Buying wisely and cars as investments

[FFM]

tuscaneer said:

sorry pal, you're quite right, i didn't factor in scuds.....i'm surprised at those vantage numbers...WAY lower than i had figured. i didn't realize production dropped off so rapidly.
my only complaint with mine was a lack of oomph (4.3).....i'd like to try a 4.7. i can feel i'm getting sucked back in here!!

I guess the same would have happened to 599GTBs production, post 2008-events, too?

[tuscaneer]

FFM said:

I guess the same would have happened to 599GTBs production, post 2008-events, too?

probably EVERYTHING in the high end sports car market thinking about it!

as an aside, have you seen the prices of 599 gto's

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/f...


http://www.redlinespecialistcars.co.uk/used-cars

[bentley01]

cgt2 said:

I agree they are great value but I always thought a factor in this with Astons was their build quality and electrics. Even by Ferrari standards they seem particularly unreliable.

A friend turned up about a year ago with a brand new Vantage. Gave me the keys and said to take it for a spin. Long story short there was an electrical issue and the car refused to start. Quite embarrassing for my friend.

Sorry I don't agree. I have had no problems at all with the Astons I have owned over the last five years.

[cgt2]

bentley01 said:

Sorry I don't agree. I have had no problems at all with the Astons I have owned over the last five years.

I have never owned one so I was referring to my experience of trying to drive one. Another friend has had a few electrical issues but he owns a 2006 Vantage. I would imagine build quality has improved in recent years, the paint and finish on the one I saw was excellent.

[rubystone]

FFM said:

Guess you've never visited AM Works (i.e. AM Heritage centre)? Well if you had done so, I am sure you wouldn't have written that. There are many AM collectors out there from different countries that surely won't agree with your statement, too.

..but, I bet you did your own research before giving such insightful advices, didn't you? Maybe, you could have shared a bit of that with us..

I'm guessing he meant Gaydon products. And I wouldn't necessarily argue with him on that. I'm sure most of us are fed up with the limited editions that pour out of that place.

My issue with the limited edition cars as investments is the 'investor' is at the mercy of the manufacturer. There's nothing to stop the manufacturer bringing out another limited edition car (or worst still a mainstream car) to the same spec as the previous limited edition.

Imagine if Porsche decided to brIng out a 911RT - exactly the same spec as the 911R but with a ducktail and different trim and to produce it on an unlimited basis, what would that do the current £500k plus values for RHD 911Rs?

430s jumped 30% last year. Why? Because speculators were looking for the next money spinner. It follows therefore that if the bubble bursts, someone holding a 430 F1 should expect the value of that car to correct to somewhere near £70k. It's not a limited edition, it's not a manual version and chances are that a depression in the value of 458s might encourage 430 owners to trade up.

[Keano81]

Bought a Gallardo LP sypder 2 years back and looking at the prices I would expect to get back around what I paid which is not something I expected when I purchased thanks mainly to the higher Hurracan prices.

What are peoples thoughts about the Aventador SV? At the moment £400k for a hardtop. Its certainly in demand and rare. Would it be a safer place to put your money than a standard Aventador for 250k?

Looking at the previous model, Murcis can be had for 120k but the Murci SV's command a minimum 325k

[Atomic12C]

rubystone said:

chances are that a depression in the value of 458s might encourage 430 owners to trade up.

My view is that this effect comes from a demand much further down the line.
For example, if Mr.A can not afford the jump from Focus ST to Mr.B's BMW M4. Then Mr.B may not afford to then go out and buy Mr.C's F360.
Mr.C then doesn't trade up and buy the F430...... and so on.

So as the 2nd hand performance car market has seen quick gains over the past few years I think all the 'investment' in them has been made.
Because from people I've been speaking to it would seem the gap between the low and higher ends of the market has stretched beyond the affordability of those that prop up the means for those further up to 'trade up'.

A correction may come sooner rather than later for many models.

[andrew]

Keano81 said:

Bought a Gallardo LP sypder 2 years back and looking at the prices I would expect to get back around what I paid which is not something I expected when I purchased thanks mainly to the higher Hurracan prices.

What are peoples thoughts about the Aventador SV? At the moment £400k for a hardtop. Its certainly in demand and rare. Would it be a safer place to put your money than a standard Aventador for 250k?

Looking at the previous model, Murcis can be had for 120k but the Murci SV's command a minimum 325k

msv came out at a time when sant-agata were struggling to sell cars : allegedly selling less than the planned 350

asv has sold rather more, then there are the roadsters...

[cgt2]

Atomic12C said:

My view is that this effect comes from a demand much further down the line.
For example, if Mr.A can not afford the jump from Focus ST to Mr.B's BMW M4. Then Mr.B may not afford to then go out and buy Mr.C's F360.
Mr.C then doesn't trade up and buy the F430...... and so on.

So as the 2nd hand performance car market has seen quick gains over the past few years I think all the 'investment' in them has been made.
Because from people I've been speaking to it would seem the gap between the low and higher ends of the market has stretched beyond the affordability of those that prop up the means for those further up to 'trade up'.

A correction may come sooner rather than later for many models.

I've just sold a three year old Porsche in absolutely mint condition back to a dealer today.

It was 15% cheaper than the nearest advertised dealer car, with higher spec, freshly major serviced, freshly MOT'd and with not a single mark on the bodywork or wheels.

In over a month not one viewing or one single serious enquiry. The best of two trade bids was only £1000 adrift of my private price so cut my losses.

Things definitely seem very quiet indeed at the moment.

[TP321]

cgt2 said:

I've just sold a three year old Porsche in absolutely mint condition back to a dealer today.

It was 15% cheaper than the nearest advertised dealer car, with higher spec, freshly major serviced, freshly MOT'd and with not a single mark on the bodywork or wheels.

In over a month not one viewing or one single serious enquiry. The best of two trade bids was only £1000 adrift of my private price so cut my losses.

Things definitely seem very quiet indeed at the moment.

Not quite sure if i understand what you are trying to say without spelling out the figures, but i agree that nothing seems to be selling at the moment. The prices however dont appear to be budging, but i think as we get into Sept/Oct we should see a major correction in those looking to actually sell.

It never fails to amaze me how dealer £100k+ cars are immune to depreciation even after 4 months of sitting around...

[Durzel]

TP321 said:

Not quite sure if i understand what you are trying to say without spelling out the figures, but i agree that nothing seems to be selling at the moment. The prices however dont appear to be budging, but i think as we get into Sept/Oct we should see a major correction in those looking to actually sell.

It never fails to amaze me how dealer £100k+ cars are immune to depreciation even after 4 months of sitting around...

I guess some of that is down to the marques wanting to manage the prices? On the face of it it does seem strange that main dealers are seemingly happy to have stock sitting around with the price not moving even slightly.

My experience is limited only to Ferrari but the stuff I've seen in main dealers never seems to drop in price at all, it simply disappears (eventually) from sale if sold. I guess as usual there are deals to be done behind closed doors, but as far as the general public are concerned the prices don't seem to ever change?

[WCZ]

andrew said:

msv came out at a time when sant-agata were struggling to sell cars : allegedly selling less than the planned 350

asv has sold rather more, then there are the roadsters...

also there's going to be a gen 2 asv, so I here
msv much better buy imo

[The Surveyor]

Durzel said:

TP321 said:

Not quite sure if i understand what you are trying to say without spelling out the figures, but i agree that nothing seems to be selling at the moment. The prices however dont appear to be budging, but i think as we get into Sept/Oct we should see a major correction in those looking to actually sell.

It never fails to amaze me how dealer £100k+ cars are immune to depreciation even after 4 months of sitting around...

I guess some of that is down to the marques wanting to manage the prices? On the face of it it does seem strange that main dealers are seemingly happy to have stock sitting around with the price not moving even slightly.

My experience is limited only to Ferrari but the stuff I've seen in main dealers never seems to drop in price at all, it simply disappears (eventually) from sale if sold. I guess as usual there are deals to be done behind closed doors, but as far as the general public are concerned the prices don't seem to ever change?

Specialist cars by their nature won't have mass-market appeal meaning that it may take 6 months plus for a buyer to be found, added to the fact that some of the stock will be on SOR where the vendor isn't looking for a quick sale, then cars will stay around for a while without any drop in price. That's if the prices are published at all, with the frustrating 'Price on Application' being used by a lot of top-end dealers so mask both the asking price and market trends.

I'd say if a top-end car sold within a month or so it was too cheap.

[acr_nick]

It's more than likely the majority of cars at a dealer are sor so yes the price won't go down even if it sits in the showroom 6 months. Unless a seller is very motivated to sell but then they usually just px or get a trade bid for the car. seeing as the upswing in people putting their money into cars expecting to sell 6-12 months later for £25k more, sellers will just sit and wait for the asking price. Look how many 458 speciale adverts there are on ph, lhd £240k cheapest all the way up to £400k for a rhd. Too many on the market and then prices might start moving but it's getting closer to the slow season for car purchasing, and factor in the current pound problems. I would expect the limited number cars to be better off if there is a bubble burst but the big drop will hit stuff like a 360, 430 anything that was under 100k that is all of a sudden 50k more.

[phib]

Generally unless you are lucky I think guessing the market is hopeless !!

Had my 355 9 years, it went down and its now gone up
My 550 has just gone up
GT2 was sold at 2 years old for something like 70k paid £100 I think
993's I have always made money on, even the first one I had that I did 80k in

The best was my old 2.7rs lightweight which went up 20 times in the space of 5 years (including an £80k rebuild which now looks cheap!!)

However my dad had some good and bad ones too

Swapped a genuine cobra + cash for an new XJS ( late 70's)

But bought a new F40 and flipped it for £1.1m pre crash.

My only summary is that I believe older manual Ferrari's and special editions will stay up (probably fall 10% when market corrects)
80's / 90's hyped stuff will fall back loads
Mclaren's will continue to depreciate as their technology continues at pace no one really seems to want the older ones (relatively)

If I wanted to collect / not drive I would buy old Ferraris, If I wanted to drive I would buy McLaren or newish Ferrari

All just in my humble opinion !!!

Phib

[Jon666]

What I just can't get my head around are the people who've had Speciale/RS/675lt for sale for months. Do they not get it, it's so simple, these cars are ultra desirable...it your car isn't selling the price is too high. 400k Speciales and 675lts have never existed other than on Pistonheads classified pages!

[Atomic12C]

phib said:

If I wanted to collect / not drive I would buy old Ferraris, If I wanted to drive I would buy McLaren or newish Ferrari

Must be some truth in that
I bought my 12C to drive, the thought of it just as an investment never crossed my mind.

Life is just too short to have cars stuck inside garages doing nothing more than having a hypothetical variable value on them.


As the 2nd hand market for such cars (and even those further down the chain - no disrespect intended), have reached a point whereby one link in the chain is unable to trade-up to the next, I am wondering what will be the final trigger that will cause the correction (or even a bubble burst).

At the moment from comments on here and speaking to others, people seem to be happy just to hold on and keep with what they've got. In effect attempting to hold prices as they are.
But something such as the pound or future interest rate rises may be what is needed to get the market 'moving' again.
Brexit conditions will no doubt play a big hand.

But final point is that I still think buying a car now for an investment may not be wise. (Unless as mentioned, you are able to buy the super rare, as they are in their own market).

[Ferruccio]

Atomic12C said:

I am wondering what will be the final trigger that will cause the correction (or even a bubble burst).

At the moment from comments on here and speaking to others, people seem to be happy just to hold on and keep with what they've got. In effect attempting to hold prices as they are.

I believe that you go on to answer your own question.
It'll be more sellers than buyers.
For a few cars, we already seem to be there?

[dang2407]

Long-term, the killer for Supercars, as we know them, will be when driver-less and electric cars become main-stream, and conventional petrol engine cars will be taxed off the roads by the Greenies. Hopefully all this is at least 15 to 20 years away. Before, who knows.... Personally speaking, I've got a bit of a shopping list so I'm hoping for the burst to happen soon

[TP321]

phib said:

Mclaren's will continue to depreciate as their technology continues at pace no one really seems to want the older ones (relatively)

Phib

I think this is very true, and you can already see it happening with the lesser 570s receiving far more positive comments than the 12C. Also Mclaren is introducing too many models/variations too quickly. It will be interesting to see what will happen to these £370k 675lts when the new P14 arrives in a years time, as it will not only be more powerfull, but could also be faster...and cheaper!

Also why are LHD Speciales so much cheaper than RHD? Something not right there....