F430 Market Watch

[voicey]

WEHGuy said:

Is it possible to add a private sales and trade sales prices stat?

I have the split in my data - I will see what sort of analysis can be done tomorrow.

[voicey]

voicey said:

WEHGuy said:

Is it possible to add a private sales and trade sales prices stat?

I have the split in my data - I will see what sort of analysis can be done tomorrow.

Apologies for the delay in updating this query - I had an off on my bike the day after I wrote the reply above and was hospitalised for a little while. I'm getting back on my feet now and have been able to look at the data.

In short, I don't think there are enough private sales out there for any meaningful analysis to be done. Since the start of the year there have only been a handful of cars advertised outside of dealers.



Looking at the three privately advertised cars in a little detail - I pulled the private cars out of the data together with a couple of others that seem comparable on the face of things.



This very un-scientific analysis suggests a spread of £3-4k in asking prices between a private sale and a trade sale. In reality I believe the spread to be much greater - the vendor will know where the trade bids are and an informed buyer should know they are likely to agree a price a little above this. £3-4k is not the bid-offer spread for a exotic car dealer.

[voicey]

One more thing - if you're interested in numbers of F430 cars in the UK then check out my latest blog posting following my FOI request to the DVLA: Aldous Voice Blog

[Steve7777]

voicey said:

One more thing - if you're interested in numbers of F430 cars in the UK then check out my latest blog posting following my FOI request to the DVLA: Aldous Voice Blog

That's a really interesting blog post. It's a shame nearly a quarter of UK 360s are now SORNed. How does that compare in the data to older models?

[priley]

Aldous, sorry to hear about the 'off'-sounds nasty. Good to hear you're on the mend.

[voicey]

Steve7777 said:

voicey said:

One more thing - if you're interested in numbers of F430 cars in the UK then check out my latest blog posting following my FOI request to the DVLA: Aldous Voice Blog

That's a really interesting blog post. It's a shame nearly a quarter of UK 360s are now SORNed. How does that compare in the data to older models?

Sadly, the data is not split up for older models. They are lumped into the category "Ferrari - Other".

priley said:

Aldous, sorry to hear about the 'off'-sounds nasty. Good to hear you're on the mend.

Thanks.

[f1ten]

hi hope your getting better

yes thats very interesting reading and to be honest, its no wonder 355 values have gone up and just by virtue of the numbers, it points towards 360's going up over the next 2-3 yrs, as whilst the CS might be cheaper in Europe and a worthy saving to import, there isnt much in it for a normal 360 versus uk price. Again this verifies why the 550 is climbing.

thats an incredible number of 430's that have been shipped although as we all know, there arent the same number going to Australia today as was happening about 2-3 yrs ago. Im guessing Singapore or HK are the culprits today.

[voicey]

Time for another update. For the latest 360 price analysis, including CAP data please head over here: Aldous Voice Blog.

Average prices have erased last months gain, falling 0.76% MoM. The index now stands at 97.95.



The number of cars offered for sale has dipped:



Here's the main data table (including the Private/Trade split):



Here's the chart of asking prices vs mileages:



And here are the theoretical average asking prices:



The median mileage has crept up again..



Finally, I'd like to highlight this private sale: Clicky. I know the owner and it is a very clean car and well spec'd car. If you're in the market for a F430 spider then you should look at this one.

That’s it for this month – as usual please do get in touch if you have any feedback.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

[voicey]

It's that time of the month again. Before getting to the numbers I would like to draw reader’s attention to my Database. I would be very grateful for any information on 360 or F430 cars in the UK.

For 360 prices and news of a price increase please head over here: Aldous Voice Blog

It's not just 360 prices that have firmed, average F430 asking prices have increased a healthy 1.35% MoM, making it 2.95% since the start of the year. The price index now stands at 99.27. Another month like this and we'll have reversed all the losses seen since I started collecting data.



The number of cars offered for sale has increased by one and remains broadly the same since March. Interestingly, there are no privately offered cars for sale at the moment - the three cars that were out there have dropped out of the data.



Here's the main data table:



Here's the plot of asking prices vs mileages. Note the outlier - a Spider with 53k on the clock at £80k. Surely this must be a mistake?!



Here's the table of theoretical asking prices for different mileages:



The median mileage hasn't moved much - I'm not sure it's worth keeping this table going forward.



That’s it for this month – as usual please do get in touch if you have any feedback.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

[mwstewart]

Thanks Aldous.

[TISPKJ]

Aldous, out of interest how many cars do you think sold last month ?
I see you reference one more v number for sale, do we know if any actually sell only in the main it seems the same old cars month after month in the adds ?

[limpsfield]

I don't have a Ferrari but just wanted to say I really enjoyed reading this, thanks for taking the effort and look forward to the updates.

[DavidCBevan]

Thanks Aldous.

Great data, I will have to get in touch when I come to sell mine (hopefully not for a couple of years).

Mine is a 2005 430 F1 Spider Nero 20k miles so I guess you'd value it around £65-70k?

[Ardente]

Aldous,

Thanks for this information, it makes fascinating reading. I would be interested in how the median mileage values trend over time, I assume that as the cars are out of production it will rise gradually, how gradually will indicate how much the cars are actually being used.

[voicey]

Thank you all for the kind words - I sometimes wonder if anyone reads the updates!

TISPKJ said:

Aldous, out of interest how many cars do you think sold last month ?
I see you reference one more v number for sale, do we know if any actually sell only in the main it seems the same old cars month after month in the adds ?

I don't have the data in front of me but will try and answer your question when I get back to my PC.

DavidCBevan said:

Thanks Aldous.

Great data, I will have to get in touch when I come to sell mine (hopefully not for a couple of years).

Mine is a 2005 430 F1 Spider Nero 20k miles so I guess you'd value it around £65-70k?

Again, I will look at the numbers for you ASAP.

Ardente said:

Aldous,

Thanks for this information, it makes fascinating reading. I would be interested in how the median mileage values trend over time, I assume that as the cars are out of production it will rise gradually, how gradually will indicate how much the cars are actually being used.

I agree, the median mileage is going to be a good indicator of how much these cars are being used. The median for F430s is hovering around 15k - if you take 2007 as the mid point in the production run then that equates to around 3,000 miles a year on average.

The 360 median is hovering around 23,000 which equates to 2,300 miles a year (taking 2002 as the mid point).

It seems that people are using F430s more than 360s (or they are clocking 360s more ).

[voicey]

TISPKJ said:

Aldous, out of interest how many cars do you think sold last month ?
I see you reference one more v number for sale, do we know if any actually sell only in the main it seems the same old cars month after month in the adds ?

This isn't that scientific but I've listed the cars by seller and split them up by bodystyle, year and gearbox. This separates most of them out to a single line. You can then see if they have been in the data from one month to the next (click on the table to see it at Thumbsnap and click again to enlarge it)

I make 47 appearing in both June and July's data with 28 dropping out and 29 coming onto the market. Obviously they'll be some withdrawn unsold but it should give us an idea of the level of activity. I will continue to show this every month.

DavidCBevan said:

Thanks Aldous.

Great data, I will have to get in touch when I come to sell mine (hopefully not for a couple of years).

Mine is a 2005 430 F1 Spider Nero 20k miles so I guess you'd value it around £65-70k?

The average asking price for 20k miles is currently £75k. Add some for the fact that it's a spider but take a little away because it's not red and is an early car. What colour is the interior? Assuming it is "market friendly" then asking high 60's as a private sale seems very reasonable to me.

Edited by voicey on Friday 4th July 21:41

[Eleander]

voicey said:

Thank you all for the kind words - I sometimes wonder if anyone reads the updates!

The updates are very interesting and your work in compiling them is much appreciated so please keep them coming.

[TISPKJ]

Thanks mate, interesting numbers, it's funny how some cars seem to hang around for a fair while and others are strapped up almost instantly, even more unusual is that it does not appear to be the cheaper end of the market that moves, I only say this as I very often filter price low to high and a lot of those not just the high milers are still there.
Interesting ......

[cymario]

Hi guys

I have just purchased my dream car (f430 F1 coupe in Rosso red with crema)and cant stop smiling. I have read this thread and find it extremely useful and informative and I will keep a close eye on it (especially the monthly update which is great).

If there is any information that I should be aware of(as a new owner)I would be grateful to receive it!

[cymario]

Voicey.

Your excellent monthly updates will be much appreciated by me as I will be keeping a keen eye on values as i am hoping that they will remain strong.

Any views on values going forward will be greatly appreciated as I plan to keep the car for a minimum of 2 years. What % of my purchase price should I expect to get back? My car has 8,200 miles only and I plan to do around 2 - 2,500 miles per year in it.

Another thing that I would appreciate some help with is the stereo. my unit has a 'Navi' button and it has also come with a c.d. When pressing the 'Navi' button it asks for a software install. I put the c.d in and it goes through an install process which takes around 5 minutes, finally coming up with 'software successfully installed' but when I press the 'Navi' button again it just asks for the software install again.

Any ideas guys? should the car have the navigation?

Thanks

Edited by cymario on Monday 7th July 17:04