F430 Market Watch

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voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Saturday 4th January 2014
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red_duke said:
Great insight Aldous, thank you for drilling down on the CCM effect. I confess my interest is purely selfish as I've just had the £10,500 factory CCM brake kit fitted to my '05 F430.



It would be nice to see some return come resale time smile
No worries. Did you get the brakes fitted by a main dealer? I've got a set of very special CCM's in the cupboard under my stairs ready to go on the car. How did it change the braking in your opinion? Did they fit the different brake servo?

KenC said:
Remember that CCM brakes became standard some time in 2008 so an advert for these cars may not mention them.
This is my concern Ken. Do we know when the switch over happened? I might be able to build in a extra bit that automatically flags for CCM for the later cars.

KenC

691 posts

235 months

Saturday 4th January 2014
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As far as I can remember it was the 2008 model year but I can't be specific on dates.

Edit, just found this:

Bologna, December 5th 2007 – Ferrari has
announced to the media and its clients at the Bologna Motor Show 2007 that Brembo brakes featuring carbon ceramic material (CCM) discs will be provided as standard on the entire Prancing Horse range from 2008.

Edited by KenC on Saturday 4th January 17:55

red_duke

800 posts

181 months

Saturday 4th January 2014
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voicey said:
No worries. Did you get the brakes fitted by a main dealer? I've got a set of very special CCM's in the cupboard under my stairs ready to go on the car. How did it change the braking in your opinion? Did they fit the different brake servo?
Fitted by Graypaul Ferrari Nottingham. A larger brake booster comes as part of the kit. They also reprogram the brake ECU to enable the brake wear indicator algorithm (for what it's worth).

The brakes are superb, quiet, and powerful. Steering feedback is greatly improved and no brake dust!

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Sunday 5th January 2014
quotequote all
KenC said:
As far as I can remember it was the 2008 model year but I can't be specific on dates.

Edit, just found this:

Bologna, December 5th 2007 – Ferrari has
announced to the media and its clients at the Bologna Motor Show 2007 that Brembo brakes featuring carbon ceramic material (CCM) discs will be provided as standard on the entire Prancing Horse range from 2008.

Edited by KenC on Saturday 4th January 17:55
There are some 2008 cars with CCM and some without. I have set the algo so that 2009 cars are automatically flagged as CCM and if a 2008 car is advertised without saying it has CCM then I flag is as "Poss". I will then eyeball the Poss cars to check what is fitted.

red_duke said:
Fitted by Graypaul Ferrari Nottingham. A larger brake booster comes as part of the kit. They also reprogram the brake ECU to enable the brake wear indicator algorithm (for what it's worth).

The brakes are superb, quiet, and powerful. Steering feedback is greatly improved and no brake dust!
Great stuff. Can't wait to get mine fitted.

red_duke

800 posts

181 months

Monday 6th January 2014
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voicey said:
Great stuff. Can't wait to get mine fitted.
I look forward to reading about this. I trust it will be in your Blog?

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Sunday 2nd February 2014
quotequote all
It's that time of the month again...

For 360 prices head here. For 458 prices head over here.

Average asking prices have increased for the third month in a row, with a modest MoM 0.22% increase. The headline price index now stands at 97.42.

The number of cars for sale has increased from 59 to 74:



Here is the main data table, including the split between CCM and steel braked cars:



Here is the latest chart of asking price vs mileage:



And here's the table of theoretical asking prices vs mileage:



Finally the yellow spiders for Adz - no more have come onto the market however the one that is for sale seems to be hanging around like a bad fart.



Let me know if you want anything else.

Cheers,

Aldous Voice.

red_duke

800 posts

181 months

Sunday 2nd February 2014
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Excellent. Rosso F1 coupes with carbon brakes still seem to be a valuable combo. I'm surprised that Spiders have lost their original price premium over the coupes though.

Really appreciate your time in putting this together each month Aldous.

Have you started your CCM brake install yet?

markst

236 posts

165 months

Sunday 2nd February 2014
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I wonder if you can record just how long cars have been advertised for....but I not sure how prices can be rising....as I can think of a few that have dropped in price....

..but putting that to one side ....some ads have been on for MONTHS ....and that yellow one is not the worst....lol

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Sunday 2nd February 2014
quotequote all
red_duke said:
Excellent. Rosso F1 coupes with carbon brakes still seem to be a valuable combo. I'm surprised that Spiders have lost their original price premium over the coupes though.

Really appreciate your time in putting this together each month Aldous.

Have you started your CCM brake install yet?
No worries. I've not started the CCM install yet - I've been concentrating on finishing some work on the house that started last March! I need to source a CCM-specific servo as that's the bit I'm missing. Also need to find time to sort out my carbon seats and a whole host of other things for the car...

Cheers,

Aldous.

Edited by voicey on Sunday 2nd February 19:28

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Sunday 2nd February 2014
quotequote all
markst said:
I wonder if you can record just how long cars have been advertised for....but I not sure how prices can be rising....as I can think of a few that have dropped in price....

..but putting that to one side ....some ads have been on for MONTHS ....and that yellow one is not the worst....lol
I've been trying for a while to build something that tracks how long cars have been advertised for. The main problem is that dealers are constantly changing the adverts so there's no consistency. I've noticed that they will change the price by £100 or tweak the mileage a touch. I think they do it because the default sorting of adverts is "Newest with images first". Adverts that have been changed are treated as new and thus appear at the top of the list of results. Damn annoying when you need to try and program a computer to spot trends!

For the last couple of months I have been lifting the name of the vendor off the adverts which will help in identifying cars that have been hanging around but it'll take time to build up a picture. If you have any cars in mind I would be happy to eyeball my data and manually tell you how long it has been listed fir sale.

Cheers,

Aldous

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Another month, another lot of data....

For 360 prices head here. For 458 prices head over here.

Average asking prices have firmed up for the fourth month in a row - the AV430PI index now stands at 98.74 following a MoM increase of 1.35%. The driver behind this increase is asking prices of cars with sub 15k on the clock. Prices of cars with more mileage have barely moved. This behaviour is also reflected in 360 prices (see link to my blog above).

The number of cars for sale continues to rise but remains well below the numbers seen in the summer:



Here's a table of the data but up for different factors:



Here's the price vs mileage chart (note the outlier in the bottom left corner is LHD):



Here's the table of average theoretical asking prices for different mileages:



Finally, the last update on yellow spiders. Adz has sold his car and bought a beetle (in white!). If anyone wants a topless banana then I can recommend his car as he drives like a girl (only joking mate - it is a great car for someone).



Regards,

Aldous Voice

Edited by voicey on Sunday 2nd March 12:27

red_duke

800 posts

181 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
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Thanks Aldous. I always enjoy pouring over your analyses.

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Wednesday 2nd April 2014
quotequote all
It's that time of the month again. Before I present the numbers, I'd like to provide a link to a new Buying Guide on my blog. It's a work in progress and I would welcome any feedback. Link.

For 360 prices head here. For 458 prices head over here.

The average F430 asking price has fallen slightly from last month, the index now stands at 98.05 after suffering a 0.69% MoM fall.



The number of cars offered for sale has increased by just one:



Here's the data cut up by the usual factors:



Here's the plot of asking price vs mileage (note the outlier in the bottom left hand corner is LHD):



If you compare this to the prior month's chart you will see the car with 409 miles on it (priced at £110k) has dropped out of the data. I'm thinking this has caused the small drop in average prices.

Here's the table of theoretical average asking prices for different mileages:



It's about this time in the post that I put in a table of yellow spiders - however there aren't any offered for sale at the moment. Whoever bought Adz's car has got a cherished example.

I thought it would be interesting to keep a track of the median mileage of cars on the market in order to give an idea of what sort of use this tipo is getting.



That's it for now. As usual please let me know if there's anything you want from the data.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

lamboman100

1,445 posts

121 months

Wednesday 2nd April 2014
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Great data and blog, Voicey. Especially the average mileage stuff.

Do you scrape any other models? No biggie, just curious.

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Thursday 3rd April 2014
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lamboman100 said:
Great data and blog, Voicey. Especially the average mileage stuff.

Do you scrape any other models? No biggie, just curious.
I collect 360, 430, 458 & FF prices - the links are at the top of my previous post (except for the FF as that's just for one person who thinking of buying one).

I was talking to my brother the other day who's a bit of a programming wizard and I think I'l going to rejig my algo to collect all prices across all models. As with most things though, I just need to find the time...

lamboman100

1,445 posts

121 months

Thursday 3rd April 2014
quotequote all
voicey said:
lamboman100 said:
Great data and blog, Voicey. Especially the average mileage stuff.

Do you scrape any other models? No biggie, just curious.
I collect 360, 430, 458 & FF prices - the links are at the top of my previous post (except for the FF as that's just for one person who thinking of buying one).

I was talking to my brother the other day who's a bit of a programming wizard and I think I'l going to rejig my algo to collect all prices across all models. As with most things though, I just need to find the time...
I will take a lookie. Look forward to other models / brands if you get the time.

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Thursday 1st May 2014
quotequote all
For 360 prices please head over here. 458 prices are here.

VOSA released their stats for 2013 recently so I thought we’d start with those. As you can see the amount of F430s on the road has been broadly static for a while. This is in contrast to the 360 which is declining – mainly due to export. In Australia you are allowed to personally import a car that was never sold new, which excludes the F430 and newer Ferraris.



Average asking prices have risen slightly since last month and have nearly erased the prior month’s fall. The index now stands at 98.70, up 2.36% in 2014.



For the second month in a row the number of cars offered for sale has increased by 1…



Here’s the data cut up by the usual factors:



Here’s the chart of asking prices plotted against mileages.



And here’s the table of computed average asking prices for different mileages.



The median mileage has barely moved but it does seem to be creeping up overall and is only 9,000 behind that of the 360s that are on the market today. Does this indicate that people are using the F430 more or have just the low mileage cars been sold?



That’s it for this month – as usual please do get in touch if you have any feedback.

Regards,

Aldous Voice.

Edited by voicey on Thursday 1st May 21:05

supercampeao

211 posts

167 months

Friday 2nd May 2014
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Superb - thanks!

voicey

Original Poster:

2,453 posts

187 months

Wednesday 7th May 2014
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I've done some more work with the VOSA numbers over on my blog: Link

WEHGuy

1,347 posts

173 months

Wednesday 7th May 2014
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Is it possible to add a private sales and trade sales prices stat?