileages:
And here's the big table where I try and capture the sold/unsold/new cars. To see it properly click on it to go to Thumbsnap and click again to zoom in.
Finally, I have been thinking about the overlap between the 360 and F430 markets. The 360 has enjoyed a very buoyant year and prices have been encroaching on the F430 for a while now. I have plotted price vs mileage for 360's over £60k and F430's below £75k. I was expecting more of an overlap but, aside from the two ludicrously priced 360's, the markets remain pretty divided.
That's it for this month. As usual, please let me know if you want anything in particular.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
I was discussing F1 vs manual the other day. Ferrari is all about providing the best high performance technology in road cars. If you drive these cars like they are supposed to be driven (ie: quickly) then I can't see reasons for the hate of the F1 box - it is much better then a manual shift.
Time for another update. For news of yet another rise in 360 prices head over to the Aldous Voice Blog.
Average F430 asking prices have slipped once again, this time 0.29% from the prior month. This brings the index to 99.40.
Here's the evolution of the average asking prices over time:
To be honest, I'm very surprised by the lack of buoyancy in this market. The 360 has enjoyed a stellar year and I was expecting them to be pushing up the F430. There is room at the top end since you cannot buy a 458 Italia for less than £140k, yet the F430 doesn't seem to be able to get above the £100k level. I think that either the 360 is due a minor correction or there will be a jump in F430 prices. There has to be as who in their right mind would spend similar money on a 360 over a F430?
Anyway, back to the data. The number of cars for sale has dropped a touch (85 vs 91 last month). Activity seems strong with 29 cars dropping out of the data (presumably sold) and 26 new entrants to the market.
Here are the main tables (note my new and improved algorithm is now differentiating between LHD and RHD cars).
Here is the plot of price vs mileages:
And here are the average asking prices for various mileages:
My new program allows me to quickly prepare a 2-factor analysis of price vs mileages vs another factor. To demonstrate I have shown the brake type - as you can see CCM commands a circa £5k premium.
Finally, here's the big table braking down the change in population from one month to the other (click on the pic to go to Thumbsnap and click it again to zoom in).
That's it for this month. As usual, please let me know if you want anything in particular.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Average F430 asking prices have slipped once again, this time 0.29% from the prior month. This brings the index to 99.40.
Here's the evolution of the average asking prices over time:
To be honest, I'm very surprised by the lack of buoyancy in this market. The 360 has enjoyed a stellar year and I was expecting them to be pushing up the F430. There is room at the top end since you cannot buy a 458 Italia for less than £140k, yet the F430 doesn't seem to be able to get above the £100k level. I think that either the 360 is due a minor correction or there will be a jump in F430 prices. There has to be as who in their right mind would spend similar money on a 360 over a F430?
Anyway, back to the data. The number of cars for sale has dropped a touch (85 vs 91 last month). Activity seems strong with 29 cars dropping out of the data (presumably sold) and 26 new entrants to the market.
Here are the main tables (note my new and improved algorithm is now differentiating between LHD and RHD cars).
Here is the plot of price vs mileages:
And here are the average asking prices for various mileages:
My new program allows me to quickly prepare a 2-factor analysis of price vs mileages vs another factor. To demonstrate I have shown the brake type - as you can see CCM commands a circa £5k premium.
Finally, here's the big table braking down the change in population from one month to the other (click on the pic to go to Thumbsnap and click it again to zoom in).
That's it for this month. As usual, please let me know if you want anything in particular.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Perhaps I didn't explain my point well - 360 prices cannot continue to rise whilst F430 price stagnate or even fall. Otherwise we'll be at a point where the same money will buy you a good example of either model. If that ever occurred why would buyers choose a 360 over a F430?
As an F430 owner I'm hoping that prices will start to follow the trend the 360 has enjoyed but only time will tell.
As an F430 owner I'm hoping that prices will start to follow the trend the 360 has enjoyed but only time will tell.
TISPKJ said:
Why not ? Look at 355 over 360 now, we could use the same analogy ?
Because the 360 and the F430 are pretty much the same cars. A better analogy would be 348 vs 355.If you're in the market for a 360 then the chances are you'd be a buyer for a F430 at the same money. Buyers, IMO, are looking at 355s for different reasons to buyers looking at 360s.
TISPKJ said:
Where do you see the 599 going ?
South a touch but never below 60 ?
No idea to be honest. However, my new improved Algo is now collecting data on all Ferrari Tipos - when I find some time I will write a program that collates the data and publishes headline indices for each model.South a touch but never below 60 ?
There is a CCB wear algorithm computed in the instrument ECU based on braking intensity that'll give you a good idea of the type of use the brakes have had. Your PPI person should have an SD3 or similar.
I've just been called into a meeting - will respond to the rest of your post later...
I've just been called into a meeting - will respond to the rest of your post later...
In terms of your spec, Red and Black are the two most common colours so you should be able to find a car. I'm yet to see a F430 without shields and many have the carbon driving zone. The lower carbon zone is much less common, as are parking sensors. The yellow tach is standard I think. The Nav isn't that good to honest so I wouldn't worry about that.
My advice would be to start looking at cars and devise a strategy to weed out the cr@p - there are a lot of cars out there I wouldn't want to own.
For a buyers guide there's mine here: http://aldousvoice.com/ferrari-360-f430-buying-gui... Evo also did one (I think have a scan of it somewhere if you can't find it.)
My advice would be to start looking at cars and devise a strategy to weed out the cr@p - there are a lot of cars out there I wouldn't want to own.
For a buyers guide there's mine here: http://aldousvoice.com/ferrari-360-f430-buying-gui... Evo also did one (I think have a scan of it somewhere if you can't find it.)
I am going travelling for a month from the 22nd October and will not be able to publish my monthly market watch update on time. Please be rest assured that I will scrape the prices and am committed to providing the update as soon as I get back. Please also note that I will not be responding to any emails whilst I am away.
Please accept my apologies for the delay in updating the thread - I have been away travelling and have not had any meaningful access to the internet. I'm going to keep this short as I got off a 30 hour flight not that long ago and want to go back to bed.
Average prices have softened again, this time 0.83% which leaves the index at 98.57.
Here's the table with the cars priced under/over £80k (which seems to be a tipping point in this market).
Here's the main data:
Here's the plot of mileage vs price:
Here's the big table showing the movement in the market (click on the picture two times to enlarge):
I seem to recall there was some discussion on another thread about the price of manual cars vs F1. Here's the data:
Cheers,
Aldous Voice.
Average prices have softened again, this time 0.83% which leaves the index at 98.57.
Here's the table with the cars priced under/over £80k (which seems to be a tipping point in this market).
Here's the main data:
Here's the plot of mileage vs price:
Here's the big table showing the movement in the market (click on the picture two times to enlarge):
I seem to recall there was some discussion on another thread about the price of manual cars vs F1. Here's the data:
Cheers,
Aldous Voice.
TISPKJ said:
31% ? That sounds way out to me, I am looking for a nice 07/08 car and seems half the 08 reg cars don't have ceramic brakes.
I'll check the data tonight - I'm absolutely battered and was simply copy pasting the info.TISPKJ said:
Not disputing voiceys great work one bit but from a buyers perspective prices don't seem to have moved much at all
Agreed, prices seem to be broadly static at the moment.red_duke said:
31% of cars for sale have CCM brakes.
I've been through the data and this is correct - 31% of the cars listed on PH at the start of this month were advertised with CCM brakes. Here's the breakdown by year:
I am scraping the entire advert text and then scanning that text for keywords. I'm confident I have got the allocation of brake type correct.
Time for the final update for 2014. For the latest 360 price analysis and news of a shock rise in prices head over to Aldous Voice Blog.
Average F430 prices are broadly the same as last month - the index is currently at 98.61, up a paltry 0.04% MoM and a modest 2.26% over 2014.
The number of cars has fallen by 10 since last month with cars dropping out at all price points.
Here's the main data tables:
And here's the plot of mileages vs asking price:
Here's the big table where I try to show the movement in the market (click twice for a bigger view):
I am beginning to think that the narrowing of the gap between the 360 and F430 market is starting to make an entry level F430 a bit of a (relative) bargain. You need £55k to buy a decent 360 - add another £15k and one can buy a decent F430. With the additional performance on offer I think it is a no-brainer.
Finally, I like to make a small promotion. I spent today with Classic and Sports Car magazine - they were testing my F430 against an Audi R8 V8. The article is due to be published in early Jan so watch out for it!
Regards,
Aldous Voice
Average F430 prices are broadly the same as last month - the index is currently at 98.61, up a paltry 0.04% MoM and a modest 2.26% over 2014.
The number of cars has fallen by 10 since last month with cars dropping out at all price points.
Here's the main data tables:
And here's the plot of mileages vs asking price:
Here's the big table where I try to show the movement in the market (click twice for a bigger view):
I am beginning to think that the narrowing of the gap between the 360 and F430 market is starting to make an entry level F430 a bit of a (relative) bargain. You need £55k to buy a decent 360 - add another £15k and one can buy a decent F430. With the additional performance on offer I think it is a no-brainer.
Finally, I like to make a small promotion. I spent today with Classic and Sports Car magazine - they were testing my F430 against an Audi R8 V8. The article is due to be published in early Jan so watch out for it!
Regards,
Aldous Voice
Slickhillsy said:
Hey Voicey - good effort on the Stats, make interesting reading. Dont suppose you have numbers on the 430 Scuderia (Inc LHD)?
I did start a thread on V8 specials a while back but it was universally panned. As it happens, my new and improved algo scrapes the prices of all Ferrari tipos so I have some data going back a few months. What were you looking for?
Fattrader said:
Thank you for the work undertaken in this thread. It has been a good resource along with your other information on your website. I am viewing a F430 today. Hopefully the clouds part and I get some dry time with it. 
No problem - glad it has been useful. Please let us know how you get on.Gassing Station | Supercar General | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff