F430 Market Watch
Discussion
Apologies for the delay but I've had paying customers to look after. For the latest on 360 prices please head over here.
Average F430 prices have softened a touch further - down 0.56% over the last month. The average price is back under £100k.
The market is very slow right now and stock is steadily piling up. I can't see this changing as the nights draw in but don't expect F430 prices to fall as much as other tipos.
Average F430 prices have softened a touch further - down 0.56% over the last month. The average price is back under £100k.
The market is very slow right now and stock is steadily piling up. I can't see this changing as the nights draw in but don't expect F430 prices to fall as much as other tipos.
For the latest news on how much 360 prices have fallen head over here.
Conversely, average F430 prices have gone up - 2.16% over the last month which brings the average price back up over £100k. As many of you know, this has been driven by a number of very high priced low mileage manuals onto the market. What is interesting is that some of these have actually sold in very short order. With so few manuals made and the lack of a stick in the 458 this sub-section of the market appears to have become disconnected from what is going on elsewhere.
However, buyers for F1 cars are getting in short supply and can afford to be fussy. It is common for deep discounts to be made in order to secure a sale, even at franchised dealers.
Since this is my last update this year I'd like to wish you all the very best for Christmas and the New Year.
Conversely, average F430 prices have gone up - 2.16% over the last month which brings the average price back up over £100k. As many of you know, this has been driven by a number of very high priced low mileage manuals onto the market. What is interesting is that some of these have actually sold in very short order. With so few manuals made and the lack of a stick in the 458 this sub-section of the market appears to have become disconnected from what is going on elsewhere.
However, buyers for F1 cars are getting in short supply and can afford to be fussy. It is common for deep discounts to be made in order to secure a sale, even at franchised dealers.
Since this is my last update this year I'd like to wish you all the very best for Christmas and the New Year.
Great analysis and only a suggestion but maybe some top and tailing would give a fairer reflection of the general market.
There are 4 cars in there at £150k + that bring up the mean average considerably and are low mileage manual cars that are not representative of the others for sale.
If I was to put my F355 manual on the market for the price I would be prepared to sell it for lets say £200k for instance ,it would not be representative of its true value at £100k.
Lots of speculative prices out there at the moment so whilst the data kind of shows a trend its also kind of flawed.
Realise you cant get hold of actual transaction prices so I'm not being critical just pointing out there are statistics, more statistics and damned lies.
There are 4 cars in there at £150k + that bring up the mean average considerably and are low mileage manual cars that are not representative of the others for sale.
If I was to put my F355 manual on the market for the price I would be prepared to sell it for lets say £200k for instance ,it would not be representative of its true value at £100k.
Lots of speculative prices out there at the moment so whilst the data kind of shows a trend its also kind of flawed.
Realise you cant get hold of actual transaction prices so I'm not being critical just pointing out there are statistics, more statistics and damned lies.
RamboLambo said:
Great analysis and only a suggestion but maybe some top and tailing would give a fairer reflection of the general market.
There are 4 cars in there at £150k + that bring up the mean average considerably and are low mileage manual cars that are not representative of the others for sale.
If I was to put my F355 manual on the market for the price I would be prepared to sell it for lets say £200k for instance ,it would not be representative of its true value at £100k.
Lots of speculative prices out there at the moment so whilst the data kind of shows a trend its also kind of flawed.
Realise you cant get hold of actual transaction prices so I'm not being critical just pointing out there are statistics, more statistics and damned lies.
You are indeed correct - rather than simply top and tailing I would prefer to use something like Chauvenet to identify and remove outliers.There are 4 cars in there at £150k + that bring up the mean average considerably and are low mileage manual cars that are not representative of the others for sale.
If I was to put my F355 manual on the market for the price I would be prepared to sell it for lets say £200k for instance ,it would not be representative of its true value at £100k.
Lots of speculative prices out there at the moment so whilst the data kind of shows a trend its also kind of flawed.
Realise you cant get hold of actual transaction prices so I'm not being critical just pointing out there are statistics, more statistics and damned lies.
However, if I moved to a different methodology then it really wouldn't be backwards comparable. When I first started the market was a very different place.
More importantly changes mean development which means time, something I have very little of right now. In fact I am considering choosing an end date for stopping both market watch series completely...
Thank you Voicey for your update. We all appreciate your efforts and it gives us all an edge when we visit any dealers etc. I always look forward to reading your report, so please don't stop. I understand your shortage of time but you are providing a very useful guide. Once again many thanks.
Regards Mick.
Regards Mick.
Hi Voicey
I'm going to take a different view on this to the last reply...... Some may not like this, but maybe it is time for you to stop the 360 and 430 market watch, and you shouldn't feel guilty about that.
You have provided a very interesting and valuable set of figures over the last couple of years, during what has been an interesting time within the market. However, it seems asking prices and sale prices are becoming more complicated and therefore more difficult to define. Likewise, your time is becoming more precious.
Only you can decide Voicey, I for one have been grateful for your work and would personally like to thank you for all your efforts but if you feel it's time to call it a day, then so be it.
Allister
I'm going to take a different view on this to the last reply...... Some may not like this, but maybe it is time for you to stop the 360 and 430 market watch, and you shouldn't feel guilty about that.
You have provided a very interesting and valuable set of figures over the last couple of years, during what has been an interesting time within the market. However, it seems asking prices and sale prices are becoming more complicated and therefore more difficult to define. Likewise, your time is becoming more precious.
Only you can decide Voicey, I for one have been grateful for your work and would personally like to thank you for all your efforts but if you feel it's time to call it a day, then so be it.
Allister
Hi Aldous. Thanks again for the data, I for one certainly hope you continue to provide this. The talk of topping etc is pointless in my opinion and only seems to come up when people don't like what they see. The numbers are what the numbers are and you are providing a statistically accurate insight into advertised prices in what has been a really interesting period insofar as Ferrari (and other marques) pricing trends. Changing the way you report data would nullify your previous work, if others want to use this data to provide subjective analysis thats well and good but right now your method provides an accurate and consistent data point for us all to form opinions on. All the best and have a great Christmas.
I've always read the posts with interest, in fact I used to keep data myself from 2013/2014. The real issue, when something becomes so widely known such as Aldous' market watch, is that the market watch data itself invariably has some impact on the market, and it can spiral in both directions. As others have said above, certainly great work though and it has proved valuable and interesting to many.
It comes as no surprise that the market watch will stop in a falling market........it would only encourage more sales and prices to fall further and faster....
It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
simonr100 said:
It comes as no surprise that the market watch will stop in a falling market........it would only encourage more sales and prices to fall further and faster....
It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
Ouch don't kick them when they are down. The sensible ones would of known the bubble was about to burst.
Its good analysis even if the data can be fundamentally flawed ( No offence Voicey )and it would of been interesting to see it for McLarens for the last 12 months and going forward but I guess for the opposite reason of falling Ferrari prices we will also not get it for McLaren where cars are actually selling and prices going up.
Edited by RamboLambo on Tuesday 6th December 19:10
Edited by RamboLambo on Tuesday 6th December 19:10
supercampeao said:
apparently mclarens are not shifting at all... 
Meanwhile as Ferrari dealers close down until spring and prices plummet, another 5 ( that we know of ) 650S sold on here last week alone.
Seems the market is buoyant for a brand sensibly priced and with values only going to go up now
RamboLambo said:
simonr100 said:
It comes as no surprise that the market watch will stop in a falling market........it would only encourage more sales and prices to fall further and faster....
It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
Ouch don't kick them when they are down. The sensible ones would of known the bubble was about to burst.
Its good analysis even if the data can be fundamentally flawed ( No offence Voicey )and it would of been interesting to see it for McLarens for the last 12 months and going forward but I guess for the opposite reason of falling Ferrari prices we will also not get it for McLaren where cars are actually selling and prices going up.
Edited by RamboLambo on Tuesday 6th December 19:10
Edited by RamboLambo on Tuesday 6th December 19:10
Yipper said:
The average asking price of a Macca 12c on AT today, Dec 6 2016, is £126,100. There's the baseline.
Fair play. I'm not an analysts or as clever as Voicey to put a spreadsheet together detailing it but gut feel is
If its not being distorted with spiders at £155k I would hazard a guess that the average figure you have quoted there is higher than this time last year
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