Supercar valuations. Stick or twist?
Discussion
Cheib said:
Cars like 997 GT3 RS's which were selling in days now seem to be staying in stock longer.
I just bought a 997 GT3RS so I've been watching the classifieds for a couple of months very closely.They've been selling quickly ignoring the 4.0s which are predominantly LHD or a very high price. I know, I missed a couple because I didn't have time to go look at them.
The dark blue 3.8 with silver wheels that was up for £173k has now sold, 2 grey ones, my white one and a couple more in the last 2 weeks.
What's left?
The white one at JZM is a Hong Kong car so that might put some off (it did me). Advertised about 10 days ago.
Another blue one with what seems to be considered higher miles. Advertised less than a week ago.
There's a white one at Marque 1 again with a fair number of miles (in this territory) and not the best condition from the reports I've had in my quest to find the right one. Been on a while.
A white one with 19000 on which again, is considered high miles. Been on a while.
A few LHD ones. Not paid them attention so not sure how long they've been on.
Its academic for me because I wanted one in my collection and it'll be there for years but to say they aren't selling isn't accurate. The good ones have been selling like hot cakes and not until they've sold will the ones with higher miles, unusual origins or less than perfect paintwork sell. Why would they unless budget was the issue and at this level, for collectors and speculators, budget differences of £10-£30K are less of a concern than condition, miles or origin.
All in my opinion of course, wtf do I know!
456mgt said:
I do know what you mean Camlet, and likewise have no idea what's going to happen in the long run. Personally I can't bring myself to pay vastly more now for a car that I admired a few years ago, but didn't buy then. If I didn't pull the trigger at the time, what's changed that makes me like it 3x more now?
Like you, I regularly get offers for my cars and you do wonder what it would feel like if the values tank and you've left a great deal of cash on the table. But you'd turn something you enjoy immensely into numbers in a bank account, so unless you have something in mind to use most of that cash I'd say stick.
Points well made. Thanks.Like you, I regularly get offers for my cars and you do wonder what it would feel like if the values tank and you've left a great deal of cash on the table. But you'd turn something you enjoy immensely into numbers in a bank account, so unless you have something in mind to use most of that cash I'd say stick.
sone said:
Perhaps the uplift in stock is partly seasonal?
Is it true what I'm hearing about China lifting the age ban on cars so that would be a huge classic car market big enough to maintain a further boom!
Well that could be interesting but surely your average Chinese multi millionaire if he's got a serious car habit can already buy and house a car collection in the UK if he wants to ? After all if it's purely an investment it would make a lot more sense to keep the cars where there is the established expertise to maintain them? Our crowded roads are probably a better place to enjoy them too!Is it true what I'm hearing about China lifting the age ban on cars so that would be a huge classic car market big enough to maintain a further boom!
China was also supposed to support the paradigm shift in the Fine Wine market which it definitely did for a while but values are off something like 40% since 2011 and showing no signs of testing the heady heights of 2011 again. If they do buy it'll be very concentrated....Classic Ferrari's and not much else all about the label as it was with the wine market.
Was sent a stock update by Meridian Modena this morning, the first car listed was an '89 328 GTS, 15,000 miles (so not a true factory fresh car stored since new) wanting £130,000!!! This surely can't be worth anything like that amount, even with the value rise they have seen over the last few years, there were thousands of them made and still in existence. If there were ever a sign that the market is getting over heated, this is it. I also agree that the true halo models are unlikely to suffer in the same way as they did 25 years ago, there are far more people with truly significant amounts of actual cash with a desire to have the best, for values to be impacted very much. Anyone buying a 328 at this sort of money, particularly if financed, is in for a rather nasty surprise at some point soon in my view.
This was eye opening I thought from Talacrest
http://talacrest.com/news.asp?NewsID=404
Sold 5 reassuringly expensive Ferrari's in 8 days earlier this month!
http://talacrest.com/news.asp?NewsID=404
Sold 5 reassuringly expensive Ferrari's in 8 days earlier this month!
Cheib said:
sone said:
Perhaps the uplift in stock is partly seasonal?
Is it true what I'm hearing about China lifting the age ban on cars so that would be a huge classic car market big enough to maintain a further boom!
Well that could be interesting but surely your average Chinese multi millionaire if he's got a serious car habit can already buy and house a car collection in the UK if he wants to ? After all if it's purely an investment it would make a lot more sense to keep the cars where there is the established expertise to maintain them? Our crowded roads are probably a better place to enjoy them too!Is it true what I'm hearing about China lifting the age ban on cars so that would be a huge classic car market big enough to maintain a further boom!
China was also supposed to support the paradigm shift in the Fine Wine market which it definitely did for a while but values are off something like 40% since 2011 and showing no signs of testing the heady heights of 2011 again. If they do buy it'll be very concentrated....Classic Ferrari's and not much else all about the label as it was with the wine market.
http://flatsixes.com/cars/porsche-993/new-reality-...
This article is worth a quick read and summarises this well, highlighting the fact that 2 great car market bubbles (late 80s and muscle cars early 00s) were driven by other factors which are not at play now. While the market could be cyclical, if demand is outstripping supply, prices will increase - i.e. if there is scarcity with increasing demand, prices will increase. Therefore, increases in some models could be more sustainable than others. For example, 993 and 997 GT3s - theyre not making any more manual cars and it was limited production = demand likely to outstrip supply. Compare this to 308s and 328s as someone mentioned, there are many more "out there" so the market does look over cooked.
As _Leg_ put it very well though, while you dont want to lose a large chunk of money on a car and perhaps buy something where values have increased so much over 12-24 months, life's too short and is more fun to have something intoxicating to drive than tokens in the bank.
This article is worth a quick read and summarises this well, highlighting the fact that 2 great car market bubbles (late 80s and muscle cars early 00s) were driven by other factors which are not at play now. While the market could be cyclical, if demand is outstripping supply, prices will increase - i.e. if there is scarcity with increasing demand, prices will increase. Therefore, increases in some models could be more sustainable than others. For example, 993 and 997 GT3s - theyre not making any more manual cars and it was limited production = demand likely to outstrip supply. Compare this to 308s and 328s as someone mentioned, there are many more "out there" so the market does look over cooked.
As _Leg_ put it very well though, while you dont want to lose a large chunk of money on a car and perhaps buy something where values have increased so much over 12-24 months, life's too short and is more fun to have something intoxicating to drive than tokens in the bank.
Supply and demand, there are no more older cars being built existing cars are being reduced in numbers due to accidents etc.demand for older cars is increasing as the younger generation could not afford there dream car as they get older there income increases and they can so greater demand.
All limited build desirable cars will continue to increase in value as we are driven out of recession house prices will increase finance will ease people will remortgage to buy there dream cars - desirable cars will increase in value.
Uk house prices and the economy are on a rolling 10 year boom and bust cycle throughout history as can be seen in many charts on the internet.
Fuel prices have suddenly dropped just as the economy is leaving recession and starting to boom this adds to feel good factor helps economy recover.
As desirable car prices increase they become even more desirable as they look more expensive 996 gt3 rs most people disliked the 996 shape, now people are saying its a classic shape increase in value over the last 6 months from 50 k to 150 k
In my opinion
All limited build desirable cars will continue to increase in value as we are driven out of recession house prices will increase finance will ease people will remortgage to buy there dream cars - desirable cars will increase in value.
Uk house prices and the economy are on a rolling 10 year boom and bust cycle throughout history as can be seen in many charts on the internet.
Fuel prices have suddenly dropped just as the economy is leaving recession and starting to boom this adds to feel good factor helps economy recover.
As desirable car prices increase they become even more desirable as they look more expensive 996 gt3 rs most people disliked the 996 shape, now people are saying its a classic shape increase in value over the last 6 months from 50 k to 150 k
In my opinion
House prices in my area are up 20% over the last 12 months classic cars all seem up in price. You only have to look at the average uk house price graph to see how it works going back say 40 years. As the house prices rise people extend and improve properties adding value it's clear we are at the start of the boom fuel prices are low because the powers to be want to fuel the recovery. Can't say I can agree on any of your comments only because the statistics of the past show different.
I've much enjoyed reading your posts.
Would be grateful if you'd add your opinions to my post in the General Gassing section entitled '2015: The Bubble Bursts'.
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
Basically, I think a combination of exchange rate movements and new car registrations will end this current boom.
Thanks
Would be grateful if you'd add your opinions to my post in the General Gassing section entitled '2015: The Bubble Bursts'.
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
Basically, I think a combination of exchange rate movements and new car registrations will end this current boom.
Thanks
Edited by 355Chris355 on Sunday 1st February 23:04
TurboTerrific9 said:
I hope you're right - for all our sakes.
In 2014 House prices were up between 7.2-8.2pct on average across the UK (depending on whose official data used), obviously being an average some were up much more eg St Albans 24pct.
However the level of house price growth fell consequetively during the last four months of the year. London house prices were stagnant to lower in Dec.
I'm not a calling the end of the run up in the prices of the cars we love, they can keep rising for some time.
I am convinced that the correction will effect some segments of the market more than others - ferrari Dino's are beautiful cars but Half a million Dollars????
How many people buy a new house on the run up to Christmas. Opinions have changed on the Dino In 2014 House prices were up between 7.2-8.2pct on average across the UK (depending on whose official data used), obviously being an average some were up much more eg St Albans 24pct.
However the level of house price growth fell consequetively during the last four months of the year. London house prices were stagnant to lower in Dec.
I'm not a calling the end of the run up in the prices of the cars we love, they can keep rising for some time.
I am convinced that the correction will effect some segments of the market more than others - ferrari Dino's are beautiful cars but Half a million Dollars????
Up here in North Wales house prices haven't really moved in the past 12-18 months unless you look at those under the old 1% Stamp threshold, even then there has only been a small % increase of 1-3%.
I was spending quite a bit of time at a company in Burnley and much the same story. No signs of recovery up here in the n'orf and stagnant wages across SME's as well as a lot of public servants / NHS (still) not receiving anything close to inflation.
For example Wales has shown an average house price increase of £150k - £171k (14%) since 2010 (ONS), England £214k-£283k (32%) yet London £335k - £501K (49%). Not to further elaborate on the N / S divide but surely the strong housing market down south can prop up a classic car boom as people can use the equity on their homes to purchase what they want, so maybe a correction in the housing market will elad to a correction in exotica, or vice versa as people may open them selves up to negative equity on their car (in terms of what they've borrowed vs the house).
In my opinion and it echo's what others have said, the true halo cars will always remain a Holy Grail to the lucky (not in terms of how they made their money) 0.01% who can afford them, yet those who overreach and finance the 'lesser' models will be hardest hit.
But I know nothing and just enjoy a good waffle / ramble.
I was spending quite a bit of time at a company in Burnley and much the same story. No signs of recovery up here in the n'orf and stagnant wages across SME's as well as a lot of public servants / NHS (still) not receiving anything close to inflation.
For example Wales has shown an average house price increase of £150k - £171k (14%) since 2010 (ONS), England £214k-£283k (32%) yet London £335k - £501K (49%). Not to further elaborate on the N / S divide but surely the strong housing market down south can prop up a classic car boom as people can use the equity on their homes to purchase what they want, so maybe a correction in the housing market will elad to a correction in exotica, or vice versa as people may open them selves up to negative equity on their car (in terms of what they've borrowed vs the house).
In my opinion and it echo's what others have said, the true halo cars will always remain a Holy Grail to the lucky (not in terms of how they made their money) 0.01% who can afford them, yet those who overreach and finance the 'lesser' models will be hardest hit.
But I know nothing and just enjoy a good waffle / ramble.
gt2russ said:
TurboTerrific9 said:
I hope you're right - for all our sakes.
In 2014 House prices were up between 7.2-8.2pct on average across the UK (depending on whose official data used), obviously being an average some were up much more eg St Albans 24pct.
However the level of house price growth fell consequetively during the last four months of the year. London house prices were stagnant to lower in Dec.
I'm not a calling the end of the run up in the prices of the cars we love, they can keep rising for some time.
I am convinced that the correction will effect some segments of the market more than others - ferrari Dino's are beautiful cars but Half a million Dollars????
How many people buy a new house on the run up to Christmas. Opinions have changed on the Dino In 2014 House prices were up between 7.2-8.2pct on average across the UK (depending on whose official data used), obviously being an average some were up much more eg St Albans 24pct.
However the level of house price growth fell consequetively during the last four months of the year. London house prices were stagnant to lower in Dec.
I'm not a calling the end of the run up in the prices of the cars we love, they can keep rising for some time.
I am convinced that the correction will effect some segments of the market more than others - ferrari Dino's are beautiful cars but Half a million Dollars????
Interesting thread!
I do think the market is getting a little silly
Eg in one small corner of the Ferrari market that I keep an eye on, one guy sold a 365GT4 that he bought for £15k for £60k at auction and now two dealers have 412GTs (similar shape, but 15 years between them) for £60k and £70k respectively...having had similar cars for £30k before Christmas! They both have lovely cars, but the value is debatable.
All of this ends up a bit like houses: buy what you like, enjoy it, and hope at some point you land in a better state financially!
I do think the market is getting a little silly
Eg in one small corner of the Ferrari market that I keep an eye on, one guy sold a 365GT4 that he bought for £15k for £60k at auction and now two dealers have 412GTs (similar shape, but 15 years between them) for £60k and £70k respectively...having had similar cars for £30k before Christmas! They both have lovely cars, but the value is debatable.
All of this ends up a bit like houses: buy what you like, enjoy it, and hope at some point you land in a better state financially!
NickKerigan said:
Interesting thread!
I do think the market is getting a little silly
Eg in one small corner of the Ferrari market that I keep an eye on, one guy sold a 365GT4 that he bought for £15k for £60k at auction and now two dealers have 412GTs (similar shape, but 15 years between them) for £60k and £70k respectively...having had similar cars for £30k before Christmas! They both have lovely cars, but the value is debatable.
All of this ends up a bit like houses: buy what you like, enjoy it, and hope at some point you land in a better state financially!
I do think the market is getting a little silly
Eg in one small corner of the Ferrari market that I keep an eye on, one guy sold a 365GT4 that he bought for £15k for £60k at auction and now two dealers have 412GTs (similar shape, but 15 years between them) for £60k and £70k respectively...having had similar cars for £30k before Christmas! They both have lovely cars, but the value is debatable.
All of this ends up a bit like houses: buy what you like, enjoy it, and hope at some point you land in a better state financially!
A model that came 18th in the BBC's 'Book Of Crap Cars'. IMHO only the Mondial comes close in the FUGLY stakes...
456mgt said:
I do know what you mean Camlet, and likewise have no idea what's going to happen in the long run. Personally I can't bring myself to pay vastly more now for a car that I admired a few years ago, but didn't buy then. If I didn't pull the trigger at the time, what's changed that makes me like it 3x more now?
What's changed? I'll tell you what's changed. You're about 300x richer!
ETA: And actually Camlet/456MGT, if someone's personal circumstances change enough (and that need not be material gain - it could be some other life changing event good OR bad), something that once looked ludicrously priced, seems cheap as chips. And I'm being serious here....for once!
Edited by Murcielago_Boy on Wednesday 4th February 15:32
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