F430 Market Watch
Discussion
Thank you for the kind words.
Scraping the data is easy - my server does it automatically on the first of each month. What takes time is cleaning the data up. So removing all the wanted adverts, Scuds, etc. I have a semi-automated routine for this so that's reasonably easy. The real ball ache is verifying that manual cars are listed properly - this involves opening the advert and eyeballing the pictures. Producing the charts is automated and the commentary is knocked up from what I've seen/heard during the month.
As some of you will be aware, I've had a fairly major career change in the last year. I used to ride a desk in a bank in a fairly comfortable senior management position. This afforded plenty of time for browsing PH and working on personal projects. I'm now working non stop trying to establish a business - add in a young family and I really don't have much time at all.
If I do decide to stop I will give you all plenty of notice!
As it happens, I scrape data for all Ferrari, Maserati, Lambo and McLaren adverts so if someone wanted the raw data to do a one off analysis I should be able to help.
I would love to have a rich and reliable data source of sold prices but the fact is it just doesn't exist. Advertised prices are a fairly good proxy for transaction prices and I do try to keep a handle on the discount that is achievable. Right now 5-7% is about right for a good F430 F1 that is stock (ie: not SoR).
Scraping the data is easy - my server does it automatically on the first of each month. What takes time is cleaning the data up. So removing all the wanted adverts, Scuds, etc. I have a semi-automated routine for this so that's reasonably easy. The real ball ache is verifying that manual cars are listed properly - this involves opening the advert and eyeballing the pictures. Producing the charts is automated and the commentary is knocked up from what I've seen/heard during the month.
As some of you will be aware, I've had a fairly major career change in the last year. I used to ride a desk in a bank in a fairly comfortable senior management position. This afforded plenty of time for browsing PH and working on personal projects. I'm now working non stop trying to establish a business - add in a young family and I really don't have much time at all.
If I do decide to stop I will give you all plenty of notice!
As it happens, I scrape data for all Ferrari, Maserati, Lambo and McLaren adverts so if someone wanted the raw data to do a one off analysis I should be able to help.
simonr100 said:
It comes as no surprise that the market watch will stop in a falling market........it would only encourage more sales and prices to fall further and faster....
It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
I just wanted to reply to this post personally. The fact that the market is falling has nothing to do with my thoughts of stopping.It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
I would love to have a rich and reliable data source of sold prices but the fact is it just doesn't exist. Advertised prices are a fairly good proxy for transaction prices and I do try to keep a handle on the discount that is achievable. Right now 5-7% is about right for a good F430 F1 that is stock (ie: not SoR).
voicey said:
Thank you for the kind words.
Scraping the data is easy - my server does it automatically on the first of each month. What takes time is cleaning the data up. So removing all the wanted adverts, Scuds, etc. I have a semi-automated routine for this so that's reasonably easy. The real ball ache is verifying that manual cars are listed properly - this involves opening the advert and eyeballing the pictures. Producing the charts is automated and the commentary is knocked up from what I've seen/heard during the month.
As some of you will be aware, I've had a fairly major career change in the last year. I used to ride a desk in a bank in a fairly comfortable senior management position. This afforded plenty of time for browsing PH and working on personal projects. I'm now working non stop trying to establish a business - add in a young family and I really don't have much time at all.
If I do decide to stop I will give you all plenty of notice!
As it happens, I scrape data for all Ferrari, Maserati, Lambo and McLaren adverts so if someone wanted the raw data to do a one off analysis I should be able to help.
I would love to have a rich and reliable data source of sold prices but the fact is it just doesn't exist. Advertised prices are a fairly good proxy for transaction prices and I do try to keep a handle on the discount that is achievable. Right now 5-7% is about right for a good F430 F1 that is stock (ie: not SoR).
That's interesting and thanks for taking the time to reply and for providing all the data in the first place.Scraping the data is easy - my server does it automatically on the first of each month. What takes time is cleaning the data up. So removing all the wanted adverts, Scuds, etc. I have a semi-automated routine for this so that's reasonably easy. The real ball ache is verifying that manual cars are listed properly - this involves opening the advert and eyeballing the pictures. Producing the charts is automated and the commentary is knocked up from what I've seen/heard during the month.
As some of you will be aware, I've had a fairly major career change in the last year. I used to ride a desk in a bank in a fairly comfortable senior management position. This afforded plenty of time for browsing PH and working on personal projects. I'm now working non stop trying to establish a business - add in a young family and I really don't have much time at all.
If I do decide to stop I will give you all plenty of notice!
As it happens, I scrape data for all Ferrari, Maserati, Lambo and McLaren adverts so if someone wanted the raw data to do a one off analysis I should be able to help.
simonr100 said:
It comes as no surprise that the market watch will stop in a falling market........it would only encourage more sales and prices to fall further and faster....
It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
I just wanted to reply to this post personally. The fact that the market is falling has nothing to do with my thoughts of stopping.It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
I would love to have a rich and reliable data source of sold prices but the fact is it just doesn't exist. Advertised prices are a fairly good proxy for transaction prices and I do try to keep a handle on the discount that is achievable. Right now 5-7% is about right for a good F430 F1 that is stock (ie: not SoR).
How do you think the 5-7% you mention above compares to last year? Personally I think it was less and is being masked by advertised prices only.
I am hoping to add a Ferrari to my garage next year, I was thinking of buying this year(430 spider or a 599) but the inflated market worried me and I bought a 12c spider instead to add to my Aston. If I am lucky F12's will be falling more.
Sorry for late reply, just ran the numbers for 355s and they are also up around 2%.
There have also been around 10 cars sold (or withdrawn) in November which is quite a surprise to me TBH. (I know at least 4 or 5 sold as they are marked sold or deposit taken)
Prices are still down on their peak (August) but could be seasonal norm I suspect.
There have also been around 10 cars sold (or withdrawn) in November which is quite a surprise to me TBH. (I know at least 4 or 5 sold as they are marked sold or deposit taken)
Prices are still down on their peak (August) but could be seasonal norm I suspect.
simonr100 said:
That's interesting and thanks for taking the time to reply and for providing all the data in the first place.
How do you think the 5-7% you mention above compares to last year? Personally I think it was less and is being masked by advertised prices only.
I am hoping to add a Ferrari to my garage next year, I was thinking of buying this year(430 spider or a 599) but the inflated market worried me and I bought a 12c spider instead to add to my Aston. If I am lucky F12's will be falling more.
Last year there was little to no opportunity to negotiate a discount. You made a good call buying a 12C - if I was shopping for a used supercar it's where my money would be.How do you think the 5-7% you mention above compares to last year? Personally I think it was less and is being masked by advertised prices only.
I am hoping to add a Ferrari to my garage next year, I was thinking of buying this year(430 spider or a 599) but the inflated market worried me and I bought a 12c spider instead to add to my Aston. If I am lucky F12's will be falling more.
Interesting to see early Lambo Gallardos now ticking up (red line).
Data courtesy of Sambalee:
http://www.gallardo.info/lamborghini-gallardo-pric...
Data courtesy of Sambalee:
http://www.gallardo.info/lamborghini-gallardo-pric...
Aldous, thank you so much for this data and your painstaking work every month. I am sure it is appreciated by many more people who may just browse and not post their appreciation. I certainly appreciate it as much since I have been a 430 owner as I did a couple of years back when considering taking the plunge.
Someone wise said that reducing the frequency might make it bearable for you - quarterly updates based on the past month's activity would presumably mean a third of the workload. I hope I speak for many in saying I hope you don't stop entirely, as there's nothing else quite like this out there!
I own a manual, and, with that vested interest noted, I think you are right about the manuals spinning off into their own market and I am not surprised. The same happened with the last V12 two seater manuals, the 599s, and also with the 575s, of which there are even fewer than there are 430s. As the last mid engined manual Ferrari, it would be surprising if the 430 were not attractive to collectors, although with higher numbers than the 575/599, supply is greater.
It's also a fantastic car to drive, and looks bang up to date even now.
Anyway, please don't stop entirely!
Someone wise said that reducing the frequency might make it bearable for you - quarterly updates based on the past month's activity would presumably mean a third of the workload. I hope I speak for many in saying I hope you don't stop entirely, as there's nothing else quite like this out there!
I own a manual, and, with that vested interest noted, I think you are right about the manuals spinning off into their own market and I am not surprised. The same happened with the last V12 two seater manuals, the 599s, and also with the 575s, of which there are even fewer than there are 430s. As the last mid engined manual Ferrari, it would be surprising if the 430 were not attractive to collectors, although with higher numbers than the 575/599, supply is greater.
It's also a fantastic car to drive, and looks bang up to date even now.
Anyway, please don't stop entirely!
100 IAN said:
How much more would this be worth if it was Rosso/Crema?
Maybe a little more but £20k topshttp://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/f...
Edited by RamboLambo on Sunday 1st January 18:03
100 IAN said:
Jules360 said:
Looks like the one at £175k is sold.
Graypaul Edinburgh had one advertised for £140k but now sold, probably won't show on Voicey's data as I think he scrapes info on 1st of each month and probably missed it(?) Happy new year! For the latest on 360 prices, including news of a surprise uptick, had over here.
Average F430 prices have risen again and are now at their highest since my records began. This rise has been caused by cars being added right at the top of the market. With the rest of the market broadly unchanged, the average has moved up.
Manual cars have now become completely detached from their F1 counterparts and have a market all of their own. This isn't just in terms of their pricing but also the activity which is much more elevated. I need to set aside some time at some point to create two sub indices which I'll probably go back a year so we have something to digest.
Average F430 prices have risen again and are now at their highest since my records began. This rise has been caused by cars being added right at the top of the market. With the rest of the market broadly unchanged, the average has moved up.
Manual cars have now become completely detached from their F1 counterparts and have a market all of their own. This isn't just in terms of their pricing but also the activity which is much more elevated. I need to set aside some time at some point to create two sub indices which I'll probably go back a year so we have something to digest.
I can't believe another month has passed. January was supposed to be a quiet month for me yet I've been pretty much flat out. However now I'm back working on my own so can allocate time to things a little better, including getting these updates out in a timely fashion.
For the latest in 360 prices please head over here.
If you haven't already checked it out, have a look at this thread. It seems that someone has used the principle of my little updates and re-fashioned it into a much more professional looking affair. This is great for me as I had thoughts of packing it in anyway - with an alternative source of numbers I won't feel so bad if I do decide to call it a day.
In general the supercar market remains fairly quiet however there are transactions going through, providing the price and the car is right. Tim Walker sold three 348s in a week but he deals in the very best cars at realistic prices. Good manual 430s are being sold so long as they aren't mental money and a client of mine even got gazumped on a big ticket purchase a few days ago so there are reasons to be optimistic. However the unrealistic vendors are likely to remain stuck with their stock.
430 asking prices have grown again, another 1% over the last month. The index is now at 130.99. This ha sbeen driven by a few of the cheaper cars dropping out of the data.
For the latest in 360 prices please head over here.
If you haven't already checked it out, have a look at this thread. It seems that someone has used the principle of my little updates and re-fashioned it into a much more professional looking affair. This is great for me as I had thoughts of packing it in anyway - with an alternative source of numbers I won't feel so bad if I do decide to call it a day.
In general the supercar market remains fairly quiet however there are transactions going through, providing the price and the car is right. Tim Walker sold three 348s in a week but he deals in the very best cars at realistic prices. Good manual 430s are being sold so long as they aren't mental money and a client of mine even got gazumped on a big ticket purchase a few days ago so there are reasons to be optimistic. However the unrealistic vendors are likely to remain stuck with their stock.
430 asking prices have grown again, another 1% over the last month. The index is now at 130.99. This ha sbeen driven by a few of the cheaper cars dropping out of the data.
Its a pity that there is no way to get real data on actual sales ie how many of thosem that disappear off the list have actually changed hands and how many have simply been taken off the market. Certainly in the second hand yacht market that I am much more familiar with, a good half of the boats withdrawn from sale have not been sold. And of those that have been sold there is a definite skew towards the more aggressively priced ones.
Left wondering if the price increase is down to the cheaper cars moving whilst the more expensive ones are being put up for sale at the beginning of the season.
Left wondering if the price increase is down to the cheaper cars moving whilst the more expensive ones are being put up for sale at the beginning of the season.
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