Supercar valuations. Stick or twist?

Supercar valuations. Stick or twist?

Author
Discussion

ilovevolvo

1,832 posts

223 months

Monday 26th January 2015
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Camlet as a person of great taste and the funds to buy and enjoy these cars please get an F1 there will never be another like it and i can see the values just keep going up like the 250gto etc Your be able to get round Mrs C by saying its one of the few super cars she can bring a friend out also smile

z4RRSchris99

11,220 posts

178 months

Monday 26th January 2015
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he said high 6 figures not high 7....

Zonda, few classic ferraris etc

br d

8,388 posts

225 months

Monday 26th January 2015
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_Leg_ said:
Buy em, drive em, enjoy em.

You can always make more money, you cant make more time, spend it wisely. Be dead soon, crack on.
I would just like to say that is a fantastic post!

I am just the wrong side of fifty and have a health issue which means it's difficult to predict my future (should be okay for the next few years but after that no telling from here really, could be 20 more years or 3). There are many more 'sensible' ways I could spend my money other than on cars but as _Leg_ so astutely points out, you can work as hard as you like but you can't make more time.

Rep for Leg!

TISPKJ

3,648 posts

206 months

Monday 26th January 2015
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z4RRSchris99 said:
he said high 6 figures not high 7....

Zonda, few classic ferraris etc
Im only counting the noughts smile

Camlet .... how bigs your hat ? smile

_Leg_

2,798 posts

210 months

Monday 26th January 2015
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br d said:
I would just like to say that is a fantastic post!

I am just the wrong side of fifty and have a health issue which means it's difficult to predict my future (should be okay for the next few years but after that no telling from here really, could be 20 more years or 3). There are many more 'sensible' ways I could spend my money other than on cars but as _Leg_ so astutely points out, you can work as hard as you like but you can't make more time.

Rep for Leg!
Sorry to hear that mate.

Two images that put a bit of context on life for me are:

Your house and car are insignificant..



Your 60-100 years here are insignificant...



So, dont waste time taking it so seriously and enjoy the moment you're here doing what you love. Tomorrow will either sort itself out or belong to someone else.

Took 40 years on this damned planet to work that out. Wish I had earlier, I might not have been so stressed for so long.

On a side note the second image always makes me laugh at how arrogant we are as a species thinking we're the number 1 species and everything we think we know is absolute truth. We've barely got going compared to the dinosaurs and where are they now?

So, as a species we need to spend our time wisely too.

Right, enough of the deep st. Here's a pic to level things up a bit..



That's better, back in bloke mode. Now I'm thinking, "if those stockings have metal clasps she's gonna scratch that f*cking bonnet the inconsiderate cow". Sigh, I must be getting old.

DevonPaul

1,169 posts

136 months

Monday 26th January 2015
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_Leg_ said:


That's better, back in bloke mode. Now I'm thinking, "if those stockings have metal clasps she's gonna scratch that f*cking bonnet the inconsiderate cow". Sigh, I must be getting old.
I must admit the second thing I checked was whether she'd taken her jewellery off.

lambosagogo

242 posts

143 months

Monday 26th January 2015
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DevonPaul said:
I must admit the second thing I checked was whether she'd taken her jewellery off.
Likewise. I was so concerned that I had to check the other photos from that shoot. All clear - no jewellery as far as I can tell. Sensible girl (although she may be a bit cold).

But back to the original question - both stick and twist. There's more than one market so there's more than one bubble. The price of a 360 isn't going to make any difference to the price of an Enzo or 365. For what the OP is likely to be going for I would have thought he'd be pretty safe. If you're buying at the end of the supercar market propped up by finance then things may be a bit dicier.

sone

4,585 posts

237 months

Monday 26th January 2015
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DevonPaul said:
_Leg_ said:


That's better, back in bloke mode. Now I'm thinking, "if those stockings have metal clasps she's gonna scratch that f*cking bonnet the inconsiderate cow". Sigh, I must be getting old.
I must admit the second thing I checked was whether she'd taken her jewellery off.
Where can I get a car cover like that from?

_Leg_

2,798 posts

210 months

Monday 26th January 2015
quotequote all
lambosagogo said:
Likewise. I was so concerned that I had to check the other photos from that shoot. All clear - no jewellery as far as I can tell. Sensible girl (although she may be a bit cold).
laughing, out loud.

For the "joke" I had to google "Girl on a Ferrari". It took me an hour to choose a picture.

Edited by _Leg_ on Monday 26th January 21:55

Camlet

Original Poster:

1,132 posts

148 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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TISPKJ said:
z4RRSchris99 said:
he said high 6 figures not high 7....

Zonda, few classic ferraris etc
Im only counting the noughts smile

Camlet .... how bigs your hat ? smile
As 'Arry said, "Mans Got To Know His Limitations" biggrin

z4RRSchris99

11,220 posts

178 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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muria? that would be lovely.

Kyodo

727 posts

123 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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priley said:
Perhaps Rowan Atkinson's F1 sale is an indication that he for one thinks it's peaked.
Perhaps, or maybe he simply doesn't want it anymore!

sone

4,585 posts

237 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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Kyodo said:
priley said:
Perhaps Rowan Atkinson's F1 sale is an indication that he for one thinks it's peaked.
Perhaps, or maybe he simply doesn't want it anymore!
The latter more likely, when we start to follow Mr Bean for a financial steer we are in trouble. (-:

roygarth

2,673 posts

247 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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Kyodo said:
priley said:
Perhaps Rowan Atkinson's F1 sale is an indication that he for one thinks it's peaked.
Perhaps, or maybe he simply doesn't want it anymore!
He's getting divorced.

_Leg_

2,798 posts

210 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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roygarth said:
He's getting divorced.
It appears he has decided to swap his wife and McLaren f1 for this. TBH she looks very similar to his wife.

No idea what the trade in value is on a wife. I suspect its a (very) negative number.


roygarth

2,673 posts

247 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
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_Leg_ said:
No idea what the trade in value is on a wife. I suspect its a (very) negative number.
On the basis he's got £70mm...it'll be the F1 plus £27mm - ouch! The new ride is 20+ years his junior, which will ease the pain!

456mgt

2,504 posts

265 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
I do know what you mean Camlet, and likewise have no idea what's going to happen in the long run. Personally I can't bring myself to pay vastly more now for a car that I admired a few years ago, but didn't buy then. If I didn't pull the trigger at the time, what's changed that makes me like it 3x more now?

Like you, I regularly get offers for my cars and you do wonder what it would feel like if the values tank and you've left a great deal of cash on the table. But you'd turn something you enjoy immensely into numbers in a bank account, so unless you have something in mind to use most of that cash I'd say stick.

Cheib

23,110 posts

174 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
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Personally I think the market is starting to shown signs of topping out.....what you need for any market to go down is people that are forced to sell/motivated to sell. I don't think anyone has thought like that about the car market for a long time but now when I look at the car dealers websites they seem to suddenly have a lot of stock....have a look at JZM's website....they traded a huge amount of high end mostly modern Porsche's over the last few years and suddenly they have a handful of cars they want the best part of half a million quid for! Cars like 997 GT3 RS's which were selling in days now seem to be staying in stock longer....I notice they have just got a 4.0RS back in stock they sold towards the end of last year. There are certainly plenty of car dealers building big new showrooms at the moment.

In Porsche terms I think it's the people that are buying 2.4s's for £200k that need to worry rather than the guys that own 2.7 RS's. The genuine halo cars I think will be all right it's the stuff that's being bought because people can't buy the halo car that's going to take a bath.

If I had a garage with three or four cars in it that I'd owned for a while and owned the cars because I love cars I'd not be at all bothered and just enjoy the cars. I don't think I'd be rushing to buy a car right now though.

As an investment I think the car market right now is pretty risky...sure if you have owned a 2.7 RS or a Muira for 10 years you've seen a 1000% return and there's no way they are going back to that level in the early 2000's. People look at say 993 Turbo's and think they've been an great investment....they have if you bought say three years ago for £50k and can sell it now for say £90k but 993 Turbo were £50k ten years ago...if you've owned one for ten years I honestly don't think they've been that good an "investment".

Cost 2005 £50k
Sold 2015 £90K
Maintenance/Storage/Insurance £2.5k per year ? £25k.

So you've made £15 k profit on your £50k car....that's about a 2 or 3% annual return. Clearly as a car nut you've got to enjoy that car for 10 years and have great motoring for free which is fantastic but people buying these cars as investments ?

I have NEVER seen a market go up as quick as the classic/sports car market has in the last five years without a retracement. It will happen.


sone

4,585 posts

237 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
quotequote all
Cheib said:
Personally I think the market is starting to shown signs of topping out.....what you need for any market to go down is people that are forced to sell/motivated to sell. I don't think anyone has thought like that about the car market for a long time but now when I look at the car dealers websites they seem to suddenly have a lot of stock....have a look at JZM's website....they traded a huge amount of high end mostly modern Porsche's over the last few years and suddenly they have a handful of cars they want the best part of half a million quid for! Cars like 997 GT3 RS's which were selling in days now seem to be staying in stock longer....I notice they have just got a 4.0RS back in stock they sold towards the end of last year. There are certainly plenty of car dealers building big new showrooms at the moment.

In Porsche terms I think it's the people that are buying 2.4s's for £200k that need to worry rather than the guys that own 2.7 RS's. The genuine halo cars I think will be all right it's the stuff that's being bought because people can't buy the halo car that's going to take a bath.

If I had a garage with three or four cars in it that I'd owned for a while and owned the cars because I love cars I'd not be at all bothered and just enjoy the cars. I don't think I'd be rushing to buy a car right now though.

As an investment I think the car market right now is pretty risky...sure if you have owned a 2.7 RS or a Muira for 10 years you've seen a 1000% return and there's no way they are going back to that level in the early 2000's. People look at say 993 Turbo's and think they've been an great investment....they have if you bought say three years ago for £50k and can sell it now for say £90k but 993 Turbo were £50k ten years ago...if you've owned one for ten years I honestly don't think they've been that good an "investment".

Cost 2005 £50k
Sold 2015 £90K
Maintenance/Storage/Insurance £2.5k per year ? £25k.

So you've made £15 k profit on your £50k car....that's about a 2 or 3% annual return. Clearly as a car nut you've got to enjoy that car for 10 years and have great motoring for free which is fantastic but people buying these cars as investments ?

I have NEVER seen a market go up as quick as the classic/sports car market has in the last five years without a retracement. It will happen.
Perhaps the uplift in stock is partly seasonal?
Is it true what I'm hearing about China lifting the age ban on cars so that would be a huge classic car market big enough to maintain a further boom!

Slickhillsy

1,772 posts

142 months

Wednesday 28th January 2015
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sone said:
Perhaps the uplift in stock is partly seasonal?
Is it true what I'm hearing about China lifting the age ban on cars so that would be a huge classic car market big enough to maintain a further boom!
Absolutely this! Low seasonal activity for sure and the sleeping dragon that is China has been mentioned before (this is the restriction specifically on used / classic car imports)... Have to remember there is the upward trend and then the simply ridiculous 'let’s take a punt and see' prices that are out there...

I mean £495k for this???? http://www.jzmporsche.com/porsche-for-sale/911/964... and similarly priced cars at JZM were always going to hit the 'roof' most quickly than the rest of the positive trending market.

I think we have seen a slowdown in 997 GT3 prices over the last 4 months (sold my gen 1 in Sept and prices have roughly remained constant + / -), could be seasonal, could be that people have begun to say i’ll wait. Same with the Scuderia both LHD and RHD.

Again I say, define a bubble... To me a bubble means a huge / significant and quick correction (i.e. bubble bursting) and I just don’t see that happening... A correction sure as that is inevitable due to the cyclical nature of these things (not just cars) and with that prices will soften - not burst / implode...